GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 9-27

[GoSooners]

I've got one game that I want to put in early this week while we can still get a good line. We've got a couple good Big 12 games on tap this week..OU vs TCU and Nebraska vs Virginia Tech.

Season:

** Plays 14-15
*** Plays 7-6-1
**** Plays 4-0


Troy at Oklahoma State...This is one of those sweet revenge spots for OSU. Although I don't hold this angle in high regard, there are certain games where it means more than it does others..I believe this one means more because of the fact that OSU got embarassed by this Troy team on national television. And there is nothing worse than losing to an out of conference Sunbelt team for everyone to see. Besides being a bad weather game last year, OSU was also coming into that game without their leading RB Dantrell Savage, who was the team leader on a young team going on the road for just the second time.. It was also a game that was played the week before OSU's Big 12 opener with Texas Tech. So OSU had other things to deal with coming into that game. This year the shoe is on the other foot. This is a sandwich spot for Troy after playing Ohio State last week, and before their big game with Sunbelt rival Florida Atlantic, who upset Troy for the Sunbelt title in the last game of the season. So which team do you think Troy wants to beat the worst? By the way OSU beat this same FAU team 42-6 just the week before they played Troy last year. So this gives me one more reason to think Troy's win over OSU was a little on the fluke side. At any, no matter what you may think, the fact is OSU will have had two weeks off to prepare for this game. Troy is in a sandwich spot after a tough game with Ohio State. Sunbelt teams have a way of sneeking up on BCS teams. Especially ones who are early in the year are struggling on offense. That won't be happening here. Sunbelt teams have had many problems on the road when facing good BCS offenses. The last 3 years the scores when Troy faced good to great offensive teams on the road were 46-26, 59-21, 56-0, 52-21, 45-20. Which is the case here. I guarantee you this Okie State team's offense can run circles around the struggling Ohio State offense that Troy played last week. I expect OSU to put up at least 45 points in this game. And with Troy no longer with their star QB Omar Haugabook, and a couple key WR's along with a starting RB, this team won't be nearly as potent on offense this season. Troy is only averaging a little over 300 ypg total offense against division 1 teams this year. And I don't see them doing much better here despite facing just an average Big 12 defense. So in the case of these two teams Troy is down a notch. OSU is up a couple notches. Sandwich spot for Troy. Two weeks to prepare for OSU. Plus a HUGE QB advantage for OSU. The Pokes are the home team this year. And they are laying in waiting. I expect a 49-17 type of game. Get this line early!...Taking OSU (-16.5) over Troy ***

 

[Jlip9]

not a huge fan of this line. Troy has proven many times over that they fear nobody. OSU is consistently inconsistent . Best of luck to ya here

 

[GoSooners]

not a huge fan of this line. Troy has proven many times over that they fear nobody. OSU is consistently inconsistent . Best of luck to ya here

I understand the part about Troy fearing nobody...But not fearing a team and being competetive are two different things. True that OSU has been inconsistent. But most of their inconsistency has come on the road..Not at home..The facts are that better Troy teams than this one have not been competetive on the road against good offensive teams. And last week they lost by 18 points to a disjointed Ohio State team who had just got killed the week before by USC, and barely got by Ohio the week before that. OSU will show Troy many more horses on offense than they've seen this year so far...Good luck.

 

[ICC]

Do you think any part of Troy not competing last year on the road against good teams where that Franklin simply didnt have the althetes to try and run his up-tempo game against stronger and faster defenders that can tackle? I dont know much about either of these two teams, but I would imagine Troy gave up a lot of points on the road the last couple years because they were running an up-tempo offense that didnt have the athletes to compete with bigger schools and then were worn down on the defensive side of the ball eventually. I havent watched Troy play much this season, but what I have seen is a different type of offense that focuses more on controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field. With Troy ranking in the Top 11 in total defense and Top 5 in terms of Pass defense, do you worry they will be able to stack the box and try to overload on this #2 rushing offense? I think that last week Troy did a solid job in stopping the OSU running game which features a better offensive line than this OSU, and they were beat by Pryor's ability to get out of the pocket and make plays. Do you see Oklahoma St. being able to do the same thing? I remember seeing 8 or 9 men in the box against Ohio St and I think we see something very similar next week. That being said, what a terriable let down spot for Troy this week going on the road. Good luck, curious to your thoughts.

 

[eaglesfannyc]

GoSooners - looking forward to your analysis of Oklahoma TCU. Line opened at 17.5. The way the sooners have been playing, I just cant see anyone stopping them. They have so many different looks on O and have had great execution. As always, I appreciate all the time and effort you put into these games.

 

[GoSooners]

Do you think any part of Troy not competing last year on the road against good teams where that Franklin simply didnt have the althetes to try and run his up-tempo game against stronger and faster defenders that can tackle? I dont know much about either of these two teams, but I would imagine Troy gave up a lot of points on the road the last couple years because they were running an up-tempo offense that didnt have the athletes to compete with bigger schools and then were worn down on the defensive side of the ball eventually. I havent watched Troy play much this season, but what I have seen is a different type of offense that focuses more on controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field. With Troy ranking in the Top 11 in total defense and Top 5 in terms of Pass defense, do you worry they will be able to stack the box and try to overload on this #2 rushing offense? I think that last week Troy did a solid job in stopping the OSU running game which features a better offensive line than this OSU, and they were beat by Pryor's ability to get out of the pocket and make plays. Do you see Oklahoma St. being able to do the same thing? I remember seeing 8 or 9 men in the box against Ohio St and I think we see something very similar next week. That being said, what a terriable let down spot for Troy this week going on the road. Good luck, curious to your thoughts.

Keep in mind that Ohio State is a team in transistion right now with their QB situation. And they were also without Beanie Wells for that game. So with a QB Pryor, who is primarily known for his mobility and running ability than his passing, Troy's best gameplan was to stack the line. They absolutely will NOT be able to do this against OSU. If they stack the line Zac Robinson will go over the top to some of the best receivers in the Big 12. Plus like Pryor, Robinson is also a mobile QB who ran for almost a 1000 yards last season. Troy will not face this kind of offensive attack the rest of the season. And I expect their defensive stats to take a plunge this week. I believe what your going to see is OSU controlling the ball with a much more balanced offense than Ohio State had. OSU is very good at nickel and diming their way down the field. Mainly because Robisnon has Brandon Pettigrew as his go to man in short yardage situations. I consider Pettigrew the premier tight end in the country. Troy has their hands full here. And I still don't believe this game will have their total attention with FAU on board the next week.

 

[winddust]

sooners i really love nebraska this week. I think va tech is a shit team and there offense is pathetic. How they won last week is beyond me and how people think va tech is good is amazing. I think huskers can move the ball on them and I do not see va tech scoring very many points. I always like to back a great coach when he has an extra week to prepare. I just do not see how va tech can be in this game. Early i see people loving va tech. I want to get down on it big today but I wanted to see what you thought first.

 

[GoSooners]

sooners i really love nebraska this week. I think va tech is a shit team and there offense is pathetic. How they won last week is beyond me and how people think va tech is good is amazing. I think huskers can move the ball on them and I do not see va tech scoring very many points. I always like to back a great coach when he has an extra week to prepare. I just do not see how va tech can be in this game. Early i see people loving va tech. I want to get down on it big today but I wanted to see what you thought first.

My first thought is going with Nebraska. But I honestly haven't looked at the game yet. I will tonight when I get my data for the game. This will probably be a late week play for me. I would like to see what the line does, if anything. I'm agreement with you that the ACC with the exception of Wake, isn't very good at all this year. But the thing you have to be careful with on VT is defense and special teams. They can turn a game around in a hurry, and make it closer than it should. So you don't want to give away too many points here..Remember, your starting this game out and your already 7 points in the hole by taking Nebraska in what I think should be a low scoring game..

 

[GoBlue34]

I'm wanting Nebraska to win so I can't comment on that game.

As for OSU, that's the side I would take as well. Troy to me isn't the Troy of old (or even last year) even though they were some-what competitive against Ohio State. This is a revenge game for Okie State and their defense is MUCH improved over last year with an influx of juco players.

Good luck this week Sooner.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

like the public perception angle here as well. Troy St. has covered every game thus far according to my records. Most importantly they covered against a high profile team on the road and now they're going against a low profile team in OSU . They happen to be favored by only one point less than the number they lost by hmmmm..... I think you get the gist of it. =]]]

 

[Xmas32]

I think the revenge factor is an overplayed angle personally. However, coaches are showing no mercy to OOC teams this year especially at home. If OSU had a sterner test on tap for next week I might be a little leery of laying this much chalk, but they play A&M next week, who is complete shambles. With the two week period to prepare for this game, plus a little bit for the Big 12 opener the following week. I think Troy will have OSU's undivided attention this week. Gundy will have no qualms running it up against Troy, and I expect to see the starters into the 4th quarter.

 

[GoSooners]

like the public perception angle here as well. Troy St. has covered every game thus far according to my records. Most importantly they covered against a high profile team on the road and now they're going against a low profile team in OSU . They happen to be favored by only one point less than the number they lost by hmmmm..... I think you get the gist of it. =]]]

You hit the nail on the head..Line value is everything. Just like last week when I thought we got some great line value with Marshall at +8 with two evenly matched teams. It's all about public perception.

 

[GoSooners]

I think the revenge factor is an overplayed angle personally. However, coaches are showing no mercy to OOC teams this year especially at home. If OSU had a sterner test on tap for next week I might be a little leery of laying this much chalk, but they play A&M next week, who is complete shambles. With the two week period to prepare for this game, plus a little bit for the Big 12 opener the following week. I think Troy will have OSU's undivided attention this week. Gundy will have no qualms running it up against Troy, and I expect to see the starters into the 4th quarter.

I agree with you about the revenge angle being overplayed..But that aside I think this year's OSU team is 4 TD's better than Troy under just about any circumstances. And I think it would take a HUGE effort on the part of the Troy defense to keep this game respectable. Plus I know Gundy. He might just run the score up and beat the hell out of this team to send a message to Texas A&M next week. And believe me, OSU wants the Aggies in the worst way because of losing two tight games to them the last couple of years in a row..

 

[silver7]

Pokes One Of My 1st Looks

Played it, and may do it again, depending on movement. BOL

 

[GoSooners]

Played it, and may do it again, depending on movement. BOL

Silver...This is one game that I pretty much had on my radar screen before the season even started. And neither of these two teams have done anything different to sway my opnion. Hopefully the public takes the view that this Troy team is the real deal after the Ohio State game, and we can keep the line in the general vicinity of where it's at now..If we can, then this could be an even stronger play for me at the end of the week.....Good luck

 

[VoiceofReason101]

GS did you get my PM

 

[GoSooners]

GS did you get my PM

VR...Got it....Thanks

 

[trentmoney]

GS-

i'm already on this as well for a good-size play... and it has absolutely nothing to do w/ revenge, which is the most over-rated aspect of handicapping

ok st has problems w/ penetrating def lines as their delay-running game can get blown up in backfield (see uga and oklahoma last yr) as well as struggling on the road... don't see either being a problem in this matchup

good luck

 

[Dialer]

GS, what do you think about KSU -20.5 over ULL. KSU seems to beat bad teams by a lot of points. How good is ULL?

 

[GoSooners]

GS-

i'm already on this as well for a good-size play... and it has absolutely nothing to do w/ revenge, which is the most over-rated aspect of handicapping

ok st has problems w/ penetrating def lines as their delay-running game can get blown up in backfield (see uga and oklahoma last yr) as well as struggling on the road... don't see either being a problem in this matchup

good luck

Trent...I just heard Gundy and some of the players say the exact same words about the revenge aspect not being a factor with them...But I think the main thing here is whether or not these players have had Troy on their minds, they've still had two weeks to rest and prepare for this team. And I'm sure they've been working a little on Texas A&M's schemes as well. But as you know, matchups aside, this is a great play from a public perception and line value standpoint. That's why I got the line and put it in today while it's still at a reasonable number...Good luck