Heatwave said:
Been gambling a few years now and one thing I have noticed it happens alot more than one thinks. For example if there are some day games and a majority goes over ...more times than not the night games will go under. I am not saying it happens all the time but take a look sometimes and you will notice this also....JMO
it's called regression to the mean when we are talking about a single team, not to be confused with the incorrect "law of averages", but of course you don't know WHEN something wil regress to the mean but you know it will.
What max is saying is and I don't mean to offend you max, is bollocks this just doesnt happen, day games whether they go over, under or sideways have no bearing on the probabilities of night games.
What max is saying is and I don't mean to offend you max, is bollocks this just doesnt happen, day games whether they go over, under or sideways have no bearing on the probabilities of night games.
Was on the under myself (check the contest for proof before calling me an aftertimer). Nice one SportSavant!! 
Despite not rating the German team all that highly compared to previous years I think that with a good crowd support the further they go the more difficult they are going to become to knock off.
Despite not rating the German team all that highly compared to previous years I think that with a good crowd support the further they go the more difficult they are going to become to knock off.
what max is saying does have a bit of merit in this sense... that it is often public perception that this type of thing will happen.... for example, if all the games in the NFL go over on a given sunday, people may think the night game will go under & bet accordingly.....
now where this has value, (IMO) is to fade that thinking & take the over (as long as the line has over-reacted)
now where this has value, (IMO) is to fade that thinking & take the over (as long as the line has over-reacted)
A further angle is if you believe one single factor has affected the games, which will also be present in future games.
In this case there are 3 possible aspects to consider:
1. The heat & humidity is exceptional for Germany in June. This would perhaps lead to teams tiring in later stages and more goals going in.
2. The balls are juiced. This is definite, it is official FIFA policy to use balls which promote swerve. Which makes shots harder for goalies to save and so leads to more goals.
3. Most teams appear to be playing more adventurously than normal. The opening matches are normally very cagey with lots of draws, but not this time. The third matches in these groups normally see high scoring except in those games where a draw suits both teams. Often teams in the third matches must win to stay in the event, and in some cases must win by more than one goal - so they will attack from the outset.
Overall my own view is that each of these factors is chipping in a little bit to the "overs". I will especially be looking to back the over in the matches played in the heat of the day where fatigue and the ball swerve factor are likely to have a higher influence.
In this case there are 3 possible aspects to consider:
1. The heat & humidity is exceptional for Germany in June. This would perhaps lead to teams tiring in later stages and more goals going in.
2. The balls are juiced. This is definite, it is official FIFA policy to use balls which promote swerve. Which makes shots harder for goalies to save and so leads to more goals.
3. Most teams appear to be playing more adventurously than normal. The opening matches are normally very cagey with lots of draws, but not this time. The third matches in these groups normally see high scoring except in those games where a draw suits both teams. Often teams in the third matches must win to stay in the event, and in some cases must win by more than one goal - so they will attack from the outset.
Overall my own view is that each of these factors is chipping in a little bit to the "overs". I will especially be looking to back the over in the matches played in the heat of the day where fatigue and the ball swerve factor are likely to have a higher influence.
