While most major media polls show a back-and-forth U.S. Presidential race with swings coming on the release of news events, primary results and now the conventions, it has to be considered that the results of those polls are skewed since online gambling sites show Barack Obama to be -200 favorite over John McCain.
The vigorish is often large in this type of wager, so McCain is not likely a 2-1 underdog, but certainly no less than a 1.5-1 to 1.65-1 choice to win the election in November, according to bookmakers. Those odds are a far cry from the margins given in media polls. In fact, the Democrats have been favored for quite awhile now, even before the primary season began.
Given that the late August polls ranged just a 4-5 percentage point spread, with some polls even showing McCain ahead, this would have to be considered a huge overlay if the polls were accurate. After the DNC meeting, Obama has surged in all polls, but history shows that the margin should again close after the RNC convention this week.
Gambling odds are not likely to get the respect from the mainstream media due to their controversial nature in the United States, but it should not be overlooked that the odds to win the office are a true gambling market and should actually be more accurate than any poll taken by any organization.
Given the current odds on the Presidential race and the fact that elections are not a sporting events where luck, such as turnovers or blown officials calls, can occur, it would seem a certainty that Barack Obama will be elected president.
The vigorish is often large in this type of wager, so McCain is not likely a 2-1 underdog, but certainly no less than a 1.5-1 to 1.65-1 choice to win the election in November, according to bookmakers. Those odds are a far cry from the margins given in media polls. In fact, the Democrats have been favored for quite awhile now, even before the primary season began.
Given that the late August polls ranged just a 4-5 percentage point spread, with some polls even showing McCain ahead, this would have to be considered a huge overlay if the polls were accurate. After the DNC meeting, Obama has surged in all polls, but history shows that the margin should again close after the RNC convention this week.
Gambling odds are not likely to get the respect from the mainstream media due to their controversial nature in the United States, but it should not be overlooked that the odds to win the office are a true gambling market and should actually be more accurate than any poll taken by any organization.
Given the current odds on the Presidential race and the fact that elections are not a sporting events where luck, such as turnovers or blown officials calls, can occur, it would seem a certainty that Barack Obama will be elected president.
