Opening line PHI +1.
Current line PHI -1.5. (Tuesday Jan 31st)
Cross over in the numbers already.
Will be interesting to see what happens once injury updates are posted.
Update: Feb. 2nd. Lines posted here at RX Odds Page
My Plays.
Chiefs +2 (SBK) over Eagles. 25 units
Under 52 (-109) (SBK). 10 Units
Lots of respect for both teams here, but one faced underachievers to get here.
I'm going with KC - and against Philly.
Capping factors statistically favor Eagles on the surface, but they faced a SF team that was over rated IMO and it was revealed in the Dallas game.
Philly also had two opponents that were or became easy pushovers.
Cowboys beat themselves in SF.
Dak. "int" Prescott was the reason Dallas lost. The SF defense gets al the credit for winning that game but not the SF offense.
In the KC/Cincy game, the teams played up to their recent defensive numbers which mean a lot at the end of the year..
They each held the opponent to below season averages on offense.
Last week I ranked KC and Cincy above the 9'ers and the Eagles, based on the last 5 games they played. But - Not on the fantastic "season averages" that put them up in the top rankings.
My thread from last week - Titled -"Who has the better defense right now?"
Here are my rankings from my post last week:
Complied from the last 5 games from each team.
,Points allowed.
Bengals 16.8 (Bengals played 2 of 5 at home.
Chiefs 18.2 (Played 3 of 5 at home.
Eagles. 20.6 (played 3 of 5 at home.
SF. 20.6 (Played 4 of last 5 at home.
The KC game last week was as good as it gets.
Each team could have won.
Knowing they didnt have a big advantage, by one team losing a 'Starting QB" early in th game, gives a solid read on who's coming to the Big Dance on Super Bowl Sunday.
Philly was solid on defense, but not facing a real QB was very revealing about who I think they are now.
I like Hurts a lot, but in that game when the competition (SF) was far better than the Giants - we should have seen a lot better from Philly than what they showed against a team with no QB.
Being at HOME they were somewhat pathetic.
If considering what they did on offense was important, then there is no way to back them now against KC.
The time of possession was all Philly. 37-22 minutes.
offensively Philly underachieved badly.
Passing 121.
Rushing 148. Most rushing yards were with the lead to run the clock.
SF had ONLY 11 first downs.
Passing 83 yds
Rushing 81 yds
No QB = means no yardage. The score was real, but not the offensive performance by Philly to match it.
Thats important now for the SB game.
Facing either KC or Cincy would not matter here. Both teams are good enough to beat Philly.
The Eagles hit a near season LOW on offense for the year, That should NEVER happen when the opponent never has the ball and is playing with zero offense.
Based on the last 5 games before last week, KC has the better defense. Now with the recent performance on the Philly offense, KC has the better offense right now. Philly caught two teams with little to offer.
Im not using the SF game to consider the defensive play by Philly. Without at starting QB for SF, the Defensive numbers are misleading.
The season defensive averages for points allowed are nearly identical for KC and Philly. (21 pts per game) Not something many would notice when seeing that Philly rankings were so high all season. But again, we are considering the last 5 previous games as a relative point for the current teams.
Placing my bet today is mainly because I see that Two of the WR's for KC are now "probable", as to when the line came out they were questionable.
Mahomes should be in better condition with 12 days rest.
The line can only go against me if everyone on KC is 100% for the game and if the masses start going to KC as we get closer to he game.
Lastly - Coaching playoff experience may be important here.
Reid has 37 games. Sirianni 3.
Again I repeat, that Philly was very conservative against SF, but since the QB was out they didn't really do much with all that lopsided T.O.P. with 37 minutes of having the ball.
I think Mahomes and Burrow are both better than Hurts as QB's, but Hurts has the better run capability for this game. Hurts has a 4.6 yds average and 13 rushing Td's.
That could be the only issue for the Chiefs?
My Plays are as posted above.
GL
Current line PHI -1.5. (Tuesday Jan 31st)
Cross over in the numbers already.
Will be interesting to see what happens once injury updates are posted.
Update: Feb. 2nd. Lines posted here at RX Odds Page
My Plays.
Chiefs +2 (SBK) over Eagles. 25 units
Under 52 (-109) (SBK). 10 Units
Lots of respect for both teams here, but one faced underachievers to get here.
I'm going with KC - and against Philly.
Capping factors statistically favor Eagles on the surface, but they faced a SF team that was over rated IMO and it was revealed in the Dallas game.
Philly also had two opponents that were or became easy pushovers.
Cowboys beat themselves in SF.
Dak. "int" Prescott was the reason Dallas lost. The SF defense gets al the credit for winning that game but not the SF offense.
In the KC/Cincy game, the teams played up to their recent defensive numbers which mean a lot at the end of the year..
They each held the opponent to below season averages on offense.
Last week I ranked KC and Cincy above the 9'ers and the Eagles, based on the last 5 games they played. But - Not on the fantastic "season averages" that put them up in the top rankings.
My thread from last week - Titled -"Who has the better defense right now?"
Here are my rankings from my post last week:
Complied from the last 5 games from each team.
,Points allowed.
Bengals 16.8 (Bengals played 2 of 5 at home.
Chiefs 18.2 (Played 3 of 5 at home.
Eagles. 20.6 (played 3 of 5 at home.
SF. 20.6 (Played 4 of last 5 at home.
The KC game last week was as good as it gets.
Each team could have won.
Knowing they didnt have a big advantage, by one team losing a 'Starting QB" early in th game, gives a solid read on who's coming to the Big Dance on Super Bowl Sunday.
Philly was solid on defense, but not facing a real QB was very revealing about who I think they are now.
I like Hurts a lot, but in that game when the competition (SF) was far better than the Giants - we should have seen a lot better from Philly than what they showed against a team with no QB.
Being at HOME they were somewhat pathetic.
If considering what they did on offense was important, then there is no way to back them now against KC.
The time of possession was all Philly. 37-22 minutes.
offensively Philly underachieved badly.
Passing 121.
Rushing 148. Most rushing yards were with the lead to run the clock.
SF had ONLY 11 first downs.
Passing 83 yds
Rushing 81 yds
No QB = means no yardage. The score was real, but not the offensive performance by Philly to match it.
Thats important now for the SB game.
Facing either KC or Cincy would not matter here. Both teams are good enough to beat Philly.
The Eagles hit a near season LOW on offense for the year, That should NEVER happen when the opponent never has the ball and is playing with zero offense.
Based on the last 5 games before last week, KC has the better defense. Now with the recent performance on the Philly offense, KC has the better offense right now. Philly caught two teams with little to offer.
Im not using the SF game to consider the defensive play by Philly. Without at starting QB for SF, the Defensive numbers are misleading.
The season defensive averages for points allowed are nearly identical for KC and Philly. (21 pts per game) Not something many would notice when seeing that Philly rankings were so high all season. But again, we are considering the last 5 previous games as a relative point for the current teams.
Placing my bet today is mainly because I see that Two of the WR's for KC are now "probable", as to when the line came out they were questionable.
Mahomes should be in better condition with 12 days rest.
The line can only go against me if everyone on KC is 100% for the game and if the masses start going to KC as we get closer to he game.
Lastly - Coaching playoff experience may be important here.
Reid has 37 games. Sirianni 3.
Again I repeat, that Philly was very conservative against SF, but since the QB was out they didn't really do much with all that lopsided T.O.P. with 37 minutes of having the ball.
I think Mahomes and Burrow are both better than Hurts as QB's, but Hurts has the better run capability for this game. Hurts has a 4.6 yds average and 13 rushing Td's.
That could be the only issue for the Chiefs?
My Plays are as posted above.
GL
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On to the Big Game!!!
