About a 14% buydown off the open on books that set the opening lines rather than follow them. A material move, but something you typically see in 10 games a week (probably a higher rate with interleague games, as the divergence between oddsmakers line perception and the markets perception increases).
I doubt it has anything to do with the poor offensive performance last night as mentioned above. Materail moves are not predicated on the day befores performance. And it is surely not predicated on having to fly West to East, as that was known when the line came out, and if cross country trips had material impact on line movement, books would put themselves in position to be arbed out (and would correct it fast).
I think this is nothing more than the market correcting a highly inflated price tag on the open. With line moves going towards my models pricing about 75% of the time, and my model showing that the Marlins were the most undervalued team off the open, I am not suprised with the line movement here.
The only thing I can think of aside from the market picking off value is the notion that the % chance of Cantu and Ramirez playing (and playing at top form) is higher now than it was when the opening line was set.
I doubt it has anything to do with the poor offensive performance last night as mentioned above. Materail moves are not predicated on the day befores performance. And it is surely not predicated on having to fly West to East, as that was known when the line came out, and if cross country trips had material impact on line movement, books would put themselves in position to be arbed out (and would correct it fast).
I think this is nothing more than the market correcting a highly inflated price tag on the open. With line moves going towards my models pricing about 75% of the time, and my model showing that the Marlins were the most undervalued team off the open, I am not suprised with the line movement here.
The only thing I can think of aside from the market picking off value is the notion that the % chance of Cantu and Ramirez playing (and playing at top form) is higher now than it was when the opening line was set.
