Regular Season Final.. 110-71 (60.7%). + $11,680.00
Playoffs. Sides 5-1. +2100.00
Over/Under 0-1.-550. (included in week net$).
Futures. 0-2. -700.00
Year to date: 115-73. 61%
Curent Net. +13,090.00
Public perception was vivid last week, as most bettors (masses) were on the losers ATS going 1-5!.
Browns -2.5 61%. Loss
KC 52% -3.5. Won
Dallas -7.5. 54%. Loss
Detroit -3. 54% Loss
Steelers+10 61% Loss
Eagles-3. 51%. Loss
4 dogs cashed. KC and Bills won as favorites.
This weeks early betting percentages are.
65% on Houston +9.5. (Weather factor. Dome team going to the North Pole)(*)
62%on Green Bay +9.5. (Opened at +10)
57% on Detroit -6.5 ( Dome to Dome)
63% on Bills -2.5. ( Bills won in KC 5 weeks ago as 1 pt dog. 20-17 )
If any of the favorites are upset - the SB entrants will be a surprise. Especially since the Ravens and 49ers are the odds-on favorites to be in the Super Bowl.
Saturday.
4:30PM
Houston - is +1400 right now to win the AFC.
If they bump off Baltimore then they will play Buffalo or KC.
The Texans played Baltimore in Stroud's (<Bird Man of Alcatraz) first game as a rookie and lost 25-9.
Just to justify the line, he was a +9.5 Dog at At Baltimore in week one(1).. Has he improved enough to cover the 9.5? .
Stroud -(Bird Man)-(< Remember you saw it here first...) was effective as he passed for 196 net yds. He has improved rapidly as the season progressed.
(*) Dont forget - he played cold weather games at OSU.
Since that game in week 1, he has averaged 245 yds per game in the last 17 games.
Stroud out-yarded Jackson, who was held to 155 net yds passing in the season opener.
We just may have a real QB that can score on anyone even if he is a Rookie!
Houston beat some better teams going 3-1 vs playoff teams this year. Cle)2), Pitt and Tampa. One loss with Stroud at QB, was to Balt in Week One.
Im on Houston and +10.5 (-130). 10 units.
8:15PM
San Fran -9.5(-115) vs Green Bay..
Last time these two played was last year when SF started Jimmy G and the Packers had Aaron Rodgers. That game was a 13-10 win for SF in Green Bay.
Garoppolo was 11 for 19and and 131 yards and on his way to the bench.
Packer QB Love has improved a lot, but has faced only one true dominating team. He beat KC 27-19 and passed for 253 in Green Bay.
The Chiefs were on a huge downslide and they weren't ready for the Packers or anyone else for the following 3 games going 0-4 ats.
SF is the #3 defense (18pts per game) tied with Buffalo, in the NFL.
If GB can score on that defense - I have to see it first.
Im on SF -9.5 (-115). 10 Units
Sunday.
3:00PM
Tampa Vs Detroit.
These two faced each other in week 5 and Detroit was 4-1SU while scoring 28pts per game and allowing only 19.
Tampa was 3-2 with a bye and scoring 18pts per game and allowing 18pts per game. Detroit won 20-6 in Tampa as a 3 pt favorite..
Here we are in the playoffs and both teams flipped with their scoring averages.
Tampa improved to 20-19 while Detroit faded to 27-24. Advantage is plus +5 for Tampa on defense.
The Bucs gained a 1pt improvement - while the Lions decreased their advantage to only a 4 point advantage.
In last weeks Wild Card games, every team with the better defensive number covered ats.
Cleveland and Houston BOTH had the same defensive number at 21pts per game. Advantage when defense pts were even....was the dog.
Houston played 6 playoff teams during the season which makes their scoring numbers very solid.
My Play Tampa. +7(-120) over Detroit. 10 units
6:30PM
Chiefs Vs Bills.
Two teams that played each other this year - with the Bills +1.5 winning 20-17 at KC.
Now the bills are favored -3 over KC.
The Chiefs run game was broke for a 4-week stretch - as they failed to gain 100 yards in 3 of the 4 games - they also failed to cover the spread.
It seems that they figured out that problem and ran the ball for over 120 yds per game since - in the last 3 games.
The Bills shut down the KC run game in the win over KC. There could be a different outcome this week with KC running the ball well now.
Back when they played in KC, the Chiefs were averaging 23pts on offense and 17 on defense.
They (KC) faded 5 points/gm during that 4 game run where they faltered badly scoring 17, 19, 25 and 14 pts - averaging a pathetic 18.5 pts per game.
While the Bills have played far better in recent games they struggled to beatMiami in a 21-14 game in the division clinching win the last week of the season.
The Phins had a 23 pt defense and that also was not all that great when they hid those numbers with large scoring advantages in home games. One game alone was 70 pts scored on Denver!
In addition, Miam had 8 home games with only 2 against teams with winning records! Thats why they had a fake offense scoring number of 29 pts per game.
If there wasn't a 70 pt home game and the 5 others were losing teams - that makes the the game with Buffalo a very weak win for the Bills.
Knowing that! Is why the Bills win was not all that great in week 18.
They will have a much tougher run this week with the Chiefs!
Kansas city +3 over Buffalo. 10 units.
My other points:
Defensive scores that were the best last week were KC and Tampa with both allowing under 10 points.
I expect the Niners to score as many or more than Dallas did and GB to come back down to their season average at 23 or less.
Better defenses last week were Rams, Packers, Chiefs, Tampa and Buffalo.
This week its, San Fran. Baltimore, Tampa and Kansas City with the better defenses.
Teams with the biggest win margins last week were.Houston 45-14, GB 48-32, Chiefs 25-7, Tampa 32-9, Bills 31-17, Detroit 26-24.
Knowing that Houston and GB both scored over 40pts - raises the Red Flag here this week.
Both teams are facing the better defenses this week - when they had the advantage last week.
We also have 2 teams that had the better defense last week that won SU and again we have the same 2 teams with the better defense as dogs! Thats Tampa and KC.
GL.
Playoffs. Sides 5-1. +2100.00
Over/Under 0-1.-550. (included in week net$).
Futures. 0-2. -700.00
Year to date: 115-73. 61%
Curent Net. +13,090.00
Public perception was vivid last week, as most bettors (masses) were on the losers ATS going 1-5!.
Browns -2.5 61%. Loss
KC 52% -3.5. Won
Dallas -7.5. 54%. Loss
Detroit -3. 54% Loss
Steelers+10 61% Loss
Eagles-3. 51%. Loss
4 dogs cashed. KC and Bills won as favorites.
This weeks early betting percentages are.
65% on Houston +9.5. (Weather factor. Dome team going to the North Pole)(*)
62%on Green Bay +9.5. (Opened at +10)
57% on Detroit -6.5 ( Dome to Dome)
63% on Bills -2.5. ( Bills won in KC 5 weeks ago as 1 pt dog. 20-17 )
If any of the favorites are upset - the SB entrants will be a surprise. Especially since the Ravens and 49ers are the odds-on favorites to be in the Super Bowl.
Saturday.
4:30PM
Houston - is +1400 right now to win the AFC.
If they bump off Baltimore then they will play Buffalo or KC.
The Texans played Baltimore in Stroud's (<Bird Man of Alcatraz) first game as a rookie and lost 25-9.
Just to justify the line, he was a +9.5 Dog at At Baltimore in week one(1).. Has he improved enough to cover the 9.5? .
Stroud -(Bird Man)-(< Remember you saw it here first...) was effective as he passed for 196 net yds. He has improved rapidly as the season progressed.
(*) Dont forget - he played cold weather games at OSU.
Since that game in week 1, he has averaged 245 yds per game in the last 17 games.
Stroud out-yarded Jackson, who was held to 155 net yds passing in the season opener.
We just may have a real QB that can score on anyone even if he is a Rookie!
Houston beat some better teams going 3-1 vs playoff teams this year. Cle)2), Pitt and Tampa. One loss with Stroud at QB, was to Balt in Week One.
Im on Houston and +10.5 (-130). 10 units.
8:15PM
San Fran -9.5(-115) vs Green Bay..
Last time these two played was last year when SF started Jimmy G and the Packers had Aaron Rodgers. That game was a 13-10 win for SF in Green Bay.
Garoppolo was 11 for 19and and 131 yards and on his way to the bench.
Packer QB Love has improved a lot, but has faced only one true dominating team. He beat KC 27-19 and passed for 253 in Green Bay.
The Chiefs were on a huge downslide and they weren't ready for the Packers or anyone else for the following 3 games going 0-4 ats.
SF is the #3 defense (18pts per game) tied with Buffalo, in the NFL.
If GB can score on that defense - I have to see it first.
Im on SF -9.5 (-115). 10 Units
Sunday.
3:00PM
Tampa Vs Detroit.
These two faced each other in week 5 and Detroit was 4-1SU while scoring 28pts per game and allowing only 19.
Tampa was 3-2 with a bye and scoring 18pts per game and allowing 18pts per game. Detroit won 20-6 in Tampa as a 3 pt favorite..
Here we are in the playoffs and both teams flipped with their scoring averages.
Tampa improved to 20-19 while Detroit faded to 27-24. Advantage is plus +5 for Tampa on defense.
The Bucs gained a 1pt improvement - while the Lions decreased their advantage to only a 4 point advantage.
In last weeks Wild Card games, every team with the better defensive number covered ats.
Cleveland and Houston BOTH had the same defensive number at 21pts per game. Advantage when defense pts were even....was the dog.
Houston played 6 playoff teams during the season which makes their scoring numbers very solid.
My Play Tampa. +7(-120) over Detroit. 10 units
6:30PM
Chiefs Vs Bills.
Two teams that played each other this year - with the Bills +1.5 winning 20-17 at KC.
Now the bills are favored -3 over KC.
The Chiefs run game was broke for a 4-week stretch - as they failed to gain 100 yards in 3 of the 4 games - they also failed to cover the spread.
It seems that they figured out that problem and ran the ball for over 120 yds per game since - in the last 3 games.
The Bills shut down the KC run game in the win over KC. There could be a different outcome this week with KC running the ball well now.
Back when they played in KC, the Chiefs were averaging 23pts on offense and 17 on defense.
They (KC) faded 5 points/gm during that 4 game run where they faltered badly scoring 17, 19, 25 and 14 pts - averaging a pathetic 18.5 pts per game.
While the Bills have played far better in recent games they struggled to beatMiami in a 21-14 game in the division clinching win the last week of the season.
The Phins had a 23 pt defense and that also was not all that great when they hid those numbers with large scoring advantages in home games. One game alone was 70 pts scored on Denver!
In addition, Miam had 8 home games with only 2 against teams with winning records! Thats why they had a fake offense scoring number of 29 pts per game.
If there wasn't a 70 pt home game and the 5 others were losing teams - that makes the the game with Buffalo a very weak win for the Bills.
Knowing that! Is why the Bills win was not all that great in week 18.
They will have a much tougher run this week with the Chiefs!
Kansas city +3 over Buffalo. 10 units.
My other points:
Defensive scores that were the best last week were KC and Tampa with both allowing under 10 points.
I expect the Niners to score as many or more than Dallas did and GB to come back down to their season average at 23 or less.
Better defenses last week were Rams, Packers, Chiefs, Tampa and Buffalo.
This week its, San Fran. Baltimore, Tampa and Kansas City with the better defenses.
Teams with the biggest win margins last week were.Houston 45-14, GB 48-32, Chiefs 25-7, Tampa 32-9, Bills 31-17, Detroit 26-24.
Knowing that Houston and GB both scored over 40pts - raises the Red Flag here this week.
Both teams are facing the better defenses this week - when they had the advantage last week.
We also have 2 teams that had the better defense last week that won SU and again we have the same 2 teams with the better defense as dogs! Thats Tampa and KC.
GL.
