GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 9-20

[GoSooners]

The Big 12 went 6-2 last week. And if you got a good line in the Texas Tech and Kansas games the Big 12 was a perfect 7-0 ATS against Division 1 teams. Something tells me the Big 12 won't repeat that performance this week. It's looking like it's the Big 12 vs the Big East this week with 3 games scheduled against that conference. So far the Big 12 is 1-1 against the BE. Plus we'll get to see a Big 12 game everyday this week starting Wednesday...Good luck to all. But tread carefully on the Big 12 this week.

Season Record:

** Plays 11-10
*** Plays 6-2-1
**** Plays 2-0

Wednesday:

Kansas State at Louisville...With Louisville we have a team who returns just 9 starters. But the team is not quite as helpless as everybody that I've seen on here thinks. They still have Hunter Cantwell, who I consider one of the top NFL QB prospects in the country. By the way, Cantrell is no spring chicken. He is the one who took the place of a hurt Brian Brohm two years ago when the Cards went to Manhattan and knocked off Kansas St. in a very hostile enviornment. Don't judge this QB by one poor performance against Kentucky. I bet he don't have too many 3 interception games this year like he had against the Cats. And I bet he don't have it in this game. Besides the QB position, the Cards also have a strong defensive line. And they have a good RB corp running behind an O-Line that will be at least as good as least season's line. Louisville could very well be the running dogs here. I also think too much has been put on Louisville's performance in their first game with Kentucky. DON'T put too much emphasis on one game! This is the biggest mistake I see people make around here. Half of the plays are determined by what a team did or didn't do last week..Stop doing it! Remember Maryland last week and their loss to a Sunbelt team the week before? They went from a putrid team to a team that knocked off a 14 point CAL team who was riding high and going to clean up on those Terps...Let me say this again. Stop doing it! Teams very seldom play the same game twice.

On the other side, KSU is bringing back just 12 starters from last season's 5-7 team. And HC Prince went out and got the biggest influx of JUCO's (19) that has probably ever been gotten in the history of college football. This is a ridiculous amount of JC's that may or may not work out. Keep in mind that some JUCO's adjust to Division 1 football with realative ease. Others never adjust to it at all. It is a 50/50 proposition at best. And you never know what your going to get early in the season when all of these strangers are thrown together to try to have some resemblence of a Division 1 outfit. It's a gamble. There's no other word for it. Nobody on here knows for sure how this group is going to work out when they go up against a BCS conference team for the first time on the road. Unless your Nostradamus. Let me give you a little rundown of KSU's MO the last couple years under Prince. They gather their JUCO''s together, make sure they schedule a division 2 team, and a division 1 cupcake. Then they get their asses beat when the first time they play a BCS team. Now granted last season they played Auburn in their first game. But let's not get overly excited about that game since Auburn's offense was in total dissaray and they lost 2 out of their first 3 games. The year before that KSU beat Marshall and Florida Atlantic by a combined score of 78-7, then went on the road for the first time and lost to Baylor. Freeman is a good QB. And he is also a NFL prospect. But he's got nobody to throw to but JUCO's How are these kids going to perform against a BCS team? WR Jordy Nelson was a big loss out of this group. KSU also lost a 1000 rusher. So how is this group going to perform? KSU uses a 34 defense, with alot of new faces on their 3 man front. How is this group going to perform against a Louisville running attack? Louisville had 250 yards rushing against Tenn Rech last week. Granted it was Tenn. Tech. But performances like that can bring the confidence level back to an offense faster than any words from a coach. And I think they'll be much sharper coming into this game.

What it comes down to it this is two teams with a lot of questions with two NFL caliber QB's. This game will probably be higher scoring than people think. Keep in mind that Louisville gained as many yards as Kentucky the first game. But had 5 turnovers that killed any chance the Cards had. I would be very surprised if they weren't much sharper here...Taking the running dogs who have been in their "comfort zone" at home for the last 3 weeks against KSU JUCO's hitting the road for the first time...Louisville (+4) over Kansas State ***

 

[core42]

I'm on it...thanks!!!!

 

[GoSooners]

Here is a very good article that was sent to me this week about the Big 12 weaknesses...Naturally some of these things will be corrected...But take heed...


Mike Finger - Express-News
<!--END STORY CREDIT/RSS--><!--STORY CONTENT-->Texas Tech coach Mike Leach on Saturday ripped the performances of the players generally regarded as the best on his team, saying his quarterback, Graham Harrell, and his receivers, led by Michael Crabtree, “are holding us back.” Other Big 12 coaches aren't quite as candid as Leach, but what if they were? Mike Finger takes a look at the units that could prove to be some of the league's more notable Achilles' heels:
No. 2 Oklahoma
The Sooners excel at just about every position, but if they do have a weak spot, it is probably in the punting game. Mike Knall's leg hasn't been a weapon thus far, as OU averages only 34.1 yards in net punting (65th in the country), and the Sooners don't run back punts very well, either. They're getting only 6 yards per return, which ranks 88th.
No. 5 Missouri
The Tigers brought back their entire starting secondary from last season, but was that a good thing? They're giving up 293 passing yards per game (109th nationally) so far, which means that when they start facing the elite quarterbacks in the Big 12, Chase Daniel and company will be hard-pressed to keep up.
No. 7 Texas
Youth is working better for the Longhorns than experience is for Missouri, but just barely. Of the top-10 defensive backs on UT's depth chart, six are freshmen and two are sophomores. Through the first two games, they rank 98th nationally in giving up 261 yards per game, but if they can keep those kind of numbers against Daniel, Sam Bradford and Harrell, they'll take it.
No. 11 Texas Tech
OK, this is starting to become a trend. There may be a reason everyone in the Big 12 throws the ball. Seemingly no one can stop the pass. The Red Raiders' defensive backs have had their moments — they intercepted five passes against SMU — but they've still given up too many big plays. They rank 105th in the country with 272 passing yards allowed per game.
No. 19 Kansas
Coach Mark Mangino insists he is not worried about his team's rushing attack, but he might need to start getting concerned. Through three games the Jayhawks still haven't found a consistent runner, and they rank 105th nationally, averaging just 105 rushing yards.
Oklahoma State
If the Cowboys hope to break into the upper echelon of the Big 12, they'll need to improve their defensive front. OSU lost three linemen from last season, and the replacements aren't delivering. The Cowboys are struggling to apply any kind of pressure, ranking among the nation's worst 20 teams in sacks (just 0.7 per game) and tackles for loss (4.33 per game).
Nebraska
Did we mention the Big 12 could use some help in the secondary? Defensive guru Bo Pelini hasn't been able to come up with a plan to slow opposing quarterbacks, as his team is giving up 270 passing yards per game, 103rd in the country.
Texas A&M
Although the Aggies have been bullied up front on defense (they're 113th nationally in rushing yards allowed), the bigger worry is an offensive line that has looked overmatched. A&M's big fellas have yielded 3 1/2 sacks per game (114th in the country) and, despite having a stable of dangerous backs running behind them, only managed to clear the way for 112 rushing yards per game (95th). That could make for a long year.

 

[sportsmonitor]

DON'T put too much emphasis on one game! This is the biggest mistake I see people make around here. Half of the plays are determined by what a team did or didn't do last week..Stop doing it! Remember Maryland last week and their loss to a Sunbelt team the week before?

Your right about that and I'm sure there are several more examples besides Maryland.
You might also be correct about KSU's juco players as well this game, especially on defense. We'll definately know one way or the other after this game. I don't think Freeman has forgotten about the game 2 yrs ago when L'ville was ranked #8 and beat them in Manhattan. I believe Freeman will have a good game no matter who he has to throw to and the Over looks awfully tempting. Home team +4 pts. is hard to pass up in a game like this.

 

[sportsmonitor]

No. 19 Kansas
Coach Mark Mangino insists he is not worried about his team's rushing attack, but he might need to start getting concerned. Through three games the Jayhawks still haven't found a consistent runner, and they rank 105th nationally, averaging just 105 rushing yards.

This is definately going to kill KU more than they Mangino thinks it will this year.

 

[echamp76]

I like KSU in this one, UL wasn't a good team last year when Brohm was the QB, I don't think Cantwell has the targets to do much. To add, I just watched College Football now on NFLN. UL's best OL and pro prospect Eric Wood is doubtful, he is the center. Big East hasn't done anything outside of Uconn and S. Florida this year, I will ride the Big 12 on Wednesday and Thrusday with the CU ML, WVU's coach is toatally lost and the Mounties are so one demensional now the Reynaud is gone.

 

[GoSooners]

I like KSU in this one, UL wasn't a good team last year when Brohm was the QB, I don't think Cantwell has the targets to do much. To add, I just watched College Football now on NFLN. UL's best OL and pro prospect Eric Wood is doubtful, he is the center. Big East hasn't done anything outside of Uconn and S. Florida this year, I will ride the Big 12 on Wednesday and Thrusday with the CU ML, WVU's coach is toatally lost and the Mounties are so one demensional now the Reynaud is gone.

The receiver corp for Louisville will be about on the same par as KSU. The Cards also suffered some losses. But i think where Louisville will have the advantage is in the rushing game. We'll have to see about OL Wood. I see no disclosed report anywhere that this player is hurt.. But he does have two seniors backing him. I do see a disclosed report on KSU RB Patton. He was KSU's number 1 retuning rusher. And he's currently suspended indefinitely. If Lousiville is successful in the run game here like I think they will, they not only will keep Freeman off the field, it will open up the passing game for Cantrell. I think you'll see a different Louisville team than you saw in the first game. Also Louisville got a new DC this season Ron English from Michigan. He's one of the best out there. I look for Louisville to be better on that side of the ball this season.

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

The passing yards per game rankings and numbers are Amazing! Something to key on when they are playing a predominant passing team. Thanks for the writeup and insight on the game GoSooners %^_

 

[krk1030]

This isn't exactly a huge game based on the teams, but it's on National TV. Who do you think the public will be on? Is it best to get the +4 now or could it go to 4.5 or 5?

 

[GoSooners]

A few other things I want to add about this game. KSU uses a 34 defense. Not too many teams use this defense. I think West Virginia does. And I think New England does in the NFL. But not many others. This defense is basically built to defend all of the spread offenses in the Big 12. And in KSU's first two games they played cupcake teams that weren't a threat in the run game. So what happened was take for example the North Texas game, the NT QB sat back in the pocket and had all day to pass. But he didn't have anybody to pass it to because every WR was covered. They weren't a threat to run, so KSU just hung back all day and knocked down passes and caused turnovers.. A team like Louisville will present a different problem for the 34 defense that KSU hasn't seen this year.. I guarantee you with that 3 man front that Louisville is going to try to pound this defense with the run. I think their game a couple weeks ago where they pounded the ball all day on Tenn. Tech was just a warmup for what they're going to do here. If any of you remember, I took Kentucky over this Louisville team in the first week because I thought Kentucky had the better defensive line and running game. But Louisville actually did a pretty good job on Kentucky holding them to just 63 yeards rushing to Louisville's 53. Louisville held Kentucky to just 200 total yards. You think Louisville could have done this last season? So many people just look at the faliure of the offense, and don't pay any attention to how well the defense is playing when put in impossible situations like they were in turning the ball over 5 times against Kentucky. It also amazes me at how KSU is getting blown up to be a great team and a big threat in the Big 12 this year...How do you know? With this many JUCO's anything can happen. Do you think if teams could win consistently with a big influx of JUCO's, that all the coaches wouldn't be going after them in droves? The truth is, alot of them just can't make the transistion from Juinior College ball to Division One ball. This is a big step for many players..So this will always be a big question mark with KSU as long as Prince does this...Former KSU coach Snyder was probably better at finding the best JC's for his system than any other coach in history. But remember, even he never got this many players. 10 a season would have been a big recruiting class for Snyder. And Snyder's system eventually failed him and he stepped down. Listen, nothing is for sure. KSU might really be this good, and Louisville this bad. But I can tell you that Pentrino didn't leave the shelves empty. This team still has alot of talent and a ton of speed. Something KSU hasn't had to deal with yet. I would rather gamble on the team who has had two weeks off to prepare. And in my opinion Kragthorpe is the much better coach with a much better staff. You can be sure that Louisville will be ready.

 

[GoSooners]

This isn't exactly a huge game based on the teams, but it's on National TV. Who do you think the public will be on? Is it best to get the +4 now or could it go to 4.5 or 5?

This line could go up since it started out at 3.5..I think I would jump on it if it hits the 4.5 mark. But I am the last person to ask what the public likes in a game. I'm terrible at predicting these things. Lately I've been playing games and then getting steamed an hour later. But I have no way of knowing these things. And personally I don't care. If I think I'm on the right side with a good line, I don't care what the public does afterwords. By the way I am going to get a little of Louisville on the ML too for a small play. (+160)....Good luck

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL gosooners...

 

[jbragg10]

At first when I saw the line on this game I was going to jump all over Kansas St.

The more I look at this game, the more I lean towards Louisville.

Probably a 1 star play for me.

Louisville's defense behind Ron English has been pretty good. I am interested to see how Louisville comes out tonight.

 

[GoSooners]

Thanks Pags...Good luck to you as well my friend:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

At first when I saw the line on this game I was going to jump all over Kansas St.

The more I look at this game, the more I lean towards Louisville.

Probably a 1 star play for me.

Louisville's defense behind Ron English has been pretty good. I am interested to see how Louisville comes out tonight.

JB...In cases like this, it's better to put blinders on to what your reading here about this game and these teams. Anything good or bad that posters are making of either team are mere assumptions. They don't know any more than we do. Your right, Ron English has instilled a much better gameplan and attitude into this defense than what the Cards had last year. They're still going to give up some yards to a good offensive opponent. But it is my belief that they won't come in droves like they did last season. Plus I think this defense could cause some turnovers tonight. KSU is -2 in turnover margin themselves. And that's not very good considering they've played two cupcakes. What are they going to do when they go up against a BCS team who hits back? I also think that last season HC Kragthorpe came into a bad situation, with players still bummed out and mad about Petrino's sudden departure. As a result there was some suspensions and defections, along with some overall bad play and no focus towards this new coaching staff. Well, all of those players are now gone, and Kragthorpe and this coaching staff can get down to business and concentrate on football. There's still as much talent left on this team as what KSU has coming back. And this is a better coaching staff by far than K-State's. They've had two weeks off coming off a good performance. I think these players are probably itching to hit somebody, and should be ready to go tonight.

 

[GoBlue34]

GL GooSooners, I'm taking K-State in this one because I've seen Louisville play against Kentucky and their offense was awful, downright terrible. Granted Kentucky has a good defense but I don't believe they were great. K-State's defense is not as good as Kentucky's or probably not but we simply don't know because Kansas State hasn't played anyone, but they did look really good even against 2 bad Div-1 teams.

No way I can take Louisville after seeing them lay such an egg on their home opener. If I were on them, I would hope they get off to a fast start or the crowd will start booing again like they did against Kentucky.

Usually I wouldn't post in another person's thread but since there was so much back and forth, I thought I would give my 2 cents. Big XII is scary good this year, I think they prove it again tonight that they may be the best conference top to bottom this year.

 

[GoSooners]

GL GooSooners, I'm taking K-State in this one because I've seen Louisville play against Kentucky and their offense was awful, downright terrible. Granted Kentucky has a good defense but I don't believe they were great. K-State's defense is not as good as Kentucky's or probably not but we simply don't know because Kansas State hasn't played anyone, but they did look really good even against 2 bad Div-1 teams.

No way I can take Louisville after seeing them lay such an egg on their home opener. If I were on them, I would hope they get off to a fast start or the crowd will start booing again like they did against Kentucky.

Usually I wouldn't post in another person's thread but since there was so much back and forth, I thought I would give my 2 cents. Big XII is scary good this year, I think they prove it again tonight that they may be the best conference top to bottom this year.

GoBlue...I can name you at least a dozen teams that looked absolutely awful in their first games..Notre Dame, Maryland, San Jose, Tennessee, Toledo come to mind off the top of my head. And none of these teams are as putrid as they looked in their first game. With 9 returning starters, it was understandable why Louisville didn't play a great game. Under good coaches, teams get better. Louisville isn't going to do the same things they did the first game. Who's to say that with the influx of JUCO's that KSU has, that they wouldn't have also laid an egg against Kentucky in their first game? Nobody has yet to expose KSU's weaknesses..And believe me they have them. As for the Big 12 being scary this year..Could be. But what does that have to do with KSU? Not every team in this conference are going to be worlbeaters..Somebody's got to lose.

 

[GoBlue34]

Maybe not but none of the teams got shut out in their first home game either.

With all the hype Hunter has, I have yet to see any reason to believe his is a big time QB. I have seen Freeman progress the past couple years and I know he is good.

I'm going with the better QB and the better team.

Strange things could happen but I like my chances. Was very surprised you were on Louisville. One of us will be wrong!

 

[parlayin]

I think you make some very cogent points here, GoSooners. If predicting outcomes is solely based on reacting to the past, we'd all be rich since hindsight is 20/20. Your ability to look beyond that to filter out anomalous performances and gauge a team's true level of performance is what makes you one of the most respected cappers here. I have no opinion on this game just yet, but I appreciate the analyses you provide in your posts. Keep up the good work

 

[JARBrigger]

Wow!! Not that I'm a genius or anything, but Parlayin' just used 3 words that I have no idea what they meant. That is why GoSooners is so good -- I can understand him!!

Like your points on Louisville. Think they are valid. Also like Kragthorp, as I agree w/ the player's unhappiness when he came in. I'll definitely take him and the new DC over Prince and his boys. Everything I can see here, 2 evenly matched teams and Louisville is playing at home catching points -- so I'm taking them.

Keep up the good work!