great SYSTEM for MNF (my play of the week)

[w365]

it's also my strongest play YTD.

phi +7

system: play on the road dog getting anything between 2 and 10.5 pts if they won as home favorites last week and their opponent won as road favorite of 2.5+ last week and if they won the previous head-to-head matchup as underdog. 16-0 ATS.

the eagles are the road dog of +7 points, and they won last week as home favorite while Dallas won as a road fave of more than 2.5 pts. philladelphia won as the underdog last time they played against dallas.

this system is good as long as the dog (Eagles) has not been favored by more than 6.5 in the previous head-to head matchup. (32-8 ats)

more systems, trends and a writeup shortly.

 

[crzbrave]

bol :toast:

 

[w365]

play on road dogs of 3-10 pts if they allowed 10 pts or less in their last game as well as in their last hth matchup. 32-10.
and if their opponent allowed 13 pts or less in its previous game, the system is 10-0.

 

[jdigae01]

yeah but lets not forget that team they beat in week 1 is flat out horrible.

 

[parlayin]

you know a trend is good when its explained in a super long sentence with many "ifs" and "ands"

 

[Jetplane]

w365... I've always believed in your plays even though I never play them. I'm in a degenerate mood and I'm laying the biggest play of the year on this. Don't lemme down lol! If I lose (which isn't ur fault cuz I like the game anyway)... I'm probably gonna stay away from football and only take action. This is ridiculous for me this week going something like 8-3 and losing f*cking money.

 

[w365]

Interesting MONDAY NIGHT system...


NFC East MNF road dogs are 13-1 ATS in last 12 years against divisional foes. The Eagles are 3-0 ATS in this spot and Dallas is 0-5 ATS (as fave)

THE UNDERDOG HAS COVERED IN 6 OF LAST 7 IN DAL/PHI MATCHUP.


The Philladelphia Eagles should improve the most (record wise), as I stated earlier this season. Last season Westbrook was questionable almost every week but stil played hard thru the injuries, McNabb was incosistent, especially early in the season, and Reid had probably the worst week of his life going into their loss against Dallas (family issues and then a humiliating loss against the Cowboys).

However, they stil won their final three games of the season, twice as underdogs, including their stunning revenge win at Dallas. Overall they won 4 games as underdogs last season (5-1 ATS),covered and almost won @ New England as 24 pts underdogs while compiling a 3-7 ATS record as favorites. They covered their final 6 road games.

Then they played McNabb significant minutes in first three preseason games and he went 34/54 for 375 yards with 2 TD and no interceptions.

Finally, he went 21/33 for 361 yards with 3 TD and no interceptions in the season opener last week. What's even more impressive in that win, is that Westbrook had only two catches and that guys like Jackson, Lewis, Baskett, Avant and Smith got the job done. Their defense was perfect, allowing STL to score their first and only points in the fourth quarter when the score was 38-0. STL only had 8 first downs in that game. These same Rams were down only by 7 pts against the Giants early in the 4th quarter this week. Dallas had an easy job against Cleveland in week 1, but we have seen how bad that Cleveland offense is right now. They closed their 2007 campaign with 42 pts combined in their final three games and they started this season with 16 pts combined in first two games.

The Eagles had 5 losses of 4 pts or less last season despite all of their problems that occured last year. They are going in the right direction now and I will not be surprised if they win this game outright. The T.O. saga is behind them now and even the medias knows that. The guy who had 10 receptions for 174 yards in his first game vs PHI after the incident, had only 2 receptions for 37 yards in his second game vs his former team. Romo has thrown 4 TD's and 8 Int's in all of his starts since his loss to the Eagles on 12/16/2007. He has not thrown more than one TD since then, nor has he thrown more TD's than Int's in any of his games since that loss, not even in his impressive win @ Cleveland last week.

 

[gr8whtnorth]

Good Luck!

Looks good!

 

[TheChief+]

I'm not one to bash systems and trends, but yesterday the whole world was writing up analyses about how stats overwhelmingly point to the Lions as the play of the day. And they lost miserably in the end. I rode 2 units to the bank on that one.

Trends mean nothing here, especially against a fired up Cowboys team that has a lot to prove and is at home feeling good after a great Week 1 showing.

 

[w365]

Since taking over this team, Reid has led the Eagles to a 37-24 ATS record vs their divisional foes, including a 16-6 ATS record when underdogs of 3 pts or more. Under his tenure the Eagles are one of the best road teams in the NFL and a very good MNF team.

Dallas has a good coach (not great) and that is not a secret. However, the Cowboys tend to play bad against divisional opponents >.500. Nobody seems to be able to correct that, not even W.Phillips. They are 6-15 SU and 4-17 ATS vs NFC East teams over .500. Last season they were 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in this spot. They are only covering as big dogs in this spot (2-2 ATS as 7+ dogs) and they can not get the job done as long as they are laying a field goal or more (0-8 ATS).

The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS in last 11 MNF games when favored, including a 0-6 ATS streak since 1999 and a non cover last year at Buffalo when they almost lost the game outright as the 10 pts faves. They trailed by 11 after three quarters of play in that game.

 

[w365]

Both teams played against weak opponents in week 1, but Philladelphia did a much better job fighting for the field position. They completely dominated that aspect of the game against the Rams, having a field shorter by 16 yds on average per offensive possession. The Cowbows needed 10 plays to score three of their four touchdowns vs Cleveland as they were not able to win the field position against the Browns.

Dallas recorded just one sack against Cleveland and the Browns were able to run for 5.1 yards per carry against them. The Browns did not lose the ball on a turnover against Dallas. These same Browns were sacked twice, commited two turnovers and rushed 2.1 yards per carry last night vs PIT.

The last time T.Romo faced this Eagles defense, he was sacked 4 times, completed 13 of 36 passes with 0 TD's and 3 interceptions. The Cowboys were able to run for 53 yds on 15 carries. He was much better in his first start vs PHI but overall in his short career his numbers against the Eagles defense are not good. 4 TD's and 6 Int, sacked 7 times, 47/90 (52.22%).

The Eagles have not been outgained by anyone since 12/09/2007. That's 4 regular season games and 4 preseason games. They've been held to under 300 yards of offense only twice in last ten vs Dallas. Dallas has been held to under 300 yards of offense 6 times in last 10 vs PHI. Dallas is 1-21 ats in last 22 when favored by 6.5+ if they don't outgain the opp.

MNF favs in week 2 are 1-8 ATS against divisional foes.

In last 10 years, home favs of 6+ pts are 5-17 ATS after a covering road fave win against a team off a covering home fave win.

Patriots were in this spot last year against the Eagles and won by only 3 as 24 pts favorites.

The Giants were in this spot last year as well, when they lost 17:41 as 7 pts favorites vs Minnesota.

 

[w365]

The Eagles have never been scared going on the road and facing a better team (on paper) with a good offense. Since A.R. got the coaching job in Philly, the Eagles are 9-1 ATS as road dogs against a team that scored at least 27 pts previous week. They also won outright in 5 out of last 6 games in this spot including the trips to Dallas and NO last year.

Dallas and their powerfull offense seem to be shitting their beds any time they are favored against a team with a hot defense. They are 1-10 ats in last 11 when favored by 6+ against a team that allowed 10 pts or less the week before.

 

[Jetplane]

please please please be right lol > my last bet depends on it! last for the day that is lol

 

[Mikeyz450]

I'm not one to bash systems and trends, but yesterday the whole world was writing up analyses about how stats overwhelmingly point to the Lions as the play of the day. And they lost miserably in the end. I rode 2 units to the bank on that one.

Trends mean nothing here, especially against a fired up Cowboys team that has a lot to prove and is at home feeling good after a great Week 1 showing.

I agree. I just bet in the "Now" not well this happen that happened. I did take GB -3. .
I havent seen either team play this year (DAL, PHL) so im staying away from this one. there is to many other easier games to bet on then stress myself over this one imo

 

[knowthegame]

Good Luck with the play.

 

[rolltide]

one more Philly trend...

8:35 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
After gaining 460+ yards, underdogs have had tremendous confidence against division opponents.

Play ON a division underdog with a TOTAL of 47 points or less off a
conference game gaining 460+ yards last week.
SU: 10-4 ATS: 14-0

YEAR GM DAY TEAM OPP ST LINE SCORE SU MRG ATS MRG
1996 14 SUN BAL PIT H +4' 31-17 W 14 W +18'
1997 10 SUN SEA DEN A +9 27-30 L -3 W +6
1998 12 SUN ARZ WAS A +1 45-42 W 3 W +4
1998 15 SUN NYJ MIA A +3 21-16 W 5 W +8
1999 2 SUN WAS NYG A +2 50-21 W 29 W +31
1999 6 SUN MIA NE A +3 31-30 W 1 W +4
2000 5 SUN IND BUF A +2 18-16 W 2 W +4
2000 6 SUN PHI WAS H +3' 14-17 L -3 W +0'
2001 12 THUR DET GB H +6 27-29 L -2 W +4
2001 18 SUN CIN TEN A +5' 23-21 W 2 W +7'
2002 6 SUN KC SD A +3' 34-35 L -1 W +2'
2002 7 SUN SD RAI A +7 27-21 W 6 W +13
2004 13 SUN CIN BAL A +6 27-26 W 1 W +7
2006 3 SUN CIN PIT A +2 28-20 W 8 W +10

 

[Soprano]

GL with your play w365!!!

All stats point to Philly and the Public and Touts agree.

 

[w365]

good luck boys

 

[Soprano]

Careful with this play. Everything points to Phillly and it looks too easy.

 

[core42]

Careful with this play. Everything points to Phillly and it looks too easy.

Yes but the touts and public win also....bookies don't win them all.
Sometimes the obvious play IS the right play...too many people try to be super sharp & find that tiny edge to fade the public when the truth was hitting them in the face.....w365 & aiverson are on Philly so that's all I need to know.