YES, IT’S TRUE. You were given no BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. You also weren’t given a Bowl Totals Play of the Year, Bowl Rematch Game of the Year, Underdog Game of the Year, Double Barrel 100* Interconference Mortal Lock of the Year, or any of the other ridiculous Game of the Year or Game of the Month titles given to other services plays. There is a reason for this seemingly glaring omission. I am a professional level handicapper, not a marketing executive or an impulse psychologist. While some will tell you that in the BUSINESS OF GAMBLING these three things need to hold hands, I disagree. My purpose should be to provide you with well-informed and extensively researched information and, hopefully, to pick winners. In the arena of TRUE professional level handicapping there is no place for GAME OF THE YEARS because the title itself implies a staggered rate betting system, and you know how we feel about that!!! Why not offer a bowl GOY or bowl GOW? The explanation is simple, because they offer no extra value and the premise behind them is flawed. Let me explain. In any event where there are only two possible outcomes (a 50/50 proposition) every event is independent of itself. This means that if I like Clemson +5 and TCU +10, one outcome is not more likely to occur (mathematically speaking) than the other. There are only two possible results, my team covers the spread or they do not, I win or I lose (we’ll discount ties for the sake of argument). With good handicapping, expert knowledge of the sport, etc. you CAN gain an advantage over the long haul versus the line, but in a ONE GAME SITUATION you are more open to the effects of binomial distribution (random chance) and anything can happen. So, to exceedingly overvalue one play, like a GOY or a GOM, results in two negative situations. It overexposes your bankroll to random chance (because that’s what GOY’s are for – to bet more on!) and it devalues the rest of your plays. In a sample weekend, if you lose your 10* GOY but win your three 2* plays, you’ve still lost money for the week. You might as well have not even played the 2* games because in the end they did not matter. In the same sample weekend, the same applies if you win your 10* GOY. If you lose the three 2* games all you’ve done is taken away from your big win, so it would have been best just not to play the 2* games at all. At the end of the day, when you tally up the 2* wins and loses they’ll have been irrelevant as to whether or not you won or lost money!!!
There are three main reasons why other services offer and promote Game of the Year’s and Game of the Month’s.
1) To capitalize financially from a “hot streak” and to capitalize financially period
2) As an eye catcher, implying to customers that they have a can’t lose sure thing
3) To play catch-up during losing seasons
Let’s examine each reason and do some exposing of the GOY and GOM scam.
1) Have you ever noticed when services release their Game of the Year plays? Have you ever seen someone release their college GOY in week 3 of the season? We didn’t think so, and there are simple explanations as to why. First, every service is out to sell their picks and pick packages, with the most important being the season package. If services offered their college GOY in week 3 it would devalue their season packages. Those that had already purchased season packages would have nothing left to look forward to, the season would just seem like it was on a downhill slide, and what new customer would sign up for a season package that had already released it’s GOY? Secondly, if you lose your college GOY in week 3, you could potentially lose a lot of clients and profit. Winning your GOY in week 3 does not help you (you’re supposed to win it, it’s your GOY for pete’s sake) as much as losing it (this guy cost me money!!!) hurts you. For these reasons, and others, most services choose to offer their GOY’s late in the schedule after a “hot” week. Have you ever seen a service advertise, “coming off of a 1-6 week last week, but our Game of the Year goes this weekend!!!” NO!?! How about this, “Absolutely ON FIRE, 10-3 ATS over the last two weeks and our Game of the Year goes this weekend, grab this can’t lose winner now!!!” Offering a GOY after a “hot” streak ensconces confidence in the consumer and places them under the assumption that if a particular handicapper is “hot” he is even more likely to win his favorite play of the year. With every game being an independent event, that assumption is just not true. Also, remember, services are trying to capitalize financially from releasing these GOY’s, so they all sell these games for a higher price than a normal pick or play. After a winning streak, their websites get more hits, they receive more 900 calls, and, in general, more potential clients become interested in their services. Therefore, any extra profits that are possible from the gaining of new clients are doubled by charging more for their GOY at that time. SERVICES OFFER THEIR GAME OF THE YEAR SELECTIONS AT THE MOST FINANCIALLY OPPORTUNE TIMES NOT NECESSARILY ON THE MOST FINANCIALLY OPPORTUNE GAMES!!! Many professional handicappers don’t even bet on their own GOY’s , they just release them because the time is right. In addition, almost any gambler (even some amateurs) can tell you that the Vegas lines get tighter as the season moves along. If you are a well prepared professional level handicapper, why not release your GOY in week #1 or week #2 when the lines are softer and Vegas is less prepared? Because, there is no money in it and it doesn’t benefit THEM to do so.
2) GOY advertisements and touts are eye-catchers. The average bettor has been conditioned to believe in and to look for these GOY plays, and when they see them they begin to salivate like Pavlovian dogs in a bell shop!!! I once had a highly respected professional handicapper make the point (and a good one), “If I offer a pick package for $25 that includes four plays and my COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR, and you offer a package for the same $25 that includes four “normal” plays, which package do you think the average Joe is going to buy?” Sadly, he is correct. In addition, these GOY’s are offered because they imply to the public that they are can’t lose games, a sure thing, a lock. This is another reason why these games are offered late in the season as opposed to early. As the season moves along, more and more amateur gamblers begin to lose money and get in a hole financially. As the losses mount and their funds dry up, they begin to look for a way to quickly recoup their losses. A professional handicapper’s GOY seems like a surefire way to do just that. An amateur gambler who is down (or maybe even up) only a little in week 3, isn’t very likely to purchase a GOY because he still believes that he can secure a profit using his own information and plays. However, that same amateur in week 12 who is down a couple of thousand dollars is much more susceptible and open to outside influence.
3) Services and handicappers will use GOY’s to play catch up or to try to make up for low winning percentages. In my goals (opening article) I state that I expect to win between 55-59% of my plays each year. This is a very respectable winning percentage and enough to secure a nice profit over a high enough number of plays. One way to offset a low winning percentage or a losing year is to use GOY’s at the end of a season. One 10* GOY winner can offset 10 different 1* losers, or secure enough of a profit to make up for an entire month of losing. Also, offering and winning GOY plays allows that particular handicapper to tout that he won his “big play”, instead of focusing on the fact that he may have had a poor season overall. The GOY and GOM plays are just another way to compartmentalize picks (see opening article). Let’s examine how a professional handicapper may use a GOY to play catch up. A few seasons ago, a very well known, high profile professional handicapper (we’ll call him ML) made use of the GOY catch up scam. In this particular season, ML had his season clients down about $3,600 (not including the $1,000 to $1,200 that he charged for the package to begin with) with only a couple of weeks remaining in the college season. Amazingly, in one of the last weeks he released not ONE but TWO 10* GOY plays on the same weekend. Why do this? Why not, it could only help him. If he hits both GOY’s he picks up 20 units for the year and can then tout that he went 2-0 ATS on his GOY’s instead of focusing on his horrible overall winning percentage or the fact that he lost money for his clients on an almost weekly basis. If he loses both games, who cares. He was already having a disastrous season and losing one or both of those games wouldn’t have made it that much worse. Regardless, all anyone would remember was that he had a very poor season. In offering the two 10* GOY plays, ML put himself in a no lose situation. LOSE, who cares. WIN and crawl back to even while gaining tout material. Do you honestly believe that any of his season clients, who had been losing on a weekly basis and were down almost $5,000, actually bet 10 units apiece on each of those two games. Would you have? NO WAY!!! As it happened, ML did win both 10* plays and crawled back to just above EVEN for the season, despite his low winning percentage. Perfect!!!
I know some of you may doubt my theories regarding GOY’s, GOM’s, 5* GOW, etc. You may doubt that they are no different from “normal” plays and that you are no more likely to win a GOY or GOM than you are any other of your wagers. So, let’s take a look at some numbers and see how my theories work out. The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City (www.thesportsmonitor.com) is a national monitoring service (the most reputable in the industry) that tracks the records of some of the nation’s most high profile handicappers, Phil Steele and Marc Lawrence, among others. This year they tracked the results of 117 different services over the course of the college football season, AAVALONSPORTS.COM included, so I decided to conduct an experiment and the results will be revealed here. Now, if you are a believer in the GOY, GOM, 7* interconference underdog play of the year, AFC GOY, picks; then certainly you would expect for a professional level handicapper to win most of these plays, or at least have a higher winning percentage among these plays than among his average plays. Among handicappers who were having a winning season, this high winning percentage on their “top plays” should be even more pronounced, right??? Let’s see!!! Of the 117 services monitored by The Sports Monitor in college football this season, only 32 finished with a winning percentage of 54% or higher (we are happy to be one of them!). So, let’s use the 32 services who had outstanding years to conduct our experiment. Of the 32 services who had winning percentages of higher than 54%, 30 turned in plays to The Sports Monitor that they rated as “TOP PLAYS” (GOY, GOM, AFC GOW, etc.). Results, 18 OF THE 30 SERVICES HAD A LOWER WINNING PERCENTAGE ON THEIR “TOP PLAYS” THAN THEY DID OVERALL!!! What does this mean? It means, that most of the 32 winning services had a higher winning percentage on their “average” plays than on their supposed “Top Plays”. It means, that of the services that had solid winning seasons 60% of them lowered their winning percentage by offering these highly rated plays. WOW!!! The best part is that these GOY-GOM plays are the ones that cost much more to purchase and you were supposed to have bet more on. Our experiment was to see how our own “top plays” would have done, so over the course of the college football seasons we labeled 10 picks “TOP PLAYS” when we submitted them to The Sports Monitor. Our results on the 10 plays; 5 wins, 5 loses (50%). Our overall winning percentage for the year, 54.10%. We fared worse on our supposed “top plays” than we did overall!!! In addition, two of the services that finished with winning percentages above 54% actually lost money for their clients and had a losing season (-$1,000 and -$1,200) because they faired so poorly on their GOY and GOM selections. Can you explain how you could win 54% of your plays and still lose money? Poor money management and a staggered rate betting system, that’s how! When you use common sense and look at the numbers, the Game of the Year and the Super Duper Double Blowout Home Dog Filibuster Play of the Year just don’t add up. These “games” are just tools used by the handicapping services to attract business and to offer the proverbial “Pot of Gold” at the end of the rainbow to their season package purchasers. Any questions or comments about this article, you can e-mail me at aavalonsportsguy@hotmail.com. Keep it friendly, please. Aloha.
There are three main reasons why other services offer and promote Game of the Year’s and Game of the Month’s.
1) To capitalize financially from a “hot streak” and to capitalize financially period
2) As an eye catcher, implying to customers that they have a can’t lose sure thing
3) To play catch-up during losing seasons
Let’s examine each reason and do some exposing of the GOY and GOM scam.
1) Have you ever noticed when services release their Game of the Year plays? Have you ever seen someone release their college GOY in week 3 of the season? We didn’t think so, and there are simple explanations as to why. First, every service is out to sell their picks and pick packages, with the most important being the season package. If services offered their college GOY in week 3 it would devalue their season packages. Those that had already purchased season packages would have nothing left to look forward to, the season would just seem like it was on a downhill slide, and what new customer would sign up for a season package that had already released it’s GOY? Secondly, if you lose your college GOY in week 3, you could potentially lose a lot of clients and profit. Winning your GOY in week 3 does not help you (you’re supposed to win it, it’s your GOY for pete’s sake) as much as losing it (this guy cost me money!!!) hurts you. For these reasons, and others, most services choose to offer their GOY’s late in the schedule after a “hot” week. Have you ever seen a service advertise, “coming off of a 1-6 week last week, but our Game of the Year goes this weekend!!!” NO!?! How about this, “Absolutely ON FIRE, 10-3 ATS over the last two weeks and our Game of the Year goes this weekend, grab this can’t lose winner now!!!” Offering a GOY after a “hot” streak ensconces confidence in the consumer and places them under the assumption that if a particular handicapper is “hot” he is even more likely to win his favorite play of the year. With every game being an independent event, that assumption is just not true. Also, remember, services are trying to capitalize financially from releasing these GOY’s, so they all sell these games for a higher price than a normal pick or play. After a winning streak, their websites get more hits, they receive more 900 calls, and, in general, more potential clients become interested in their services. Therefore, any extra profits that are possible from the gaining of new clients are doubled by charging more for their GOY at that time. SERVICES OFFER THEIR GAME OF THE YEAR SELECTIONS AT THE MOST FINANCIALLY OPPORTUNE TIMES NOT NECESSARILY ON THE MOST FINANCIALLY OPPORTUNE GAMES!!! Many professional handicappers don’t even bet on their own GOY’s , they just release them because the time is right. In addition, almost any gambler (even some amateurs) can tell you that the Vegas lines get tighter as the season moves along. If you are a well prepared professional level handicapper, why not release your GOY in week #1 or week #2 when the lines are softer and Vegas is less prepared? Because, there is no money in it and it doesn’t benefit THEM to do so.
2) GOY advertisements and touts are eye-catchers. The average bettor has been conditioned to believe in and to look for these GOY plays, and when they see them they begin to salivate like Pavlovian dogs in a bell shop!!! I once had a highly respected professional handicapper make the point (and a good one), “If I offer a pick package for $25 that includes four plays and my COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR, and you offer a package for the same $25 that includes four “normal” plays, which package do you think the average Joe is going to buy?” Sadly, he is correct. In addition, these GOY’s are offered because they imply to the public that they are can’t lose games, a sure thing, a lock. This is another reason why these games are offered late in the season as opposed to early. As the season moves along, more and more amateur gamblers begin to lose money and get in a hole financially. As the losses mount and their funds dry up, they begin to look for a way to quickly recoup their losses. A professional handicapper’s GOY seems like a surefire way to do just that. An amateur gambler who is down (or maybe even up) only a little in week 3, isn’t very likely to purchase a GOY because he still believes that he can secure a profit using his own information and plays. However, that same amateur in week 12 who is down a couple of thousand dollars is much more susceptible and open to outside influence.
3) Services and handicappers will use GOY’s to play catch up or to try to make up for low winning percentages. In my goals (opening article) I state that I expect to win between 55-59% of my plays each year. This is a very respectable winning percentage and enough to secure a nice profit over a high enough number of plays. One way to offset a low winning percentage or a losing year is to use GOY’s at the end of a season. One 10* GOY winner can offset 10 different 1* losers, or secure enough of a profit to make up for an entire month of losing. Also, offering and winning GOY plays allows that particular handicapper to tout that he won his “big play”, instead of focusing on the fact that he may have had a poor season overall. The GOY and GOM plays are just another way to compartmentalize picks (see opening article). Let’s examine how a professional handicapper may use a GOY to play catch up. A few seasons ago, a very well known, high profile professional handicapper (we’ll call him ML) made use of the GOY catch up scam. In this particular season, ML had his season clients down about $3,600 (not including the $1,000 to $1,200 that he charged for the package to begin with) with only a couple of weeks remaining in the college season. Amazingly, in one of the last weeks he released not ONE but TWO 10* GOY plays on the same weekend. Why do this? Why not, it could only help him. If he hits both GOY’s he picks up 20 units for the year and can then tout that he went 2-0 ATS on his GOY’s instead of focusing on his horrible overall winning percentage or the fact that he lost money for his clients on an almost weekly basis. If he loses both games, who cares. He was already having a disastrous season and losing one or both of those games wouldn’t have made it that much worse. Regardless, all anyone would remember was that he had a very poor season. In offering the two 10* GOY plays, ML put himself in a no lose situation. LOSE, who cares. WIN and crawl back to even while gaining tout material. Do you honestly believe that any of his season clients, who had been losing on a weekly basis and were down almost $5,000, actually bet 10 units apiece on each of those two games. Would you have? NO WAY!!! As it happened, ML did win both 10* plays and crawled back to just above EVEN for the season, despite his low winning percentage. Perfect!!!
I know some of you may doubt my theories regarding GOY’s, GOM’s, 5* GOW, etc. You may doubt that they are no different from “normal” plays and that you are no more likely to win a GOY or GOM than you are any other of your wagers. So, let’s take a look at some numbers and see how my theories work out. The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City (www.thesportsmonitor.com) is a national monitoring service (the most reputable in the industry) that tracks the records of some of the nation’s most high profile handicappers, Phil Steele and Marc Lawrence, among others. This year they tracked the results of 117 different services over the course of the college football season, AAVALONSPORTS.COM included, so I decided to conduct an experiment and the results will be revealed here. Now, if you are a believer in the GOY, GOM, 7* interconference underdog play of the year, AFC GOY, picks; then certainly you would expect for a professional level handicapper to win most of these plays, or at least have a higher winning percentage among these plays than among his average plays. Among handicappers who were having a winning season, this high winning percentage on their “top plays” should be even more pronounced, right??? Let’s see!!! Of the 117 services monitored by The Sports Monitor in college football this season, only 32 finished with a winning percentage of 54% or higher (we are happy to be one of them!). So, let’s use the 32 services who had outstanding years to conduct our experiment. Of the 32 services who had winning percentages of higher than 54%, 30 turned in plays to The Sports Monitor that they rated as “TOP PLAYS” (GOY, GOM, AFC GOW, etc.). Results, 18 OF THE 30 SERVICES HAD A LOWER WINNING PERCENTAGE ON THEIR “TOP PLAYS” THAN THEY DID OVERALL!!! What does this mean? It means, that most of the 32 winning services had a higher winning percentage on their “average” plays than on their supposed “Top Plays”. It means, that of the services that had solid winning seasons 60% of them lowered their winning percentage by offering these highly rated plays. WOW!!! The best part is that these GOY-GOM plays are the ones that cost much more to purchase and you were supposed to have bet more on. Our experiment was to see how our own “top plays” would have done, so over the course of the college football seasons we labeled 10 picks “TOP PLAYS” when we submitted them to The Sports Monitor. Our results on the 10 plays; 5 wins, 5 loses (50%). Our overall winning percentage for the year, 54.10%. We fared worse on our supposed “top plays” than we did overall!!! In addition, two of the services that finished with winning percentages above 54% actually lost money for their clients and had a losing season (-$1,000 and -$1,200) because they faired so poorly on their GOY and GOM selections. Can you explain how you could win 54% of your plays and still lose money? Poor money management and a staggered rate betting system, that’s how! When you use common sense and look at the numbers, the Game of the Year and the Super Duper Double Blowout Home Dog Filibuster Play of the Year just don’t add up. These “games” are just tools used by the handicapping services to attract business and to offer the proverbial “Pot of Gold” at the end of the rainbow to their season package purchasers. Any questions or comments about this article, you can e-mail me at aavalonsportsguy@hotmail.com. Keep it friendly, please. Aloha.
