Season: +30 Units
** Plays 26-18
*** Plays 12-12-1
**** Plays 6-1
Last week was a crazy week in the Big 12..All I can say is be prepared for more surpises in the future. OSU's win was not only the biggest in the Big 12 this season, in my opinion it was the biggest in the nation so far. Even bigger than the Oregon St. win over USC, because this was a win over the number 2 team as 14 point dogs on the Tigers home field in primetime. I really didn't see a letdown coming. But Mizzou looked very unprepared in that game. And made some uncharacteristic mistakes on offense they don't normally make.. It looked like night and day to their Nebraska game the week before. Texas on the other hand looked very sharp in handing the number 1 team OU a defeat. But by my prediction earlier in the week, you know this really didn't surprise me. But it did disappoint me. Texas threw some new offensive schemes at the OU defense that they hadn't seen this year. And they weren't able to adjust. Which is the problem that I've had with these co-defensive coordinators for the last few years..The last 5 games that OU has lost to ranked teams, they've had over 40 points scored on them each time. Which is unacceptable. Something needs to be done. And changes have to be made..Whether it be totally trashing their defensive schemes or a change in defensive coordinators..When Mack Brown's teams have slipped into mediocrity he has at least gone out and hired the best defensive coordinators. And it has paid off for them each time. Stoops may have to do the same thing if he wants to take the next step and start beating the college powers in this country. Something that OU hasn't done in over 4 years.
It was a rough week all the way around last week. The running dogs in my system went 11-8. Which is well below what they've been doing the last few weeks..The overall record for the running dogs this year is 73-26 YTD. Which is a little over 73%. Historically the running dogs have hit at a 77% average. But the challenge each week is finding the right running dogs..Sometimes it works. Sometimes it don't. Hopefully we'll be able to recoup some units this week..Most of my plays are going to be small. I'm also going to start putting in some 1 unit plays for the first time this week. I've been doing pretty well with these plays. So I'm going to start listing them here...Good luck
Baylor at OSU...As you all know this is a typical sandwich/letdown/lookahead spot for OSU this week between Mizzou and Texas. And even though Baylor is the Running Dogs (but very close numbers), I'm not going to make this a big play because things can go downhill in a hurry in Stillwater with this OSU offense. But Baylor QB Griffin has been hot. (9 TD's 0 int's), and he accounts for over 60% of their offense..OU did a pretty decent job at stopping him. But I have my doubts that OSU will have the same success against him..OSU did a great job on defense the other night against Mizzou..But don't forget that was one game..Before that the Pokes had given up 24, 28 and 37 points on defense at home..And i believe this Baylor team is even better than these previous three teams..Baylor still has bowl aspirations. And I believe they're going to give 100% every game to get there...They are also a ball control type of offense. So the Pokes may not get as many touches on offense as they would like..In any other circumstances I believe the linesmakers would have set this line at around 24..But they know as well as us that this is a tough spot for OSU. That's why we are seeing it at 17. This is a Big 12 South Conference game..Nothing comes this easy...OSU needs to watch out here...Taking Baylor (+17) over OSU **
Missouri at Texas...I might not have the same opinion as many of the Horns fans out there right now, but I don't think any team in this conference is going to get out with less than 1 or 2 losses. It could very well cost this conference a seat in the BCS National Championship game..But the defenses in this conference are going to have to step up before I can say any team deserves to be there..Texas has a few of the same problems that OU does..They rank over #100 in pass defense..And they don't have that one go to running back that is needed for a balanced offensive attack..Now I know they threw some new offensive schemes at the soft middle of OU's defense last week..But I seriously doubt they can get away with it twice. I also have my doubts that Texas can play with the same kind of intensity two weeks in a row..This is very hard for any team to do..Especially a team like Texas who is young on defense. They'll be playing a veteran Mizzou offense that is in my opinion more dangerous than OU's because they not only have a mobile QB and great receivers, but they also have a couple good RB's that can burn you. OSU had some great schemes in shooting the gaps on defense last week..But I look for Mizzou to make adjustments this week and throw some different looks at the Texas defense, and attack their weak secondary. This is a showcase game between the two top Heisman candidates..I expect a great performance by both QB's. And I expect a relatively high scoring game..But in my opinion Mizzou can match the Horns score for score..They are that good on offense. And the Tigers are especially dangerous as dogs. Remember when they got that last minute cover last year against OU as 10 points dogs in Norman? Win or lose they can easily do it again here. My numbers have Mizzou as a 5.5 point dog...They are also the running dogs in this game. And the circumstances with the Tigers losing and Texas winning last week make this an even stronger play. I look for this primetime game to come right down to the wire. I think everybody's going to find out in this game how much parity we have in this league..Taking Missouri (+6) over Texas **
Kansas at OU...The big question with OU this week is how are they going to replace their defensive leader LB Ryan Reynolds? The middle linebacker was the heart of the defense. And after he got hurt and left the game, Texas was able to take control with their run game in the 4th quarter. What Stoops is going to do I don't know..He's being very tight lipped about it. Stoops really doesn't have an experienced player to replace this very important position. And this is what bothers me here..I've heard a little of everything this week. That OU maybe going to a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, or move our best safety up in the position. My feeling is OU's defense won't have as much pressure put on them as last week. I really think OU's offense comes out and starts putting the hammer down right out of the gate on Kansas like they have everybody else in the first quarter. Plus Stoops teams have historically done very well ATS after a big loss. My feeling they will here too..But with Reesing and Kansas, the backdoor will always be open. I like OU slightly here..But I like the OVER even more..Taking (OVER 60.5) ** And OU (-19.5) over Kansas *
** Plays 26-18
*** Plays 12-12-1
**** Plays 6-1
Last week was a crazy week in the Big 12..All I can say is be prepared for more surpises in the future. OSU's win was not only the biggest in the Big 12 this season, in my opinion it was the biggest in the nation so far. Even bigger than the Oregon St. win over USC, because this was a win over the number 2 team as 14 point dogs on the Tigers home field in primetime. I really didn't see a letdown coming. But Mizzou looked very unprepared in that game. And made some uncharacteristic mistakes on offense they don't normally make.. It looked like night and day to their Nebraska game the week before. Texas on the other hand looked very sharp in handing the number 1 team OU a defeat. But by my prediction earlier in the week, you know this really didn't surprise me. But it did disappoint me. Texas threw some new offensive schemes at the OU defense that they hadn't seen this year. And they weren't able to adjust. Which is the problem that I've had with these co-defensive coordinators for the last few years..The last 5 games that OU has lost to ranked teams, they've had over 40 points scored on them each time. Which is unacceptable. Something needs to be done. And changes have to be made..Whether it be totally trashing their defensive schemes or a change in defensive coordinators..When Mack Brown's teams have slipped into mediocrity he has at least gone out and hired the best defensive coordinators. And it has paid off for them each time. Stoops may have to do the same thing if he wants to take the next step and start beating the college powers in this country. Something that OU hasn't done in over 4 years.
It was a rough week all the way around last week. The running dogs in my system went 11-8. Which is well below what they've been doing the last few weeks..The overall record for the running dogs this year is 73-26 YTD. Which is a little over 73%. Historically the running dogs have hit at a 77% average. But the challenge each week is finding the right running dogs..Sometimes it works. Sometimes it don't. Hopefully we'll be able to recoup some units this week..Most of my plays are going to be small. I'm also going to start putting in some 1 unit plays for the first time this week. I've been doing pretty well with these plays. So I'm going to start listing them here...Good luck
Baylor at OSU...As you all know this is a typical sandwich/letdown/lookahead spot for OSU this week between Mizzou and Texas. And even though Baylor is the Running Dogs (but very close numbers), I'm not going to make this a big play because things can go downhill in a hurry in Stillwater with this OSU offense. But Baylor QB Griffin has been hot. (9 TD's 0 int's), and he accounts for over 60% of their offense..OU did a pretty decent job at stopping him. But I have my doubts that OSU will have the same success against him..OSU did a great job on defense the other night against Mizzou..But don't forget that was one game..Before that the Pokes had given up 24, 28 and 37 points on defense at home..And i believe this Baylor team is even better than these previous three teams..Baylor still has bowl aspirations. And I believe they're going to give 100% every game to get there...They are also a ball control type of offense. So the Pokes may not get as many touches on offense as they would like..In any other circumstances I believe the linesmakers would have set this line at around 24..But they know as well as us that this is a tough spot for OSU. That's why we are seeing it at 17. This is a Big 12 South Conference game..Nothing comes this easy...OSU needs to watch out here...Taking Baylor (+17) over OSU **
Missouri at Texas...I might not have the same opinion as many of the Horns fans out there right now, but I don't think any team in this conference is going to get out with less than 1 or 2 losses. It could very well cost this conference a seat in the BCS National Championship game..But the defenses in this conference are going to have to step up before I can say any team deserves to be there..Texas has a few of the same problems that OU does..They rank over #100 in pass defense..And they don't have that one go to running back that is needed for a balanced offensive attack..Now I know they threw some new offensive schemes at the soft middle of OU's defense last week..But I seriously doubt they can get away with it twice. I also have my doubts that Texas can play with the same kind of intensity two weeks in a row..This is very hard for any team to do..Especially a team like Texas who is young on defense. They'll be playing a veteran Mizzou offense that is in my opinion more dangerous than OU's because they not only have a mobile QB and great receivers, but they also have a couple good RB's that can burn you. OSU had some great schemes in shooting the gaps on defense last week..But I look for Mizzou to make adjustments this week and throw some different looks at the Texas defense, and attack their weak secondary. This is a showcase game between the two top Heisman candidates..I expect a great performance by both QB's. And I expect a relatively high scoring game..But in my opinion Mizzou can match the Horns score for score..They are that good on offense. And the Tigers are especially dangerous as dogs. Remember when they got that last minute cover last year against OU as 10 points dogs in Norman? Win or lose they can easily do it again here. My numbers have Mizzou as a 5.5 point dog...They are also the running dogs in this game. And the circumstances with the Tigers losing and Texas winning last week make this an even stronger play. I look for this primetime game to come right down to the wire. I think everybody's going to find out in this game how much parity we have in this league..Taking Missouri (+6) over Texas **
Kansas at OU...The big question with OU this week is how are they going to replace their defensive leader LB Ryan Reynolds? The middle linebacker was the heart of the defense. And after he got hurt and left the game, Texas was able to take control with their run game in the 4th quarter. What Stoops is going to do I don't know..He's being very tight lipped about it. Stoops really doesn't have an experienced player to replace this very important position. And this is what bothers me here..I've heard a little of everything this week. That OU maybe going to a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, or move our best safety up in the position. My feeling is OU's defense won't have as much pressure put on them as last week. I really think OU's offense comes out and starts putting the hammer down right out of the gate on Kansas like they have everybody else in the first quarter. Plus Stoops teams have historically done very well ATS after a big loss. My feeling they will here too..But with Reesing and Kansas, the backdoor will always be open. I like OU slightly here..But I like the OVER even more..Taking (OVER 60.5) ** And OU (-19.5) over Kansas *