Drunk: Yes it's correlated, see title of thread. That's why I bet them. I still have a few outs left.
Blue: You are judging results to quickly. One week isn't much time. I look for road fav's -1.5 and over, but I don't play all of them. It's not unusual to get 4:1 payoffs on it.
I don't like the dog +1.5/under as much, shorter odds, and you can lose in early innings.Also overs seem to be indicated early in the season. Playing the other way you are still live until the final out.
Doug