GoSooners Bowl Season Thread With "Running Dogs"!

[GoSooners]

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against. Here is the list of running dogs for this year:


Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa

After crunching the numbers I'm having to go back and rethink some of these games. Especially Oregon/OSU, since my first impressions were OSU huge. But I'm a big believer in this system. And if neither of these teams give me a good enough reason to think otherwise, I will probably end up being on Oregon.


I just wanted to say one more thing concerning the BCS title game. First, anything that comes out of mouth is probably going to be through crimson and cream colored glasses for this game. So it's probably better I keep my mouth shut concerning this game Personally I think OU has just as many arguments why they should win this game as Florida. I won't be betting this game because I've already got a preseason prop bet on OU to win the BCS title at +800. So in a roundabout way I've already bet on it. At any rate, until Stoops comes through and actually wins a BCS game, I just can't put a lot of money on the Sooners. We can have a thousand arguments as to one side, so let's not clog up the thread on who is the better team. Let's just hope it is a great BCS title game for once. Probably the single biggest thing that I've used in helping to determin the winner of this game is the conference bowl records, and who has the best coming in. The winner of the BCS title games since 2000 has had at least as good if not a better conference bowl record as their opponent. So whichever conference, the SEC or Big 12, has the better bowl record coming into this game, this is the way I lean. You can't always go by one teams stats. Especially if they came from an inferior conference. Ohio State/Florida was a good example in the 2006 title game. Ohio State had some phenomenal numbers especially on defense. And they outscored their opponents by an average score of 36-10. But the problem was it was in a weak conference who went 2-5 in the bowl games compared to the SEC going 6-3. Big difference. And it showed in the final score. Here's how the conference win/loss bowl records break down since 2000:


2000 OU beats Florida St. 13-2
Big 12 4-3
ACC 1-4

2001 Miami beat Nebraska 37-14
Big East 4-0
Big 12 3-5

2002 Ohio State beat Miami 31-24
Big 10 5-2
Big East 2-2

2003 LSU beat OU 21-14
SEC: 5-2
Big 12: 2-6

2004 USC beat OU 55-19
Pac-10 3-2
Big 12 4-3

2005 Texas beat USC 41-38
Big 12 5-3
Pac-10 3-2

2006 Florida beat Ohio State 41-14
SEC 6-3
Big 10 2-5

2007 LSU beat Ohio State 38-24
SEC 7-2
Big 10 3-5

As you can see that aside from the 2004 season where the Pac-10 and Big 12 finshed about even, in the modern era of football the best conference in these bowls usually take care of business in the BCS title game. So whoever has the best record between the SEC and Big 12, that is the way I'll probably be leaning. I'll be putting in a couple bowl plays this weekend. I'm still putting a few things together.


Good luck!

 

[seanm0520]

Look forward to following this thread Sooners! I was eying Western Mich. and Miss before but now that it's in this system, I like them that much more. GL!

 

[GoSooners]

The motivational factors and coaching changes can be huge for some of these teams in the bowls. Here is a list of a few things to think about for each game:

Fresno/Colorado St. Fresno has to be disappointed with their season after having BCS hopes. But CSU might just be happy to be there. Plus CSU has a first year coach.

TCU/Boise Neither of these teams should have any trouble being motivated for each other.

USF/Memphis USF has to be very disappointed in their season. Memphis probably looking to make up for last season's poor bowl showing.

Notre Dame/Hawaii ND has to be disappointed in their season. But also motivated to stop their bowl losing streak. Hawaii playing at home.

FAU/CMU Both were preseason faves in their respective conferences. So it's probably a wash.

West Virginia/UNC WV fell way short of their preseason goal. UNC's first bowl game in 4 years.

Wisconsin/FSU Neither achieved their goals.

Miami/CAL Miami just happy to be in a bowl. CAL underachieved?

NIU/La Tech Both just happy to be in a bowl

NCST/Rutgers NCST just happy to be in a bowl after missing last season and starting slow. Rutgers didn't achieve their goals but played well down the stretch. Tough call. Tom O'Brien coached teams have done well in their bowl games. Both teams red hot on offense.

Northwestern/Missouri NW should be pumped since nobody is giving them a prayer to beat Mizzou. Mizzou fell way short of their BCS goal.

Nevada/Maryland Nevada probably the more motivated team after getting beat in their bowl game last year. Maryland coming up short in the ACC.

WMU/Rice Rice is definitely motivated to win this game and get to 10 wins for only the second time in their school's history. Plus they haven't won a bowl game since I've been alive. And I'm older than dirt. But not as old as CoachLT...LOL

Oregon/OSU Both teams should be very motivated to play each other. OSU's DC leaving.

Houston/Air Force Houston looking for revenge from early season loss to AF in which the game was moved because of the hurricane that hit the Houston area.

Pitt/Oregon St. Pitt could possibly be a little disappointed by not making it to a BCS game. But OSU is probably devastated by not making it to the Rose Bowl. I would say Pitt has the motivational edge.

BC/Vandy Vandy should be motivated because this is their first bowl game in 26 years. But BC probably very motivated to extend their 8 game winning streak.

Minnesota/Kansas Minny probably has the motivational edge. But may be just happy to be there. Kansas taking a big step back from last season's BCS game.

LSU/GT GT should have the motivational and coaching edge. LSU going from the penthouse to the outhouse.

Iowa/South Carolina I htink Iowa probably has a huge motivational edge after missing out on a bowl last year. I think SC had bigger plans for this year. Plus their last two blowout losses doesn't help.

Clemson/Nebraska Same thing for Clemson as SC. A BIG disappointment this season, going up against a Husker team who missed a bowl last year. I'm also more apt to take first year coach Pelini over an interim coach.

MSU/Georgia Have to think Georgia's season was a huge disappointment.

Penn State/USC Both missed out on their BCS title dreams. The west coast angle always favors USC in these games.

VT/Cincy Both teams should be motivated. Cincy probably happy and shocked to be there.

Ole Miss/Texas Tech Probably a huge motivational edge for Ole Miss here after TT's BCS hopes went up like a nuclear bomb in Norman.

ECU/Kentucky ECU was thinking big earlier in the year. But I'm not sure there is really a motivational edge here.

Utah/Bama Utah HUGE after Bama blew their chance at a NC. Plus nobody is giving Utah a prayer.

Buffalo/UCONN Buffalo should definitely be motivated. But UCONN probably is too after losing their bowl game last season. Plus the Huskies have more bowl experience. Turner Gill possibly leaving?

Texas/Ohio State Will Texas be disappointed or pissed after missing out on a BCS title game? Like the Sooners, OSU would like to silence the critics. Possible revenge game for Colt McCoy after losing to OSU as a freshman starter. Tough motivational call.

Ball State/Tulsa Both have to be disappointed after losing their conference title games. But who will be the most devastated?

OU/FLorida OU should definitely be motivated after their last few BCS performances, and the fact that not many of the "experts" are giving them a chance. Florida will be pretty much the home team.

 

[jwblue]

I am thinking about going heavy on the under in the title game.

Thoughts?

 

[GoSooners]

I am thinking about going heavy on the under in the title game.

Thoughts?

I agree..I think the game goes well under the total.

 

[trentmoney]

GS-

good to see you up and running...always a great time of year!!

i'm not sure what to make of wisky as the running dog...FSU had the best running game in the ACC outside of gtech and their defense is pretty solid, only getting beat on the ground by UF and Gtech (who didn't) and nc state broke a few long runs...out of conference schedule for wisky was pretty weak also and they played their 2 toughest opponents, oh st and psu at home, and still lost

i also see that we might end up disagreeing on clemson/neb, so it might be good for us to debate that as we might see things previously unnoticed...btw-swinney is the full-time coach and not interim anymore, and while clemson had a disappointing season, a lot of that seemed to be wiped away after bowden resigned. they won 4 of their last 5 and needed a win in their last to become bowl eligible and if you saw that game they were highly motivated and played that way. also, their o-line was musical chairs for much of the season, but finally settled on the same unit for the last 3 or 4 games, and they gashed so carolina, who's got a pretty solid defense, on the ground in a rivalry game to make it to a bowl...even though it's the gator, it's still a new year's day bowl and they travel well

look forward to discussing other games as well but these two were definitely on my mind right away

:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

GL GoSooners,

just a note, Pellini is no longer interim, CU gave him the fulltime gig...

edit: whoops just saw the previous poster addressed that :drink:

 

[GoSooners]

Yeah fellows, I used the wrong word in interim. Let's just call it a midseason replacement/HC conversion. At any rate this probably won't have a great deal of bearing on this game. Trent... My thoughts are far from being set in stone. These are simply first impressions. I do have a feeling that the ACC will be a little stronger in this bowl season than some think. I'll look into Clemson a little more since it wasn't a team that I followed much during the season. Will do some more discussions on these games as they go.

Jimmy, any thoughts on Wake/Navy? My first thought about this game is Wake has seen this option attack already, and it could help them here. I also saw the first meeting of these teams and Wake turned the ball over 6 times in that game. So I'm leaning towards Wake here.

 

[whiskeybent]

GS.....can't thank you enough for putting in the effort to break down the dogs. Quick question: last year you had final stat numbers for each set of games. I forget exactly what it signified, but it seemed the greater the number, the bigger the play. Could you post those again? Thanks

 

[jimmyshivers]

Yeah fellows, I used the wrong word in interim. Let's just call it a midseason replacement/HC conversion. At any rate this probably won't have a great deal of bearing on this game. Trent... My thoughts are far from being set in stone. These are simply first impressions. I do have a feeling that the ACC will be a little stronger in this bowl season than some think. I'll look into Clemson a little more since it wasn't a team that I followed much during the season. Will do some more discussions on these games as they go.

Jimmy, any thoughts on Wake/Navy? My first thought about this game is Wake has seen this option attack already, and it could help them here. I also saw the first meeting of these teams and Wake turned the ball over 6 times in that game. So I'm leaning towards Wake here. Too much experience and quality coaching for the Deacs to just lay down here...

GS, think Clemson is a solid pick if you happen to get on it, they are playing alot better @ the end of the season and I think a guy like Swinney will have his boys on a bit of a redemption angle in this game. I wouldnt rely on it for a big play but I think they are the right side in this game.

As far as Wake/Navy I haven't broken down this game yet but I think the rematch favors an experienced team like WF. This will be a play of mine as I think Wake will not overlook the Midshipmen this time around. Of course, not having 6 turnovers would help a great deal.

I also lean towards wisconsin, but honestly I haven't broken it down yet.

 

[Conan]

GoSooners,

If you can, if you have the time, I think LA Tech would be worth taking a good look at. Both teams know they are fortunate to be in the bowl picture but this game is huge for Derek Dooley and LA Tech. They've been the WAC doormat for years and years until Dooley was hired to see if he could revive the program. He's taken his team from noplace to being a pain-in-the ass for the rest of the WAC in just 2 years. He has major connections in the South, his dad being the former coach at UGA, Vince Dooley and as expected, recruiting has gone well. My guess is that Derek Dooley will be coaching in the SEC one day. He looks like he's on his way.

The game is in Shreveport so it's basically a home game for the bulldogs. What a treat for the students and alumni after many years of dismal football to be playing in a bowl. There's a certain air of excitement to this game that a lot of people here wouldn't know about.

 

[GoSooners]

GS.....can't thank you enough for putting in the effort to break down the dogs. Quick question: last year you had final stat numbers for each set of games. I forget exactly what it signified, but it seemed the greater the number, the bigger the play. Could you post those again? Thanks

I can't remember exactly what I did pertaining to the final numbers. You might be talking about the final yards per carry stat and who has the + or - in the game. For instance this year Colorado State has the better ypc of +.01 over Fresno. Which is the slimmest of margins. A friend of mine actually does these ypc numbers. I might be able to get him to give me the number advantage for each team as we go. And your right about it being the higher the number the better. By the way, one possible running that i didn't list was Virginia Tech. VT and Cincy are +/- even with the numbers. So VT could possibly be the running dogs. But it's borderline.

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners,

If you can, if you have the time, I think LA Tech would be worth taking a good look at. Both teams know they are fortunate to be in the bowl picture but this game is huge for Derek Dooley and LA Tech. They've been the WAC doormat for years and years until Dooley was hired to see if he could revive the program. He's taken his team from noplace to being a pain-in-the ass for the rest of the WAC in just 2 years. He has major connections in the South, his dad being the former coach at UGA, Vince Dooley and as expected, recruiting has gone well. My guess is that Vince Dooley will be coaching in the SEC one day. He looks like he's on his way.

The game is in Shreveport so it's basically a home game for the bulldogs. What a treat for the students and alumni after many years of dismal football being played there. There's a certain air of excitement to this game that a lot of people here wouldn't know about.

Conan...I've already looked at La Tech. And since I haven't seen anything surrounding the game to make me think differently, I'll be on La Tech because they are a "running dog" system play. I see no reason why they can't cover here.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, think Clemson is a solid pick if you happen to get on it, they are playing alot better @ the end of the season and I think a guy like Swinney will have his boys on a bit of a redemption angle in this game. I wouldnt rely on it for a big play but I think they are the right side in this game.

As far as Wake/Navy I haven't broken down this game yet but I think the rematch favors an experienced team like WF. This will be a play of mine as I think Wake will not overlook the Midshipmen this time around. Of course, not having 6 turnovers would help a great deal.

I also lean towards wisconsin, but honestly I haven't broken it down yet.

Jimmy....I'll take a look at Clemson's last 4 or 5 games and see if the stats bear out how much they have improved since Bowden left. Nebraska was in my system as a running dog based on a full season of football. But if Clemson is running the ball better or stopping the run better than they were in the first half of the season, then this could get me off Nebraska. I'll dig a little deeper into the game when we get to it.

 

[GoSooners]

Look forward to following this thread Sooners! I was eying Western Mich. and Miss before but now that it's in this system, I like them that much more. GL!

I really like Ole Miss. But I would be careful with Western Michigan. This is a game that I'm going to have to look at a little deeper. From everything that I've read, Rice is going to be very motivated here. Like I stated above, they would love to get to that 10 win mark for the second time in their school's history. Plus with the game in Houston, this is like a home game for Rice.

 

[trentmoney]

Jimmy....I'll take a look at Clemson's last 4 or 5 games and see if the stats bear out how much they have improved since Bowden left. Nebraska was in my system as a running dog based on a full season of football. But if Clemson is running the ball better or stopping the run better than they were in the first half of the season, then this could get me off Nebraska. I'll dig a little deeper into the game when we get to it.

i think clemson has too much speed on both sides of the ball for nebraska...they also have one of the best and most experienced secondaries in the countries-all 4 starters are returners from last year, 2 of which are multi-year starters.

it's said that the B12 doesn't play any defense, but obviously teams like texas and oklahoma do, they just find themselves in high-scoring games...but from what i've seen of nebraska, they don't play defense!! v tech is one of the worst offensive teams in the country and they had one of their best performances @ nebraska, and in the colorado game the huskers just looked out of place and gave up a bunch of big plays...at this point of the season the numbers usually describe who you are, and if you're not a good defensive team, which includes being in the right position and making open-field tackles, the numbers usually bear that out...i'm thinking nebraska just isn't a good defensive team.

thoughts..??

 

[trentmoney]

I really like Ole Miss. But I would be careful with Western Michigan. This is a game that I'm going to have to look at a little deeper. From everything that I've read, Rice is going to be very motivated here. Like I stated above, they would love to get to that 10 win mark for the second time in their school's history. Plus with the game in Houston, this is like a home game for Rice.

GS-
i know we both made some good $$$ on ole miss this year, and i will be on them again... i'm just worried that tex tech offense, with the quick passing game, might negate the miss d-line and exploit their secondary. i'll be on them, i just don't know for how much because of this

 

[whiskeybent]

I can't remember exactly what I did pertaining to the final numbers. You might be talking about the final yards per carry stat and who has the + or - in the game. For instance this year Colorado State has the better ypc of +.01 over Fresno. Which is the slimmest of margins. A friend of mine actually does these ypc numbers. I might be able to get him to give me the number advantage for each team as we go. And your right about it being the higher the number the better. By the way, one possible running that i didn't list was Virginia Tech. VT and Cincy are +/- even with the numbers. So VT could possibly be the running dogs. But it's borderline.

Yep, its all coming back to me. In my notes I have ECU +.20 over Boise, Wake +.66 over Uconn, Georgia 2.9 over Hawaii, etc from last year and we all remember how those turned out......cover, cover, cover.
If you do get those and post that would be the best.....they were INVALUABLE!!!!!
Better yet I wish I could learn how the #'s come about!
Thanks!

 

[GoSooners]

i think clemson has too much speed on both sides of the ball for nebraska...they also have one of the best and most experienced secondaries in the countries-all 4 starters are returners from last year, 2 of which are multi-year starters.

it's said that the B12 doesn't play any defense, but obviously teams like texas and oklahoma do, they just find themselves in high-scoring games...but from what i've seen of nebraska, they don't play defense!! v tech is one of the worst offensive teams in the country and they had one of their best performances @ nebraska, and in the colorado game the huskers just looked out of place and gave up a bunch of big plays...at this point of the season the numbers usually describe who you are, and if you're not a good defensive team, which includes being in the right position and making open-field tackles, the numbers usually bear that out...i'm thinking nebraska just isn't a good defensive team.

thoughts..??

Trent....Nebraska isn't a very good defensive team because of a combination of youth and injuries this year. They have a good DL. But losing their star DE Turner for the year really hurt. And then their other defensive star Cody Glenn has been suspended and hasn't played for the last few games. I'll have to look and see if he's coming back for the bowl. He was basically the only really good experience they had back there. Nebraska is a little different team, especially on offense, than they were when they played VT. After getting hammered by Missouri the game after VT, they changed their schemes up and simplified them on offense. And it's worked well for them ever since. And Ganz has really improved as the season has gone. But they have basically had to outscore teams to win their games. The only question I have is if Clemson has enough offense to outscore them.

 

[GoSooners]

GS-
i know we both made some good $$$ on ole miss this year, and i will be on them again... i'm just worried that tex tech offense, with the quick passing game, might negate the miss d-line and exploit their secondary. i'll be on them, i just don't know for how much because of this

Trent...I think the main problem that Texas Tech is going to have here is their defense. They just aren't a physical team like Ole Miss. If you remember, OU really pounded them with their OL and rushing. And TT doesn't have a good history against physical offenses. Ole Miss is probably capable of doing the same thing as OU did. Or close anyway. I remember watching the Ole Miss/Florida game earleir this year. And Ole Miss basically beat Florida by outmuscling them on both lines. Texas Tech reminds me a little bit of Florida in that they are more of a finesse team with a lot of speed in their skill positions. I'm just not sure TT can take the pounding on defense. The way Ole Miss played at the end of the year, i can see them controlling the game on offense and keeping Harrell on the sidelines. In my opinion, toward the end of the season Ole Miss was the second best team in the SEC behind Florida. I'll tell you another bet I like with this game that may be even better. Ole Miss for a first half play. Texas Tech plays an offense that has to be in sync more than most offenses to be successful. And they are notorious slow starters in these bowl games because of the long layoff. They might possibly be able to come back in the second half and beat Ole Miss. Although i doubt they cover. But I know i will have a first half bet on Ole Miss in this game.