GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY W/ TOP 6 UNIT PLAY! *Again, No Rec Padding, No Alias, No LIES, just plays.

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Gang. Well yesterday we came so close to getting the SWEEP. No excuses, just some very unfortunate and unbelievable occurances that went against us.

Ex: Illinois quit playing with 3mins left in game only down by 10

, and the outrageous differential at the line for the Texas/X game in the 2nd HF, seeing Texas getting 4 chances vs Xaviers 23 chances at the charity stripe.

Hmmm, in one game the Coach leaves ? marks, in the other the ref's leaves ? marks.

WTF. Still, a loss is a loss is a loss. Just like a Rec Padder is a Rec Padder, and a Liar is a Liar. Hey if it is intentional, then your GUILTY.

My Record of 8 CONSECUTIVE WINNING WEEKS is seriously in jeopardy, as we near the end of the week. As I had said All along this is a very HARD time to cap games due to the jumbling of Conf's and teams, and all the intangibles involved. It is not like Conf play where it is easier to make selections due to common opponents in the Conf. This is the reason why also, that alot of very SOLID CAPPERS here and there are dissappearing left and right, and none is really dominating. Gang, PLEASE DO NOT GET OUT OF HAND in this time. Watch out for the Media Hype on Games as we enter the FINAL FOUR GAMES. Dont forget that FB is approaching very fast, and also do not buy into other people using "SYSTEMS", and saying this Tournament Games is so EZ to pick. BULLSHIT!

This is the hardest time to select games, as it is not about the past Conf games. The past games didnt have so much really at stake at that time, as the games in this Tournament does. This time it does and many more things come into play besides just matchups and numbers. Every team is playing with the highest of emotions and motivations, and when motivation and emotions run high, so do players, thus THE UPSETS. No "SYSTEM" can reflect this, or can take this into account, their are intangible twists that are now involved in the mix. Just look at ALL the upsets as I mentioned. Who, but a few, could see Stanford, Gonzaga, and Kentucky getting knocked out this fast and by these teams. Maybe lose vs the spread, but SU. So take caution Gang, and please use your head. Lets end this season at least wearing our Panties and Jock Straps.

Ok lets get to a NON-PADDED RECORD, this weeks record combined is 9W-13L= -25 Units.(less vig). Today, I have Two Big Plays that have developed based on these teams previous wins. The matchups I see gives my sides alot of advantages and this is why I have designated them with such a high value. One is a GOM Play, and this year my GOM Plays are 12W-2L= +70 Units.(86%) The other is a solid 6 Unit Play, which just missed being a GOM, because the line I feel has been a bit overinflated, but I still feel that it will get their today. So without anymore delays, LETS GET TO ROCKIN-N-ROLLIN BABY!

'

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 27, 2004 at 08:02 AM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

**7 UNIT ELITE 8 GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON:


OKLAHOMA ST -2(PUSH SHIT)


-What a showdown we got here today Gang. Two teams who feel that they deserve to be the #1 seed in this Tourney face off for more than a just a trip to the Final Four, but also for the respect that they feel they deserve. Ok St felt that they should have been given the #1 seed, and I am in complete agreement with them. Thus, my selection backing OK ST today.

In this one we will see a SHIT load of very talented Guards, who will definately be responsible for their teams getting the Win today and moving on to the final four. St Joes may have a slight edge in its Guard play with Nelson, West, and Carroll. This trio was responsible for 65 of St Joes 84pts vs WF. St Joes is a team that lives and dies with its guard plays and there ability to light it up from downtown. In fact, they are ranked 5th in the land from behind the ARC shooting 40.8%, and this has been the MAIN reason for their success this year. St Joes lives and dies by their ability to hit the 3pt shots, because they basically do not have an inside game that demands any type of respect at all. In fact, in their last game vs WF, WF's C Eric Williams scored 19pts which was 15 more than both of ST Joes inside starters. WOW. TT exposed this weakness and they almost pulled off an upset, but they had really only G Emmett to complete the balance domination of INSIDE and OUTSIDE which was slightly not enough. TT, did though show WF the way to exploit this weakness of St Joes, but again it fell short as they too only had G Paul to rely on to balance their INSIDE and OUTSIDE game. Still, WF had come closer than TT did at knocking off this St Joes squad. Now, Ok ST has two teams with somewhat balanced attacks to reflect upon and make adjustments to accomplish what these two team fell just short of accomplishing. What gives them the high probability in my opinion of accomplishing this, is the fact they are a much more talented team then TT and WF is, and they are a much more balanced team from the perimeter and in the paint.

Now, here is the difference and advantage for Ok St here. Not only do they have a very balance attack with the INSIDE banging of McFarlin and Graham who are 3rd and 4th on the team in DD scoring, but they have the OUTSIDE/INSIDE game with G Lucas, Allen, and F Graham. Thats right F Graham, whose can bang it inside and outside where he is shooting 53.8% from 3pt land.

This Ok St team is simply HOT HOT HOT. Combined Offensively, they are the Nations best shooting team from the field, hitting 51% of their shots. Ok St also has won their last 21 of 22 games SU, and their recent 9 game win streak has seen them post a 6-3 ATS record in this span. This is also a veteran team who plays with 4 starting SR's, with only Lucas being a JR. St Joes plays with just two SR starters. Another advantage Offensively is that Ok St has 4 players who average scoring in the DDs, two being Guards and the other two are Forwards. Now that is very good balanced scoring. St Joes, on the other hand, has just two players who average DDs scoring, and it comes from, who else, G's Nelson and West.

On the Deffensive end, the edge has to go with Ok St. This Cowboy Deffensive is simply playing very solid. In fact, in the Tournament so far, they are holding teams to just over 53pts, and 30% from 3pt land. In their last game vs Pitt, Ok St held them to ONLY 17.6% shooting from behind the ARC. Knowing that the only way this ST Joes team can beat them or even out this game is with its ability to hit the 3pt shots, I have to see Coach Sutton and his determination to make his players play solid tough defense, will make necessary adjustments like he did against Pitt taking away their ability to stay in the game with the 3 pointers. St Joes dependance on their 3pt shooting, especially against teams who dominate them inside, will be taken away from them, forcing them to come inside where Ok St will be waiting and have the decided advantage on the boards.

Here are some comparisons based on both teams last 5 games. Ok St last 5 games, has seen an increase in their scoring average to 75 ppg, their shooting percentage to 53.4%(51.7%) from the field, and in rpg at 35, while holding opponents to just 62ppg(67.1), 40.4%(41.1%) shooting from the field, and only allowing 30.6(30.8) rpg.

St Joes in their last 5 games has seen their scoring average drop to 71.6 ppg(77.7), their shooting percentage drop to 41%(47.7%). The defensive play has also slipped during this span, as they allow opponents to average 64 ppg(61.7), 44.6%(39.7%) shooting from the field, and grab 38.4 rpg(36.5).

Ok also 3-0 ATS vs Good Offensive teams scoring 77+ pts per game. Ok St also currently 5-1 ATS when playing on one or less days rest. St Joes currently ONLY 1-5 ATS vs teams with winning records after 15 or more games. They are also 0-1 ATS when playing on one or less days rest this season.

Ok St is the better side here today in my opinion, because they are better or just as good a shooting team as this St Joes squad. Plus, it will be their Offensive balance of INSIDE and OUTSIDE play which always gives one team a decided advantage over another. But it is as well their balance of OFFENSIVE and DEFENSIVE play that provides the biggest advantage over ST Joes. St Joes took out TT and WF, but Ok St is to me in a class above them right now. Their Senior leadership and their veteran Coach in Sutton, also hold another decided advantage over St Joes today. Their bench is as well more talented and runs deep. This game will not be a scoring fest like the Wake game, as I see the better defensive play to be the decided advantage. Ok St is averaging 77.4 ppg and St Joes allowed WF to put up 80 pts on them. But WF allowed its opponents to score an average of 75+ ppg on them, Ok St does not. Hell, I think thats enough SHIT backing my selection on Ok ST. GL to All, and HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!

NOTE:When I looked at the games St Joes played against TT, and WF. One of the main reasons why I decided to go against St Joes, was due to the fact that they are weak in the paint. Now TT exposed this like I mentioned only losing by 5pts. Then came WF who as well had an advantage in the paint. Well, they followed what TT did and found success down low, but they only lost by 4pts. Now St Joes plays a much better team, but similar in the fact that Ok St as well will have an advantage in the Paint against them. What I see is St Joes fortunes running out as each game they are facing better and more balanced teams who already have the floor plans to take advantage of their weakness. The time is up on them here.

Now, when I looked at the Ok St game vs Pitt, eventhough I had Pitt due to that dominating def which won them more games in the Nation, and the Big East. I felt that this Pitt defense is so solid, which they were, ranking 3rd in the land in Scoring def, that they would be able to contain this Ok St Offense and maybe win it in the end in a close one. What I found as a result of this game, was how unstoppable this Ok St team is because they are solid on both ends of the floor. Their Off in this game showed me alot, as they were held by this Pitt defense to just approx 30% shooting from the field in the first half. I was set it was over, but Ok St not only overcame this Defense, they dominated this defense in the second half making an AMAZING 64% of its shots. Now only good teams are able to just simply let their game come to them over the course of the game. When this happens, it shows how the team is simply clicking and in the grove so to speak, and that is what makes them that much more unstoppable. Watch out about getting to caught up in the first half of the Pitt game, and getting stuck on the fact that the Pitt game Ok St look like they were struggling. Pitt's wins ugly and their defense is so solid that they are able to change the complexity and style of any game and any team. So it says alot about a team who is able to overcome this and still win in convincing fashion, which Ok St did and is doing. Look for teams who are not struggling to win. St Joes to me has struggled in their last two, and they will struggle again. Sometimes when a snow ball is already in motion and rolling, it is impossible to stop, and Ok St is ROLLING!


.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 27, 2004 at 09:10 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

**TOP 6 UNIT PLAY ON:


UCONN -8 (buy .5pt)(BLOWOUT WINNER-by 16pts)

-Simple reasoning. UCONN rolling, rolling along. You know I had Kentucky pegged to win it all before the Tourney started, but after I saw how UCONN beat Pitt on a neutral court w/ a hurt Okafer, I was sold. It was then that I jumped all over UCONN for the National Title, and I am glad that I did. This team since then has simply been SPANKING EVERYTHING in SIGHT!

UCONN simply looks like and is playing like a team that is in the ZONE right now. When teams hit this ZONE, everything comes so simple, natural, and easy to them. They are playing solid all game long. Bama has been in some battles and really isnt dominating anyone. They seem to just get HOT at the right time and goes on a run. Problem is, UCONN is HOT ALL THE TIME. UCONN should beat this Bama team by big DDs. Possible BLOWOUT CITY BABY! Shit enough said!

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 27, 2004 at 06:54 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

gg

 

[cashflowmatters]

So Capt, what are the plays?? Hey remember the golden rule " don't drink and drive ya might hit a bump and spill your drink" No one wins every week capt so keep plugging we all here know how good you are, thanks CASH

 

[Co-Captain]

Cash, I am working as hard as I can. I agree, dont drink and drive. Smoke and Fly.

Thanks for your kind words and confidence in me. I hope to end strong for All. GL and Aloha CC.

Now, I need to get back to business.

 

[fivedoorsdown]

dont make ok st your play.
this will go up in smoke

 

[Co-Captain]

TO LATE FIVE, BUT PLEASE STATE YOUR CASE, FOR ST JOES. I'D LIKE TO HEAR IT. ALOHA CC.

 

[nytewalker]

CC
i will be away from computer for few hours and wanted to lay my bets.....i see you are on OSU...are you on uconn or bama??....dont need a write up now just wanted your side if you are able......thanks nyte

 

[jcambert]

Careful with Okie State today. Line is already up to 3.5 with a HUGE public consensus on them. St. Joes wins this game outright today. Tread very, very carefully.

JP

 

[pops69]

co-cap you have been around long enough to know that the lines are very very good at this time of the year. but when you see stupid shit like uab o/u being bet down 6 points and tex up 1- and duke down 1- you know that stupid people are doing stupid things. the line on okla st is already at 3 and will prob be well over that by game time. if i can get a point and 1/2 or more advantage at this time i'll take it every time. you also saw in the POD's the when the majority of the cappers (even the good ones) were on one side that side lost. no team cant lose, so take the advantage the public gives you and run with the ball. these games are crap shoots so take every angle you can get. good luck

 

[spreadbeater]

Co Cap,
I 100% agree with you on Oklahoma State. They are extremly hot and have won all three tournamnet games by DD's. They beat a very tough defensive minded Pitt team, that made Ok. State look like they couldn't shoot a lick, by DD's which really impressed me. St. Joe's lives and dies with the 3, and I think they will die today. This time of the year is when defense really wins games and moves teams to the next round, and I would say, with out a doubt, that Oklahoma state is the better defensive team here. Also, Oklahoma State has a hall of fame caoch and senior leadership. Add that to the fact that Oklahoma State should have absolutely no problem winning the battle of the boards and dominating the paint, I feel that this game could be a DD cover by Oklahoma State. Especially if St. Blows isnt hitting their 3's at the rate they have in the past. Nice season by St. Blows, but it ends today. Good luck to us Co-Cap as I have had this game circled in my head from the time the brackets were released. Good luck and Aloha my friend!

 

[jcambert]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by pops69:
co-cap you have been around long enough to know that the lines are very very good at this time of the year. but when you see stupid shit like uab o/u being bet down 6 points and tex up 1- and duke down 1- you know that stupid people are doing stupid things. the line on okla st is already at 3 and will prob be well over that by game time. if i can get a point and 1/2 or more advantage at this time i'll take it every time. you also saw in the POD's the when the majority of the cappers (even the good ones) were on one side that side lost. no team cant lose, so take the advantage the public gives you and run with the ball. these games are crap shoots so take every angle you can get. good luck<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Pops, I couldn't possibly have said it better myself.

JP

 

[Co-Captain]

nyte, email me.


jcambert, You should know me by now. I dont follow the public or sharps I just cap out what I feel is the right side. I have never gone by what any consensus says. That kind of stuff to me is just something that doesnt give me confidence at all. Plus, didnt you tell me the other day about being careful on the UCONN game, because of the same reasons. Ok ST, I feel its the right side. I have put together page after page giving them the advantage in this one, but I am cutting it down for the writeups. Plus, I got it for -2 already so I am not affected by this line movement, I am set. GL and Aloha CC.

 

[jcambert]

Huh? You have me confused with someone else. I didn't tell you to be carefull with Uconn at all. Please find the post. I can guarantee it was someone else. I figured you wouldn't care. That's cool. You have won your fair share of games. I just thought I would try.

JP

 

[spreadbeater]

Co Cap,
Dont worry about what the public is doing or what "so called professional gamblers" like JP are saying, we have the right side here. You can read what I wrote in your thread a little earlier for the reasons why I think St. Blows loses today. We have the right side here. Bottom Line. Ok state by 6-10.

 

[jcambert]

By the way, Co Cap and Spread Beater. Whenver there is a big consensus on one side of a college hoops game, according to Wagerline, the record is something like 25-2 over the last 27, fading it. Just thought I would throw that out there. Please tread carefully. I would not make this a 7 unit play, Co Capt. Just trying to help you out..that's all.

JP

 

[spreadbeater]

JP,
Make that 25-3 after today.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Whoever you pick, whether you are on my side or against me, I give much respect to co-captain and other solid cappers that give us reasoning and opinions, and when they disagree do so respectfully and with compelling arguments.

Much love to my fellow Rxers. Stay above the fray, and keep on keeping on.

 

[nytewalker]

CC......u got mail....thanks

nyte