Soonerdawg1, this season roughly 17% of all games played (no preseason) fell on the number three. which is less than one in five. Based on that stat plus 375 for Yes the SB will fall three is very favorable for the house. Unless you want to throw a smalll shits and giggles $10 bet say on the prop I would leave it alone. Most of the will something happen props are big money makers for the books.
The one huge exception was back in SB XX in January of 1986 when the late William "Refrigerator" Perry was all the rage and there was a lot of talk on whether or not the Bears big man would score a TD in the game. During the course of the regular season, Mike Ditka, Bears HC, had given the ball to 'the Fridge' in several short yardage, goal line situations with success.
Capitalizing on this phenomenon, many Vegas sports books put a wager up on the board at 40/1 odds that allowed the public to wager on whether or not the Fridge would cross the goal line in Super Bowl XX.
By kickoff, the odds had incredibly dropped to 2/1 as the public decided 'what the hell' and got down on Perry. Of course, as we all know now, Perry did score and the books got crushed in a serious way.
Mike Ditka has gone on record saying the thing he regrets most during his entire football career was not giving that play or one of several other short yardage plays (helll Jim McMahon scored a one yard TD) to the late great Walter Peyton to score a TD. Peyton who ended up a fabulous career without ever scoring a TD in his only Super Bowl had to much class to make a big deal out of it.
However all that aside The Super Bowl Prop was born that day and has now become a mainstay for the books who usually clean up on the lousy odds they offer the public in most cases when it comes to props.
I try to select a prop that coincides with my main wager on the side or total if I play a prop. For example I would not bet on Aaron Rodgers to not throw an INT and then bet on the Steelers.. I know you cannot parlay these semi correlated props but if you know what you are doing you can make a play where both are liable to get their if your team wins and covers the game. For example if the Steelers win I have a good chance that Rashard Mendenhall will rush for at least 80 yards. No guarantee mind you but a better chance that if GB wins IMO.
Bottom line IMO wagering yes the game will falll three at +375 is a worse bet than betting the coin toss on heads and laying 105 to 100, statistically at least.
Have a great game but use your head when betting props, if you are serious about finding value in a prop look for at least one where you can get plus money but stay away from those pie in the sky long shots.
I am talking about something with a reasonable chance of getting there such as "will there be a defensive or special team TD by either team in the game"? at Yes +150 - that is decent plus money with an event that happens fairly often. Both Pitt and GB scored defensive TDs in their respective Conference championships.
If I have time I will post another prop in this thread later today..
Best of luck, wilheim.
PS. For Buster, that Bears/Pats game resulted in a defensive lineman being named MVP as Richard Dent became just the 2nd to do so. The first was Randy White in SB XII. Other RBs to win it are Larry Csonka, Franco Harris, John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Otis Anderson, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis and Desmond Howard as a kick returner. A good sized group of ends have won it but the MVP has been dominated by QBs.
Super Bowl props were born that day during the Bears route of the Patriots 25 years ago and the bookies have wised up since then and have made big money hanging horrible for the public numbers on props such as will such and such a player score a TD. Props are fun to bet on and sharp players can cull out some rare value these days on occasion but nothing will ever top the William Perry will score a TD prop at 40-1 again.
The one huge exception was back in SB XX in January of 1986 when the late William "Refrigerator" Perry was all the rage and there was a lot of talk on whether or not the Bears big man would score a TD in the game. During the course of the regular season, Mike Ditka, Bears HC, had given the ball to 'the Fridge' in several short yardage, goal line situations with success.
Capitalizing on this phenomenon, many Vegas sports books put a wager up on the board at 40/1 odds that allowed the public to wager on whether or not the Fridge would cross the goal line in Super Bowl XX.
By kickoff, the odds had incredibly dropped to 2/1 as the public decided 'what the hell' and got down on Perry. Of course, as we all know now, Perry did score and the books got crushed in a serious way.
Mike Ditka has gone on record saying the thing he regrets most during his entire football career was not giving that play or one of several other short yardage plays (helll Jim McMahon scored a one yard TD) to the late great Walter Peyton to score a TD. Peyton who ended up a fabulous career without ever scoring a TD in his only Super Bowl had to much class to make a big deal out of it.
However all that aside The Super Bowl Prop was born that day and has now become a mainstay for the books who usually clean up on the lousy odds they offer the public in most cases when it comes to props.
I try to select a prop that coincides with my main wager on the side or total if I play a prop. For example I would not bet on Aaron Rodgers to not throw an INT and then bet on the Steelers.. I know you cannot parlay these semi correlated props but if you know what you are doing you can make a play where both are liable to get their if your team wins and covers the game. For example if the Steelers win I have a good chance that Rashard Mendenhall will rush for at least 80 yards. No guarantee mind you but a better chance that if GB wins IMO.
Bottom line IMO wagering yes the game will falll three at +375 is a worse bet than betting the coin toss on heads and laying 105 to 100, statistically at least.
Have a great game but use your head when betting props, if you are serious about finding value in a prop look for at least one where you can get plus money but stay away from those pie in the sky long shots.
I am talking about something with a reasonable chance of getting there such as "will there be a defensive or special team TD by either team in the game"? at Yes +150 - that is decent plus money with an event that happens fairly often. Both Pitt and GB scored defensive TDs in their respective Conference championships.
If I have time I will post another prop in this thread later today..
Best of luck, wilheim.
PS. For Buster, that Bears/Pats game resulted in a defensive lineman being named MVP as Richard Dent became just the 2nd to do so. The first was Randy White in SB XII. Other RBs to win it are Larry Csonka, Franco Harris, John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Otis Anderson, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis and Desmond Howard as a kick returner. A good sized group of ends have won it but the MVP has been dominated by QBs.
Super Bowl props were born that day during the Bears route of the Patriots 25 years ago and the bookies have wised up since then and have made big money hanging horrible for the public numbers on props such as will such and such a player score a TD. Props are fun to bet on and sharp players can cull out some rare value these days on occasion but nothing will ever top the William Perry will score a TD prop at 40-1 again.
Welcome to Costa Rica Coop...I hope you have a great time. Unfortunately I live about as far from the Del Ray as you can and not live in Cartago. Plus I am buried with work today..Email me at person19481950@yahoo.com and let me know your itinerary while here in CR, Maybe we can hook up.
Best of luck today, wil..
Best of luck today, wil..
great write up wil....i am w you on pitt as well. if this game was in nov at a neutral site, pitt would and should be the fav. the pub has this game all wrong in my eye's as well. gb is 31st against the run and 1st against the pass. pitt is #1 against the run and 2nd against the pass. this line should have pitt fav, not gb. my boy, iceman, made the line pitt -4. there is no way that gb should be the fav. rodgers #'s against a tough def show's he struggles w them. i don't feel it is gb 'time' yet . you can usually tell when a team is ready for 'their turn' at winning a ring. i myself don't see it being gb this yr. the experience to me is a big key, imo, as you have mentioned. and now they are telling pitt that they are 'underdog's'? i think this will give the steelers' def a little bit of an attitude for the game.....pitt win's this 35-24....gl to all...!!^^
imp:
imp:
great write up wil....i am w you on pitt as well. if this game was in nov at a neutral site, pitt would and should be the fav. the pub has this game all wrong in my eye's as well. gb is 31st against the run and 1st against the pass. pitt is #1 against the run and 2nd against the pass. this line should have pitt fav, not gb. my boy, iceman, made the line pitt -4. there is no way that gb should be the fav. rodgers #'s against a tough def show's he struggles w them. i don't feel it is gb 'time' yet . you can usually tell when a team is ready for 'their turn' at winning a ring. i myself don't see it being gb this yr. the experience to me is a big key, imo, as you have mentioned. and now they are telling pitt that they are 'underdog's'? i think this will give the steelers' def a little bit of an attitude for the game.....pitt win's this 35-24....gl to all...!!^^
............wrong.
Pitt is 12th against the pass, and this having played only ONE game all year(including playoffs) against a team ranked in the top 10 in passing, a game they lost(Saints).
GB is ranked 5th in the league in passing offense.
This is the team NFL passing rankings of the other teams Pitt played this season(including playoffs)....................
NE 11th....lost
CIN 13th
CIN 13th
ALT 15th
MIA 16th
TB 17th
BALT 20th
BALT 20th
BALT 20th
JETS 22nd
JETS 22nd
OAK 23rd
BUF 24th
TENN 25th
CLE 29th
CLE 29TH
CAR 32nd
Trying to handicap a game with a single stat such as passing yards allowed per game is in almost all cases a waste of time. One stat that does tell a lot is strength of schedule. This year The packers went 10-6 vs a SOS of 125-131 a .488 win % and the Steelers went 12-4 against a SOS 126-130 a .492 win %.
Pretty much a wash until you look at their loses.
Packers lost to:
Chicago
Detroit
Atlanta
New England
Washington
Miami
Steelers lost to
Nw England
Baltimore
New Orleans
NY Jets
wil.
Pretty much a wash until you look at their loses.
Packers lost to:
Chicago
Detroit
Atlanta
New England
Washington
Miami
Steelers lost to
Nw England
Baltimore
New Orleans
NY Jets
wil.
