FYI: MARCH MADNESS- MANY STATS, TRENDS, AND RECORDS....COME AND GET IT!

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Gang. I came across some information from another source, and I wanted to share it with you. Now these are from the past Tourney games, and it can be used to help you out in some way in being successful in this March Madness Tourney. In my opinion, it shouldnt be used as your ONLY means to select a games to play, as other factors are just as or more important than this information. Still, this information, like I mentioned may help you out in coming out on the Positive end. GL CC.


OVERALL TOURNAMENT TRENDS- SINCE 1998.


* Favorites are just 170-202-8 since '98 in the NCAA's.

* Double digit favorites are 56-61-2 ATS.

* Favorites of 3 points or less are just 38-38 SU & 34-51 ATS (40%) in that span.

* Two games have been pick em' spreads since '98, and each was won by the lower seeded team. Illinois St beat Tennessee 82-81 in 98', and Gonzaga beat Minnesota 77-66 in 2000.



TOTALS:


* In the 315 NCAA tourney games that had totals, 156 went OVER and 158 went UNDER.

* 33 of 60 games with a total of 130 points or less went OVER (55%).

-Last year, 12 of 19 games with a total of 145 or more went UNDER.

-From a general standpoint, everything else regarding totals seems to be as probable as the flip of the coin.


SEED RECORDS:


Seed ATS Record

#1: 48-49-3 (49%)

#2: 28-43-2 (39%)

#3: 38-32-1 (54%)

#4: 24-28-1 (46%)

#5: 25-25-2 (50%)

#6: 27-25-2 (52%)

#7: 14-24 (37%)

#8: 26-18 (59%)

#9: 17-20 (46%)

#10: 29-18-1 (62%)

#11: 18-16-2 (53%)

#12: 22-15 (59%)

#13: 15-15-2 (50%)

#14: 10-16 (38%)

#15: 15-10 (60%)

#16: 11-15 (42%)


CONFERENCE RECORDS:


Conference ATS Record

ACC: 33-37-2 (47%)

Atlantic 10: 14-16-1 (47%)

Big 12: 41-36 (53%)

Big East: 42-33-2 (56%)

Big Ten: 56-39-2 (59%)

Conf USA: 14-21 (40%)

Pac 10: 33-39-1 (46%)

SEC: 33-43-2 (43%)



*For the record, the small conferences with the most interesting records to note are the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference which is 6-1 ATs, and the Ivy League, which is 0-6 SU and ATS.

-Last year 03', the Big East had the best record with a 12-4 ATS mark, highlighted by Syracuse's winning the National Title.



MY EMAIL ADDRESS: cocaptainsports@yahoo.com

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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 15, 2004 at 11:18 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

FIRST ROUND:

* Over the last 6 years in the 1st Rd.

-Favorite/Underdog Trends are hanging around at 50%, as the FAV holds an overall mark of 47.8%.

-The higher seeds own a 51% ATS mark, with similar performances numbers both on Thursday and Friday of the opening round.

-The most significant trends seem to surround the seeded matchups. For instance, the #5 vs #12 matchup has long been regarded as the potential upset, but in truth, the #10 seeds have been the best UNDERDOG, holding a significant edge over the #7's in their head to head games, winning 14 of 24, both SU and ATS.


Seed Matchup Results:


#1 vs #16: The #1 seed is 24-0 SU and 14-10 ATS. 13 of 20 totaled games went UNDER.

#2 vs #15: #2 seeds are 23-1 SU but just 9-15 ATS. 13 of 20 totaled games went UNDER.

#3 vs #14: This matchup has been owned by the #3 seed, 22-2 SU and 14-10 ATS. OVER/UNDER is 9/11.

#4 vs #13: The #4 seed is 18-6 SU and 13-10-1 ATS vs the #13: The OVER/UNDER ratio is 11/9.

#5 vs #12: 5th seeds are 15-9 SU and but 9-14 ATS vs the #12's. The OVER is 14-6 in the series.

#6 vs #11: #6 seeds have fared well straight up, going 16-8, but just 11-13 ATS. 11 of the 20 games went UNDER the posted total.

#7 vs #10: As mentioned earlier, the #10 seed is 14-10 SU and ATS in this matchup. The UNDER is 12-6-2.

#8 vs #9: This has been a close series, with the games being split 12-12 SU and ATS. O/U ratio is 10/10.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 15, 2004 at 10:22 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

SECOND ROUND:


*Over the last 6 years, the 2nd Rd of the tournament, has seen a number of signficant patterns forming. More than any, is the performances of the UNDERDOGS and lower seeds. In fact, regarding by the trend regarding the last day of the tournament's opening weekend, it may be renamed "UPSET SUNDAY".


General Trends:


* The rate of SU wins by the lower seeds is 4% better in the 2nd RD than overall. (36%-32%)

* 2/3 of the lower seed wins come on Sunday of the 2nd RD. In fact, the lower seeds own a SU record of 23-25 on Sunday, nearly 50%. They are also 27-21 ATS, 56%.

* The 2nd RD, in general, has been a HIGHER scoring RD, 42 or 79 total games have gone OVER the total. In fact, the higher scoring tournament games of the last 5 years was a 2nd RD game, that being UCLA's 105-101 upset of Cincinnati in 2002.


LINE PLACEMENTS:


* Favorites of more than 6pts are just 22-24 ATS.

* Favorites of 4-6pts are 11-9 ATS.

* Favorites of less than 4pts are just 10-17 ATS!


SEEDING PATTERNS:


* The #1, #2, & #3 seeds have a combined record of 31-37 ATS (46%) in the 2nd RD.

* The #2 seed's performance is particularly troubling when facing the #10 seed: 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS.

* The #2 seed does perform well against a #7 seed though, 7-3 SU and ATS.

* The #10 and #8 seeds own the best ATS record in this RD, going 10-4 ATS and 9-4 ATS, respectively.



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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 15, 2004 at 11:03 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

SWEET 16 ROUND:



* Over the last 6 years, the Sweet 16 RD might be best described as the round where the underdogs give it the ole college try but come up short as there is a 17 game difference betwen the SU and ATS wins of the higher seeds here. Below is some interesting trends from recent Sweet 16 action.

* Higher seeds own a 33-15 SU record but are just 16-29-3 ATS in the Sweet 16 RD.

* Similarly, favorites are 35-13 SU. The highest SU winning percentage of any round (73%).

* Overall, totals in this round are 17 OVER, 21 UNDER. However, in games with totals below 140, the results are 9 OVERS-4 UNDERS. In totals above 140, the result: 6 OVERS, 14 UNDERS.

* Seeds #8-#13 who have reached the Sweet 16 are 7-15 SU but 12-9-1 ATS.

* Interestingly, the #8 seed has won straight up in all three appearances in the Sweet 16.

* The #4 seed has done dreadfully in this round, going just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS. The only 4th seed to advance to the Elite 8 RD was Ohio ST, who beat Auburn in '99, 72-64.



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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 15, 2004 at 11:32 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

ELITE 8 ROUND:


* The Elite 8 RD has probably produced the biggest % of BLOWOUT games in the past 6 year as an unusually high 46% of the games, 11 of 24, have been decided by DDs. In fact, over the last 3 years, just one of the 12 games was decided by less than 6pts, that coming last year in the Arizona/Kentucky game. Furthermore, the round has also produced some higher scoring games, with 13 of the 20 totaled higher scoring games, with 13 of the 20 totaled games going OVER. Below are a few more interesting points regarding the Elite 8 RD.


* 17 of the 24 games in the RD have involved #1 seeds. They are 10-7 SU but 6-9-2 ATS.

* #5 and #8 seeds have combined for a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS record in Elite 8 action. The only team to not advance to the Final Four from this group was Rhode Island, a #5 seed in '98 who lost by 2pts to Stanford.

* Elite 8 upsets have generally come in games with small spreads, as underdogs of less than seven pts have compiled an impressive 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS mark over the last 6 years.

* The ONLY one of the 8 favorites of 7 or more pts to lose SU was Arizona in '98, who lost to Utah by 25pts. Incidentally, that game marks the second "easiest" ATS wager over the past 5 years as the 35-1/2 pt differential from the game spread fell just shy of the 38-1/2 pt difference in UCLA's 105-70 second RD upset over Maryland in 2000.

* The ACC and Big Ten have made the most of their Elite 8 opportunities. The ACC is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, while the Big Ten is 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS since '98.



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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 15, 2004 at 11:46 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

FINAL FOUR GAME TRENDS:


* This information, covers Final Four Rd games since 1987, when the 3pt shot was added to the game.


OVERALL FAVORITE/UNDERDOG RESULTS.


* Since 1987, there have been 51 total Final Four games played, and the ATS results have been about as predictable as the flip of a coin.

* The Favorites have won 32 of the 51 games SU, the Underdogs had a small 27-24 ATS edge.

* In the Championship Game, the Favorite holds a slight edge, having won 9 of 17 ATS and 13 of those 17 SU.

* Currently, the Favorite in the Final is on quite a stretch, with an 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS record in the last 14. Syracuse managed to slow that trend however, beating Kansas in the 2003 final, 81-78, as a 5.5pt underdog.


LINE PLACEMENT


* Simply following the Favorite or the Underdog in a Final Four game will not give you any kind of consistant success. But analying the amount of pts being given does reveal some secrets though. Below are some of the records based on the lines.


*Favorites of 6.5 pts or more are only 9-7 SU and 3-13 ATS.

*Favorites of 4-6 pts are 12-4 SU and ATS.

*Favorites of less than 4 pts are 11-9 SU and 9-11 ATS.

-The ONLY three times since '87 that a team Favored by more than 6.5 pts covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan St beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8 pt favorite. In the '97 semis, when Kentucky laying 6.5 pts, beat Minnesota 78-69. And finally, in the 2002 championship game when Maryland, a 7.5 pt favorite, beat Indiana 64-52.


SEED RECORDS


*Does a team's seed help determine anything about potential wagers? The answer is NO. Below is the records of the seeds in the Final Four games since 1987.


Seed# SU Rec and ATS Record

#1's: 26-18 / 23-21(52%)

#2's: 9-12 / 9-12 (43%)

#3's: 8-8 / 10-6 (63%)

#4's: 3-6 / 4-5 (44%)

#5's: 2-3 / 2-3 (40%)

#6's: 3-2 / 3-2 (60%)

#8's: 0-2 / 0-2 (0%)


*NO seed lower than 8th has been to the Final Four in the past 16 seasons.

*Also, though its very rare, any number 1 seeds that was installed as an Underdog, has gone 7-3 ATS.


CONFERENCE RECORDS


*The Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the Final Four, while the Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten struggle somewhat. Below is the respective conference records.


*Conf: SU Rec and ATS Rec

ACC: 13-12 / 12-13 (48%)

Atl 10: 0-1 / 1-0 (100%)

Big 12: 5-8 / 5-8 (38%)

Big East: 7-4 / 10-1 (91%)

Big Ten: 9-10 / 8-11 (42%)

Conf USA: 0-2 / 0-2 (0%)

Pac 10: 5-4 / 6-3 (66.7%)

SEC: 9-7 / 6-10 (37%)

WAC: 3-3 / 3-3 (50%)


TOTALS


*Note: the OVER/UNDERS Totals posted for the Final Four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reasons? It may be due to Oddsmakers trying to TRAP exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more Offensive fireworks.

-The avid fan should know by now though that defense wins Championships (and semifinal games too)!

-To illustrate this point, of the 51 Final Four games, there were 29 UNDERS, 21 OVERS, and 1 PUSH.

-Coincidentally, all 3 games in the 2003 Final Four weekend went OVER the total. 35 of the games have had a total higher than 150 pts. Of those, 21 were UNDERS.

-Not even UNLV's high flying teams of the early 90's were able to meet ridiculously inflated totals. In their championship run of 1990, the Runnin' Rebel went UNDER in both games, each with a total in the 180's!

-Some NBA teams can't even score that much anymore!



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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 16, 2004 at 05:04 AM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

 

[SmokeyWins]

CC.... PLEASE CONTACT ME...

MY CONTACT INFO IS IN THE SITE PROMO AREA..

THANKS

 

[Co-Captain]

Smokey, I sent you an email. Aloha CC.

 

[NoPartials]

Wow, what an array of information to digest. Historical trends do offer food for thought. As always CC, good luck in the tournamnet. I am attending a calcutta tonight. I need to make some decisions.

 

[Co-Captain]

No Partials,

I agree, it is alot to digest, that is why I posted it in different sections, pertaining to the different rounds. Now all anyone needs to do is read the post per the round the tourney is in. Good to you as well in the tourney. Aloha CC.


BTW, what is a Calcutta?

 

[stewie21]

thank you

 

[Kodiak7]

Big Ten: 56-39-2 (59%)

HMMMMM!

 

[RollTide+]

Capt, thank you..You are truly a Class Act...

Joe

 

[steeser]

Definitely some very good historical info.

Thanks.

 

[bid2slam]

Great Post Captain!!!

Thanks!

 

[pops69]

good data co-cap, show that those fav locks we like are only locks 50% of the time. good luck

 

[Co-Captain]

Your welcome, Enjoy!

 

[pinned]

very good info co-captain. Well done.
I just doubt if the Big Ten will be at 59 percent ATS after the tournament?
very doubtful.
Wisky to me the only legit team.

 

[chicosbailbonds]

Co-Captain, I believe a calcutta to be an auction of the teams going to the highest bidder. Anyone can bid on any and all teams. I have been a part of many of these in golf tourneys, but never the NCAA, but a good idea. BTW, i'm going to Cancun on Wed (great timing, huh) any chance you would e-mail me your Th & Fri plays? jctram@charter.net