Gambling is easy.....if you have money

[wheredatreezat]

Something to think about. NO LOSS system, just need a big bankroll just in case you lose too many in a row.

Lets say we want to win 100 dollars. Continue to bet the same team game in and game out and you will win.

Game 1...100 on Team A
Result...Team A loses - -110
Game 2...210 on Team A
Result....Team A loses - -220 (-330 total)
Game 3...430 on Team A
Result...Team A loses - -474 (-814 total)
Game 4...914 on Team A
Result Team A wins...Net Profit is 100

As you can see, it may get ugly if your team doesn't cover the spread for 10 games, however if you have the bankroll to start, you can NEVER lose this way..You can go 1 and 9 ATS and still be up 100.

No trends, analysis, stats, intuition or anything needed....Just a bankroll

Thoughts please

 

[giorg0s]

What if you lose 10 straight?

 

[wheredatreezat]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Something to think about. NO LOSS system, just need a big bankroll just in case you lose too many in a row.

Should have probably said BIG as opposed to big...stick with the top tier teams and it is unlikely they will lose 10 straight against the spread.

 

[ATX]

oh yeah they will

 

[SoundofSilence]

It's called the Martingale method and its been shown countless times not to be applicable to sports gambling.

Why? Limited bankroll and limits.

A 7-game losing streak happens all the time in sports -- even to the good teams and ESPECIALLY against the spread... So lets see:

First bet: $100 -- LOSS
Second bet: $200 -- LOSS
Third bet: $400 -- LOSS
Fourth bet: $800 -- LOSS
Fifth bet: $1600 -- LOSS
Sixth bet: $3200 -- LOSS
Seventh bet: $6400 -- LOSS
Eighth bet: $12800

At this point, any loss puts you in serious jeopardy of hitting the limit at a sportsbook on a certain type of wager... But even assuming it doesn't, you've risked $25,500 effectively on ONE GAME!

So, simply put -- is it worth a meager $100 profit on a situation that it wouldn't be that uncommon to be put in a spot where you had around $25,000 out on the table one one team?

 

[GLJJNOVA]

This is a different type of chasing. Chasing will catch up with you in the long run. Streaks happen all the time even to good teams. The risks won't be worth of the reward after losing a few in a row.
I prefer to cap my own games, shoot for 56% and grind it out. Gambling is not easy even for the pros. You could make more $$$ setting up a big poker game and cutting the pot, than by doing this. Then you wouldn't be gambling though.
If you decide to try this anyway, best wishes.

GP

 

[wheredatreezat]

Thanks, appreciate the comments....don't think I will be working on this as I don't have the bankroll for it....was just a thought

 

[tatehill2000]

You need to ask yourself,,, what happens if you went to wagerline,,, and played that method according to their number 1 pick???? does anyone know the longest loseing streak of the consensus picks????

could be an interesting angle,,,,
Tater

 

[MrTanaka]

I can show you several examples of teams going on 10+ ATS losses.

Just off the top of my head, the Indianapolis Colts in 2002 (maybe it was 2001) went on a 0-10 ATS run. Last year on totals, the Indiana Pacers had 13 consecutive unders. I've seen an 18-game ATS streak. It is VERY possible. If you want to prove this to yourself, get a random number generator program. Have it churn out 100,000 random 1's & 2's and then search for how many times 10+ 1's or 2's occur. You'll be surprised.

Yeah, the martinagle will theoratically work if you have a BILLION dollars to wager (to win $100) and can find a book willing to take a billion dollar wager.

 

[tatehill2000]

Mr. Tanaka,,,, I dont think he was implying betting ON 1 TEAM only,,,, he was theorizing the use of the Martingale system on any team,,,
I wouldnt advise that techniqe,,, but if you could ENSURE a situation where you wouldnt EVER lose more than 4 games ina row,,, or used that as a stop loss,,, then,,, you might have something,,,
Tater,,

 

[ATX]

it's not possible NOT to lose 4 in a row.

not even at 95% winning percentage.

the more games you bet, the more possible it is to lose 20 in a row. it will happen eventually, it's just a question of when and if you wager on enough events to see it happen.

I'm not sure if I've lost more than 10 in a row, but I have had extreme short term losing streaks. I had maybe 3 or 4 losing weeks last year in baseball, but during one stretch I lost more than 21 out of 24 on dogs. not counting alt rl's. I cleaned up on the year, and while I was lucky that none of the wagers were more than .3 or .4% of BR it was still a reality check. You dont have to be prepared for winning streaks, you do have to be prepared for losing streaks. This is not about winning today or tomorrow or next week. This is a market, and only those who focus on long term profit will see any profit at all. You also have to deal with the psychological effects. After you get down over half your bankroll how does that affect you? Will you panic or chase? Will you be seeing clearly? At that point, obviously what you were doing wasnt working so how do you expect to get it back? Do you change strategy to the opposite? Only to have the strategy 'work' as soon as you switch? I have won more than 10 in a row once, and almost the same, two or three other times in the last three weeks. This isnt typical, and neither is a losing streak of the same. The winning streaks are nice. The losing streaks are not, and that is what you have to be prepared for. This isnt a hard market to beat, you only have to have a small advantage. But you have to be prepared for the crashes, otherwise you wont have any money to apply to any advantage that you might have. And the better the winning streak, the more likely a losing streak is coming in the short term. People can argue convincingly with statistics to the contrary but more often than not when someone hits above 65%...

of course the volume is very relevant to this as is the value of events. each event has a different probability of winning or losing against the spread. which is why you cannot compare sporting events to coin flips. because the value of each event differs, a win % can also differ accordingly. Sometimes there are a long string of games in which the numbers are way off so the win % goes way up. this is b/c of matchups and failure of the oddsmaker to adjust quick enough to team regresssion, and b/c the money goes to the wrong side etc. i guess what I'm trying to say is that some events have a 70% chance of hitting, yes 70%, not many but true, and others really are almost dead even 50%. by taking any event that you feel has a greater value than what is offered by the price, a combination of number and vig, and applying that over as many games as possible...that is the goal. or at least mine. good luck and dont try to get rich quick or at least dont spend money you dont have in that attempt.

 

[tatehill2000]

Great Post,,

tater

 

[wheredatreezat]

Nice explanation...no such thing as get rich quick, in fact it's quite the opposite...i was just curious about this system and what other downfalls are there except the obvious which would be wagering a huge amount of money to win a significantly smaller amount.

Thanks all!

 

[Moon88]

actually this system is called the chasing system!

 

[ATX]

IT IS GREAT TO BE CURIOUS!!

I'm so glad that you have an open mind!!

keep it open, work hard at this, grade plays, and over time you might just develop a consistent edge!!

the most important thing is money management, especially at first. if you lose your entire bankroll, no matter the size, that takes you out of the game. not only will you have no money to bet, the vast majority of people will lose interest and not watch lines and results at that point. so not only are you not making money, you are not learning or gaining experience either. death.

treat this as an investment, figure out a long term strategy. days do not matter, if they do, then your money mgmnt is faulty. weeks are somewhat significant, once you have an edge, then losing weeks are fewer than winning ones at volume. months are the real barometer. yes, you will have losing months, just as the books. but if you get to the point where you place 200 bets or more per month, and if you have an advantage, then this volume will illustrate the edge more often than not. if you have a losing month, so be it (at this point). the key is to isolate the reasons why. bad beats? bunch of favorites? less than 2 pt losses? on the majority of games I know whether or not I had the right side whether or not it wins. if I had the wrong side I try to isolate where my opinion was wrong. for instance: last night I lost on NO +5, MIA +5.5 1st, CLE +3.5 I would have taken all 3 all over again. NO is just in a funk, I figured they would snap out of it vs a Dal team that is not stellar on the road and plays no defense. didnt happen lost by 4. MIA +5.5 was an angle that I will use over time. NJ was just too 'hot' and it lost by 1.5. CLE I had at pick to -2, and it landed on pick. Unfortunately there is this ridiculous subset called overtime, and I lose well over 56% of OT games and having won the MIA/DET game even with OT I knew the outcome even with 42 seconds left in regulation before OT another 1.5 loss that would have hit had OT (which is not easily forecast) not have happened. Just one of those intuition things, and would I take all 3 again? yes. So I check myself, am I seeing clearly? yes, very. very few mistakes in the last few weeks. now looking at the winners from last night, were they right sides or benefit from close calls or luck etc? no. I look at how far the margin of victory ATS was. TOR over? not even close. LAC +7? SU with the nice ML. HOU -5? not close. the two 2nd half totals? TOR 4th under not as close as it landed but 2nd halves are generally dicey to begin with. CLE over? closer than it appears b/c of OT, but had it ended in 4, still a lot farther off than a lot of 2nd halves that I will win, obvious right side.

so were the total number of points that I won ATS by more than what I lost by, and per game? that is one of the things that I look at AFTER the game is over. A win is not a win.

 

[ATX]

one other thing:

I am not one of 'those guys' that thinks they knowitall. I prefer the underdog role. I have been called fullofchit, ignorant, insane, crazy, loser, 40%er, etc. That is just fine with me. I am confident but, not overly. My perception is in aiming to take advantage of the millions of dollars that are over-confident. Team A cant lose this one, the line is a gift, etc. The people that have won in the past often get over-confident and fail to adapt. Past performance does not really mean much at all. I'm a realist, and just b/c I happened to win in the past does not mean that will continue. My idea is this: I dont place ANY wagers that I expect to lose. So there is always room for constant improvement. For this reason I use a multi-faceted approach. I not only look at numbers, but I also look at the market as a whole and regression applied to human performance applied to athletes in a team concept. This applies more to professional athletes than at the college level, there is more parity at the highest level. These are just my opinions. I always suggest that one should formuate their own opinion, use multiple ideas to see what works for you. That way I can learn from YOU!!

 

[SINGURU]

A LA LAWRENCE OLIVIER TO DUSTIN HOFFMAN:

'MY DEAR BOY, YOU SHOULD TRY ACTING !";

INSTEAD OF GAMBLING, YOU SHOULD TRY

HANDICAPPING...

 

[ATX]

aptly put

I dont consider this gambling at all.

I consider this investing.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

MARTINGALE SYSTEM...my friend tried that in blackjack once, was great for a while then he lost it all

 

[ClayHenry]

Iowa hawkeyes in 2001 NCAA lost 19 ATS in a row.