GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week for 10-4

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Big 12 conference play begins this week. The conference could be a little tougher to cap this year than in past seasons because most of the teams in the conference are more experienced with good QB's. And nothing can kill your spread play faster than a good QB. There are a few exceptions..Young teams in the league include Texas A&M (offense & defense, QB), Texas (defense, some new skill players on offense), KSU (JUCO's on defense, RB), ISU (offensive skill players, DB's, QB), Nebraska (defensive back 7 and WR's)...One thing that I have found out over the years that it's not a very profitable venture to give points on the road in this conference. Even to these inexpereinced teams.. Even when the games look like a slam dunk. I'll do it now and then in special cases. But it's not the best way to bet the Big 12..Especially this year with all of the good offenses in this conference. This week there are no running dogs in the Big 12. Which makes my job a little bit harder..It doesn't mean there aren't any running dogs in the conference. It just means that the favorites this week have the upper hand with this stat. I've just played one Big 12 game so far..And this is the OSU-A&M game. So I'm putting this one in early so you can get the best possible number on it if you wish to play it.

Season Record: (+27 Units)

** Plays 17-18
*** Plays 10-7-1
**** Plays 5-0


Texas A&M at Oklahoma State...As you've seen from the last couple of weeks Texas A&M is hurting in a big way on both sides of the ball. Especially on defense where this team is very soft up front and slow. They gave up a ton of rushing yards to Army. So there's no telling what they're going to give up to an OSU team who is averaging over 300 yards rushing a game. Starting QB McGee is hurt. And he further aggravated his seperated shoulder injury against Army and more than likely will be out for the next few weeks. So this team lost a big leader off of their offense. Now they have QB Jerrod Johnson, who I heard is also a little banged up, hitting the road for the first time and trying to call audibles in a very loud and expanded Boone Pickens stadium. And this is the second week in a row that OSU will be looking for some major payback on a team who has beat them 4 years straight. The Polls have finally caught up to this very underrated Pokes team, and they'll now be bringing a new #21 ranking and number 1 offense to the game. So they should be super fired up here for another beatdown. OSU played a very game and well coached Troy team last week with a lot of heart and no quit in them..And OSU still covered easily in the end..I'm betting this Aggie team won't have that kind of fight when they find themselves down by 2 or 3 TD's on the road. And like I've been telling you guys for the last few weeks, this OSU team when playing the weaker teams are going to give up points. But it really doesn't mean much when their giving up 21 and scoring 50. I believe we have value on this OSU team for one more game. Right now I'm making this game a small play until I find out the status of Brandon Pettigrew, who in my opinion is the best tight end in the country. And the second leading receiver on the OSU team. He's questionable right now. If he is upgraded I might be making this a stronger play. But right now I'm putting it in early while the line is at a reasonable number...I've hit on Pokes in 3 straight games and counting..My recomendation is to get on this OSU money train for one more game before they hit the Big 12 road. I got the 24.5 line earlier and bought the half point..But i would still play it at 25..Taking OSU (-24) over Texas A&M **
 

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A&M hasn't been the same without Red Bryant, they were bad when he was injured last year.
 

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A&M hasn't been the same since Franny took over the program . . . .
 

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You're on an incredible run, GoSooners!
I find your thread a must read every week.

Would you still go with laying 25 and half points?
BOOKMAKER.COM has the following lines..

<TABLE class="matchupBox fontsize12" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>4:00 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>387</TD><TD class=teamCell>TEXAS A&M</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_0_25.5_-110_CFB name=game>+25½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_4_0_1500_CFB name=game>+1500</LABEL></TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>388</TD><TD class=teamCell>OKLAHOMA ST</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_1_-25.5_-110_CFB name=game>-25½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_5_0_-2500_CFB name=game>-2500</LABEL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>And I'm a little hesitant to pull the trigger. That is a lot of points to cover..:icon_conf
 

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GS, nice job last week. I don't want you to think I am a UTEP homer or anything but I think UTEP again fits into your running dog theory, check it out.
 

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You're on an incredible run, GoSooners!
I find your thread a must read every week.

Would you still go with laying 25 and half points?
BOOKMAKER.COM has the following lines..

<TABLE class="matchupBox fontsize12" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>4:00 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>387</TD><TD class=teamCell>TEXAS A&M</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_0_25.5_-110_CFB name=game>+25½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_4_0_1500_CFB name=game>+1500</LABEL></TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>388</TD><TD class=teamCell>OKLAHOMA ST</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_1_-25.5_-110_CFB name=game>-25½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL class=""><INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=785914_2_5_0_-2500_CFB name=game>-2500</LABEL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>And I'm a little hesitant to pull the trigger. That is a lot of points to cover..:icon_conf
I would only play it at this number for a small play..I'm afraid this game is going to get a little out of hand on the line..And I don't want to give people the wrong idea and think that any old number is going to cover it..It gets to the point when you get around 4 TD's that virtually anything can happen...And OSU still has to think about Missouri being on board the next week. Whether Pettigrew plays or not is also a concern..But this OSU game is going to be televised this week. And the Pokes will be looking to put their best foot forward, and show the pollsters and the country that they are the real deal and worthy of their rating. At this point you can use your own discretion with the line..If it was me, I would still play it at this number..But only small.
 

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GS, nice job last week. I don't want you to think I am a UTEP homer or anything but I think UTEP again fits into your running dog theory, check it out.
I'll take a look at it..I noticed the line has gone down a half point.
 

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here it is GS, the weeks you've been waiting for. Conference time to fade A&M. Warned people last week not to take A&M, but they tried to convince me otherwise, lol. The one and only time i have bet on them was on NM and was the biggest play of the year for me so far. Never know how A&M will play, I stay away from betting for or against them, however i don't believe they have a chance at winning. GL GS.
 

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here it is GS, the weeks you've been waiting for. Conference time to fade A&M. Warned people last week not to take A&M, but they tried to convince me otherwise, lol. The one and only time i have bet on them was on NM and was the biggest play of the year for me so far. Never know how A&M will play, I stay away from betting for or against them, however i don't believe they have a chance at winning. GL GS.
linebets...My feeling about Texas A&M is the same as Arkansas..Everybody keeps looking for them to jump up and give somebody a good game. And it's just not happening. They simply don't have the personnel to compete right now. Plus their dealing with a new coach and a new offensive system. And these option offense type of players simply don't fit the passing offense system they play in. I honestly think that Baylor has a real shot at overtaking them in the Big 12 South. I never thought I would say that. Especially this season. But Baylor has most of their team back from last season. A good coach. And a talented QB that is tailor made for the system he plays in. Plus Baylor gets A&M at home this season. So I would say their chances of winning are good. I'm actually thinking about taking Baylor and the points against OU this week. Especially since OU has Texas on board next week.
 

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Why is Texas Tech only favored by a TD over KSU?

This is the team that gave up over 500 yards and 37 points to Louisiana-Lafayette. KSU has had trouble tackling in "space" as Ron Prince likes to call it. Last time I checked, Tech did utilize the entire width and breadth of the field offensively.

I clearly must be missing something here. I think the Tech play is just free money.

For the record, Missouri is gonna "hang half-a-hundred" on the Corn. That Husker defense made Tyrod Tayler look like a competent QB. Imagine what Chase Daniel's video game offense does.

OSU names the score on the Aggies this weekend.

If you don't know, I am a KU guy. Here is the breakdown of every KU game for the Big 12. Can Reesing get pass protection vs. the other team's front 3/4? If yes, how does the opponent defend the pass and tackle in the open field? If they cannot KU wins easily. If you saw the South Florida game, you will have seen about 6 KU games in the conference. KU is gonna have to outscore everyone to win. I don't like the (-14) number for KU @ ISU. However, the last two years have been 41-10 and 45-7.

I see something like 33-20. Just right on the number.

Again, just some thoughts of a guy who watches alot of Big 12 football.
 

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gosooners,

with you on Oklahoma St...looking forward to talking with you more tomorrow...GL bud...
 

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Why is Texas Tech only favored by a TD over KSU?

This is the team that gave up over 500 yards and 37 points to Louisiana-Lafayette. KSU has had trouble tackling in "space" as Ron Prince likes to call it. Last time I checked, Tech did utilize the entire width and breadth of the field offensively.

I clearly must be missing something here. I think the Tech play is just free money.

For the record, Missouri is gonna "hang half-a-hundred" on the Corn. That Husker defense made Tyrod Tayler look like a competent QB. Imagine what Chase Daniel's video game offense does.

OSU names the score on the Aggies this weekend.

If you don't know, I am a KU guy. Here is the breakdown of every KU game for the Big 12. Can Reesing get pass protection vs. the other team's front 3/4? If yes, how does the opponent defend the pass and tackle in the open field? If they cannot KU wins easily. If you saw the South Florida game, you will have seen about 6 KU games in the conference. KU is gonna have to outscore everyone to win. I don't like the (-14) number for KU @ ISU. However, the last two years have been 41-10 and 45-7.

I see something like 33-20. Just right on the number.

Again, just some thoughts of a guy who watches alot of Big 12 football.


becase historically, TTech plays poorly against good/decent teams (read: not Baylor) on the road. TTech continues to schedule lame teams during non-conference and the one OK team they did play (Nevada) outyarded them. If not for Nevada's continued mistakes, it would have been a very close game.

Manhattan isnt an easy place to travel to or play at and you can bet they will be fired up for this game against a top 10 team.
 

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With the exception of the Sisters Of The Poor teams & Baylor, in Mike Leach's 9 years at Texas Tech, he has only covered the spread as a favorite one time on the Big 12 road..And that was way back in 2001 when they beat a 4-7 OSU team 49-30 in Stillwater as 6 point favorites. And like I've told you guys here before, it is the style in which they play that makes them a bad bet as favorites on the road..Texas Tech has traditionally had very little run game, so they are a terrible clock management team. They basically have to keep playing offense to beat you. One thing you'll never see when TT goes on the road is a second unit QB coming in to do cleanup duties for Harrell. So you can take this info anyway you like. Will TT break through and cover for the first time in 7 years on the road? Do you want to take that chance with your hard earned money? Just remember what I said at the top of the thread about taking road favorites in the Big 12. It's not good for your health, or your pockebook.
 

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Thanks GS for your insight once again, hit the Pokes for a big play last week. I think this line gets batty personally, maybe a TT play might be in order. I'm telling you I'm not sure what to make of this Mizzou line. I think Nebraska can hang with Mizzou if they can get the run game going and the secondary quits peeking into the backfield again (though I don't think it'll be a problem against Mizzou). I can totally see a backdoor TD late to cover for NU. Something like a 40-30 game.
 

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Thanks GS for your insight once again, hit the Pokes for a big play last week. I think this line gets batty personally, maybe a TT play might be in order. I'm telling you I'm not sure what to make of this Mizzou line. I think Nebraska can hang with Mizzou if they can get the run game going and the secondary quits peeking into the backfield again (though I don't think it'll be a problem against Mizzou). I can totally see a backdoor TD late to cover for NU. Something like a 40-30 game.
As far as Nebraska covering against Mizzou, I'm still looking at this game and watching the odds board...But do I need to remind people that last week in conference play not many gave a chance to Oregon St., Maryland, Ole Miss, Syracuse and Miss. State to win or cover. Conference play is another season into itself from non conference play.. Just like the bowl games are another season from the regular season. You have to cap each differently. These are all teams that see each other every year..The element of fear of the unknown is no longer there like they were in the OOC games. I've seen that many on this board think that Mizzou is going to give Nebraska another beatdown of epic proportions like they did last season. So if you think that these are the two exact teams as last season without any mitigating circusmstances, go ahead and bet Mizzou. But my bet is this will be a radically different game than what we had last season between these two teams. And Nebraska will have a much different gameplan than what they had last week against Virginia Tech or last season against Mizzou...
 

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