Gambling question

[Doug]

Skimmed it quick ! you can't really F this up unless you overbet

CRUSH,KILL,DESTROY !

 

[Iceman]

Thanks for all the great answers. have bet betting my normal max with him (300-400). Actually hope I lose a few times to him. Even though guys like fezzik have told me to just bet the weak number he throws out there I know that is pure gambling and I don't have the stomach for that right now. I think that the best spot would be to just take the oppurtunity pinny offers on their first line posted (middle or scalp), I guess that way would be best.

 

[Iceman]

So when you say don't sell points, you're saying not " to pay more juice". So is this okay Chicago +6 +108 at pinny (first line shown) now drop down to Chicago+7 +118 (juice went up) if local has Toronto -7 -110 (increasing scalp). What do you think your win pct would be straight up versus his weak line, if the line was 2 points off? 55%?

 

[cincy_]

So when you say don't sell points, you're saying not " to pay more juice". So is this okay Chicago +6 +108 at pinny (first line shown) now drop down to Chicago+7 +118 (juice went up) if local has Toronto -7 -110 (increasing scalp). What do you think your win pct would be straight up versus his weak line, if the line was 2 points off? 55%?

More.

Just look at the ML for a 2 point favorite vs. a 4 point favorite

Also, points are more valuable in hoops. You will see the ML increase higher for a 1 point swing in hoops that you will in football.

Also, there is a reason that a 6 point football teaser is equivalent to a 4 point hoops teaser.

 

[Iceman]

My example is backwards (trying to get the hang of this and still going VERY SLOW, all i ever did was bet one side till I came across this goldmine and don't want to leave no stone unturned) should read Chicago +7 +108 or Chicago +6 +118 Versus Toronto -6 -110(local). Sorry I think eveyone understands where I am going with this. I imagine getting +6 from +7 is okay because I'm not paying for it.

 

[Woody0]

Woody, Let me get this straight. You're saying if the lines I am being dealt are Indy -5 -110 versus Chicago +5 +122 or +7.5 -110, I should maybe go with a Indy -5 -110 versus Chicago +6.5 +112 (if this was available), locking in a small scalp and havin a shot for one middle. Everyone that I have spoke to seem to think that just betting the weak line( which is gambling) will eventually lead to pounding the book, but I wonder how many bets will have to be made to assure this.

The no risk method I was thinking about.

Scalp: Indy -5 -110, bet $220 to return $420. Chicago +5 +122 (at Pinny), bet $189.19 to return $420. Scalp wins $10.81

Middle: Indy -5 -110, bet $110 to return $210. Chicago +7.5 -110, bet $110 to return $210. Middle if not made loses $10 paid for from winnings on scalp.

 

[Woody0]

I'm just saying their has to be a "right answer" with the numbers proving it. Espiciallay with the middles. No one seems to know the math with this (middles)

There is no single right answer but there is some excellent advice in this thread including Cincy's outline of numerous options.

I used a worked example to illustrate what I meant by a "free middle". We do know the math but there is no single correct action.

What you chose depends upon your style, risk aversion, bankroll, and tolerance for variance.

Insiders echoed my initial comment "Since you have this opportunity you should cultivate your local rather than bury him."