GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 10-25

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* 4-4
** 28-22
*** 14-13-1
**** 6-1

Needless to say I was dead wrong about Mizzou last week. I guess I should have gotten the hint from last season when OU was able to handle this team realtively easy in both of their games. But with a year's experience under their belts of being a top 10 team in the polls and a Big 12 Title contender, and with the amount of starters they had returning, my thoughts were that Mizzou would be a better team this season. But defense is still Mizzou's main weakness. And it showed last week against the nations hottest QB.

Without a doubt Texas is the real deal.. And they are going to be a tough team for anybody in the country to deal with if they should make it to the title game. Mainly because they have the hottest QB in the country who is hitting 81% of his passes. And their playing pretty sound defense..Sure they've given up 35 and 31 points in their last two games..But they've faced two top 10 offenses with two Heisman quality QB's the last 2 weeks..I think the question that won't be answered until the bowl games are over will be, are the Big 12 teams giving up so many points because they all have weak defenses? And do the SEC defenses look so good because they have some very average offenses in their league? All I can say is so far I haven't seen any team who is head and shoulders above anybody else. Much like last season when we had a two loss team win the BCS Championship. So by the process of elimination, literally any of the top ten teams could make it in to the BCS title game. Personally as a Big 12 fan, I would like to see a rematch of Texas and OU in the title game. I doubt that it will happen because both of these teams have a tough road ahead of them. But it would be an interesting rematch. After the Red River Shootout, Stoops and his players went in the next day and looked at the film of the game. And the general conclusion was the Sooners, with maybe the exception of the kickoff return TD by Texas, was pretty sound in all phases of the game...They just lost..Time to move on. But you can bet that this game will have some different coaching strategies if these two teams meet again. Their both pretty even on both sides of the ball.


OSU at Texas...My numbers have Texas favored by 15. Which is a little closer to the actual line than what I feel comfortable with in giving up points here. I like the totals play much more. The biggest difference between OSU and the last two teams that Texas has faced vs OU & Mizzou, is OSU has a much better run blocking offensive line. So I look for the Pokes to have a bit more success rushing the ball and owning a little more ball possession time in this game. And OSU also has a better defense (359 ypg) than Mizzou's (424). As many people found out in the Mizzou-OSU game, the score didn't get anywhere near the ridiculous 80 total that was set for that game. Mizzou held OSU to 28 points in Columbia. So how many more points do you think the Texas defense is going to give up to OSU? Colt McCoy is hitting an unbelievable 81% of his passes. But how do you keep this up? I got news for you, he can't. He's way overdue for a mediocre game by his standards, where he hits maybe 65-70% of his passes. When you can score the first 35 points in the game like Texas did last week, you can pretty much expect an over total against a Mizzou team who will score in bunches in junk time when the game is over... But who really thinks that Texas is going to be up 35-3 at halftime against a ball possession team like OSU with a good defense? I know I don't..Texas has been known to bring out the best in OSU. And I expect this to be a hard fought game. Hear me now and believe me later, OSU ALWAYS gets up for this Texas team. And these two have produced some of the best games in the Big 12 over the years...Either way I just hate to play against the only two teams in the country who are both 7-0 ATS..Taking the (UNDER 71) **
 

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I'd much rather see a UT/OU rematch than a USC/OSU rematch which is another possibility.

But I didn't like the OSU/Michigan rematch ESPN et. al. tried to force on us in 2006, and should UT be undefeated I think someone else should have a shot this year too (with a loss). That's even though I think if both run the table it would be a far more legitimate rematch than 2006 where both teams were in a weak/down conference only to be exposed when the rematch was scuttled and where there was no conference title game.
 

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I'd much rather see a UT/OU rematch than a USC/OSU rematch which is another possibility.

But I didn't like the OSU/Michigan rematch ESPN et. al. tried to force on us in 2006, and should UT be undefeated I think someone else should have a shot this year too (with a loss). That's even though I think if both run the table it would be a far more legitimate rematch than 2006 where both teams were in a weak/down conference only to be exposed when the rematch was scuttled and where there was no conference title game.
Although I would love to see an OU-Tex rematch, I doubt that most of the rest of the country would..For one thing, people frown on a team playing in a National Title game who didn't even play in their own conference title game. But to me this is no different than say somebody from the Big 10 who doesn't even have a conference championship game and making it to the BCS title game. At any rate many things have to happen before we could have a OU-Tex rematch..Penn State and Bama needs to lose..And probably Florida too..If a 1 loss Florida beats an undefeated Bama team in the SEC title game, they'll go before OU will. Plus both OU and Texas have tough games ahead against OSU and Texas Tech. So they'll both have to go 4-0 against these teams to have a chance. There's still alot of football to be played yet. And there's still alot of pretenders out there..Just remember, in November the cream always rises to the top.
 

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Sooners,
I have Michigan & Louisville as rushing dogs this week. Let me know if you have the same. Funny thing is... both teams seem like they are in the same situation. Both getting 4-5 pts at home. And both opponents are ranked. I'm already on Louisville, and can't seem to grow enuff balls to jump on Michigan. W/that said, Michigan prolly covers, hahaha.

As always... aloha.
 

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Under is the play i think as well :aktion033
 

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I like that UNDER play. I may add it to my card this week . . .
beer.gif
 

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Sooners,
I have Michigan & Louisville as rushing dogs this week. Let me know if you have the same. Funny thing is... both teams seem like they are in the same situation. Both getting 4-5 pts at home. And both opponents are ranked. I'm already on Louisville, and can't seem to grow enuff balls to jump on Michigan. W/that said, Michigan prolly covers, hahaha.

As always... aloha.
fade...I have both Michigan and Louisville as running dogs this week...I'm going to start looking at both of these games tonight...Good luck
 

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Go Sooners,

Don't know if you saw it, but i posted Nebraska as my chalk play of the day for Saturday. I just don't think Baylor has the personnel on D to slow down Nebraska's offense much at all. On the flip side of the ball, I feel that Baylor has the worst OL in the Big 12 and the Nebraska DL is pretty solid (the back seven sure aren't though!), so I'm kind of liking the matchup on that side of the ball too. Looking for a 42-20 type score if not worse. Baylor is one of those teams that can look good when they play teams on their level, but when they step up in competition, it is the same old story. Blowout city!
 

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I like Michigan as well. I had a big play on Ohio State last week because i felt MSU was very overrated. Their personnel lends them to being an average big ten team at best. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them go down hard again, even though Michigan obviously isn't very good.
 

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gosooners,

I went back and forth trying to justify a OSU play, but could only start look at them at 14 or more...the more I thought about it though, like you say I'm not sure a side is the right play in this game...I'll root for your total and am curious to see the rest of your card...just trying not to talk you into any bad plays this week as you are the man!
 

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Could somebody explain to me why Kansas is favorite in this game. Kansas still hasn't stopped a team with a pulse on offense. The only way KU is gonna win this game is for their offense to be nearly flawless in its execution. And while Reesing is talented, he doesn't have alot of help from the running game or a breakaway receiver. We know what we get from Tech. They are who they are and to beat them, the other team has to get over the bar Tech sets.

I think this game flys over any O/U number that is set. I see both teams in the 40s.

Tech 48 Jayhawks 45
 

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Here's to a good week for you GS.


Couple games I'm pondering over...


Alabama/Tennessee U41.5 looks tempting just because of how bad both offenses can be at times. Bama's offense at home last week agaisnt an average Ole Miss defense 2nd half looked pretty lazy. Tennessee should be playing all out for Fulmer if they give a rip about him keeping his job. The 3rd Saturday in October is always a dogfight it seems like and never played in the 20's.

Also have a gut feeling Kansas pulls the upset vs Tech. The line just suggests to go with KU at home. Should be a lot of points as usual, but I dunno if I'm going to touch that total.

Thoughts on these two? Thanks GS.
 

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Sooner-
Good Luck this weekend! I sht the bed the last two weekend so Im due-
Take Care-
 

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gosooners,

I went back and forth trying to justify a OSU play, but could only start look at them at 14 or more...the more I thought about it though, like you say I'm not sure a side is the right play in this game...I'll root for your total and am curious to see the rest of your card...just trying not to talk you into any bad plays this week as you are the man!
Pags..I know you don't like totals...But I think this is the best way to go with this game..I'm actually liking alot of totals this week..Particually in the Big 12..I agree with you that OSU isn't the play unless the line gets to 14 or more. And I don't think it will. I'll give you a call later tonight..There's a couple possible big play games I want to talk to you about.
 

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Go Sooners,

Don't know if you saw it, but i posted Nebraska as my chalk play of the day for Saturday. I just don't think Baylor has the personnel on D to slow down Nebraska's offense much at all. On the flip side of the ball, I feel that Baylor has the worst OL in the Big 12 and the Nebraska DL is pretty solid (the back seven sure aren't though!), so I'm kind of liking the matchup on that side of the ball too. Looking for a 42-20 type score if not worse. Baylor is one of those teams that can look good when they play teams on their level, but when they step up in competition, it is the same old story. Blowout city!
I agree that Nebraska is probably the side..Baylor really don't have anybody but Griffin, who accounts for about 70% of their offense. What scares me is Nebraska's defense. Their facing a much better and more sound offensive team with Baylor than what they did with Iowa State last week..But I do agree that Baylor won't be able to stop the Huskers...I watched all of the ISU-Nebraska game last week..And Ganz is really starting to find his rhythm with his receivers. I also like the fact that Nebraska is going to more of a true spread offense with 4 and even 5 receiver sets. With one back in the backfield.. I think it's giving them more balance running and passing..There's no doubt that Nebraska is on the improve...And Ganz is getting much more accurate with his throwing. I'm also thinking this might be a good game to play the over. I see both teams having success on offense. So 59 is a doable number.
 

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A little more about Michigan. They have started fast more often than not this year, then grind to a halt on offense. A first qtr/half play may be the way to go here.
 

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The players are finally buying into what Pelini is selling, they've been having great practices everyday and they are finally playing with some type of identity. Shawn Watson has figured out the tools he has on offense and they've cut out a lot of the b/s (motion, etc) and just playing ball, it's good to see Nebraska play a couple of decent games after getting rolled by Mizzu. I think Nebraska will be ready to play on Saturday at home...however, mobile qb's always give us problems so that is the one caution flag I would raise.

:toast:
 

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Here's to a good week for you GS.


Couple games I'm pondering over...


Alabama/Tennessee U41.5 looks tempting just because of how bad both offenses can be at times. Bama's offense at home last week agaisnt an average Ole Miss defense 2nd half looked pretty lazy. Tennessee should be playing all out for Fulmer if they give a rip about him keeping his job. The 3rd Saturday in October is always a dogfight it seems like and never played in the 20's.

Also have a gut feeling Kansas pulls the upset vs Tech. The line just suggests to go with KU at home. Should be a lot of points as usual, but I dunno if I'm going to touch that total.

Thoughts on these two? Thanks GS.
Tennessee could potentially be the running dogs in this game...They have the third best run defense in the SEC behind UGA and BAMA. Bama is the best rushing team in the SEC..But playing on the road against this Tennessee defense, along with Cody being out for Bama leads me to believe we could have some very even rushing numbers..Which makes this 7 points seem like alot to me..I think it probably goes under the total if Tennessee keeps it within the spread..I actually like Tennessee +7 a little more than I do the total. As for Kansas-Texas Tech, my numbers have Texas Tech over Kansas by 4.60 points. But we know that Tech has traditionally been a bad road team against some of the better competetion. But if I was on Tech I would be very worried about their pass defense, which ranks #104 in the country. And Reesing passed for 350 yards on a better OU defense last week..What's he going to do at home? If it hadn't been for Reesing throwing for a couple interceptions on the OU goal line, that game last week could have been very close..I also like the fact that Kansas is running the ball better..RB Sharp ran for over 100 yards on 12 carries against OU. So if he can have some success against Tech then that will be less snaps that Harrell and company get against the Kansas defense. This is the key to the game.. Kansas moving the ball, controlling time of possession and playing keep away from Tech. I have a slight lean to Kansas in this game.
 

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Good stuff man. Didn't know about Tech's atrocious pass D, Reesing should have a field day with them. Look forward to seeing all of your plays this week.
 

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A little more about Michigan. They have started fast more often than not this year, then grind to a halt on offense. A first qtr/half play may be the way to go here.
My problem is more with Michigan State..They've really struggled on offense against the better defenses in the Big 10..And now their having to go on the road and give points. And MSU strengths of running the ball play right into Michigans strength of stopping the run. After watching several Michigan games this year, I've noticed what stops their offense more than anything is their own miscues..Penalties and turnovers..If they can keep these to a minumum they should be able to win the game outright or cover the 4 point spread. If they don't, then it's going to be Toldeo all over again. My numbers have MSU favored by 1.30 points. So despite the line going down from 5.5 to 4, we are still getting decent value here with Michigan..Especially since they are the home "running dogs".
 

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