< This was posted to a gambling Yahoo! group I am a member of, so if it makes any references to people that you don't understand, thats why >
While I don't like the way Intertops does their "opening weekend"
bets (they break them up into different segments like $10-$20
million, $20-$30 million, etc...), there is sometimes a lot of value
in the "$XX or less" and "$XX or more" wagers.
For the weekend opening gross of "From Justin to Kelly", they have
+280 for it to do $2.9 million or less.
Generally with movies like this, I try to find another movie that had
comparable buzz, marketing, and theater counts and see how it did.
The best recent comparable movie I found was "The Real Cancun". Very
low budget for advertising, a lot of people saying "what the hell is
this?", and a fairly small theater count. The Real Cancun's quick
rundown:
Opening weekend screens: 2261
Opening weekend gross: $2.11 million
Opening weekend per-screen gross: $933
Not only does "From Justin to Kelly" open to LESS theaters (2100),
but it is also being released the same weekend as one of the
projected blockbusters of the summer in "The Hulk".
Now you might say that the customers that would be flocking to "The
Hulk" (males) aren't the target audience for "From Justin to Kelly",
and you'd be right -- "From Justin to Kelly" is targeted at the
female audience. But look at what else is coming out that same
weekend? "Alex and Emma" -- a Rob Reiner love story with Luke Wilson
and Kate Hudson in it. If the gals are going to see a flick, that'll
be it, as the last movie that didn't look all that great but had a
female and male "heartthrob", "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days" (Hudson
and Mconahey (sp?)) brought in $24 million its opening weekend.
My play: From Justin to Kelly opening weekend UNDER $2.9 million +280
(Intertops)
-----
I also have a somewhat strong lean on Alex and Emma going over $14
million -- as How to Lose a Guy in 10 days, which had similar
actors/actresses and marketing, averaged $8,000+ per theater. That
averages Alex and Emma out to be about $17 million or so, but not
enough for me to actually make a play on it, so I'm laying off.
-Sound of Silence
-----
Movie Wagering YTD: 10-5, +19.95 units
PENDING: "X-Men 2" +$0.5 million vs "Terminator 3", -130
PENDING: "Charlie's Angels 2" -$2.0 million vs "Bruce Almighty", -115
PENDING: "Charlie's Angels 2 +$25.0 million vs The Hulk -135
PENDING: "From Justin to Kelly" less than $2.9 million, +280
PENDING: More stars, "The Hulk" or "Bad Boys 2": "The Hulk", -120
PENDING: More stars, "Dumb and Dumberer or "Charlie's Angels 2":
"Charlie's Angels 2", -120
While I don't like the way Intertops does their "opening weekend"
bets (they break them up into different segments like $10-$20
million, $20-$30 million, etc...), there is sometimes a lot of value
in the "$XX or less" and "$XX or more" wagers.
For the weekend opening gross of "From Justin to Kelly", they have
+280 for it to do $2.9 million or less.
Generally with movies like this, I try to find another movie that had
comparable buzz, marketing, and theater counts and see how it did.
The best recent comparable movie I found was "The Real Cancun". Very
low budget for advertising, a lot of people saying "what the hell is
this?", and a fairly small theater count. The Real Cancun's quick
rundown:
Opening weekend screens: 2261
Opening weekend gross: $2.11 million
Opening weekend per-screen gross: $933
Not only does "From Justin to Kelly" open to LESS theaters (2100),
but it is also being released the same weekend as one of the
projected blockbusters of the summer in "The Hulk".
Now you might say that the customers that would be flocking to "The
Hulk" (males) aren't the target audience for "From Justin to Kelly",
and you'd be right -- "From Justin to Kelly" is targeted at the
female audience. But look at what else is coming out that same
weekend? "Alex and Emma" -- a Rob Reiner love story with Luke Wilson
and Kate Hudson in it. If the gals are going to see a flick, that'll
be it, as the last movie that didn't look all that great but had a
female and male "heartthrob", "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days" (Hudson
and Mconahey (sp?)) brought in $24 million its opening weekend.
My play: From Justin to Kelly opening weekend UNDER $2.9 million +280
(Intertops)
-----
I also have a somewhat strong lean on Alex and Emma going over $14
million -- as How to Lose a Guy in 10 days, which had similar
actors/actresses and marketing, averaged $8,000+ per theater. That
averages Alex and Emma out to be about $17 million or so, but not
enough for me to actually make a play on it, so I'm laying off.
-Sound of Silence
-----
Movie Wagering YTD: 10-5, +19.95 units
PENDING: "X-Men 2" +$0.5 million vs "Terminator 3", -130
PENDING: "Charlie's Angels 2" -$2.0 million vs "Bruce Almighty", -115
PENDING: "Charlie's Angels 2 +$25.0 million vs The Hulk -135
PENDING: "From Justin to Kelly" less than $2.9 million, +280
PENDING: More stars, "The Hulk" or "Bad Boys 2": "The Hulk", -120
PENDING: More stars, "Dumb and Dumberer or "Charlie's Angels 2":
"Charlie's Angels 2", -120
