Murder the playoffs year in and year out. Always try to go with certain little aspects of games that seem to consistently win or lose games.
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
On Saturday the Cardinals will host thier first playoff game in what seems like forever. They are coming into this game with very low expectations. They opened the season on a 7-3 run and crawled to the finish with a 2-4 run. Why the slow finish? Well it is a mixture of two things; a tough schedule and the fact they rapped up the division in early December. Those last four losses game vs the Giants, @ Philly just 4 days later on Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota, and @ New England with the last two being after the division was wrapped up. However, they went out in Week 17 and got the win at home to give them the slightest bit of momentum going into the playoffs.
The Cardinals have had two real nice wins this year, both at home. First they romped the Miami Dolphins in Arizona and then took the Cowboys into overtime and won it, again in Arizona. The two home losses were a very hard fought loss against the Giants and the week after clinching the division against the Vikings which are both excusable losses.
Now the Atlanta Falcons came into the season with some very low expectations and have become the biggest surprise of the NFL season with an 11-5 record and were even in position to win the division late on Sunday. The Falcons played very well at home with a 7-1 record but on the road performed very mediocre with a 4-4 mark. The lost @ Philly, @ Tampa, @ Carolina, and @ New Orleans. All those losses are exceptable losses however, what worries me is Michael Turners inability to run the ball well on the road. On the road vs good teams Turner was extremley inconsistent. Here are his road games vs quality teams.
-In Week 2 @ Tampa he managed just 25 yards on 13 carries if you take out a 17 yarder he broke. That performance put the pressure on Matt Ryan who went just 13/33 with 0 Td's and 0 Int's.
-In Week 4 @ Carolina he went just 18 carries for 56 yards. This caused another bad Matt Ryan performance with just 21/41 completions, 0 Td's and 0 Int's.
-In Week 8 @ Philly he went for 36 yards on 16 carries if you leave out his one 22 yard scamper. Again Matt Ryan struggled going 23/44 with 2 Td's and 2 Int's.
-In Week 13 @ New Orleans he went for just 37 yards on 16 carries if you take out his one 26 yard carry. Matt Ryan was able to have some success in this one with 315 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT.
-In Week 15 @ Minnesota he went for 70 yards on 19 carries in an Atlanta win.
Now believe it or not Arizona falls into the category of a good team (when playing at home). Now contrary to the belief Matt Ryan is a game manager, not a game changer. Yes, he will make a few big plays but he will not be dropping back 35 times throwing for 300 yards and 4 Td's. The guy hasn't completed 25 passes in a game all year and hasn't thrown 3 TD's yet. Now if he is in fact going to try to manage this game he is going to need Michael Turner to run the ball well which he has shown the inability to do on the road.
So will Turner be able to run the ball? Well the Cardinals are giving up just 86.7 rushing yards per game at home if you take out one game vs the Vikings. That number includes two under 85 yard performances from the Dolphins and Giants.
So now this leaves us with the Cardinals pass heavy offense vs. a lack luster Atlanta pass defense. The Cardinals have the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> best passing offense in the NFL and when they go up against top 16 passing offenses they are giving up 260.5 passing YPG. Take out their best performance (@ SD, 149 yards) and our total boosts to 276.5 passing YPG. To add to this the Falcons are just 27<SUP>th</SUP> in the NFL in interceptions. Very interesting how all these mismatches favor the Cardinals at home.
So we have everyone backing a very inexperienced Falcon team against the Arizona Cardinals playing their first home game in an extremely long time. All the while we know Michael Turner can’t run on the road, the Cards play well vs. the run at home, the Cards pass very well and the Falcons can’t defend the pass very well. I know who I am taking.
Arizona Cardinals 28
Atlanta Falcons 17
Cardinals +2 (4 Units)
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
On Saturday the Cardinals will host thier first playoff game in what seems like forever. They are coming into this game with very low expectations. They opened the season on a 7-3 run and crawled to the finish with a 2-4 run. Why the slow finish? Well it is a mixture of two things; a tough schedule and the fact they rapped up the division in early December. Those last four losses game vs the Giants, @ Philly just 4 days later on Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota, and @ New England with the last two being after the division was wrapped up. However, they went out in Week 17 and got the win at home to give them the slightest bit of momentum going into the playoffs.
The Cardinals have had two real nice wins this year, both at home. First they romped the Miami Dolphins in Arizona and then took the Cowboys into overtime and won it, again in Arizona. The two home losses were a very hard fought loss against the Giants and the week after clinching the division against the Vikings which are both excusable losses.
Now the Atlanta Falcons came into the season with some very low expectations and have become the biggest surprise of the NFL season with an 11-5 record and were even in position to win the division late on Sunday. The Falcons played very well at home with a 7-1 record but on the road performed very mediocre with a 4-4 mark. The lost @ Philly, @ Tampa, @ Carolina, and @ New Orleans. All those losses are exceptable losses however, what worries me is Michael Turners inability to run the ball well on the road. On the road vs good teams Turner was extremley inconsistent. Here are his road games vs quality teams.
-In Week 2 @ Tampa he managed just 25 yards on 13 carries if you take out a 17 yarder he broke. That performance put the pressure on Matt Ryan who went just 13/33 with 0 Td's and 0 Int's.
-In Week 4 @ Carolina he went just 18 carries for 56 yards. This caused another bad Matt Ryan performance with just 21/41 completions, 0 Td's and 0 Int's.
-In Week 8 @ Philly he went for 36 yards on 16 carries if you leave out his one 22 yard scamper. Again Matt Ryan struggled going 23/44 with 2 Td's and 2 Int's.
-In Week 13 @ New Orleans he went for just 37 yards on 16 carries if you take out his one 26 yard carry. Matt Ryan was able to have some success in this one with 315 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT.
-In Week 15 @ Minnesota he went for 70 yards on 19 carries in an Atlanta win.
Now believe it or not Arizona falls into the category of a good team (when playing at home). Now contrary to the belief Matt Ryan is a game manager, not a game changer. Yes, he will make a few big plays but he will not be dropping back 35 times throwing for 300 yards and 4 Td's. The guy hasn't completed 25 passes in a game all year and hasn't thrown 3 TD's yet. Now if he is in fact going to try to manage this game he is going to need Michael Turner to run the ball well which he has shown the inability to do on the road.
So will Turner be able to run the ball? Well the Cardinals are giving up just 86.7 rushing yards per game at home if you take out one game vs the Vikings. That number includes two under 85 yard performances from the Dolphins and Giants.
So now this leaves us with the Cardinals pass heavy offense vs. a lack luster Atlanta pass defense. The Cardinals have the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> best passing offense in the NFL and when they go up against top 16 passing offenses they are giving up 260.5 passing YPG. Take out their best performance (@ SD, 149 yards) and our total boosts to 276.5 passing YPG. To add to this the Falcons are just 27<SUP>th</SUP> in the NFL in interceptions. Very interesting how all these mismatches favor the Cardinals at home.
So we have everyone backing a very inexperienced Falcon team against the Arizona Cardinals playing their first home game in an extremely long time. All the while we know Michael Turner can’t run on the road, the Cards play well vs. the run at home, the Cards pass very well and the Falcons can’t defend the pass very well. I know who I am taking.
Arizona Cardinals 28
Atlanta Falcons 17
Cardinals +2 (4 Units)
:drink:
