****************** G-Man's Divisional Playoffs. Predictions and Write-ups. *******************

[vinnyvegas]

Good points for all readers. Thanks

Valid points all...

Agree Rams could cover and agree Packers should win...QB1 Rams surgery thumb and while he did do enough, more so SeaChickens less, I think we see a diff QB1 performance, not as good but worse with colder elements for 1 and Packers D other. They are a good bunch, not ranked like Rams but Good.

Agree Bills coin flip...hope if I'm Ravens which I like MOST of the 2...coin lands on them...this game certainly has that last drive for WIN feel.

KC did win after bye vs Raiders and if not for a 1H rare INT by Mahomes to end half inside at Raiders 3 yard line...rivalry games like that hard to run away from opponent. KC dominated stat wise and like I said, KC has become everyone's Super Bowl during regular season, so not a shocker many of their games close and though I think KC is clearly superior to most NFL teams, it's still the NFL and any given Sunday, so their separation isn't TDs most of time...it's a big play here or there and like in this game, you give Mahomes ball with time to score to win...he's hard to stop. I don't trust Browns enough yet. Especially vs KC who's seasoned. Browns only formula is to run run run and keep Mahomes off field. KC will load the box to stop run and DBs are more than capable of stopping Baker who tends to gun sling too much and I doubt he changes. I'm not sure what you call it, but the fact that Pitt came back to make last game close vs Browns burying them, tells me something. KC wouldn't have allowed that. 10 is a lot of point to cover, and I see you being 100% on them covering IF Browns stick to game plan but will they or do you trust them if they get down 2 TDs? I do not.

Brady had 381 w/ TD passes of 36 & 27...Brees 265 TD passes of 11 & 6 yards--last weeks games...I'll bank on someone who can actually throw it down the field more than 15 yards. Brees cannot and when does its short or inaccurate, hence the dink and dunk comment. Brady will stretch the DBs...Bucs DBs don't have to worry about that 1 bit QB2 Saints is a threat but I love seeing the hits he's continuing to take and did get dinged w/ face/head plant into turf--waiting for that hit that knocks him out of game and that threat gone. Very true losing Brady and it's game over and pretty much been that way for his 40 year career but how many times has that actually happened in that 40 years....HAHA

Not trying at all to get you off your sides as I think you have solid reasons. The Saints & Bucs are coin flips based on which old dude plays best or stays in game...KC should win but again coin flip on Covering...Ravens coin flip on which QB makes least mistakes...probably why we love this damn game so much and especially during playoffs.

 

[G-Man!]

Valid points all...

Agree Rams could cover and agree Packers should win...QB1 Rams surgery thumb and while he did do enough, more so SeaChickens less, I think we see a diff QB1 performance, not as good but worse with colder elements for 1 and Packers D other. They are a good bunch, not ranked like Rams but Good.

Agree Bills coin flip...hope if I'm Ravens which I like MOST of the 2...coin lands on them...this game certainly has that last drive for WIN feel.

KC did win after bye vs Raiders and if not for a 1H rare INT by Mahomes to end half inside at Raiders 3 yard line...rivalry games like that hard to run away from opponent. KC dominated stat wise and like I said, KC has become everyone's Super Bowl during regular season, so not a shocker many of their games close and though I think KC is clearly superior to most NFL teams, it's still the NFL and any given Sunday, so their separation isn't TDs most of time...it's a big play here or there and like in this game, you give Mahomes ball with time to score to win...he's hard to stop. I don't trust Browns enough yet. Especially vs KC who's seasoned. Browns only formula is to run run run and keep Mahomes off field. KC will load the box to stop run and DBs are more than capable of stopping Baker who tends to gun sling too much and I doubt he changes. I'm not sure what you call it, but the fact that Pitt came back to make last game close vs Browns burying them, tells me something. KC wouldn't have allowed that. 10 is a lot of point to cover, and I see you being 100% on them covering IF Browns stick to game plan but will they or do you trust them if they get down 2 TDs? I do not.

Brady had 381 w/ TD passes of 36 & 27...Brees 265 TD passes of 11 & 6 yards--last weeks games...I'll bank on someone who can actually throw it down the field more than 15 yards. Brees cannot and when does its short or inaccurate, hence the dink and dunk comment. Brady will stretch the DBs...Bucs DBs don't have to worry about that 1 bit QB2 Saints is a threat but I love seeing the hits he's continuing to take and did get dinged w/ face/head plant into turf--waiting for that hit that knocks him out of game and that threat gone. Very true losing Brady and it's game over and pretty much been that way for his 40 year career but how many times has that actually happened in that 40 years....HAHA

Not trying at all to get you off your sides as I think you have solid reasons. The Saints & Bucs are coin flips based on which old dude plays best or stays in game...KC should win but again coin flip on Covering...Ravens coin flip on which QB makes least mistakes...probably why we love this damn game so much and especially during playoffs.

A response to the bolded lines above.
Here is where data can surprise you. First - KC cannot load the box and stop the run. Not on the best running tandem in the NFL. Second, KC held Five(5) of the last Six(6) opponents to under 100 yards rushing. But its so misleading, because they allow 4.7 yards per rush.
Against Denver, the Broncos ran for 179 yards and that alone kept the scoring way down for KC in a 22-16 win at home for the Chiefs. This is all "game plan preparation" and that is why underdogs can surprise in a game like this.

Baker is far better this season with his Slinging ways. His TDs are up and his Ints are way down. Thats what better coaches can do with game plans suited to the offense.

Pitt never really came back. It was the intentional coaching defensive changes to just keep the ball in front of the defense. In nearly all the Browns wins, they do this in every game when leading. They did the exact same thing when they Played Tennessee. They had a 38-7 lead at halftime and allowed it to happen. That one note you mentioned is what will pull everyone to KC, when it is so misleading. Cleveland created every turnover with a severe pass rush that was very disguising and won the game. With Browns DB'S back for this game, Mahomes wont get too comfortable once Myles Garrett & Company start breaking through.. Just ask Pittsburgh...

 

[MikRetSam]

More variables with larger spreads but if you think a team will win, take them to cover. In NFL, when a team wins (it could be dog winning outright) they cover 80%, in the playoffs its 89% when they win, they cover!

Yep. Rams have a pretty good defense. Question is can the QB show up? I think they cover the 7

 

[wizard1183]

More variables with larger spreads but if you think a team will win, take them to cover. In NFL, when a team wins (it could be dog winning outright) they cover 80%, in the playoffs its 89% when they win, they cover!

I knew it was 83%. Didn’t know 89 come playoffs.

 

[MikRetSam]

Just pick the winner! Tricky part if that sometimes dogs win outright.

I knew it was 83%. Didn’t know 89 come playoffs.

 

[wizard1183]

Just pick the winner! Tricky part if that sometimes dogs win outright.

Ok...
Rams
Bills
Chiefs
Saints

 

[MikRetSam]

I hammered GB and Balt.

Ok...
Rams
Bills
Chiefs
Saints

 

[tkim11]

Fyi...i hate everyone on this post. Every time I read someones post, I keep changing my mind. All valid posts

 

[Serbone]

Fyi...i hate everyone on this post. Every time I read someones post, I keep changing my mind. All valid posts

HA but it is good stuff... you hear both sides, if you are on a jury you don't listen to the prosecution, then leave every time the defense speaks, do you?

AND G-Man is a poster who backs up his posts with relevant rationale, unlike most, and he puts it out there early for productive discussion.

Great thread.

GL!

 

[lostinamerica]

Good thread with a good back and forth discussion.

I cherry picked just two opinions with which I am in total disagreement . . . Carry on:

Ram + 7

Brees is . . . more broken than Manning's were at the end of both their runs.

GL

 

[uscmd]

Great stuff G man. Thanks!

I like the rams +7. But I'd love them, if this list was shorter. IMPORTANT INJURIES

KUPP wr, knee, ques
HENDERSON rb, ankle, out. when healthy he was #1, earlier in year. Akers has been dinged, and Brown spotty.
FLOYD lb, concussion, ques
WHITWORTH, T, knee, ques
EDWARDS T, knee, ques
GOFF, qb, thumb, 3 screws....all it would take is one more helmet strike, or landing on it.
WOLFORD qb, stinger, persistent, out.
BORTLES qb, the back up......if Goff can't go. Avery scary thought.

-----------------------------------------

I also like KC +10. Too many points, given 20 days since KC starters have played. 8 wks since they won by 10+

-----------------------------------------

Leans toward NO and Buf. Both too close to call.

bol to all

 

[wizard1183]

Just pick the winner! Tricky part if that sometimes dogs win outright.

If that was the case? Anytime you play a dog? You’d play ML. Of course it’s yield much better results due to the %. However some dogs cover and don’t win. Therefore you lose a bet. Now if you’re playing say 5 dogs via 16game sched (reg season) you’d make up for the loss. But no one really does.

 

[MikRetSam]

When I hear "I like Team A to win but Team B to cover" or "Team A can't win but they will cover", how much confidence do you really have on either side? Statements like this should not warrant a play.

Just pick the winner means, nearly 90% in the playoffs the winning team will cover so don't overthink it. Good luck with your plays.

If that was the case? Anytime you play a dog? You’d play ML. Of course it’s yield much better results due to the %. However some dogs cover and don’t win. Therefore you lose a bet. Now if you’re playing say 5 dogs via 16game sched (reg season) you’d make up for the loss. But no one really does.

 

[lostinamerica]

Last week, of course, Buffalo(-6 or -6' closing line) won 27-24 but did not cover, and Tampa Bay(-10') won 31-23, but did not cover.

GL

 

[G-Man!]

Public percentages and Changes from the early lines this week.

Packers opened @53%. Now at 59%
Bills opened @50%. Now 58%
Browns Opened @ 52%. Now at 61%
Tampa Opened @54%. Now at 50%.

Packers increased 6% against me. (GB line dropped a half point.)
Buffalo Increased 8 % with me. (No Change on Buffalo Line.
Browns increased 9% with me. (No Change on Browns Line.
Saints increased 4% with me. (Saints dropped a half point)

Interesting how the largest percentage moved, did not move the line at all.
While the smaller percentages only moved the line a half point?

GB line moved in the wrong direction? 6% more jumped on them and the line should have gone UP -Not Down.

Saints moved a half point in the right direction but only had a 4% increase.

With an 9% increase, the lines should have moved at least 1 point up on the Browns to 11.But it didnt change!

With an 8% increase the line on Buffalo should have gone up to 3.5 or 4, yet it stayed at 2.5.



FWIW...

 

[mickj]

If Browns % went UP, shouldn't KC be favored LESS?

 

[G-Man!]

If Browns % went UP, shouldn't KC be favored LESS?

yes. Correction. Should have gone down. to 9

 

[G-Man!]

Final Closing percentages last week were against the Spread.

63% on Buffalo. Lost. Colts Covered
60%on Seattle. Lost. Rams covered. (Dog won SU)
55% on Tampa. LOST. Washington Covered.
54% on Tennessee. Lost. Baltimore Covered.
52% On Bears. LOST. Saints Covered
59% on Steelers. LOST. Browns Covered..(Dog won SU)


THIS WEEK>
Closing percentages appear to be different this week now with 2 dogs having the percentages on them. Cleveland and Tampa as of today.
Last week percentages were only on Tennessee.
Tampa Just moved to 51%. Cleveland is 64% today. Browns jumped up another 3% overnight.

 

[SamsonampDalila]

Things sure have changed this season. Losers have become winners and winners have ended up losers.

Ravens reversed the loss against Tennessee earlier in the year and Pittsburgh has fallen to a Browns team they beat for 17 straight years at home.
Tampa has become a winner all because of Tom Brady. The Bills have finally made it back to th payoffs after a 25 year absence.
The Saints are back again and the Pack is back as well.

Big opening lines are typical for home teams in division games. No road team is favored this week. There are 3 dogs with 12 wins on the season through last week. That makes for good discussion and Legitiment concerns.
Last week Baltimore was favored in Tennessee. Tampa was favored in Washington. Now both are dogs respectively.

LA Rams AT Green Bay -7. Saturday 4:30PM. (53% of the public is on the Packers at this posting)
Rams have the top defense this year. They are known for hardly allowing points in the 2nd half of their games. The Rams problem is - who is really their starting QB? Going into Green Bay with that question is significant at this point of the season. Goff was NOT the starter last week because of a broken thumb and surgery just 2 weeks ago. . Wolford was injured and taken out which put Goff in. A warm weather team going into Cheese Land is an advantage for the Packers. The Packers have everything in place and also ahem one of the best offense this year and are averaging 32 points per game. If rams can keep the Packers under 28 points they can cover this. If the Rams can get to Rodgers a few time like they did last week in Seattle, they could win this. The Rams are forcing teams to go more yards per point than anyone else of the NFC play-off teams.
Ram + 7

Baltimore AT Buffalo -2.5. Saturday 8:15 PM. (Public is 50/50% on this game. )
The Ravens look like the better team right now with the tight Buffalo win against the Colts. Baltimore was threatened at the end of the game by the Titans, but prevailed. The Ravens out-gained the Titans by over 192 total yards but it was all from Jackson running the ball. One-dimension teams dont usually win against balanced teams, so this week makes for an interesting game. Buffalo beat Pittsburgh earlier this year while Baltimore lost two times to the Steelers.. One loss for the Bills was to the Titans who just lost to the Ravens. Buffalo had 3 turnovers in that game but still out gained the Titans in Tennessee. Knowing the way Pittsburgh shut down Jackson in the one game he played against the Steelers, should give the Bills a good game plan to shut down the one-dimension team in this game. Turnovers decide this one.
Bills -2.5

Cleveland At Kansas City -10. Sunday 3:05PM (52% of the public was on the Browns - and moving up )
Browns have overcome decades of losing and finally have a real team with good players. Many of which are voted into the pro bowl. The Chiefs are still the "king of the hill" until someone knocks them off the top.
Cleveland will draw a lot of money this week and rightfully so. Double-digit dogs didnt do well last week as the Saints covered the 11 on Chicago and while Tampa won against the Skins as a 9.5 to 10 point favorite. Ask yourself this...Is Cleveland a better 10 point dog than both Chicago and Washington? Is Kansas City really a lot better than the Saints or Tampa?
KC was favored by 10 or more points to ATL -11, Jets-19, Denver -13, Carolina -10 and New England -11. All of which Cleveland would likely beat as well.
The Browns are on a mission and will have all of the six starters who were out last week from Covid-China including the entire coaching staff who was also out. If Cleveland advances - this would be the biggest suprise in decades. It could happen because KC has not been as dominating this year as they ere a year ago on offense. One more important fact here is the revenge factor. kareem Hunt was cut by KC for domestic disorderly and he was picked up by the Browns. He will share a lot of info and will want to run all over the Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per rush this year. Along with Chubb in the backfield, this should be a greta game. Who Knows...Maybe the UPSET of the TEAR! AGAIN!
Browns +10.5 (-120) (Locked in at 10.5)

Tampa at New Orleans -3. . Sunday 6:40PM (54% on Tampa)
Does Brady or Brees have enough to win this game? Both teams are ranked the same on defense. The same can be said for the offenses. Brady managed to put up late scores against a Washington team with a solid defense. But the Tampa defense allowed a soft offensive Skins team to score as well. Saints beat Tampa 2 times this year and one reason why is that the Bucs turned the ball over 3 times in each game! Saints pass rush should decide the winner.
Saints -3

The matchup of concern through my optics is Graham...I think he's the best in the league and unable to be contained through single coverage...Ramsey is obviously a beast and what he did to Metcalf last week and throughout his career speaks for itself...Im assuming since you've posted Rams you are in the corner of Ramsey doing his thing....please speak to this match up if you can? Ty and GL

 

[vinnyvegas]

Great dialog by all. Glad I stuck to my guns. Against you on rest also. Ravens in game now...KC and Bucs. BOL.