[h=1]Warriors chasing history -- fast[/h][h=3]GS could become first team to rank No. 1 in both pace factor and D rating[/h]
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
You can run and you can defend, but you can't do both. This has been one of the longest-held axioms in the NBA.
You can play high-octane hoops like the Phoenix Suns' Seven Seconds Or Less squads from the late 2000s, or you can play smashmouth, grind-it-out Indiana Pacers basketball. But trying to accomplish both? That's a fool's errand.
These Golden State Warriors beg to differ.
So far this season, they're rewriting the script by playing faster and defending better than every other team in the league. How rare is that? Led by first-time head coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors are on track to be the first and only team in the modern NBA -- since 1979 when the 3-point arc was introduced -- to rank No. 1 in both pace and defensive rating.
This is uncharted territory. How are they doing it? And what does it mean for the playoffs?
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But the Warriors have trampled opponents in an unprecedented way: by utilizing a run-and-gun offense and a suffocating defense. Traditionally, top defenses tend to grind out wins at a slow pace, but the Warriors are breaking the mold. They have held opponents to just 97 points per 100 possessions this season, which is easily the best rate in the NBA. And they rank first in pace, churning out 101.3 possessions every 48 minutes.
This is incredibly hard to pull off. Why? Because deploying elite-level defense burns so much energy that it's hard to do it exert such effort on both ends of the floor. It's no coincidence that the past five No. 1 defensive teams have ranked 20th, 25th, 26th, 22nd and 26th in pace factor. The recent Chicago and Indiana teams are prime examples of defensive monsters that lull teams into slow and painful deaths.
To illustrate exactly how rare it is to see the Warriors running and defending at an elite level, I've mapped out every team over the past 10 seasons (including 2014-15) by their rank in pace factor and defensive rating. Each dot represents an NBA team and its corresponding rank in both categories.
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Tom Haberstroh</cite>
See how the Warriors are all alone in that bottom left corner? No teams have been like them. They're in a class of their own, ranking first in both pace and defense. Though the graph shows only the past 10 seasons, no team has accomplished dual No. 1s in the same season in the modern era, according to NBA StatsCube and Basketball-Reference data.
Another thing: Notice how teams tend to cluster in the top left and bottom right quadrants of the chart? Over the past 10 seasons -- again, including 2014-15 -- there is a fairly strong negative correlation between pace and defensive rating. The clustering is that negative correlation being illustrated. The top-left teams have played fast, but they haven't defended. The bottom-right teams have defended well, but they've played at a snail's pace. One goes up, the other must come down. The 2014-15 New York Knicks are the worst of both worlds: They don't defend (29th) and they play at a snoozefest pace (28th). Hence the paper bags.
Interestingly enough, this season's Houston Rockets have come close to matching the Warriors by playing at the fourth-highest pace while boasting the third-best defense. But they're not on the Warriors' level in either category. And secondly, most of their defensive power hinges on one player: Dwight Howard. Not the case with the Warriors.
Curry spearheads the high-velocity attack, but the entire team has bought into moving the ball quickly, something that didn't happen last season. According to SportVU player tracking data, the Warriors rank in the top 10 in passes per game (313) this season. Last season, they ranked last with 245.8 passes per game. No other team finished with fewer than 260. Those extra 70 passes per game have made more efficient use of their energy and talent.
But the defense is where the magic happens. As Ethan Sherwood Strauss detailed in his recent feature story, the Warriors are a switching machine. Every team would love to play efficient defense the way the Dubs do, but not every team has the versatile personnel to pull it off.
"The Warriors have multiple Swiss Army knives on the roster," one longtime NBA scout told ESPN Insider. "Andre Iguodala,Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have no problem guarding three or four positions seamlessly. And it's brutal to go against."
While the Warriors may not have the height of some teams, they have rangy wingspan. With all the switching, they don't have to maniacally chase players around screens for 48 minutes. The strategy minimizes movement while preserving energy. The result: They rank first in effective field goal percentage defense and sixth in opponent turnover rate.
If Curry is the catalyst on offense, Green is the straw that stirs the drink on defense. Despite being undersized at the 4, he ranks fifth in defensive real plus-minus. He owns the seventh-highest steal rate in the league, and half of those steals have come against guards. You want versatility? He's blocked shots by Blake Griffin, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Russell Westbrookand Eric Bledsoe at least twice each this season.
We can look to history to teach us about how up-tempo teams fare in the playoffs. According to Insider pal Kevin Pelton's research, the 15 slowest playoff teams since 1984 have ended up winning only one series below what we'd expect given their seeding. The top-15 fastest teams? They ended up winning only one series more than expected. Translation: Speed barely has an impact.
What matters most in the playoffs is not pace, but rather that the Warriors are elite on both ends of the floor. The Dubs are the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. Plenty of teams have done that in history. But ranking first on defense while playing faster than anybody? We've never seen that before.
• Your Hassan Whiteside update: After another double-double on Tuesday night, he is averaging 17.9 points, 15.2 rebounds and 4.9 blocks every 36 minutes this season. His PER is 27.7, which ranks third in the NBA among qualified players. His early foul trouble has stunted his playing time, but coach Erik Spoelstra has to be more forgiving. Whiteside has finished with just three fouls in his last three games, and the Heat have been outscored by 24 points with him on the bench. As scary as it sounds, the depleted Heat can't win without him.
• Nets trainer Tim Walsh deserves a standing ovation for his life-saving heroics at a recent Nets practice. Shout-out to Adrian Wojnarowski for the incredible story.
• Since taking over the starting role after Brandon Jennings' unfortunate Achilles injury, D.J. Augustin has averaged 21.8 points and 9.2 assists in the past five games. He won't keep shooting 52 percent from the floor or 46 percent from deep. But in Stan Van Gundy's extra-spacy system, there's plenty of real estate for Augustin to do his thing.
• What a story: Paul George is eyeing a return this season. Don't sleep on Indiana, y'all.
• Trivia time: Which team has been the recipient of only one technical foul this season? Last week's trivia answer: Markieff Morris with 17 kicked-ball violations this season. And he has the most technical fouls, too. I don't think that's a coincidence. No one likes the kicked-ball guy, right?
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
You can run and you can defend, but you can't do both. This has been one of the longest-held axioms in the NBA.
You can play high-octane hoops like the Phoenix Suns' Seven Seconds Or Less squads from the late 2000s, or you can play smashmouth, grind-it-out Indiana Pacers basketball. But trying to accomplish both? That's a fool's errand.
These Golden State Warriors beg to differ.
So far this season, they're rewriting the script by playing faster and defending better than every other team in the league. How rare is that? Led by first-time head coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors are on track to be the first and only team in the modern NBA -- since 1979 when the 3-point arc was introduced -- to rank No. 1 in both pace and defensive rating.
This is uncharted territory. How are they doing it? And what does it mean for the playoffs?
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[h=3]The Warriors stand alone[/h]The Warriors' furious ascension into juggernaut status has been one of the most eye-opening storylines of the 2014-15 season. They've cruised to an NBA-best 38-8 record in a loaded Western Conference and outscored opponents by more than 500 points through 46 games, becoming one of eight teams in NBA history to trample opponents by such a wide margin at this point in the season. The last team to pull off such a feat? The 1996-97 Chicago Bulls.But the Warriors have trampled opponents in an unprecedented way: by utilizing a run-and-gun offense and a suffocating defense. Traditionally, top defenses tend to grind out wins at a slow pace, but the Warriors are breaking the mold. They have held opponents to just 97 points per 100 possessions this season, which is easily the best rate in the NBA. And they rank first in pace, churning out 101.3 possessions every 48 minutes.
This is incredibly hard to pull off. Why? Because deploying elite-level defense burns so much energy that it's hard to do it exert such effort on both ends of the floor. It's no coincidence that the past five No. 1 defensive teams have ranked 20th, 25th, 26th, 22nd and 26th in pace factor. The recent Chicago and Indiana teams are prime examples of defensive monsters that lull teams into slow and painful deaths.
To illustrate exactly how rare it is to see the Warriors running and defending at an elite level, I've mapped out every team over the past 10 seasons (including 2014-15) by their rank in pace factor and defensive rating. Each dot represents an NBA team and its corresponding rank in both categories.
See how the Warriors are all alone in that bottom left corner? No teams have been like them. They're in a class of their own, ranking first in both pace and defense. Though the graph shows only the past 10 seasons, no team has accomplished dual No. 1s in the same season in the modern era, according to NBA StatsCube and Basketball-Reference data.
Another thing: Notice how teams tend to cluster in the top left and bottom right quadrants of the chart? Over the past 10 seasons -- again, including 2014-15 -- there is a fairly strong negative correlation between pace and defensive rating. The clustering is that negative correlation being illustrated. The top-left teams have played fast, but they haven't defended. The bottom-right teams have defended well, but they've played at a snail's pace. One goes up, the other must come down. The 2014-15 New York Knicks are the worst of both worlds: They don't defend (29th) and they play at a snoozefest pace (28th). Hence the paper bags.
Interestingly enough, this season's Houston Rockets have come close to matching the Warriors by playing at the fourth-highest pace while boasting the third-best defense. But they're not on the Warriors' level in either category. And secondly, most of their defensive power hinges on one player: Dwight Howard. Not the case with the Warriors.
[h=3]How do they do it?[/h]Having a high-energy floor general like Stephen Curry helps. He is this generation's Steve Nash, except Nash didn't bring it defensively as well. Only the Phoenix Suns have more transition points than the Warriors this season, per Synergy tracking. The Warriors love to push the ball and create chaos in the open court, which wasn't always the case last season. Then, they hunted for mismatches; now, they create them with speed.Curry spearheads the high-velocity attack, but the entire team has bought into moving the ball quickly, something that didn't happen last season. According to SportVU player tracking data, the Warriors rank in the top 10 in passes per game (313) this season. Last season, they ranked last with 245.8 passes per game. No other team finished with fewer than 260. Those extra 70 passes per game have made more efficient use of their energy and talent.
But the defense is where the magic happens. As Ethan Sherwood Strauss detailed in his recent feature story, the Warriors are a switching machine. Every team would love to play efficient defense the way the Dubs do, but not every team has the versatile personnel to pull it off.
"The Warriors have multiple Swiss Army knives on the roster," one longtime NBA scout told ESPN Insider. "Andre Iguodala,Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have no problem guarding three or four positions seamlessly. And it's brutal to go against."
While the Warriors may not have the height of some teams, they have rangy wingspan. With all the switching, they don't have to maniacally chase players around screens for 48 minutes. The strategy minimizes movement while preserving energy. The result: They rank first in effective field goal percentage defense and sixth in opponent turnover rate.
If Curry is the catalyst on offense, Green is the straw that stirs the drink on defense. Despite being undersized at the 4, he ranks fifth in defensive real plus-minus. He owns the seventh-highest steal rate in the league, and half of those steals have come against guards. You want versatility? He's blocked shots by Blake Griffin, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Russell Westbrookand Eric Bledsoe at least twice each this season.
[h=3]What does it mean for the playoffs?[/h]It's hard to say. We know the game slows down in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Warriors can't downshift and excel that way. To wit: They are 10-0 in their 10 slowest games this season, beating more methodical teams like Cleveland, Chicago and Toronto.We can look to history to teach us about how up-tempo teams fare in the playoffs. According to Insider pal Kevin Pelton's research, the 15 slowest playoff teams since 1984 have ended up winning only one series below what we'd expect given their seeding. The top-15 fastest teams? They ended up winning only one series more than expected. Translation: Speed barely has an impact.
What matters most in the playoffs is not pace, but rather that the Warriors are elite on both ends of the floor. The Dubs are the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. Plenty of teams have done that in history. But ranking first on defense while playing faster than anybody? We've never seen that before.
[h=3]News and notes[/h]• Speaking of defense, guess who owns the best D since the calendar flipped to 2015? It's theCharlotte Hornets. They've held opponents to just 92.7 points per 100 possessions since Jan. 1. Watch a Hornets game and it's bound to be a pitcher's duel; they own the fourth-worst offense over that time, as well. This season the Hornets have allowed a miniscule 89.8 points per 100 possessions in the 339 minutes when Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bismack Biyombo have taken the floor, per NBA.com. Credit coach Steve Clifford for turning the season around and getting the Hornets into the seventh slot in the East.• Your Hassan Whiteside update: After another double-double on Tuesday night, he is averaging 17.9 points, 15.2 rebounds and 4.9 blocks every 36 minutes this season. His PER is 27.7, which ranks third in the NBA among qualified players. His early foul trouble has stunted his playing time, but coach Erik Spoelstra has to be more forgiving. Whiteside has finished with just three fouls in his last three games, and the Heat have been outscored by 24 points with him on the bench. As scary as it sounds, the depleted Heat can't win without him.
• Nets trainer Tim Walsh deserves a standing ovation for his life-saving heroics at a recent Nets practice. Shout-out to Adrian Wojnarowski for the incredible story.
• Since taking over the starting role after Brandon Jennings' unfortunate Achilles injury, D.J. Augustin has averaged 21.8 points and 9.2 assists in the past five games. He won't keep shooting 52 percent from the floor or 46 percent from deep. But in Stan Van Gundy's extra-spacy system, there's plenty of real estate for Augustin to do his thing.
• What a story: Paul George is eyeing a return this season. Don't sleep on Indiana, y'all.
• Trivia time: Which team has been the recipient of only one technical foul this season? Last week's trivia answer: Markieff Morris with 17 kicked-ball violations this season. And he has the most technical fouls, too. I don't think that's a coincidence. No one likes the kicked-ball guy, right?
