Fullerton @ Pacific (7P - PST)

[winkyduck]

Let’s take a look at the last 13 games between Fullerton and Pacific:

1/5/04: 66-64 UOP @ Fullerton (130 points scored in the game)
2/27/03: 55-52 Fullerton @ UOP (107)
2/1/03: 62-61 UOP @ Fullerton (123)
2/21/02: 67-61 UOP @ Fullerton (128)
1/26/02: 82-48 UOP @ UOP (130)
2/17/01: 63-50 UOP @ Fullerton (113)
1/4/01: 79-50 UOP @ UOP (129)
2/26/00: 68-53 UOP @ UOP (121)
2/3/00: 59-54 UOP @ Fullerton (113)
2/18/99: 75-59 UOP @ UOP (134)
1/23/99: 68-64 Fullerton @ Fullerton (132)
2/19/98: 71-57 UOP @ Fullerton (128)
1/24/98: 86-68 UOP @ UOP (154)

so now let’s take a look at the posted line for tonite’s game:

UOP –13/134.5 (Olympic) OR –12.5 /136 (Pinnacle)

Now let’s take another look at the scores of the last 13 games. Of those 13 games, how many of them do you see where the 2 teams scored MORE then 134.5? ONE – and that was over 6 years ago. The last 12 times these 2 have met they have NEVER passed 134.5 in total points. They got to 134 once and close several times later – but never over 134. I know at some point in time these 2 have to go over 134 – but until they do – I’ll be on the UNDER every single time. Lately Fullerton has been scoring points like crazy – but the key stat to look at here is UOP. For those not in the know, UOP is one of the very best defensive teams in the nation. They have played 7 home conference games so far this season, with the total points scored in each game being: 131, 124, 118, 132, 152, 119, 125 – or 6 of 7 game way UNDER the 134.5 (lowest posted) total. The exception was the 154 put up in the Cal Poly game – but Cal Poly is the worst team in the Big West and makes no secret of the fact they play as much defense as LMU did under Paul Westhead. Fullerton can – and does – play defense – and we know UOP does.

With all of this in mind, to me the one play that has to be made here is:

Fullerton/Pacific UNDER 136 (Pinnacle) although I think the 134.5 total at Olympic is safe to go UNDER, too – it’s just whenever I can get a “free” 1.5 points I will take it.

 

[G.MONEY]

WINKY,

COULD NOT AGREE WITH YOU MORE..ONE OF MY PLAY'S FOR TONIGHT AS WELL....GL.......G.

 

[BuckEyez]

G.Money,
When do you think you will be updating your thread with tonight's picks?
Thanks

 

[G.MONEY]

BUCKEYZ,

AROUND 4:30 CENTRAL WAITING TO SEE IF THERE IS SOME POSITIVE LINE MOVEMENT

 

[truelyhandicapping]

GREAT STATS.

SOLD ME

 

[jcambert]

Sold me too. The under is now one of my plays as well.

JP

 

[richdude57]

DAMM! MADE ME A BELIEVER, I AM IN ALSO. THANKS

THE DUDE &gt

~

 

[thetexaskid]

winky-what do you think about northridge-5.5 getting back two susp players tonight?

thanks

 

thanks winky

 

[winkyduck]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by thetexaskid:
winky-what do you think about northridge-5.5 getting back two susp players tonight?

thanks<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

no real clue here. get UCR out of their home gym and they aren't that good and northridge plays better at home than the road - by far.

leeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeean to northridge but not enough to play it.

looking over the other BW games - and knowing the way Cal Poly plays i'll also be on there game against Long Beach to go OVER 145 - if this stays under 150 i'll be stunned for i expect BOTH teams to get into the 70s at least.

 

[Railbird]

Winky,

You need to switch sides on that play, as these college careers come to a close, their is more shots and less passes in these meaningless late season confrence games. I dont think what happend in 1999 is relevant, and this will be similar to the CSF at USU game where they got to 150 in a blowout, UOP has more offensive weapons than USU.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Winky,

Forgive the ignorance of my question for you are a far better capper than I could ever hope to be, but when it's THAT obvious and the line still is off, then doesn't that mean there is something there which you haven't considered!!?? I mean surely the linesmakers are aware of the publicly available stats and figure that into the lines, no!?

 

[truelyhandicapping]

vegas has to go by the average.

first it would send a message to everyone what they think is going to happen. they know the true handicapper will have a good read on it.

but someone who just looks at what pacific has done or their opp. lately, more times than not will lose that bet.
always go with the average.

couldn't be more correct railbird, that's why fullerton is the play. the last 4 games have been decided by a total of 12 points.

granted they haven't played yet this year, but unless fullerton has lost a great deal of players this year, should be able to keep it close. and what else does a team like this have to play for. their season is pretty much over, what a greeat way to out.

 

[Railbird]

I hoped you switched it Winky

 

[natenewton]

railbird GREAT point it appears you actually know something about west-coast hoops...congrats!!!

 

[IDENTITY]

winky....OUCH!