The books would obviously need Seattle if the game kicked today. With over 70% of the total # bets coming in on Den thus far according to the bet tracking sites along the line moving 3 points off the opener obviously they would need Seahawks. It would be interesting to see those claims documented about which SB's Vegas won and which ones they lost. Den has been a public team in the Manning era and they have covered as Favs more times than not, so its safe to say the public side will be the Broncos for what its worth.
Heres a list of most recent with my guesses of who they needed for few games to the right.
Can anyone else fill in some other games or correct me if im wrong?
Maybe we can at least get a guesstimate.
XLVII 2013 Baltimore 34 San Francisco (-4.5) 31 48, Over BAL Vegas
XLVI 2012 N.Y. Giants 21 New England (-2.5) 17 53, Under NY Vegas
XLV 2011 Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25 (-4.5) 17 45, Over
XLIV 2010 New Orleans Saints 31 Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) 17 56.5, Under
XLIII 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) 27 Arizona Cardinals 23 54, OVER ARZ Vegas
XLII 2008 New York Giants 17 New England Patriots (-13.5) 14 54, UNDER NY Vegas
XLI 2007 Indianapolis (-7) 29 Chicago Bears 17 48, UNDER IND Vegas
XL 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) 21 Seattle Seahawks 10 47, UNDER
XXXIX 2005 New England Patriots (-7) 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 46.5, UNDER
XXXVIII 2004 New England Patriots (-7) 32 Carolina Panthers 29 37.5, OVER
XXXVII 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) 48 Oakland Raiders 21 44, OVER TB Vegas
XXXVI 2002 New England Patriots (+14) 20 St. Louis Rams 17 53, UNDER
XXXV 2001 Baltimore Ravens (-3) 34 New York Giants 7 33, OVER
XXXIV 2000 St. Louis Rams (-7) 23 Tennessee Titans 16 47.5, UNDER
XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos (-7.5) 34 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER
XXXII 1998 Denver Broncos (+11) 31 Green Bay Packers 24 49, OVER
XXXI 1997 Green Bay Packers (-14) 35 New England Patriots 21 49, OVER
Can anyone else fill in some other games or correct me if im wrong?
Maybe we can at least get a guesstimate.
XLVII 2013 Baltimore 34 San Francisco (-4.5) 31 48, Over BAL Vegas
XLVI 2012 N.Y. Giants 21 New England (-2.5) 17 53, Under NY Vegas
XLV 2011 Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25 (-4.5) 17 45, Over
XLIV 2010 New Orleans Saints 31 Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) 17 56.5, Under
XLIII 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) 27 Arizona Cardinals 23 54, OVER ARZ Vegas
XLII 2008 New York Giants 17 New England Patriots (-13.5) 14 54, UNDER NY Vegas
XLI 2007 Indianapolis (-7) 29 Chicago Bears 17 48, UNDER IND Vegas
XL 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) 21 Seattle Seahawks 10 47, UNDER
XXXIX 2005 New England Patriots (-7) 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 46.5, UNDER
XXXVIII 2004 New England Patriots (-7) 32 Carolina Panthers 29 37.5, OVER
XXXVII 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) 48 Oakland Raiders 21 44, OVER TB Vegas
XXXVI 2002 New England Patriots (+14) 20 St. Louis Rams 17 53, UNDER
XXXV 2001 Baltimore Ravens (-3) 34 New York Giants 7 33, OVER
XXXIV 2000 St. Louis Rams (-7) 23 Tennessee Titans 16 47.5, UNDER
XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos (-7.5) 34 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER
XXXII 1998 Denver Broncos (+11) 31 Green Bay Packers 24 49, OVER
XXXI 1997 Green Bay Packers (-14) 35 New England Patriots 21 49, OVER
Not a chance Vegas needed NYG 2 years ago.. Entire public was on NYG vegas needed NE and they lost tons of money on that SB.. I lost also and sat in the book at Mandalay for hours and the line to cash a ticket was at least 2hrs long from all the squares cashing tickets on NYG.. It was the longest line ive seen in a sports book, EVER...
This is the biggest misconception in sports gambling besides people believing you can actually win doing this.
So, say you're right and 70% are on Denver and the total amount wagered of that 70% is 1M dollars (just for example). What if the other 30% have 5M on Seattle?
In this example, who do the books want to cover the spread?
You simply can't go by public betting percentage. It's the money that matters and the books will never ever divulge this information.
they make money because of all the prop bets and teasers and parlays
I don't think they had the right side 21/23, that would be an amazing run
and public % wouldn't mean much in this case, it's about the whales
I don't think they had the right side 21/23, that would be an amazing run
and public % wouldn't mean much in this case, it's about the whales
As of right now a significant amount of money as well as percentage of bets are on Denver meaning books would be Seattle fans if the game was played today.
In your example there would be reverse line movement where sharp money outweighs public percentage. That's just not the case right now.
Take the spread out of the equation and look at the ML bets. ML bets right now are about even.
Wait until the Services release their plays. Then you will see a spike one way or another.
Plus anyone that thinks the so called "Smart" money has already played needs to re-think their approach.
So called "Smart" money and/or Syndicates will NOT place wagers until around 30-60min. before kick off. They to want to know what the Services are on.
To note: If you look around the Forums, most are on Seattle & the Under. Also the Media seems to be leaning on Seattle as well.
Someone early mentioned the SB between the undefeated Pats & Giants. The big wager on that particular bowl was the OVER. "Smart" money came late on the Under.
Wait until the Services release their plays. Then you will see a spike one way or another.
Plus anyone that thinks the so called "Smart" money has already played needs to re-think their approach.
So called "Smart" money and/or Syndicates will NOT place wagers until around 30-60min. before kick off. They to want to know what the Services are on.
To note: If you look around the Forums, most are on Seattle & the Under. Also the Media seems to be leaning on Seattle as well.
Someone early mentioned the SB between the undefeated Pats & Giants. The big wager on that particular bowl was the OVER. "Smart" money came late on the Under.
Seems like recent SBs have gone to the dogs as they are 8-3 ATS last 11 so one would have to assume Vegas has done well when the dog covers in games where there is a huge amount of public action. Looks like this is only the second time in those last 11 games that the line is under 3 points, the last one being the Steelers vs Packers in 2010. Although we don't really know where the $ is going for sure, I think we can infer or make an educated guess that when 70+% of the bets are on one side and the line has moved that way by 3 points that the $ is on Denver as of right now. Of course, the big $ could just be waiting for the best number before coming in on Sea so we will have to wait right up until kick and see what happens.
