CUP YTD
19-10 +10.71 Units (Match-Ups)
10-05 +09.82 Units (Props)
04-13 +09.19 Units (Outrights)
Total: +29.72 Units
For the past 5 years or so, longer in some cases, Martinsville has been dominated by the Hendrick and Gibbs teams. Really can't say that I see that changing today.
Match-Ups
1.50 units Juan Montoya (-135) over David Reutimann (@thegreek)
I've been high on JPM this year and IMO still think he will be a factor come September. Statistically, this is his best oval (12.8 avg. finish in 4 starts with his worst finish 16th). He is coming off a Top 10 run at Bristol and I expect a duplicate run here, if not better.
Reutimann is having his best year to date as well, but this type of track is where he has had problems in the past. In 4 starts his best finish is 17th and his avg. finish is 28.3. He may get a Top 20 but he should have to do a lot better than that to place ahead of Montoya.
1.50 units Casey Mears (-125) over Bobby Labonte (@thegreek)
Its time for Mears to show up with this RCR team. Clint Bowyer had this team in the chase the last 2 years, Mears avg. is just 21.8 through 5 races in 2009. This was a good track for Casey LY finishing 6th and 7th driving for Hendrick. All he has to do here is finish in front of a struggling HOF racing team.
1.50 units Dale Jr. (+115) over Tony Stewart (@5dimes)
Do or die early for Jr. Has only one Top 10 so far this year (barely..was 10th at Vegas). I'm looking for a possible Top 5 today. Hendrick, as everyone knows, is very good here and LY Jr. was 2nd and 6th.
Will not be surprised if Smoke is Top 10 but I'm looking for Jr. to place ahead of him.
1.50 units Kevin Harvick (-110) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Harvick having back to back sub-par runs on short tracks would be surprising. He has 4 Top 10's in 6 races at Martinsville, should be around that mark again. Busch has been anything but spectacular here, 27.8 avg. the last 5 races.
1.50 units Denny Hamlin (-125) over Jimmie Johnson (@thegreek)
This may be a close one. JJ has been outstanding here but my 2 favorites to win today are Gordon and Hamlin.
1.50 units Matt Kenseth (-115) over Greg Biffle (thegreek)
This play based on the single fact that head-to-head Kenseth has owned Biffle at Martinsville beating him in 10 out of 11 races.
Props
2.50 units Dale Jr. (-115) under 11.5 (@5dimes)
Hopefully no pit road snafu to kill his day
1.50 units Kurt Busch (-115) over 11.5 (@5dimes)
Has not been a good track for him (27.8 avg the last 5)
Outrights
1.50 units Jeff Gordon (+360) @5dimes
Seems the whole world is on him today, but with good reason. Career numbers at Martinsville: 32 starts/7 wins/20 Top 5/26 Top 10 for an avg. finish of 6.9, not shabby. Hasn't finished outside the Top 5 in 8 races.
0.75 unit Denny Hamlin (+600) @sportsbook.com
Had to shop around for this number. If Gordon doesn't get it done today look for the 11 to be there. In 5 races his avg. finish is 3.4. On flat tracks, he is the best there is.
0.25 unit Dale Jr. (+2500) @thegreek
Has to breakthrough at some point, although I admit it will be tough to get it done today.
Good luck to everyone.
19-10 +10.71 Units (Match-Ups)
10-05 +09.82 Units (Props)
04-13 +09.19 Units (Outrights)
Total: +29.72 Units
For the past 5 years or so, longer in some cases, Martinsville has been dominated by the Hendrick and Gibbs teams. Really can't say that I see that changing today.
Match-Ups
1.50 units Juan Montoya (-135) over David Reutimann (@thegreek)
I've been high on JPM this year and IMO still think he will be a factor come September. Statistically, this is his best oval (12.8 avg. finish in 4 starts with his worst finish 16th). He is coming off a Top 10 run at Bristol and I expect a duplicate run here, if not better.
Reutimann is having his best year to date as well, but this type of track is where he has had problems in the past. In 4 starts his best finish is 17th and his avg. finish is 28.3. He may get a Top 20 but he should have to do a lot better than that to place ahead of Montoya.
1.50 units Casey Mears (-125) over Bobby Labonte (@thegreek)
Its time for Mears to show up with this RCR team. Clint Bowyer had this team in the chase the last 2 years, Mears avg. is just 21.8 through 5 races in 2009. This was a good track for Casey LY finishing 6th and 7th driving for Hendrick. All he has to do here is finish in front of a struggling HOF racing team.
1.50 units Dale Jr. (+115) over Tony Stewart (@5dimes)
Do or die early for Jr. Has only one Top 10 so far this year (barely..was 10th at Vegas). I'm looking for a possible Top 5 today. Hendrick, as everyone knows, is very good here and LY Jr. was 2nd and 6th.
Will not be surprised if Smoke is Top 10 but I'm looking for Jr. to place ahead of him.
1.50 units Kevin Harvick (-110) over Kurt Busch (@5dimes)
Harvick having back to back sub-par runs on short tracks would be surprising. He has 4 Top 10's in 6 races at Martinsville, should be around that mark again. Busch has been anything but spectacular here, 27.8 avg. the last 5 races.
1.50 units Denny Hamlin (-125) over Jimmie Johnson (@thegreek)
This may be a close one. JJ has been outstanding here but my 2 favorites to win today are Gordon and Hamlin.
1.50 units Matt Kenseth (-115) over Greg Biffle (thegreek)
This play based on the single fact that head-to-head Kenseth has owned Biffle at Martinsville beating him in 10 out of 11 races.
Props
2.50 units Dale Jr. (-115) under 11.5 (@5dimes)
Hopefully no pit road snafu to kill his day
1.50 units Kurt Busch (-115) over 11.5 (@5dimes)
Has not been a good track for him (27.8 avg the last 5)
Outrights
1.50 units Jeff Gordon (+360) @5dimes
Seems the whole world is on him today, but with good reason. Career numbers at Martinsville: 32 starts/7 wins/20 Top 5/26 Top 10 for an avg. finish of 6.9, not shabby. Hasn't finished outside the Top 5 in 8 races.
0.75 unit Denny Hamlin (+600) @sportsbook.com
Had to shop around for this number. If Gordon doesn't get it done today look for the 11 to be there. In 5 races his avg. finish is 3.4. On flat tracks, he is the best there is.
0.25 unit Dale Jr. (+2500) @thegreek
Has to breakthrough at some point, although I admit it will be tough to get it done today.
Good luck to everyone.
