GoSooners Plays for Week 1

GoSooners · Aug 17, 2009

Hey fellas, it's great to be back for another season. I'm going to put in a couple early plays because I fear these lines could go up in both games. I'll be playing pretty much the same way I did last season with the star system to determin strength of play. I won't be playing nearly as many games each week as I have in previous years. So this time around I'm aiming for quality over quantity..Until I get a feel for this season, the majority of these first week plays will be small plays or medium plays for me. I don't know how everybody else is seeing this 2009 season, but this year looks much more confusing to me than previous years. The first thing that sticks out is there are many more conference title contenders than what I've seen in the past. And I really can't say with as much clarity who I think will win. So I'll be going easy in these first couple of weeks until I see these teams play and get a feel for where they are heading..

** (Small Play)
*** (Medium Play)
**** (Large Play-Best Bet)

Colorado (-11) over Colorado State **

This used to be a pretty predictable series. Just take the dog because we knew it would be close. But that trend pretty much got threw out of the window last season with the Buffs 38-17 win. This is what happens when you get coaching changes. And this is no longer the Barnett/Lubick war. I believe the Buffs are on their way up this season after an injury riddled 2008. They look to have a killer rushing attack. And they'll be going up against a CSU defense that was one of the nations worst against the run last year. And with graduations this version of CSU's defense looks to be in even worse shape. I look for the Buffs talented RB Scott to have a breakout season behind a now healthy and athletic Buffs offensive line. My only concern, and the reason this isn't a bigger play is the Buffs defense. Mainly the D-Line vs CSU experienced O-Line.. The Buffs are another one of those teams that I would like to see play first before I put any large bet down on them. But the bottom line for this game is the Buffs ability to exploit a CSU run defense. And with CSU starting a first year QB and RB, I have my doubts that they can put a large hurt on any BCS defense. Even the Buffs. So I'll give a couple scores to a CSU team who lost by 21 to the Buffs last season on a neutral field. The game is played in Boulder this year.. And with only 12 starters back CSU will more than likely regress a little this season. Especially in these early games. I look for Hawkins, who is on the hotseat, to come out and make a statement here after predicting a 10-2 season for the Buffs.

Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse ***

This looks to me like one of those rare games we get at the beginning of the season where one team is clearly much better than the other, but the public refuses to believe it. The stat that is throwing everybody off is the way in which Minny ended the 2008 season losing their last 5 games. So which team is Minny? The one that went 7-1 to start the 2008 season, or the one that went 0-5 to end it? My bet is they are something in between. Which in my opinion will be enough to comfortably win this game. This is how bad of shape that I think Syracuse is in right now. They are not only dealing with having no talent, they are dealing with a new coach and system along with barely having enough players to fill the roster after coach Marrone dismissed 16 players since he came on board, along with starting LB Derek Hines just a couple days ago. He'll have a freshman taking his place. Plus they had a huge shakeup on othe offensive line, rotating players all over the place just before the beginning of summer practices. And Cuse will be going up against a veteran Minny team with 17 starters back including their excellent QB Weber. This will be Minny HC Brewster's third year, which for many coaches is their best season. And with their very tough schedule this season, I expect the GG's to try to make the most out of their winnable games like this one. It should be a cakewalk. Even for Minny.

dash1029 · Aug 17, 2009

Good luck ill be with you on these... goooo sooners

SoonerBS · Aug 17, 2009

Good plays, GS . . . . .

mobeer · Aug 17, 2009

SOONERS

Theres the Main Man..... Card looks good so far buddy......Looking forward for another great season from ya..KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK AROUND HERE!!

BEST OF LUCK THIS SEASON :toast:

BEER GUY$$

YourAllAmerican · Aug 17, 2009

Very glad to see these threads starting up again.

CrapGame · Aug 17, 2009

I like the Minn so play and think you are right on.

I hear ya about not playing as many games this year. I am really going to try to stick with just the big 10 and maybe some high profile games.

I always try to find that underdog that covers like 7 games in row for me.
Last year I got lucky and found two Vandy and Ball St.

Good Luck!

UTSUX · Aug 17, 2009

BOL GS. :toast:

fivestarjake · Aug 17, 2009

really appreciate your efforts gs. theres really no reason why minny can't get there for us. i'm also backing up a bit and want to see how certain teams fare before jumping on them. gl this year my friend.:toast:

GoSooners · Aug 17, 2009

Guys, here are a few observations that I have about some of these first week games regarding opening lines, line movements, perception etc. Don't get mad at me. They are just observations. It doesn't have anything to do with a like or dislike of a team. And it doesn't mean that I will bet any of these games just because i have an opinion about them.

Baylor at Wake Forest-First, have you seen anybody in any of these forums that likes Wake Forest? Admittably, I've been pretty high on Baylor myself. But now that the line is down to a pickem, we really have to start getting real with our thinking about this game. First, we are looking at a Baylor team who hasn't been to a bowl in 15 years. They are going up against a Wake team who has gone bowling for the last 3 years. Playing at home in a pickem game against a team who has won only one road game in the last 2 years. And that was at Buffalo. Yes, Wake lost a lot on defense. And Robert Griffin is a potential superstar. But other than that, Wake is as good or better at just about every position on the field. QB Riley will be a 4 year starter who has the highest completion percentage in ACC history. Robert Griffin was Big 12 newcomer Of The year last year and a great athlete. But zero road wins on his resume..So I would actually rate the QB position even. I could go on and list every position. But you get the idea where i'm coming from. There is no clearcut advantages for Baylor in this game. Wake has 24 seniors returning to this team including 11 senior starters and 16 total in the two deep. So despite the heavy losses on defense, this is still an experienced Wake team. And Baylor is still a bad defense on the road. I believe this game is all about perception instead of the real facts. And that's why this line keeps going down. I'm not saying Baylor can't win this game. They certainly can. I'm just saying that if you go by the way these forums are leaning, there could possibly be a lot of unhappy folks after this game is over.

South Carolina at North Carolina St.-Again, have you seen very many if any on South Carolina here? I haven't. The first thing that stuck out for me in this game is the better defense (SC) getting points. This ALWAYS brings up a red flag with me. Last season South Carolina's defense gave up 290 ypg to NCST's 395 ypg. Out of a better conference. And as bad as SC's offense was, there really wasn't as much difference in their offensive numbers as you might think (327-312). Last season SC was -6 in TO margin. NCST was +8. I expect some kind of correction there with NCST's probably going down a little and SC's going up. And one other big facotr here is NCST's loss of LB Irving. Without him in the lineup last season NCST lost all 4 games he was out. They say he is so good that he is the defensive equivalent of Russell Wilson on offense. But since his car accident this summer, they have now said he'll sit out the entire season. I think this is a HUGE blow to this team. Something else that brings up a red flag with me is NCST won 9 games ATS last season. And they made me a lot of money. Just like Baylor did last season with their 8 ATS wins. But the problem is, middle of the pack teams never are able to repeat those kinds of ATS wins and ultimatly disappoint their backers who fattened their pocketbooks with this team and figure they'll do it again. But here's something else to think about. NCST was the dog in every single game last year except William & Mary! And now they are already being made the favorites to start the 2009 season. Do you see a possible problem here? Hey, I really like this team and their outstanding coach O'Brien. And I still believe they are a darkhorse candidate to win the ACC. But winning and covering spreads against SEC teams are two different things.

Nothing is a certainty in college football. And just because these linesmakers throw you a bone to see what you do with it, it doesn't mean you have to take it. Do your homework before pulling the trigger.

jblonghorn · Aug 17, 2009

Good to see ya back with the plays GS. I swear this has been the longest off-season in history. Let's all have a profitable year.

jblonghorn · Aug 17, 2009

I agree on Baylor. A lot of us are drinking that Green Baylor Kool-Aid. I think the best choice is to actually see how Baylor reacts to being talked about as a bowl team this year. I'm also a true believer in "Sophomore slumps", and Griffin is in prime position to go into one...especially with their #1 O-Lineman going #2 in the draft....although I'm a huge believer in Art Briles...we shall see soon enough....

jbragg10 · Aug 17, 2009

agree with all your assessments except on the nc st game.
I think you might be thinking about it too much ... Good luck with your plays. I am looking into some of the ones you mentioned.

Hope you have a great year ... I am sure you will!

White_Tiger · Aug 17, 2009

gl GS

GoSooners · Aug 17, 2009

jbragg10 said:
agree with all your assessments except on the nc st game.
I think you might be thinking about it too much ... Good luck with your plays. I am looking into some of the ones you mentioned.

Hope you have a great year ... I am sure you will!

JB...The one thing that possibly could go in NCST's favor in a big way this year is the 43 starts they lost to injury last season. That's why I'm anticipating improvement with some of these players coming back. Although Irving was a big loss at a key position for this team.. I just don't think that NCST is going to get the breaks with the lines that they did last year. But since this is a short line and they'll have the best QB on the field playing at home, their chances of covering are fairly good. But I would be very leery of this game if the line starts creeping up. SC has a good enough defense to keep the game low scoring. And the lower the score the bigger that -3.5 or more starts to look.

GoSooners · Aug 17, 2009

jblonghorn said:
I agree on Baylor. A lot of us are drinking that Green Baylor Kool-Aid. I think the best choice is to actually see how Baylor reacts to being talked about as a bowl team this year. I'm also a true believer in "Sophomore slumps", and Griffin is in prime position to go into one...especially with their #1 O-Lineman going #2 in the draft....although I'm a huge believer in Art Briles...we shall see soon enough....

For teams like Baylor, losing a lineman or anybody else in the first day of the NFL draft is a blow. I don't care what anybody says. I guarantee that whoever replaces him is going to miss some blocks that Griffin took for granted last season. That's just the way it is. These kinds of player losses are hard enough for deep teams like OU or Texas to deal with. For middle of the pack teams it's a bigtime adjustment.

hook'em25 · Aug 17, 2009

I agree with you on the Nc State-South Carolina game. I see this being a low scoring game that is decided by a field goal either way. I really like Spurrie and Co. to pull the upset.

I must admit that I am kind of perplexed by the Baylor-Wake Forest spread. Wake smashed Baylor in Waco last year, so the obvious choice would seem to be Wake. I love the old saying that "if a spread looks too good to be true, it usually is." With that being said I think Baylor wins this game. I realize many prognosticators are picking them as a surprise team this year, but there is no way this game should be a pick. Give me the Bears.

GoSooners · Aug 18, 2009

fivestarjake said:
really appreciate your efforts gs. theres really no reason why minny can't get there for us. i'm also backing up a bit and want to see how certain teams fare before jumping on them. gl this year my friend.:toast:

Jake...My opinion about Minny is they are going to cover this first game. But it doesn't necessarily mean they are going to win a lot of games this year. I think this could be a tough season for them because of their schedule of playing OSU, Penn State, and Iowa all on the road, along with Cal and an improved Illinois and Michigan State teams at home. Minny was +12 in turnover margin last season. And that stat alone won them some close games last year that they could or should have lost. Trouble is, it's very hard for teams like this to repeat a double digit TO margin number.

GoSooners · Aug 18, 2009

hook'em25 said:
I agree with you on the Nc State-South Carolina game. I see this being a low scoring game that is decided by a field goal either way. I really like Spurrie and Co. to pull the upset.

I must admit that I am kind of perplexed by the Baylor-Wake Forest spread. Wake smashed Baylor in Waco last year, so the obvious choice would seem to be Wake. I love the old saying that "if a spread looks too good to be true, it usually is." With that being said I think Baylor wins this game. I realize many prognosticators are picking them as a surprise team this year, but there is no way this game should be a pick. Give me the Bears.

Like I said, I'm just throwing a few facts out there about these games that maybe hasn't been said yet. It doesn't at all mean that I don't think Baylor or NCST won't win these games. Even though everybody and their ugly step sister seems to be on both of these teams. But I also realize that even the majority consensus in these forums get it right now and then.

jblonghorn · Aug 18, 2009

GoSooners said:
For teams like Baylor, losing a lineman or anybody else in the first day of the NFL draft is a blow. I don't care what anybody says. I guarantee that whoever replaces him is going to miss some blocks that Griffin took for granted last season. That's just the way it is. These kinds of player losses are hard enough for deep teams like OU or Texas to deal with. For middle of the pack teams it's a bigtime adjustment.

Especially when Coach Briles is deciding to try and replace him with a 25 year old hockey player from Canada....seriously. His (Briles) nickname down here in Austin is McGyver, and if this experiment works, he'll earn his keep. Somehow I don't think it will. I like Wake at home, for a very small amount. Until Baylor proves to me firsthand they're ready for bigtime ball, I won't believe it 'til I see it....