***G-Man's NFL Week 5***

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Atlanta ML -135 over Tampa. 5 units

Falcons struggled with Saints last week but won/ They were out-gained by over 70 yds.

Tampa was dominating over the Eagles and out-gained them by 220 yards. Not a normal outcome for Tampa. They were a negative yds team in the prior 3 games. overall. Important note for that game was that Philly had two top WR's OUT.
In addition, last time Tampa was on the road was in Detroit when they were badly out-yarded, but won in a low scoring 20-16 win. They also capitalized on 2 Lions turnovers.

Falcons have the better defense based on last 4 opponents and when Tampa played a good defense - Denver shut them down to 7 points in TAMPA!
The total in Detroit was 51.5/ Tonight in Atlanta its 44 I expect another low scoring road game from Tampa.
 

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it looks like its mostly Road dogs and Home dogs?
Much like week 2.


Sunday -EARLY 9:30am/
Jets +2 over Vikings. 5 units


No mistake that the Jets have the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL.
They hold opposting QB's to only 128 yds per game. That should stand up here in London - since there is no other significant advantage for Minnesota.

Defensively overall, the Jets are ranked #5 while the Vikings are ranked #4.
The Vikings offense is better by 43 yds per game on offense, while the Jets are better by 105 yds on defense.
Last week Minnesota won off 4 turnovers by GreenBay. The Packers came back and almost won after trailing by 21 points in the first half.
Rodgers is expected to play - but check status before game time that starts @ 9:30 Eastern in the morning.

Miami ML-120 over New England. 5 units.
Miami will have to go with Huntley again, but this time he will produce.
Last week he faced the number #1 pass defense in the NFL who is Tennessee. They are the only team better than the Jets as mentioned above.
Huntley faces the 28th ranked pass defense in the NFL with the pathetic Patriots allowing 255 yards per game passing.
As bad as Miami has been - they are ranked #5 overall in defensive yards allowed Those two factors are why Miami gets the win here.

Carolina +4 over Chicago. 5 units
Panthers faced the two of best offense in the game. Saints#1 and Bengals #5.
The Bears are way behind with the 20th ranked offense.
Chicago got the win over the ranks but were out-gained and capitalized off 2 Rams to's.
Carolina played much better last 2 weeks averaging 30 points/game.
In the Bears Two(2) losses this year they averaged only 15 points per game.

Bengals +2.5 over Ravens. 5 units
Getting better production from Cincy last 2 weeks. They're starting to look like a contender.
Ravens crushed the Bills last week but aren't the defensive team they appear to be.
They're allowing 22 points per game overall.
In road games they are are allowing 26 pts/gm.
While Baltimore is the Number #1 run defense - the Bengals are rushing 4.6 yds per carry and are ranked #6 .


Buffalo +1 over Houston.. 5 units.
Houston is a negative scoring team and should not be favored.
The Bills defensively are ranked 10th - while Houston is #22.
Houston won 3 of 4 but did it against 3 teams at .500 or less. The one loss was against the 4-0 Vikings.
The Bill are Plus 10 in scoring. Wrong team favored.

Colts +3 over Jacksonville. 5 units
Jags favorded at home while allowing 27 points per game is an over priced favorite IMO.
The line as a favorite must be because the played good vs Houston last week and won by 4 points..
Last week the Colts pounded the Steelers top ranked #1 defense for 27 points.
Colts should put up more on the Jags.

Washington Comanches vs Browns. Over 43 (-120) 2 units
No Chubb = no win. The Browns entire offensive line is banged up and been shifted.
If 'Ghetto Watson' has the game of his life - the Browns could pull off an upset. Thats something they re used to doling - getting upset and losing.
The long shot here is that the Redskins defense is worse.
Browns do have better DB's and could keep Damiels down But I doubt it.
Play over 43.5

4PM

NY Giants +7 over Seattle. 3 units

Considering who they played so far - the Giants seem to always play defense.
Holding down Washing, Dallas, Cle and Minnesota to an average of 21 points gives them a shot here for a cover.
Seattle win margin on average is only 5 pts per game. In home games they played Miami without Tago and Denver in game one with a 1st game rookie QB as Denver had 3 turnovers.
The line looks to easy for Seattle fans.


Packers -3 over Rams. 5 units

Rams have no defense - Ranked 31st - and poor offensive numbers and they are a negative scoring team by -10 points.
Expect GB to make up for the 4 turnovers last week in gifting the Vikings a win.

8PM
Dallas +2.5 over Pittsburgh. 5 units.

Pitt has no offense.
 
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Correction ; Jags lost by 4 points last week.
 

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Atlanta ML -135 over Tampa. 5 units.......................W+500
it looks like its mostly Road dogs and Home dogs?
Much like week 2.
Sunday -EARLY 9:30am/
Jets +2 over Vikings. 5 units.........................................L-550

Miami ML-120 over New England. 5 units......................W+500
Carolina +4 over Chicago. 5 units.................................L-550
Panthers faced the two of best offense in the game. Saints#1 and Bengals

Bengals +2.5 over Ravens. 5 units Should Bought the half point>...L-550
Buffalo +1 over Houston.. 5 units. <<Pahtetic.........................L-550
Colts +3 over Jacksonville. 5 units .................................PUSH


Washington Comanches vs Browns. Over 43 (-120) 2 units....W+200
4PM

NY Giants +7 over Seattle. 3 units.....................................W+300

Packers -3 over Rams. 5 units...............................................W+500

8PM
Dallas +2.5 over Pittsburgh. 5 units...............................W+500.

Pitt has no offense.
Week 5. Monday pending
6-4. +300.00
W+2500
-2200.00


Season.27-40-2 . -5170.00.
 

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Monday Nighter!

Saints +5 over KC. 10 units
Under 43. 2 units
ML+200. 2 units


Mahomes has lowest QB rating (89) in last 5 years now. He also has a depleted run game behind him w.injuries.
Chiefs also are scoring lower now than in last 3 years. The 4-0 record isnt the whole story.
Absence of Star receiver Rashee Rice will be exposed tonight.
Chiefs 10 game win streak should end toniight IMO

Look for game like the Atlanta game. Thats why the total is low at 43..
NOTE: Saints held Atlanta to only 14 first downs last week and Falcons had a 37 yd Int return for a TD.


Carr has his career high QB rating at 103.9. and completion percent is 72% !!!

Saints exploded in first 2 weeks averaging 45 points/game but when playing better teams that number drops to 24.
Both defenses are at 18 pts per game.
 

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Monday Nighter!

Saints +5 over KC. 10 units
Under 43. 2 units
ML+200. 2 units


Mahomes has lowest QB rating (89) in last 5 years now. He also has a depleted run game behind him w.injuries.
Chiefs also are scoring lower now than in last 3 years. The 4-0 record isnt the whole story.
Absence of Star receiver Rashee Rice will be exposed tonight.
Chiefs 10 game win streak should end toniight IMO

Look for game like the Atlanta game. Thats why the total is low at 43..
NOTE: Saints held Atlanta to only 14 first downs last week and Falcons had a 37 yd Int return for a TD.


Carr has his career high QB rating at 103.9. and completion percent is 72% !!!

Saints exploded in first 2 weeks averaging 45 points/game but when playing better teams that number drops to 24.
Both defenses are at 18 pts per game.
Why not hit ML? Saints aren’t going 4-1 ATS and losing this game. Either they lose by a TD+ or they win outright.
 

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YES!!! I have NOr +17 on the last leg of my 12pt 4tm tzr for $350.
Good luck to both of us! I 🙂
 

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