Thursday Oct 21st.
Denver VS Cleveland.
The whole world knows Baker is out according to reports. Cleveland has both Running backs listed out as well. Keenum is the starter for Cleveland.
This is the "Time Of The Season"(Zombies) to separate games played against winners and losers and evaluate those outcomes.
This game is a perfect example, because both teams have fallen recently.
These are some of the many things I look at when capping if I have time. So here goes.
Public perception is moving the line because of the injuries to Cleveland. Another reason may be that Denver has won 12 of the last 13 SU against the Browns. Nuff said about all that.
Early line posted was Browns -6. which was posted on Sunday Night at roughly 7 PM. This was AFTER the Browns were blown out by Arizona.
My point here is that Odds Makers already knew the Browns had no running game when they posted that line. Day by day the line dropped. Bakers was ruled out on Wednesday. The line is now 1.5 and will likely settle at -1.
There are two ways to assume line-movement after it is posted. No matter what the reasons are injuries etc., the movement is caused by betting action day-by-day or its moved because the original line was intentionally wrong and way off with intent.
Intent is done with already knowing what the reaction is going to be BEFORE the line is posted. Its done purposely with the advanced knowledge of the Public Betting Habits that establish nearly every line posted.
In this game it was intentional.
WHY? Because if there was no injuries - Cleveland would be at least a 10 point favorite and would cover that number. Here is why Im making that statement.
Cleveland was healthy for about 3 games on both sides of the ball. The defense had 2 games at full strength with starters. The offense had 3 games with the O-line in-tack and both Running Backs healthy at the same time.
Here we are now with all kinds of injuries. Denver is also hurting, but no one is paying attention. Bridgewater is playing with a bad ankle, that likely has caused him to throw Int's last week.
The Denver Defense has lost its 2 top linebackers. Offensively they aren't setting the world on firs on offense at all. They haven't all year. They're a 20 point offense at best, with their starters playing. Denver defense is NOT an 18pt per game defense at all. And now with major losses on defense - they would be lucky to hold any team to 27 or less.
Cleveland when healthy is a 30 point offense or more. Against a bad defensive team, they would be easily a 35-42 point offense. Now with injuries the odds say - they may only out score Denver by 1 point. That means that the public is thinking a close game - maybe 21-20 or less, based on a 1 point line.
Finally, if we had just ONE team that was at full strength, then any line posted would likely be more accurate. With two teams full of injuries that makes the TRUE odds exactly the same as if they were both healthy.
So if that was the case for this game -Cleveland would be favored by 8-10 and many would be drawn to Denver. They are still going with Denver, if you believe that the line dropping, is evidence of that. Some other posters here assume that to be the case.
What ever losses there are on the Denver defense, means that the Browns should be able to score near their average, because adequate replacement with Keenum reduces the challenge for him knowing he will have time that he wouldn't have if that Defense was at full strength. The same can be said for Bridgewater as well.
But if Cleveland has Clowny and Garrett back along with one starting DB, the Browns defense should play close to the true capacity for this game on a short week.
Advantage on both sides of the ball are still in favor of Cleveland, But the public doesnt think so, and thats why the Line has dropped.
Denver has scored over 20 points against teams that had no offense and no defense. They never reached that scoring level in the other games. For this game they are depleted which wont help them reach 20 again.
Cleveland and Keenum can still hit at least 28 points on a broken Denver defense that has little to defend with on a short week.
Play. Browns -ML -125.
Denver VS Cleveland.
The whole world knows Baker is out according to reports. Cleveland has both Running backs listed out as well. Keenum is the starter for Cleveland.
This is the "Time Of The Season"(Zombies) to separate games played against winners and losers and evaluate those outcomes.
This game is a perfect example, because both teams have fallen recently.
These are some of the many things I look at when capping if I have time. So here goes.
Public perception is moving the line because of the injuries to Cleveland. Another reason may be that Denver has won 12 of the last 13 SU against the Browns. Nuff said about all that.
Early line posted was Browns -6. which was posted on Sunday Night at roughly 7 PM. This was AFTER the Browns were blown out by Arizona.
My point here is that Odds Makers already knew the Browns had no running game when they posted that line. Day by day the line dropped. Bakers was ruled out on Wednesday. The line is now 1.5 and will likely settle at -1.
There are two ways to assume line-movement after it is posted. No matter what the reasons are injuries etc., the movement is caused by betting action day-by-day or its moved because the original line was intentionally wrong and way off with intent.
Intent is done with already knowing what the reaction is going to be BEFORE the line is posted. Its done purposely with the advanced knowledge of the Public Betting Habits that establish nearly every line posted.
In this game it was intentional.
WHY? Because if there was no injuries - Cleveland would be at least a 10 point favorite and would cover that number. Here is why Im making that statement.
Cleveland was healthy for about 3 games on both sides of the ball. The defense had 2 games at full strength with starters. The offense had 3 games with the O-line in-tack and both Running Backs healthy at the same time.
Here we are now with all kinds of injuries. Denver is also hurting, but no one is paying attention. Bridgewater is playing with a bad ankle, that likely has caused him to throw Int's last week.
The Denver Defense has lost its 2 top linebackers. Offensively they aren't setting the world on firs on offense at all. They haven't all year. They're a 20 point offense at best, with their starters playing. Denver defense is NOT an 18pt per game defense at all. And now with major losses on defense - they would be lucky to hold any team to 27 or less.
Cleveland when healthy is a 30 point offense or more. Against a bad defensive team, they would be easily a 35-42 point offense. Now with injuries the odds say - they may only out score Denver by 1 point. That means that the public is thinking a close game - maybe 21-20 or less, based on a 1 point line.
Finally, if we had just ONE team that was at full strength, then any line posted would likely be more accurate. With two teams full of injuries that makes the TRUE odds exactly the same as if they were both healthy.
So if that was the case for this game -Cleveland would be favored by 8-10 and many would be drawn to Denver. They are still going with Denver, if you believe that the line dropping, is evidence of that. Some other posters here assume that to be the case.
What ever losses there are on the Denver defense, means that the Browns should be able to score near their average, because adequate replacement with Keenum reduces the challenge for him knowing he will have time that he wouldn't have if that Defense was at full strength. The same can be said for Bridgewater as well.
But if Cleveland has Clowny and Garrett back along with one starting DB, the Browns defense should play close to the true capacity for this game on a short week.
Advantage on both sides of the ball are still in favor of Cleveland, But the public doesnt think so, and thats why the Line has dropped.
Denver has scored over 20 points against teams that had no offense and no defense. They never reached that scoring level in the other games. For this game they are depleted which wont help them reach 20 again.
Cleveland and Keenum can still hit at least 28 points on a broken Denver defense that has little to defend with on a short week.
Play. Browns -ML -125.