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Another quick question, is this based on the fact that you have a friend who is a bookie, who has a player who has been on fire and just played the Expos for 5 Dimes? Or did you actually handicap the game?
The way I see this game is essetiatally that Claudio Vargas can't be trusted to picth well against a very strong Brave lineup (check lineups for Andruw Jones), his record in July is 1 - 3 with an ERA of 6.17. These numbers make me nervous so I am passing this game. Unless of course you have some info I may have overlooked..
Thanks again, Wil.
The way I see this game is essetiatally that Claudio Vargas can't be trusted to picth well against a very strong Brave lineup (check lineups for Andruw Jones), his record in July is 1 - 3 with an ERA of 6.17. These numbers make me nervous so I am passing this game. Unless of course you have some info I may have overlooked..
Thanks again, Wil.
RAMIREZ is 1-1 when starting against MONTREAL with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.929.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)
CLAUDIO VARGAS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
VARGAS is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)
CLAUDIO VARGAS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
VARGAS is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)
Thanks for the info. I like to handicap a pitcher by recent form, lifetime #'s Vs. an opponet are useful but IMO not as important as form, recently Vargas has been shaky, on the same hand Ramirez has been equally unsteady of late. Thus the pass. A. Jones status also a factor,he pulled a hamstring yesterday and is day to day, he is a main cog in Brave lineup. Quite a few factors here are question marks and I believe there are softer spots in the schedule tonight.
wil.
wil.
if it holds to form, braves will win.. so many ways to beat you, this year. as some of you know, i follow this team closely, andruw jones will probably play, he is one of the toughest guys around.. i dont know if he loves baseball that much or he just hates to sit it out.. ive seen him play when others would want to be on the dl, if he doesnt play tonight, it was bobby's call.. you guys are right about ramirez recently, and they may light him up. interesting game to say the least, for me - im going small on the best team in baseball..
The trick is to find what you or I consider value, its easy to say a -245 favorite looks like a strong play. But finding small betable favs. and live dogs is the real test of a good capper. I generally play games no higher than -159 on the money line and prefer to stay under -140. This year is strange, I am finding more value in total team handicapping than just concentrating on starting pitchers. Several teams are red hot right now, like the Braves, Giants, Yanks, Phils (road), Astros (med hot), Royals (great dogs) and I can see the White Sox really heating up. I like Wade Miller to be strong tonight, if he can go 7 good innings (3 runs or less) the Astros pen will mop up in the 8th and 9th vs. disheartened Cub squad. Is it me or do you see Rob Beck coming back to Earth soon with the Padres. If he is asked to save the game tonight at Pac-Bell, I don't like his chances.
wil.
wil.
great call russ,
atlanta only being a -120 favorite
everyone will be on them, its way too easy
to take atlanta, they will be toast on the turf
tonight
expos are the play nice call and
congrats on the easy win!
sometimes the oddsmakers make it way too easy!
expos +110 for 50 units!
oh by the way my units are cases of
milwaukees best ice
yeah the beast!!!!!
can you dig itttttttttttttttt?????
atlanta only being a -120 favorite
everyone will be on them, its way too easy
to take atlanta, they will be toast on the turf
tonight
expos are the play nice call and
congrats on the easy win!
sometimes the oddsmakers make it way too easy!
expos +110 for 50 units!
oh by the way my units are cases of
milwaukees best ice
yeah the beast!!!!!
can you dig itttttttttttttttt?????
wil, cubs are one of those teams that beat you both ways,, on or against, they beat you.. when i put my faith in either of these teams they have bitten me,, i had houston last night, and sheets shut them down, zambrano is another power righty.. i still think the cubs will win the central, its all going to be riding on the last ditch effort in this lofton trade, and they need something out of ramirez.. this is definately an important series for the cubs, they cant be swept, look at how az feels now, after the giants swept them. can you say wild card only..
I know what your saying, these divisional games are critical. Like they say "nothing is easy". I played Cubs yesterday figuring Wood to dominate, I just overlooked how well the Phils aare playing on the road of late. Luckily I had the O's early, as I believe you did also. I am looking hard at Royals game right now and will probably play them as well -49 cents at Pinnacle right now, opened -50 yesterday, sometimes I wait for late money but something tells me this game will be bet up another dime by game time.
GL. tonight. Wil.
GL. tonight. Wil.
there is no logical reason to take the tigers in this spot.. royals 8-1 against them, 30-10 against central division foes,, hernandez is the better pitcher in this matchup,, detroit sucks and is the worst team in baseball and kc may win the division.. however as you well know, anything can happen, detroit could win 10-0.. all i am saying is, the setup is good. what i look for in a game to bet is there.. like i said, give me the better team, the hotter team, the better pitcher at a bettable price.. i (like you) dont play big favorites, about 1 out of 10 plays will be something over 1.50, and i dont think ive bet anything over 1.80 all year.. on the flip side, i dont play dogs in that price range either, its kind of on the same scale.. i like from +1.50 to -1.50..
