New read on Home Page that I thought might interest some of you...
http://www.therx.com/nm/templates/article.asp?articleid=1247&zoneid=1
GOING AGAINST THE PUBLIC 09/16/03 - Steve "Cubby" Drumm
One of the most effective ways to beat the NFL pointspread, particularly after the first two weeks of the regular season, is to go against the betting public. This is because the NFL is the sport that is not only the most heavily bet, but also the sport where the public does the poorest. Since the public wins less than 50 percent of the time, they'd do better if they flipped a coin.
Therefore, I naturally incorporate going against the public into my system. Specifically, I use my inside contacts to find out where the public is on games and then usually go the other way, especially if the public is lopsided on a game (70/30 or more).
I by no means do this blindly, as it accounts for about 30 to 35 percent of my system. But very rarely do I bet on a game where the public has a lopsided opinion. When I do, it’s almost always a small play.
On the other hand it is likely, but by no means certain, that I will go against the public in games where they have a lopsided opinion.
Contrary to popular belief, one can't look at line moves to determine where the public is on a game. This is true for several reasons.
First, where the public is on a game (the number of people betting on each side in a game) and where the money is not always one and the same. Often times the public will be on one side in a game and the money will be even or on the other side.
Second, line moves are often determined by which side the ‘wise’ guys play, not which side the general public plays.
Third, often times the linesmakers adjust the line to take into account injuries they did not know about earlier in the week.
Finally, oddsmakers often move the lines without concomitant action as a means of fooling the public. They often do this to get them to bet on the wrong side or to get more action on a game.
Why does the public do so poorly wagering on the NFL? Well the fact that the NFL is the sport that is the most heavily bet is precisely one of the main reasons why the public does worse on it than it does on all other sports.
Serious betters, including ‘wise’ guys, have a tendency to bet most or all sports, as they are doing it to make money (they view their sports betting as a business).
This serves in contrast with more casual betters, who wager primarily because they have an interest in the sport or are seeking a "rush". Since the NFL is the most followed sport in the United States, it naturally attracts a lot of casual betters. This, in turn, causes the skill level of the median bettor to be lower in the NFL than it is in other sports.
Additionally, since the NFL is the sport that is the most heavily bet, that gives the bookmakers an incentive to concentrate a disproportionate amount of their attention and time on setting sharp NFL lines. Those lines are designed to maximize their profit margins for the NFL, and hence their overall profitability.
This brings me to my next point. The lines are set in such a way as to either get equal action on a game or to get the majority of the people on the wrong side.
How do bookmakers do this? They first decide the true line, or what I like to call the "value line" is. Say for example that the Packers are playing the Bears at home, and the bookmakers determine that the true value line is Green Bay minus 6 1/2.
This means the bookmakers believe that if the Packers played the Bears 1,000 times in Green Bay (hypothetically, of course, with each team having the same players injured in each game as they do now), Green Bay would win by seven points or more 500 times.
However, contrary to popular belief, bookmakers don't stop there. They then gauge what the range is of what I like to call the "public perception line" (which reflects the opinion of the median bettor), i.e. the line that will evenly divide the public 50/50.
Say, for example, that in the Packers/Bears scenario bookmakers determine that the public perception line is somewhere between Green Bay minus eight and Green Bay minus 10. They'll naturally set the actual pointspread at Green Bay minus eight because that is the number within the public perception line range that is closest to the "value line".
Thus, if it turns out that the public perception line really is Green Bay minus eight, the bookmakers will get even action on the game and they will be guaranteed to make the vigorish as a profit.
To take things to the other extreme, if the public perception line is really Green Bay minus 10, then bookmakers will get a disproportionate amount of action on the Packers. Since the actual pointspread (Green Bay minus eight) is greater than the value line (Green Bay minus 6 1/2), the Bears would be the ‘right’ side or the ‘smart’ side
Hence, the majority of the public is on the wrong side of the game. And this example illustrates the main reason why when the public is lopsided and usually on the wrong side.
If you would like to go with one of America's top NFL handicappers who incorporates going against the public into his system, then give me a call at 1-866-292-6023. Also check out my Web site at www.cubbydrumm.com.
http://www.therx.com/nm/templates/article.asp?articleid=1247&zoneid=1
GOING AGAINST THE PUBLIC 09/16/03 - Steve "Cubby" Drumm
One of the most effective ways to beat the NFL pointspread, particularly after the first two weeks of the regular season, is to go against the betting public. This is because the NFL is the sport that is not only the most heavily bet, but also the sport where the public does the poorest. Since the public wins less than 50 percent of the time, they'd do better if they flipped a coin.
Therefore, I naturally incorporate going against the public into my system. Specifically, I use my inside contacts to find out where the public is on games and then usually go the other way, especially if the public is lopsided on a game (70/30 or more).
I by no means do this blindly, as it accounts for about 30 to 35 percent of my system. But very rarely do I bet on a game where the public has a lopsided opinion. When I do, it’s almost always a small play.
On the other hand it is likely, but by no means certain, that I will go against the public in games where they have a lopsided opinion.
Contrary to popular belief, one can't look at line moves to determine where the public is on a game. This is true for several reasons.
First, where the public is on a game (the number of people betting on each side in a game) and where the money is not always one and the same. Often times the public will be on one side in a game and the money will be even or on the other side.
Second, line moves are often determined by which side the ‘wise’ guys play, not which side the general public plays.
Third, often times the linesmakers adjust the line to take into account injuries they did not know about earlier in the week.
Finally, oddsmakers often move the lines without concomitant action as a means of fooling the public. They often do this to get them to bet on the wrong side or to get more action on a game.
Why does the public do so poorly wagering on the NFL? Well the fact that the NFL is the sport that is the most heavily bet is precisely one of the main reasons why the public does worse on it than it does on all other sports.
Serious betters, including ‘wise’ guys, have a tendency to bet most or all sports, as they are doing it to make money (they view their sports betting as a business).
This serves in contrast with more casual betters, who wager primarily because they have an interest in the sport or are seeking a "rush". Since the NFL is the most followed sport in the United States, it naturally attracts a lot of casual betters. This, in turn, causes the skill level of the median bettor to be lower in the NFL than it is in other sports.
Additionally, since the NFL is the sport that is the most heavily bet, that gives the bookmakers an incentive to concentrate a disproportionate amount of their attention and time on setting sharp NFL lines. Those lines are designed to maximize their profit margins for the NFL, and hence their overall profitability.
This brings me to my next point. The lines are set in such a way as to either get equal action on a game or to get the majority of the people on the wrong side.
How do bookmakers do this? They first decide the true line, or what I like to call the "value line" is. Say for example that the Packers are playing the Bears at home, and the bookmakers determine that the true value line is Green Bay minus 6 1/2.
This means the bookmakers believe that if the Packers played the Bears 1,000 times in Green Bay (hypothetically, of course, with each team having the same players injured in each game as they do now), Green Bay would win by seven points or more 500 times.
However, contrary to popular belief, bookmakers don't stop there. They then gauge what the range is of what I like to call the "public perception line" (which reflects the opinion of the median bettor), i.e. the line that will evenly divide the public 50/50.
Say, for example, that in the Packers/Bears scenario bookmakers determine that the public perception line is somewhere between Green Bay minus eight and Green Bay minus 10. They'll naturally set the actual pointspread at Green Bay minus eight because that is the number within the public perception line range that is closest to the "value line".
Thus, if it turns out that the public perception line really is Green Bay minus eight, the bookmakers will get even action on the game and they will be guaranteed to make the vigorish as a profit.
To take things to the other extreme, if the public perception line is really Green Bay minus 10, then bookmakers will get a disproportionate amount of action on the Packers. Since the actual pointspread (Green Bay minus eight) is greater than the value line (Green Bay minus 6 1/2), the Bears would be the ‘right’ side or the ‘smart’ side
Hence, the majority of the public is on the wrong side of the game. And this example illustrates the main reason why when the public is lopsided and usually on the wrong side.
If you would like to go with one of America's top NFL handicappers who incorporates going against the public into his system, then give me a call at 1-866-292-6023. Also check out my Web site at www.cubbydrumm.com.
