general odds of 1.5 run line favorite winning by 1?

stayeven · Jul 6, 2003

Anyone ever look up the stats for a favorite team to win by only 1 run? Is it more than 25%? Obviously team by team may vary, but there should be a general stat thats available. IT appears the books have it as the chances being 25% or greater by the looks of their runlines v. -1.5 lines.

stayeven

PatrickMcIrish · Jul 10, 2003

Home favorites win by exactly 1 run 18.4% of the time, road favorites win by 1 run 11.6% of the time. Hope this helps you sir.

IDENTITY · Jul 10, 2003

patrick - dicky v said it was 33% of the time one run games. was he wrong?

jwunderdog · Jul 10, 2003

Identity you might be thinking about all games not just favorites winning by one. That 18% sounds about right for favorites.

PatrickMcIrish · Jul 11, 2003

ID - We're pretty close, I am saying it is 30% combined. My info may be for a shorter or longer period of time. To expand further...

-------- Home favorities // Road favorites------------

Wins by 2 runs or more 39.1% // 43.6%
Win by exactly 1 run 18.4% // 11.6%
Lose by exactly 1 run 11.0% // 16.4%
Lose by 2 runs or more 31.5% // 28.4%

stayeven · Jul 21, 2003

where are the numbers coming from..what sources?

it would appear that if home or away favorites win by only 1 run between 12 and 18% i would be very very interested in this confirmation!!!

GAMBLIN1 · Jul 21, 2003

Shouldnt the real info you seek is how often can you win playing runlines with favs? Pats info provides it. Why the fascination with onerune games when all want to know if the runline covers?

ThreeUnits · Jul 21, 2003

I have been occasionally posting an update on how this has been faring this year (see http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=746097022&m=52510322 ), but stopped when it seemed few were interested.

The Runline dogs +1.5 are covering at a 60% clip.