I had a good opening Big 12 weekend hitting all of the games except the Western Michigan against Nebraska. It was a great debut for Bo Pelini. Better than I thought he would have..And it beats the hell out the debuts by Mike Sherman and Art Briles at Texas A&M and Baylor. A&M should be embarassed losing to a Sunbelt team at home who was pretty much rebuilding themselves. Texas A&M might turn into a complete fade for me this year. They don't have the right players to run their new spread/west coast/whatever offense. And after allowing over 200 yards rushing to Arky St. they also lack some serious muscle on defense. This looks like a tough week in the Big 12 because of the amount of double digit spreads we have. I liking a few "Running Dogs" this week.. And they actually did pretty well this past weekend. Kentucky hit for me against Louisville. But ECU was my top choice. A good running team playing at home against VT, a rebuilding ACC team and getting 10 points. It doesn't get much better than that. And of course Arky State was a good running dog. But the fool that I am, I just didn't have the balls to play that game. I'll see if I can find us a few running dog prospects to cherrypick this week.. I haven't decided if I'm going to play it yet, but Nevada is a running dog. They had over 400 yards rushing last week out of their "Pistol" offense. I'm going to see how the line moves with this game before I decide if I want to play them against Texas Tech. The thing that makes me nervous about that game is the Nevada defense. Or lack of it. But for running dogs, I feel that a good defense is more important to have on the road than at home...
Last Week:
** Plays 5-2
*** Plays 2-1
**** Plays 0-0
San Jose State at Nebraska...This will be a bit different game for the Huskers this week. They'll be going up against a team that emphasizes defense a bit more than the Western Michigan team. SJSU isn't a particuarly strong team in any category. But Dick Tomey teams do play good sound fundamental football. And of course he's always preached defense-first dating back to his "Desert Swarm" defense days at Arizona. So even though their offense has gotten off to a slow start this season, I do expect their defense to play a little better than WM's did against the Huskers. Especially the defensive line, which I feel is much stronger than Western Michigan's. And will test the Huskers run game. SJSU won't be nearly as potent in the pass game as WM was in scoring 24 on Nebraska. And CAL transfer Reed looks like he's still in transition with this team. And it may take him a few games to get started. Especially in his first game on the road.. Plus I really don't see the excitement for the Huskers coming into this game as they had last week in Pelini's debut. And it could show up a little in their play. I can see Tomey's feisty group holding Nebraska in the 30's this week, and showing them they might have a little more work to do on offense to get ready for the Big 12. I don't see SJSU doing much themselves on offense, so I look for a 35-10 type of game. I wanted to get the total early here before it goes down any more..Taking the (UNDER 59) ***
Cincinnati at Oklahoma...This is another one of those double digit spreads that scare me a little. But I do look for the Sooners to be sky high for this one. And Stoops is taking this game very serious because of the great season this Cincy team had last year. And Kelly is one of the finest coaches in America. But the coach part is pretty much a wash in this game. So he'll have no advantage in Norman against Stoops. One big things going against Cincy in this spot is they no longer have QB Mauk. You don't lose a 60% 3,000 yard passer with a 31-9 ratio and not miss him. Their new QB Grutza is a senior who has had plenty of past experience. But there is a reason he played behind Mauk for the last two years. A 20-24 touchdown-int ratio. I think he's going to find the going tough in his first road trip as a starter in the snakepit of Norman. And I'm sure OU's two outstanding defensive ends will give him a nice welcome party. I do have some concerns with the OU secondary this season. But I think it's going to show up more on the road than it will this game. Cincy runs the spread offense, but OU has seen plenty of these in the Big 12. And they aren't going to be throwing much at OU that they haven't already seen from better QB's and passing teams in the conference. The big thing here is with a depleted RB corp I just don't think Cincy will be able to run on OU. And are going to be forced to go through the air. Which should in turn make added pressure to the QB... The main thing that hurts Cincy this year is losing 10 starters. And especially the 5 key players they lose on defense. And OU has pretty much had 100% focus on this game since they sleepwalked through Chattanooga last week. After last year's fiasco with OU losing in their BCS bowl game to another Big East team West Virginia, the Sooners are going to be looking for some bigtime payback and redemption of sorts. And I think they get here. When this line came out it was actually a little lower than I thought it would be. Which always makes me feel a bit better about my selections...Taking OU (-21) over Cincy ***
Last Week:
** Plays 5-2
*** Plays 2-1
**** Plays 0-0
San Jose State at Nebraska...This will be a bit different game for the Huskers this week. They'll be going up against a team that emphasizes defense a bit more than the Western Michigan team. SJSU isn't a particuarly strong team in any category. But Dick Tomey teams do play good sound fundamental football. And of course he's always preached defense-first dating back to his "Desert Swarm" defense days at Arizona. So even though their offense has gotten off to a slow start this season, I do expect their defense to play a little better than WM's did against the Huskers. Especially the defensive line, which I feel is much stronger than Western Michigan's. And will test the Huskers run game. SJSU won't be nearly as potent in the pass game as WM was in scoring 24 on Nebraska. And CAL transfer Reed looks like he's still in transition with this team. And it may take him a few games to get started. Especially in his first game on the road.. Plus I really don't see the excitement for the Huskers coming into this game as they had last week in Pelini's debut. And it could show up a little in their play. I can see Tomey's feisty group holding Nebraska in the 30's this week, and showing them they might have a little more work to do on offense to get ready for the Big 12. I don't see SJSU doing much themselves on offense, so I look for a 35-10 type of game. I wanted to get the total early here before it goes down any more..Taking the (UNDER 59) ***
Cincinnati at Oklahoma...This is another one of those double digit spreads that scare me a little. But I do look for the Sooners to be sky high for this one. And Stoops is taking this game very serious because of the great season this Cincy team had last year. And Kelly is one of the finest coaches in America. But the coach part is pretty much a wash in this game. So he'll have no advantage in Norman against Stoops. One big things going against Cincy in this spot is they no longer have QB Mauk. You don't lose a 60% 3,000 yard passer with a 31-9 ratio and not miss him. Their new QB Grutza is a senior who has had plenty of past experience. But there is a reason he played behind Mauk for the last two years. A 20-24 touchdown-int ratio. I think he's going to find the going tough in his first road trip as a starter in the snakepit of Norman. And I'm sure OU's two outstanding defensive ends will give him a nice welcome party. I do have some concerns with the OU secondary this season. But I think it's going to show up more on the road than it will this game. Cincy runs the spread offense, but OU has seen plenty of these in the Big 12. And they aren't going to be throwing much at OU that they haven't already seen from better QB's and passing teams in the conference. The big thing here is with a depleted RB corp I just don't think Cincy will be able to run on OU. And are going to be forced to go through the air. Which should in turn make added pressure to the QB... The main thing that hurts Cincy this year is losing 10 starters. And especially the 5 key players they lose on defense. And OU has pretty much had 100% focus on this game since they sleepwalked through Chattanooga last week. After last year's fiasco with OU losing in their BCS bowl game to another Big East team West Virginia, the Sooners are going to be looking for some bigtime payback and redemption of sorts. And I think they get here. When this line came out it was actually a little lower than I thought it would be. Which always makes me feel a bit better about my selections...Taking OU (-21) over Cincy ***
