GoSooners Plays For Week 4

[GoSooners]

* 2-2
** 2-14
*** 1-3
**** 0-2

Needless to say this looks bad. Last week I had a perfect week going 0-7. Which has never happened to me before. The only thing I broke even on was my small totals plays. I'm still hoping for the one good week where I can recover most of my losses. Hopefully it will come soon. I usually don't dust off my running dogs and get them out until a month into the season. But desperate times calls for desperate measures. And the running dogs have been on an incredible run for the last 3 weeks. This is first time that I can ever recall in college football where the dogs have covered as much as the favorites in the early weeks. Last week the favorites finally came out on top going 37-26. But if you take out their FCS games it ended up 26-25. So this is a very strange season. And because of the unusually high amount of parity in college football this season it's made it hard on many of the handicappers like myself who likes to play many situational angles in the first few weeks of the season. Last week I thought teams like Arkansas, Baylor, Nevada and KSU had perfect situations to win or cover their games. And in previous years these kinds of teams have come through for me. But college football just isn't going by the book this year.

I'm not putting in any plays yet, but I am going to do the running dogs list this week that I'm going to choose my games from. Naturally I'm not going to use all of these because their difficulty of schedule hasn't been determined yet. I'll also have a few running favorites, which I may add to later in the week.

Probable Running Dogs (PRD) Odds are from Sunday Night

South Carolina(+3.5)....Definitely a PRD
Nevada (+7)...Young Mizzou QB making his first true road trip out of Missouri against a team playing their first home game.
Boston College (pickem)
Buffalo(+2.5)
Michigan St.(+2.5)
TCU (+2.5) This is a tough game because Clemson does have a stout DL. However, their offense despite moving the football well against BC, never did score an offensive TD. All FG's. So obvious redzone problems vs good defense.
Fresno St (+14) Has Cincy lost all of their line value after last week's win? Fresno has a strong OL.
Miss.St. (+14) LSU is overrated. Les Miles is a bafoon who is the Forrest Gump of college football who happened to be in the right place at the right time to win a BCS title with 2 losses. MSU ran the ball well against a stout Vandy defense.
Marshall (+3)
UAB +15..Good running team but a bad defense
Wyoming (+5.5)...Bad offense, good defense
Colorado St. (+14.5)...Possible BYU hangover? Very good and experienced CSU OL.
Va Tech (+1.5) Is Miami's defense as good as the Huskers? Blacksburg is a very hostile enviornment for new QB's. VT has better defense than Miami's first 2 opponents GT or FSU.
Purdue (+7.5) Notre Dame is OVERRATED. But Purdue isn't that good either.
Louisville (+11.5) Good running backs, played Kentucky tough last week.
Iowa (+10)..Penn State offense is overrated.
Oregon State (+2.5)..Zona does have a decent running game, but their QB play was pretty dreadful in their first road trip. Plus the Gronk is out for the season.
ULM (+5)..They were the running dogs last week against ASU and didn't cover. But are taking a big drop in class as dogs again this week.
Troy(+1.5)..This is a tough one because Arky St. is also a good running team.
North Texas (+7.5) Status of injuried QB Riley Dodge?
FIU (Pick)
Oregon (+7) This team is starting to look much better. Broke Utah's 13 game winning streak. Had a good rushing offense/defense ratio in that game. Team is in their comfort zone playing their third straight home game. Cal is on their second straight road game. Familiarity of conference foes could make this a close game.
Northwestern (Pick)..Minny is not a good running team. Now going back out on the road.
Bowling Green (+15) Boise's defense last week away from the blue turf didn't impress me. Experienced BG QB Sheehan could keep this closer than expected. Plus BG defense actually playing well despite all of the new starters.


Running Favorites (Small list but I'll probably add to it later)

Vanderbilt (-8) Vandy taking a big class drop from their last 2 games. More reasonable line. Much better defense.
East Carolina (-9.5)...EC taking a class drop from their last 2 games
Georgia (-12) Georgia taking a class drop from their first 3 games. ASU can't run the ball and going on the road for the first time.
Stanford (-7) Washington coming off a big emotional win over USC and now hitting the road for the first time against a very solid running team.


Right now I've got leans with Oregon, Oregon State, South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan State, Iowa, ULM, Miss. St., Bowling Green, Georgia

 

[WinningWand]

Keep your chin up my friend. It is a long season and you are a good capper. It is only a matter of time. These are the times that make you go back to the basics which make you a better capper in the future. I believe you will turn it around and you WILL have a winning season by the end of the year. Watch and see!! You are too good of a MAN and capper to stay down.

 

[GoSooners]

Keep your chin up my friend. It is a long season and you are a good capper. It is only a matter of time. These are the times that make you go back to the basics which make you a better capper in the future. I believe you will turn it around and you WILL have a winning season by the end of the year. Watch and see!! You are too good of a MAN and capper to stay down.

Thanks for the kind words Wandy...It's sure good to see you back in the RX. BOL my friend.:toast:

 

[PatsFanatic]

Turn the page man....bad starts often lead to good finishes!
I'm rooting for you and will continue to read your breakdowns.

Just look at my Pats, they look awful thorugh two games this year but we all know they'll be there in the end! GL

 

[russ1945]

GS: I think the weather had a lot to do with the scoring in the Clemson game LW. BC with less than 60 yds total offense included. I have been posting my plays on another forum but I had TCU as my GOM at Virginia. However, that team has some flaws and no where near the team speed as does Clemson. Also TCU does not have the quick strike capabilities like Clemson. I had planned on riding TCU for a while but I can already see that they do not match up well against Clemson on the road. I could be wrong but they may not have the best defense on the field Saturday much less the best offense. BOL

 

[nd2000]

Purdue +8.5 is a game of the year type wager. Notre Dame has ZERO defense and now they lost their best player, Michael Floyd. Keep in mind that Notre Dame was only favored over Purdue by 1 last year in South Bend. The true gap between these teams is very small. The public perception of the gap is much larger than reality. Pound the Boilers, and that is coming from a Notre Dame graduate...

 

[yellowman]

Purdue +8.5 is a game of the year type wager. Notre Dame has ZERO defense and now they lost their best player, Michael Floyd. Keep in mind that Notre Dame was only favored over Purdue by 1 last year in South Bend. The true gap between these teams is very small. The public perception of the gap is much larger than reality. Pound the Boilers, and that is coming from a Notre Dame graduate...

Tend to favor the home dog here too...hopefully the line will keep moving up ... BOL sir I"ll be on the Boilers too...

 

[jbragg10]

good luck this week. Hope you turn it around. I am loving the Oregon St. game (fyi)

 

[GoSooners]

GS: I think the weather had a lot to do with the scoring in the Clemson game LW. BC with less than 60 yds total offense included. I have been posting my plays on another forum but I had TCU as my GOM at Virginia. However, that team has some flaws and no where near the team speed as does Clemson. Also TCU does not have the quick strike capabilities like Clemson. I had planned on riding TCU for a while but I can already see that they do not match up well against Clemson on the road. I could be wrong but they may not have the best defense on the field Saturday much less the best offense. BOL

You could be right about this game. TCU is the running dog. But it is basically just based on their one game with Virginia. So there really isn't much data to go on with this game. One advantage that TCU does have going for them is the big HC mismatch between Patterson and Yaba Daba Swinney. I'm curious to see how much the line moves with this game.

 

[indiana]

G.Sooners..........

You're a solid capper....it will turn..look forward to your plays...bol this week

indy

 

[johnboland]

The radio announcers said Saturday that Clemson's CJ Spiller is the only player in Clemson history to have TD 's in rushing, receiving, KO returns, and punt returns. He is also the only player to ever have over 100 yds games in rushing, receiving, KO returns, and punt returns. Clemson defense had a great day and I am sure they will bring the same intensity back this weekend for another game at Death Valley. Clemson Alumni and locals like the progress the new Clemson coaching staff has made, but the offense has to get on track to compliment the effort the defense is contributing. CJ Spiller has really yet to have his break out game rushing wise this year. As long as he is healthy, that shuck and jive move down the sideline is always a factor because he can take it to the house faster that just about anyone in the country. I look for Clemson to have another good showing Saturday in front of 85,000 plus at Death Valley. We are also praying for better weather this weekend with hopefully no storms in the area come game time.

 

[GoSooners]

If you were here this summer you might have caught my thread of the best ATS teams. The last few years the majority of the teams who have beaten the spread (winning 8 games or more ATS in a season) haven't been able to repeat a winning ATS season the next year. In the last 3 years since 2006 we have had very few ATS repeaters in college football. An average of about 1 a season. UCLA and Florida have been the only repeaters over the last 3 seasons. This is why I am very hesitant to bet on teams this year who had great ATS seasons last year. Here is a list of the 19 teams who beat the spread (8 ATS wins or more) in 2008 and what they've done so far in 2009. The number of 2008 ATS wins are in parenthesis.


Alabama (9) 2-1 (with the meat of their SEC schedule coming up)
Ball State (8) 1-2
Baylor (8) 1-1 (I should have known better betting them against UCONN last week)
Boston College (8) 1-2
Buffalo (8) 1-2
California (8) 3-0! (this team is overdue for an ATS loss)
Florida (10) 1-2 (Way too high of lines for the Gators thanks to last season)
Ga Tech (8) 0-3
Ole Miss (8) 2-0 (another team who is due for an ATS loss)
NC State (9) 1-2
Oklahoma (10) 2-1
Okie State (9) 1-2
Oregon State (8) 0-3
Penn State (9) 0-3
Rice (8) 1-2
Rutgers (9) 0-3
TCU (9) 1-1
Texas (9) 0-3 (Way too high of lines on the Horns in the first 3 weeks)
Utah State (8) 2-0 (remarkably this team is still flying under the radar. Last season they were the only team besides Baylor who had a losing SU record but a winning ATS record. Kind of rare in college football. I wonder when the linesmakers are going to catch up with this team? They still haven't won a game. But are very competetive with a good QB and RB)

If you were betting these 19 teams who were successful last season to fail against the spread in the first 3 weeks this season you would have gone 33-20 ATS! I bet most of you system players haven't thought of this one. But I've been tracking these ATS teams for the last few years. And they do good when they can win 50% of their ATS games in the first few weeks of the next season when the linesmakers are still using their ATS success from the year before. I'm sure the lines will start coming down for most of these teams. But one thing is for sure, just about all of these teams WON'T repeat the ATS success they had last season just based on what they've done in the first 3 weeks.

 

[GoSooners]

Patsfantatic, jbragg, Russ, Indiana...Thanks fellas. Hopefully I'll break out of this funk this week. At this point i would just like to win a game. And then go from there..

JohnBoland...Thanks for the info on the Clemson game. You might be preaching to the choir here. I listed TCU as a PRD, but they are stepping up in class and getting only a FG. TCU is also due to have a down year ATS (see post above).

 

[linebets]

GS, i actually like the UAB play... Not sure if you are aware or not but Fuller is out with a cracked fibula and Michael went out in the Utah State game with a calf pull or something. Fuller and an Oline member are out for the UAB game. Also Arkansas is the next weekend. A&M may be looking ahead but who knows. The fact is, a&m giving more than 2 touchdowns is just ridiculous. Like i said last week. At any rate... both teams without any sort of defense, ill be looking at the o/u

gl this week

 

[youngmoney]

been following many years and there has been more times then I can count that i've tailed you to win the money bro.

this is gonna be the week you turn it around, week 4 my friend!!

as always gl to you and stay strong with your methods of winning, your a good capper and i can pull up old threads to boost your mood if you need it

 

[FGators]

Great trends/information, GoSooners. The record will definitely come back around. You're very informed and a consistent winner in the past.

I'm trying to remain true. I'm 5-1 this year in college but 1-5 in the NFL. It's just a really frustrating business. I really feel like I've capped the NFL harder and my results are horrendous.

I think some breaks will happen.

The running dogs angle is a tried and true one.

Out of those I really like Bowling Green. The line is around 17 and I expect to get them around 18.

The public is hammering Boise State at about 75%. Speaking of ATS killers they are 3-0 ATS.

I can't say too much about BGU. I guess a positive is they only gave up 17 points last week, 14 to Troy in week 1, and lost to Missouri in a tough one 27-20.

This is their Super Bowl, too, so we can expect full intensity. Hopefully this is a situation where the first half is close and Boise doesn't have enough separation to turn this into a blowout.

Boise won this 20-7 last year at home so Bowling Green is capable of getting them into an ugly dogfight...

 

[GoSooners]

GS, i actually like the UAB play... Not sure if you are aware or not but Fuller is out with a cracked fibula and Michael went out in the Utah State game with a calf pull or something. Fuller and an Oline member are out for the UAB game. Also Arkansas is the next weekend. A&M may be looking ahead but who knows. The fact is, a&m giving more than 2 touchdowns is just ridiculous. Like i said last week. At any rate... both teams without any sort of defense, ill be looking at the o/u

gl this week

The injury reports and the strength of schedule are two things I'll be looking at today with all of these teams. Thanks for the info on Fuller. I wasn't aware of it. I think it's just as important when these offensive lineman go down. I especially look for lower body injuuries such as ankle or leg as opposed to arm or upper body injuries that they can play through. One injury to the O-Line can hurt. But two injuries can disrupt the chemistry of the line and have a big affect on the offense. Especially the running game. So these are things I look for this time of year when the injuries start to pile up.

 

[GoSooners]

been following many years and there has been more times then I can count that i've tailed you to win the money bro.

this is gonna be the week you turn it around, week 4 my friend!!

as always gl to you and stay strong with your methods of winning, your a good capper and i can pull up old threads to boost your mood if you need it

Thanks buddy. Hopefully the running dogs get back in the green this week. GL:toast:

 

[fonz5000]

GoS,

I am pretty new to these forums and have tailed quite a few of your picks this year. yeah, we have had a slow start, but just from what I read here, and the respect you seem to get from everyone, I will continue to follow your picks.

This has been the worst year starting year for me in college football ever. Like others have said, teams just seem to be a lot more even in college now. I am trying to understand it myself. It seems like every game I like goes the complete opposite way.:think2:

I love your write ups and insights so keep 'em coming. You get it all back !

 

[GoSooners]

Great trends/information, GoSooners. The record will definitely come back around. You're very informed and a consistent winner in the past.

I'm trying to remain true. I'm 5-1 this year in college but 1-5 in the NFL. It's just a really frustrating business. I really feel like I've capped the NFL harder and my results are horrendous.

I think some breaks will happen.

The running dogs angle is a tried and true one.

Out of those I really like Bowling Green. The line is around 17 and I expect to get them around 18.

The public is hammering Boise State at about 75%. Speaking of ATS killers they are 3-0 ATS.

I can't say too much about BGU. I guess a positive is they only gave up 17 points last week, 14 to Troy in week 1, and lost to Missouri in a tough one 27-20.

This is their Super Bowl, too, so we can expect full intensity. Hopefully this is a situation where the first half is close and Boise doesn't have enough separation to turn this into a blowout.

Boise won this 20-7 last year at home so Bowling Green is capable of getting them into an ugly dogfight...

I am definitely giving Bowling Green some serious consideration. This is the first time I can remember Boise having two non conference games back to back this early in the season. So this could have an affect on this young Boise team who has 12 sophomores starting for them. We'll see if Peterson can get them up and playing with the same intensity that they did last week at Fresno. That's not always easy to do two weeks in a row. Boise treated that Fresno game very serious all week last week. So this is probably going to be a little bit of a down spot for them. BG obviously aren't scared of this Bronco team. They played them tough at Boise last year just losing 20-7. So we'll see how far this line goes up.