GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 10-18

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** Plays 26-18
*** Plays 12-12-1
**** Plays 6-1


Last week was a crazy week in the Big 12..All I can say is be prepared for more surpises in the future. OSU's win was not only the biggest in the Big 12 this season, in my opinion it was the biggest in the nation so far. Even bigger than the Oregon St. win over USC, because this was a win over the number 2 team as 14 point dogs on the Tigers home field in primetime. I really didn't see a letdown coming. But Mizzou looked very unprepared in that game. And made some uncharacteristic mistakes on offense they don't normally make.. It looked like night and day to their Nebraska game the week before. Texas on the other hand looked very sharp in handing the number 1 team OU a defeat. But by my prediction earlier in the week, you know this really didn't surprise me. But it did disappoint me. Texas threw some new offensive schemes at the OU defense that they hadn't seen this year. And they weren't able to adjust. Which is the problem that I've had with these co-defensive coordinators for the last few years..The last 5 games that OU has lost to ranked teams, they've had over 40 points scored on them each time. Which is unacceptable. Something needs to be done. And changes have to be made..Whether it be totally trashing their defensive schemes or a change in defensive coordinators..When Mack Brown's teams have slipped into mediocrity he has at least gone out and hired the best defensive coordinators. And it has paid off for them each time. Stoops may have to do the same thing if he wants to take the next step and start beating the college powers in this country. Something that OU hasn't done in over 4 years.

It was a rough week all the way around last week. The running dogs in my system went 11-8. Which is well below what they've been doing the last few weeks..The overall record for the running dogs this year is 73-26 YTD. Which is a little over 73%. Historically the running dogs have hit at a 77% average. But the challenge each week is finding the right running dogs..Sometimes it works. Sometimes it don't. Hopefully we'll be able to recoup some units this week..Most of my plays are going to be small. I'm also going to start putting in some 1 unit plays for the first time this week. I've been doing pretty well with these plays. So I'm going to start listing them here...Good luck


Baylor at OSU...As you all know this is a typical sandwich/letdown/lookahead spot for OSU this week between Mizzou and Texas. And even though Baylor is the Running Dogs (but very close numbers), I'm not going to make this a big play because things can go downhill in a hurry in Stillwater with this OSU offense. But Baylor QB Griffin has been hot. (9 TD's 0 int's), and he accounts for over 60% of their offense..OU did a pretty decent job at stopping him. But I have my doubts that OSU will have the same success against him..OSU did a great job on defense the other night against Mizzou..But don't forget that was one game..Before that the Pokes had given up 24, 28 and 37 points on defense at home..And i believe this Baylor team is even better than these previous three teams..Baylor still has bowl aspirations. And I believe they're going to give 100% every game to get there...They are also a ball control type of offense. So the Pokes may not get as many touches on offense as they would like..In any other circumstances I believe the linesmakers would have set this line at around 24..But they know as well as us that this is a tough spot for OSU. That's why we are seeing it at 17. This is a Big 12 South Conference game..Nothing comes this easy...OSU needs to watch out here...Taking Baylor (+17) over OSU **


Missouri at Texas...I might not have the same opinion as many of the Horns fans out there right now, but I don't think any team in this conference is going to get out with less than 1 or 2 losses. It could very well cost this conference a seat in the BCS National Championship game..But the defenses in this conference are going to have to step up before I can say any team deserves to be there..Texas has a few of the same problems that OU does..They rank over #100 in pass defense..And they don't have that one go to running back that is needed for a balanced offensive attack..Now I know they threw some new offensive schemes at the soft middle of OU's defense last week..But I seriously doubt they can get away with it twice. I also have my doubts that Texas can play with the same kind of intensity two weeks in a row..This is very hard for any team to do..Especially a team like Texas who is young on defense. They'll be playing a veteran Mizzou offense that is in my opinion more dangerous than OU's because they not only have a mobile QB and great receivers, but they also have a couple good RB's that can burn you. OSU had some great schemes in shooting the gaps on defense last week..But I look for Mizzou to make adjustments this week and throw some different looks at the Texas defense, and attack their weak secondary. This is a showcase game between the two top Heisman candidates..I expect a great performance by both QB's. And I expect a relatively high scoring game..But in my opinion Mizzou can match the Horns score for score..They are that good on offense. And the Tigers are especially dangerous as dogs. Remember when they got that last minute cover last year against OU as 10 points dogs in Norman? Win or lose they can easily do it again here. My numbers have Mizzou as a 5.5 point dog...They are also the running dogs in this game. And the circumstances with the Tigers losing and Texas winning last week make this an even stronger play. I look for this primetime game to come right down to the wire. I think everybody's going to find out in this game how much parity we have in this league..Taking Missouri (+6) over Texas **


Kansas at OU...The big question with OU this week is how are they going to replace their defensive leader LB Ryan Reynolds? The middle linebacker was the heart of the defense. And after he got hurt and left the game, Texas was able to take control with their run game in the 4th quarter. What Stoops is going to do I don't know..He's being very tight lipped about it. Stoops really doesn't have an experienced player to replace this very important position. And this is what bothers me here..I've heard a little of everything this week. That OU maybe going to a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, or move our best safety up in the position. My feeling is OU's defense won't have as much pressure put on them as last week. I really think OU's offense comes out and starts putting the hammer down right out of the gate on Kansas like they have everybody else in the first quarter. Plus Stoops teams have historically done very well ATS after a big loss. My feeling they will here too..But with Reesing and Kansas, the backdoor will always be open. I like OU slightly here..But I like the OVER even more..Taking (OVER 60.5) ** And OU (-19.5) over Kansas *
 

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gl gosooners! like to know what you think about the A&M v Tech game? Just trying to get convinced not to take A&M this weekend.
 

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QUESTION FOR GoSooners

you mentioned that your running dogs overall record is 73-26.

could you start listing all of the running dogs that don't make * status?
 
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I like Baylor. Bad, bad spot for the Pokes this week I believe off the huge win over Mizzou and the big game next weekend against Texas. Baylor can score and even though the Oklahoma State defense played well last weekend I am not convinced their defense is that good.
 

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Texas is 10-0 the week following OU under Mack Brown's regime. I respect your opinion, but I truly think Mizzou is going to run into a buzzsaw this weekend. Texas' linebackers and front 3 are so good that they'll be harassing Daniel all night (I hope). Good luck on every pick but that one. BTW, what are your thoughts on tomorrow night's BYU @ TCU game?
 

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gl gosooners! like to know what you think about the A&M v Tech game? Just trying to get convinced not to take A&M this weekend.
linebets...I'm kind of leaning towards Texas A&M...After watching Texas Tech a few times this year, I'm convinced that they are trying to go to more of a ball control offense this season to take the pressure off of their defense..It was very evident in the Nebraska game where TT rushed 23 times for over a 5ypc average...I like the fact that they are getting their RB's more involved in the game to chew up some clock..It may make for a few closer games..But it will save the wear and tear on their defense. I look for them to continue to do it against the Aggies..What it causes is lower scoring games. And probably a few less covers this year. Now I know that Tech scored 58 on Kansas State. But they are statistically the worst defense in the big 12..Texas A&M's defense is better than KSU, and they rank almost dead even with Nebraska..So I think there is a good chance we don't see as high a scoring game as people expect. And Texas A&M has a decent chance to cover..Plus these two teams don't like each other..So it should be a hard fought game..I'm thinking a score something like 35-17...My numbers have tech favored by 20.5. Which is a little less than the spread. So it makes me lean to Texas A&M +21. I'm just waiting to see if the line might go a little higher...Good luck
 

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Glad to see your thread up. Thanks for all your effort.

Any thoughts on BYU-TCU?
 

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you mentioned that your running dogs overall record is 73-26.

could you start listing all of the running dogs that don't make * status?
Marshall...My partner who works with me with the running dogs prefers not to have them listed...And I agreed to go along with his wishes.
 

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Glad to seee you're thread up. Thanks for all your effort.

Any thoughts on BYU-TCU?
Man, this is a tough game...TCU is the running dogs with the better defense playing at home. But this line is quickly becoming a pickem game. So this eliminates the running dog theory..After watching TCU against OU, what bothers me is in their efforts to defense the run and take it away, they give up the long pass play. Now I know BYU isn't as good as oU on offense..But I still think they are capable of expoiting the TCU defense at times during the game..But what bothers me more about TCU is their lack of playmakers on offense..They scored 10 points on OU. But 7 of those points came from special teams..Otherwise their offense was able to do nothing against the Sooners..And they didn't look very good last week against CSU..BYU also had trouble scoring last week against New Mexico. But keep in mind that the weather conditions weren't ideal, and New Mexico has the best secondary in the MWC.. Much better than TCU's. I think TCU can win this game..But they have to be able to establish the running game..And they'll probably need a couple key turnovers on defense. I'm not saying it can't happen..But BYU is +11 in turnover margin this year..So they don't give opposing defenses very many gifts..I think this is a very tough game to cap..That's why the line is so close..Personally I think the best play for this game is the UNDER 45..Both of these teams have very good defenses..BYU's scoring has gone down when they've been on the road..And I'm not sure about TCU QB situation..Whichever one they use isn't that good anyway. So barring any freak special team plays, I'm kind of liking the under.
 

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Texas is 10-0 the week following OU under Mack Brown's regime. I respect your opinion, but I truly think Mizzou is going to run into a buzzsaw this weekend. Texas' linebackers and front 3 are so good that they'll be harassing Daniel all night (I hope). Good luck on every pick but that one. BTW, what are your thoughts on tomorrow night's BYU @ TCU game?
jb...Weren't you the one that was telling me a few weeks ago how OU is going to kick Texas asses all over the field? Has Texas all of a sudden got this much better since they beat OU? And has Mizzou gotten that much worse since they lost one game?
 

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jb...Weren't you the one that was telling me a few weeks ago how OU is going to kick Texas asses all over the field? Has Texas all of a sudden got this much better since they beat OU? And has Mizzou gotten that much worse since they lost one game?

That indeed was me. And I was worried for a while there as I was buying into the OU hype. But after the Colorado game, I realized the chemistry was actually there, and right after that game, Muschamp was asked "what about the OU offense". His response, 3 words: "We'll be fine". I at that point had all the confidence in this young Texas defense and secondary. As for Mizzou, I do in fact believe last week's loss did open up a pandora's box for them. OSU's defense just isn't all that talented, and if they could rattle Daniel that much, on his own field, I'm anxious to see what a more talented (in my estimation) defense, away from home will do to him. I also think he might over try since he wasn't recruited by Mack and he's gone on word as saying that hurt him. Mizzouri wasn't tested AT ALL until last week, and we saw what happened. So yes, last week's games did have a lot of impact in my thinking. And yes, I am a big-time homer orangeblood reading through orange colored glasses. BOL. I enjoy your writeups.
 

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That indeed was me. And I was worried for a while there as I was buying into the OU hype. But after the Colorado game, I realized the chemistry was actually there, and right after that game, Muschamp was asked "what about the OU offense". His response, 3 words: "We'll be fine". I at that point had all the confidence in this young Texas defense and secondary. As for Mizzou, I do in fact believe last week's loss did open up a pandora's box for them. OSU's defense just isn't all that talented, and if they could rattle Daniel that much, on his own field, I'm anxious to see what a more talented (in my estimation) defense, away from home will do to him. I also think he might over try since he wasn't recruited by Mack and he's gone on word as saying that hurt him. Mizzouri wasn't tested AT ALL until last week, and we saw what happened. So yes, last week's games did have a lot of impact in my thinking. And yes, I am a big-time homer orangeblood reading through orange colored glasses. BOL. I enjoy your writeups.

Maybe you should read that book you were asking about, "The Smart Money" before posting.

:toast:
 

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Man, this is a tough game...TCU is the running dogs with the better defense playing at home. But this line is quickly becoming a pickem game. So this eliminates the running dog theory..After watching TCU against OU, what bothers me is in their efforts to defense the run and take it away, they give up the long pass play. Now I know BYU isn't as good as oU on offense..But I still think they are capable of expoiting the TCU defense at times during the game..But what bothers me more about TCU is their lack of playmakers on offense..They scored 10 points on OU. But 7 of those points came from special teams..Otherwise their offense was able to do nothing against the Sooners..And they didn't look very good last week against CSU..BYU also had trouble scoring last week against New Mexico. But keep in mind that the weather conditions weren't ideal, and New Mexico has the best secondary in the MWC.. Much better than TCU's. I think TCU can win this game..But they have to be able to establish the running game..And they'll probably need a couple key turnovers on defense. I'm not saying it can't happen..But BYU is +11 in turnover margin this year..So they don't give opposing defenses very many gifts..I think this is a very tough game to cap..That's why the line is so close..Personally I think the best play for this game is the UNDER 45..Both of these teams have very good defenses..BYU's scoring has gone down when they've been on the road..And I'm not sure about TCU QB situation..Whichever one they use isn't that good anyway. So barring any freak special team plays, I'm kind of liking the under.

Thanks for the info! Can't wait for more of your winning plays...
 

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linebets...I'm kind of leaning towards Texas A&M...After watching Texas Tech a few times this year, I'm convinced that they are trying to go to more of a ball control offense this season to take the pressure off of their defense..It was very evident in the Nebraska game where TT rushed 23 times for over a 5ypc average...I like the fact that they are getting their RB's more involved in the game to chew up some clock..It may make for a few closer games..But it will save the wear and tear on their defense. I look for them to continue to do it against the Aggies..What it causes is lower scoring games. And probably a few less covers this year. Now I know that Tech scored 58 on Kansas State. But they are statistically the worst defense in the big 12..Texas A&M's defense is better than KSU, and they rank almost dead even with Nebraska..So I think there is a good chance we don't see as high a scoring game as people expect. And Texas A&M has a decent chance to cover..Plus these two teams don't like each other..So it should be a hard fought game..I'm thinking a score something like 35-17...My numbers have tech favored by 20.5. Which is a little less than the spread. So it makes me lean to Texas A&M +21. I'm just waiting to see if the line might go a little higher...Good luck

exactly what i was looking for... Thanks GS and gl this week
 

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the public is pounding Mizz. My book now has it down to -5. I really think that Texas wins this by double digits this weekend. For everyone saying that TExas will not play with the same intensity as they did against OU, I dont see why they won't. It is a night game at DKR, Game Day is going to be in Austin, Texas now controls their own destiny, and I think that Daniel is going to be running for his life from Kindle, RAK, and Co. I don't think that Mack will let this team look ahead, and I think that Coach Boom will have his defense ready to play. Mizz simply does not have the talent that Texas does to win this game. I am just hoping that the line will get to 4. Plus Colt doesn't eat boogers.
 

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the public is pounding Mizz. My book now has it down to -5. I really think that Texas wins this by double digits this weekend. For everyone saying that TExas will not play with the same intensity as they did against OU, I dont see why they won't. It is a night game at DKR, Game Day is going to be in Austin, Texas now controls their own destiny, and I think that Daniel is going to be running for his life from Kindle, RAK, and Co. I don't think that Mack will let this team look ahead, and I think that Coach Boom will have his defense ready to play. Mizz simply does not have the talent that Texas does to win this game. I am just hoping that the line will get to 4. Plus Colt doesn't eat boogers.


Public money is not moving the texas line, I can assure you that. The vast majority of public bettors make their bets the day before or gameday, not on Tuesday or Wednesday
 

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