GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 12-6

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Seems like this season has gone fast. It hasn't been one of my better years, but nevertheless there is nothing more fun to me than capping, betting and watching football. Especially college football. Hopefully we can make a killing in the bowl season like we did last year. I should have my bowl thread up in a couple weeks. I plan on doing like I did last year and make a list of the running dogs, see how many of them are good plays, and then have some good discussions in the thread before we pull the trigger on a game. This is absolutely the best way to do it. Bowl games aren't easy to hit from even the best cappers. And the more information we get from everybody in the thread from their individual teams the better chance we have.

OSU coach Mike Gundy had the best idea this week that I've heard about solving our conference problems when it comes to picking the best team to represent this conference in a national championship game. And that would be to do away with the North and South Divisions of this conference which has been heavily tilted to the South for the last few years, and instead just go with the two highest rated BCS teams in the conference playing in the Big 12 CG at the end of the season. Sounds like a plan to me. This year it would have been an OU-Texas rematch that we all wanted to see, instead of OU having to go to Kansas City to play no better than the fifth best team in the conference and leaving Texas out in the cold. It's not right. And it makes no sense if you really want your best and highest rated team representing your conference in a BCS bowl. Really, I think the way the Pac-10 does it is the best. They play every team in 9 conference games. Even though we can't play all of the teams every year, going to a 9 game conference schedule with 3 non-conference games seems like the best way to go. Personally I think it should be that way for all of the conferences. It may not take all of the BCS controversy out of the equation. But it would take most of it out.

Like I've said here many times before, if you want to seriously become a BCS contender you have to toughen your non-conference schedule. And many teams to this day refuse to do it. I know at OU since day one Bob Stoops and AD Castiglione have made it a point to schedule at least one marquee game every year, and one good mid-major team. And in some years like this year OU has scheduled two BCS teams. And even though Washington wasn't any good this year, 7 to 10 years ago when OU scheduled them it was a different story. If your sick of seeing OU in BCS championship games instead of other teams, look no further than their schedule. And if you think this Texas BCS controversy hasn't happened before, OU's opponent FSU in the 2000 BCS championship game got beat in a head to head by Miami that year, yet FSU went to the title game with the same record based on their better SOS. And this is also why Auburn didn't beat out OU for the BCS title game in 2004. What is shocking to me is the teams that say they still don't care about their OOC schedule. And it surprised me even more when Mack Brown said that the Horns no longer desire to have one marquee non-conference opponent on their schedule. To me, if you don't do it, then don't complain when this comes up again, and you've got an identical record to a conference or a non-conference team that keeps you behind in the BCS computers. Like I said I was really surprised to hear this come out of Texas. By the way the Horns four opponenets next season are Wyoming, Central Florida, UTEP and La Monroe....Good luck. Teams better start learning to play the BCS game because I've got news for you, the BCS isn't going away. Not in 5 years. And probably not in 10 years. ESPN just signed a 5 year contract with the BCS. There is way the BCS is going away. There's too much money tied into this system and the bowls. And that money and those contracts won't end for a long time. The the majority of the university presidents and AD's are also against a playoff. And if they don't want it, it's never going to happen. Because they ARE the NCAA..And if you think that coming up with a feasible playoff system and the controversy surrounding this years BCS is going to help get things get changed all I've got to say is nuh-uh. I've got news for you, the BCS loves this controversy. It's giving them a ton of publicity. They love it. Teams better start learning to play the BCS game if they ever have a desire to play in one.


The Big 12 Championship:

OU (-16.5) over Missouri **
I'm not really big on the huge spread for this championship game. Especially since Missouri has nothing to lose here.. But right now I just can't bet against OU. Everything seems to be going their way including the lucky breaks like tipped balls and lucky bounces. They appear right now like they are not only good, but also have a little Karma on their side. Their playing a Missouri team who is a little banged up right now. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. And I've also heard that receivers Machlin and Coffman are hobbling around practice a little this week. There's no doubt that Missouri has a dangerous offense. But like last week, how many points is it going to take for them to cover this game? If you had told me that OSU was going to score 41 on OU last week, I would have bet the farm on OSU to cover in that game. But OU's offense is simply too high octane for the averge at best defenses that the Sooners have faced for the last few weeks. The best two defenses that OU faced this year was Texas and TCU. And nobody else in the Big 12 is even close to those defenses. With OU's running game in high gear, I don't see anybody outrushing them even though Missouri is a borderline running dog in this game. I believe Missouri could put up close to what OSU did last week and still not cover this spread. They just have too low rated of a pass defense to stay on the same field with them for 60 minutes. I think the Tigers might possibly give OU a good game through two quarters. But I wonder how much a wounded team who just came off an emotional 40-37 loss to Kansas has left in their tank for OU's no huddle offense in the second half. Missouri is still a dangerous team, which is why I'm not betting this game big. But with all of the media outlets in the country slamming OU this week and saying they don't deserve to go to this game over Texas, I can see it's only putting fuel on the fire with these OU players. Look for OU to play a better defensive game than you saw last week. And for the Sooners to rub it in a little here. We may not get quite as high a scoring game as expected in the cold night weather of kansas City. I'm looking for a 45-24 type of game.
 
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Looks good GS!, OU is definitely the right play. GL down this final stretch, continue to bang the book! :spanker:
 

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Great analysis as always....but I am leaning toward Missouri covering....
VD..The dog lover in me says take Missouri. But what I've seen OU do on the field in the last couple of weeks tells me to take the Sooners. But i do think the final score could fall close to the line. That's why i only bet it small. The thought of Stoops taking out the starters in the fourth quarter and Chase Daniel throwing a couple TD passes in junk time keeps me from playing this bigger...GL
 
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Your a true gentlemen and I want you to be aware that your the very first person on this forum that inspired me to try my hands on handicapping this sport. Guys such as yourself, Box, and Pags made me realize that I should not only pursue additional income on the much tougher NFL that this sport offers even greater possibilities. I commend you for all the time you've taken from your likely busy schedule to explain to us all how success can be attained. Your vision on match ups, angles, stats, and other factors are unparralled. GL this week and can't wait to talk bowls with you.

VOR
 

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Your a true gentlemen and I want you to be aware that your the very first person on this forum that inspired me to try my hands on handicapping this sport. Guys such as yourself, Box, and Pags made me realize that I should not only pursue additional income on the much tougher NFL that this sport offers even greater possibilities. I commend you for all the time you've taken from your likely busy schedule to explain to us all how success can be attained. Your vision on match ups, angles, stats, and other factors are unparralled. GL this week and can't wait to talk bowls with you.

VOR
VOR....Thanks for the kind words. But I think everybody knows by now that your one of the very best cappers on this site. And just by talking to you I can tell you know your stuff. So keep up the good work bud. Hopefully we can get out heads together and make a killing in these bowl games...Let's make the bookies weep. :toast:
 

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As Always

all the best to you my friend. Agree on the BD possibility w/Mo! I'm starting to have 2nd thoughts on the Gator/Tide game. Something tells me the loss of Harvin is going to trouble Fl more that Ol Urban lets on. I took Bama +10 for a med. bet. If Gators can roll the Tide by DD, then I think OU may have a problem. If the 2 do get to play, it s/b one of the all time great offensive shows. BOL on all your plays. :toast:
 

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A 45-24 type of game. With Mizzou's offensive tempo and lack of defense I could see OU scoring 50-60 pretty easily. Would you lean to the under 78?
 

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all the best to you my friend. Agree on the BD possibility w/Mo! I'm starting to have 2nd thoughts on the Gator/Tide game. Something tells me the loss of Harvin is going to trouble Fl more that Ol Urban lets on. I took Bama +10 for a med. bet. If Gators can roll the Tide by DD, then I think OU may have a problem. If the 2 do get to play, it s/b one of the all time great offensive shows. BOL on all your plays. :toast:
Silver...If Florida rolls the tide by DD you can count on one thing, they'll be favored over OU. And I like OU getting points against anybody this season. By the way, the Bama/Florida game is a hard game to cap. The numbers tell me to take Florida. But the matchups tell me to take Bama. Something that I heard from a pretty reliable source this week tells me that Bama is a very physically imposing team. They are sound. Like OU they have two great running backs. And they don't make mistakes. I can tell you from my expereiences from these kinds of teams in the past that they seldom get beat by double digits from anyone. Does anybody besides me think it's a little unusual for the number one team in the country to be double digit dogs? I think this is strictly a Las Vegas public perception line. I'm not sure Las Vegas really feels these two teams are that far apart. It's still a tough game to get a handle on because these teams don't play the same brand of football. But if it was me setting the line I would have set it closer to 7 than 10.
 

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sooners, i know this is the wrong thread, but you posted in another thread about tubberville. our local paper here had a story that MS state may be interested in talking to him.
 

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A 45-24 type of game. With Mizzou's offensive tempo and lack of defense I could see OU scoring 50-60 pretty easily. Would you lean to the under 78?
X-Caliber....The score I predicted is just a feeling. It's not based on any research on the totals for this game. OU isn't a hard team to research. They've scored over 60 points a game in their last 4 games with two of those teams having statistically better defenses than Missouri. But Big 12 games tends to be a little different. I can see Missouri pulling out all of the stops in this game and doing a lot of gambling on defense. Also i would check to see what the weather is going to be like in Kansas City. It wouldn't surprise me if the temperature is in the 20's or maybe low 30's. And I just have a feeling that OU will run the ball a bit more than they normally do here. I also look for the Sooners to play a better game on defense than they did last week. OSU was a very dangerous offensive team who can kill you two ways with the run and the pass. And I feel like Missouri isn't nearly as good of a running team as OSU. Plus I think the new grass sod turf could slow OU down a bit in this game.
 
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sooners, i know this is the wrong thread, but you posted in another thread about tubberville. our local paper here had a story that MS state may be interested in talking to him.
I think he would be a good fit at MSU. With his defensive philosophy he would be a good fit for any SEC school. Auburn's loss is MSU's gain.
 

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It looks like some of these teams are coming after OU's and OSU's coaches. OSU defensive coordinator Tim Beckman is expected to be named the new head coach of Toledo today. And I'm betting after OU's offensive performance this season that alot of teams will be knocking on the Sooners OC Kevin Wilson's door.
 

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I have a lot of questions about Missouri's state of mind here. They looked lackadaisical much of the last third of the season, coasting by teams they should have blown away. Then what had to be a dishearetening loss to a Kansas team that's way down this season compared to last.

The Tigers aren't going to a BCS game, a win or loss here isn't likely to affect their bowl bid, so they're basically playing simply to screw OU. Here in the "Can't Beat Texas Bowl" I'm just not sure that's enough to have them in high spirits.

Still, two touchdowns and a field goal is a lot to lay. But if I play this game, the OU angle will certainly be the one I take.
 

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Seems like this season has gone fast. It hasn't been one of my better years, but nevertheless there is nothing more fun to me than capping, betting and watching football. Especially college football. Hopefully we can make a killing in the bowl season like we did last year. I should have my bowl thread up in a couple weeks. I plan on doing like I did last year and make a list of the running dogs, see how many of them are good plays, and then have some good discussions in the thread before we pull the trigger on a game. This is absolutely the best way to do it. Bowl games aren't easy to hit from even the best cappers. And the more information we get from everybody in the thread from their individual teams the better chance we have.

OSU coach Mike Gundy had the best idea this week that I've heard about solving our conference problems when it comes to picking the best team to represent this conference in a national championship game. And that would be to do away with the North and South Divisions of this conference which has been heavily tilted to the South for the last few years, and instead just go with the two highest rated BCS teams in the conference playing in the Big 12 CG at the end of the season. Sounds like a plan to me. This year it would have been an OU-Texas rematch that we all wanted to see, instead of OU having to go to Kansas City to play no better than the fifth best team in the conference and leaving Texas out in the cold. It's not right. And it makes no sense if you really want your best and highest rated team representing your conference in a BCS bowl. Really, I think the way the Pac-10 does it is the best. They play every team in 9 conference games. Even though we can't play all of the teams every year, going to a 9 game conference schedule with 3 non-conference games seems like the best way to go. Personally I think it should be that way for all of the conferences. It may not take all of the BCS controversy out of the equation. But it would take most of it out.

Like I've said here many times before, if you want to seriously become a BCS contender you have to toughen your non-conference schedule. And many teams to this day refuse to do it. I know at OU since day one Bob Stoops and AD Castiglione have made it a point to schedule at least one marquee game every year, and one good mid-major team. And in some years like this year OU has scheduled two BCS teams. And even though Washington wasn't any good this year, 7 to 10 years ago when OU scheduled them it was a different story. If your sick of seeing OU in BCS championship games instead of other teams, look no further than their schedule. And if you think this Texas BCS controversy hasn't happened before, OU's opponent FSU in the 2000 BCS championship game got beat in a head to head by Miami that year, yet FSU went to the title game with the same record based on their better SOS. And this is also why Auburn didn't beat out OU for the BCS title game in 2004. What is shocking to me is the teams that say they still don't care about their OOC schedule. And it surprised me even more when Mack Brown said that the Horns no longer desire to have one marquee non-conference opponent on their schedule. To me, if you don't do it, then don't complain when this comes up again, and you've got an identical record to a conference or a non-conference team that keeps you behind in the BCS computers. Like I said I was really surprised to hear this come out of Texas. By the way the Horns four opponenets next season are Wyoming, Central Florida, UTEP and La Monroe....Good luck. Teams better start learning to play the BCS game because I've got news for you, the BCS isn't going away. Not in 5 years. And probably not in 10 years. ESPN just signed a 5 year contract with the BCS. There is way the BCS is going away. There's too much money tied into this system and the bowls. And that money and those contracts won't end for a long time. The the majority of the university presidents and AD's are also against a playoff. And if they don't want it, it's never going to happen. Because they ARE the NCAA..And if you think that coming up with a feasible playoff system and the controversy surrounding this years BCS is going to help get things get changed all I've got to say is nuh-uh. I've got news for you, the BCS loves this controversy. It's giving them a ton of publicity. They love it. Teams better start learning to play the BCS game if they ever have a desire to play in one.


BCS should never come into effect for deciding who wins your conference.

Just like how Oregon St would have won the tiebreaker by beating USC head to head even though USC is way higher in the BCS.

If there is a 3 way tie and its still tied based on head to head, a tiebreaker from within the conference needs to be made.

Stregnth of schedule INSIDE the conference, point differential INSIDE the conference, or even a vote of coaches INSIDE the conference.

Games vs TCU or Cincinnati have absolutely nothing to do with your conference standings.

Why would they count towards your conference tiebreakers?

Why should coaches from other conferences or a media poll ever have a hand in determining who goes to YOUR conference title game?
 

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I have a lot of questions about Missouri's state of mind here. They looked lackadaisical much of the last third of the season, coasting by teams they should have blown away. Then what had to be a dishearetening loss to a Kansas team that's way down this season compared to last.

The Tigers aren't going to a BCS game, a win or loss here isn't likely to affect their bowl bid, so they're basically playing simply to screw OU. Here in the "Can't Beat Texas Bowl" I'm just not sure that's enough to have them in high spirits.

Still, two touchdowns and a field goal is a lot to lay. But if I play this game, the OU angle will certainly be the one I take.
AA...This is kind of the way I felt about the game. I'm not really convinced that Missouri lost to Kansas last week because they were looking ahead to OU. The Border War is a big game between these teams. If Missouri wasn't going to win that one, I don't see them getting close in this one. OU will present more problems for Missouri on defense than Kansas did. Having said that this is simply too big of a line to bet big. I just hope OU can get up emotionally for their third top 20 team in a row.
 

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Seems like this season has gone fast. It hasn't been one of my better years, but nevertheless there is nothing more fun to me than capping, betting and watching football. Especially college football. Hopefully we can make a killing in the bowl season like we did last year. I should have my bowl thread up in a couple weeks. I plan on doing like I did last year and make a list of the running dogs, see how many of them are good plays, and then have some good discussions in the thread before we pull the trigger on a game. This is absolutely the best way to do it. Bowl games aren't easy to hit from even the best cappers. And the more information we get from everybody in the thread from their individual teams the better chance we have.

OSU coach Mike Gundy had the best idea this week that I've heard about solving our conference problems when it comes to picking the best team to represent this conference in a national championship game. And that would be to do away with the North and South Divisions of this conference which has been heavily tilted to the South for the last few years, and instead just go with the two highest rated BCS teams in the conference playing in the Big 12 CG at the end of the season. Sounds like a plan to me. This year it would have been an OU-Texas rematch that we all wanted to see, instead of OU having to go to Kansas City to play no better than the fifth best team in the conference and leaving Texas out in the cold. It's not right. And it makes no sense if you really want your best and highest rated team representing your conference in a BCS bowl. Really, I think the way the Pac-10 does it is the best. They play every team in 9 conference games. Even though we can't play all of the teams every year, going to a 9 game conference schedule with 3 non-conference games seems like the best way to go. Personally I think it should be that way for all of the conferences. It may not take all of the BCS controversy out of the equation. But it would take most of it out.

Like I've said here many times before, if you want to seriously become a BCS contender you have to toughen your non-conference schedule. And many teams to this day refuse to do it. I know at OU since day one Bob Stoops and AD Castiglione have made it a point to schedule at least one marquee game every year, and one good mid-major team. And in some years like this year OU has scheduled two BCS teams. And even though Washington wasn't any good this year, 7 to 10 years ago when OU scheduled them it was a different story. If your sick of seeing OU in BCS championship games instead of other teams, look no further than their schedule. And if you think this Texas BCS controversy hasn't happened before, OU's opponent FSU in the 2000 BCS championship game got beat in a head to head by Miami that year, yet FSU went to the title game with the same record based on their better SOS. And this is also why Auburn didn't beat out OU for the BCS title game in 2004. What is shocking to me is the teams that say they still don't care about their OOC schedule. And it surprised me even more when Mack Brown said that the Horns no longer desire to have one marquee non-conference opponent on their schedule. To me, if you don't do it, then don't complain when this comes up again, and you've got an identical record to a conference or a non-conference team that keeps you behind in the BCS computers. Like I said I was really surprised to hear this come out of Texas. By the way the Horns four opponenets next season are Wyoming, Central Florida, UTEP and La Monroe....Good luck. Teams better start learning to play the BCS game because I've got news for you, the BCS isn't going away. Not in 5 years. And probably not in 10 years. ESPN just signed a 5 year contract with the BCS. There is way the BCS is going away. There's too much money tied into this system and the bowls. And that money and those contracts won't end for a long time. The the majority of the university presidents and AD's are also against a playoff. And if they don't want it, it's never going to happen. Because they ARE the NCAA..And if you think that coming up with a feasible playoff system and the controversy surrounding this years BCS is going to help get things get changed all I've got to say is nuh-uh. I've got news for you, the BCS loves this controversy. It's giving them a ton of publicity. They love it. Teams better start learning to play the BCS game if they ever have a desire to play in one.


BCS should never come into effect for deciding who wins your conference.

Just like how Oregon St would have won the tiebreaker by beating USC head to head even though USC is way higher in the BCS.

If there is a 3 way tie and its still tied based on head to head, a tiebreaker from within the conference needs to be made.

Stregnth of schedule INSIDE the conference, point differential INSIDE the conference, or even a vote of coaches INSIDE the conference.

Games vs TCU or Cincinnati have absolutely nothing to do with your conference standings.

Why would they count towards your conference tiebreakers?

Why should coaches from other conferences or a media poll ever have a hand in determining who goes to YOUR conference title game?
Cluch...If I'm not mistaking this is the way the SEC does it. And in my opinion it's the wrong way to determin a conference champion and they are behind the curve. A conference main goal should be to pick the highest possible team in the BCS to represent your conference in a BCS bowl. And the way the Big 12 does it now is the RIGHT way of doing it to make sure they get the highest rated team at the end of the year. And your OOC games SHOULD count. If they didn't, then what is the use of booking any good teams in your OOC schedule. Do you really want to see college football teams go through a pre-conference season not having any marquee games? I don't. It takes the excitement out of football. And it makes your OOC games mean something. The one thing that I think all of the conferences are doing wrong is dividing them up in divisions. Half of the time this kills the possibilty of the best team coming out of a conference.
 

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Cluch...If I'm not mistaking this is the way the SEC does it. And in my opinion it's the wrong way to determin a conference champion and they are behind the curve. A conference main goal should be to pick the highest possible team in the BCS to represent your conference in a BCS bowl. And the way the Big 12 does it now is the RIGHT way of doing it to make sure they get the highest rated team at the end of the year. And your OOC games SHOULD count. If they didn't, then what is the use of booking any good teams in your OOC schedule. Do you really want to see college football teams go through a pre-conference season not having any marquee games? I don't. It takes the excitement out of football. And it makes your OOC games mean something. The one thing that I think all of the conferences are doing wrong is dividing them up in divisions. Half of the time this kills the possibilty of the best team coming out of a conference.


So if USC and Oregon St were tied (if Oregon St had won LW) and Oregon St beat them head to head, you think USC should go to the Rose bowl?
 

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Cincinnati (-7) over Hawaii**
What this game comes down to for me is this is a team who won their conference and is going to a BCS game, and only giving 7 points to a non-BCS team with barely a winning record. A BCS caliber team playing a mid-level WAC team. This Hawaii team isn't as good as previous Hawaii teams. Good lord, they were held to just 24 points by an absolutely horrible Wash. St. team last week. And 3 of those points came via a WSU fumble on their own 3 yard line. And if Hawaii thought they were playing a good defense in WSU (ha!) just wait until they go up against the Bearcats, who have been playing smothering defense all year, except against OU (for obvious reasons). Cincy should be able to do what they want here. Especially passing the ball. The Bearcats aren't a particually good running team. But their playing in a conference that plays good defense against the run. Hawaii gives up 164 ypg against the run in a pass happy league. So I think Cincy will be able to move the ball either way in this game. On the mainland this is a 20+ spread. Hawaii's other two games against BCS teams they were 28 point dogs to Florida (56-10) and 14 point dogs to Oregon State (45-7). Granted Hawaii has improved some since those games. But Cincy has been on the improve all season. The motivation factor is the only thing that comes into play here. But Brian Kelly is known as the great motivator. And he don't like losing these kinds of games to non-BCS teams. He's wanting a goal of 11 wins in a season for the first time for this Bearcat team. And to be rated in the top 10 at the end of the year. Which has been their goal all along. And in order to do that their going to have to win this game and their bowl game. I think they get it done here.
 

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