Friday's Strong Plays...

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Indiana St (-1.5) over Evansville

When lookin at this game, its really hard to ignore this year's meetings between these 2 schools. On 12/31/2003, Indiana St destroyed Evansville 72-52. In their second meeting, just 3 days ago...Indiana St went on the road and won by double digits again, 71-56.

In that 2nd game...ISU enjoyed a 28-22 advantage on point scored in the paint. The Trees also outscored the Purple Aces 16-2 on second chance points, as ISU finished the game with eleven offensive rebounds. Pretty amazing stat for a road team.

When looking at 2 teams that finished with bad records, I feel its important to look for 'good' losses (oxymoron as it is). Indiana St ended the season with a win (against their opponent), only lost by 1 to a very hot Northern Iowa team, lost another tough 1 pt game to a tough, finally healthy Bradley team, played another hot team in Buffalo, and took Creighton down to the wire on the road. Not to bad, in my opinion.

The dificult competition down the stretch should be a helpong factor in their rematch against Evansville.

Bradley (-3.5) over Illinois St.

Earlier Meetings: Bradley won both meetings...2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.

If you look at Bradley's schedule/results, you will see a stretch in the middle of the season with a lot of losses. While the beginning and end of the seasons looked solid. The main reasoning behind this was the injury to Philip Gilbert. W/ a healthy Gilbert...Bradley presents a very potent offense. Marcus Sommerville was voted first-team All-MVC and was named the league’s Newcomer of the Year. Senior guard James Gillingham landed on the All-MVC second team for a second consecutive year and earned a spot on the league’s All-Defense Team for a third straight season. While Gilbert only turned in a record-setting performance in his final career home game, setting Carver Arena records by making 21-of-22 free throws in a 31-point effort. Not too shabby.

*Braves are 2-0 in Friday’s first-round MVC tourneys.
*7-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record
*4-0 ATS versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game
*10-1 ATS as a favorite

A full healthy squad...riding big time momentum...better team...kind of difficut not to like Bradley here.


Good Luck fellas
 

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AWOL,
I agree 100%. Love both analysis.
Good Luck
1036316054.gif
 

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I'M ON BOTH SIDES AS WELL, LETS GET THIS DAY STARTED RIGHT WITH SOME QUICK VICTORIES...
 

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East Tennessee St (-5) over Davidson

I was hoping for something around this number and got it. I really beleive ETSU rolls in this game.Have you guys checked out ETSU's star...Tim Smith. Satnding at 5 foot 9 and the guy nearly goies for double digit rebounds in every game. He has a knack for controlling games with his quickness & aggressiveness...allows players like Zakee Wadood (conference POY, Jerald Fields (dominated down the stretch against Furman), and Ben Rhoda (3pt specialist) to just play their roles.

ETSU is 6-0 ATS in March games over the past 3 seasons.
ETSU is 4-0 ATS in conference tournament games "

If it wasnt for Furman's Eric Webb hitting 6 1st half threes, I really beleive ETSU would have won by a whole lot more. They made the 1st half adjustments, played better defense, and didnt allow another 3 pter in the 2nd half.

Both teams are playin solid basketball...but ETSU has much more firepower than Davidson and will be the difference.

Loyola Chicago (+8) over Detroit

I havent played Loyola Chicago all season long, but what better than to play them during the post season? Loyola has prevailed in four of its last six postseason affairs dating back to the 2002 Horizon League Championship. Not too shabby, especially for a team that hasent exactly been the cream of the crop for the Horizon League.

Coach Larry Farmer seems to emphasize rebounding during this time of year. Loyola has been successful in the postseason the last few years. In their last four tournament victories, the Ramblers own a staggering +12.5 rebounding margin.

They already pulled a 1st round upset over 5th seed Wright St. Pretty much dominating 76-59. A stifling Rambler defense held the Raiders to 39 percent shooting from the field for the game. Detroit also plays a very tough defense...which means low a scoring game. I will gladly take the points, as I feel there is a strong chance for an upset SU win.
 

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Butler (-6.5) over Wisc-GB

This is basically a home game for Butler. Wisc-GB did go into Butler earlier this year and grab a win, but I dont expect lightening to strike twice. The Bulldogs are 11-3 in Hinkle Fieldhouse. In Fact, the Bulldogs have won 73 of the last 80 games played on their homecourt.

The Bulldogs shot a season-best .596 from the field in the opening round of the Horizon League Tournament. I expect their hot shooting to continue and cruise to a DD win.


Georgia Southern (-1) over UT-Chat

A month ago, GA Southern looked like the conference's best team...and then they faltered coming down the stretch. But I really like they way they opened the tourney against Wofford. They got back to their winning ways and got a very wel balanced offensive attack.

UT-Chat has always been an up and down squad for the past 2 seasons. They did get an impressive win against CoC last night. But I've felt that CoC was vastly overrated in comparison to their past years' teams...and the fact that CoC has blown numerous 2nd half leads in their past few games (ie: ETSU & Furman)

Also, GA Southern has been able to control Champion and company over the past few seasons, including a road win this year.
 

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Idaho (+5.5) over Utah St

This is likely my favorite play of the day, or a close 2nd to the ETSU play. But has anybody noticed that Idaho has covered nine of their last ten games? I jumped aboard a few weeks ago against Fullerton, so I will gladly take the points here.

Idaho is a strong home team ...8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS
Idaho is 8-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less

This should be a knock 'em out drag 'em out game...w/ great defense. I actually think Idaho will win SU, but will take the points for added insurance. Idaho has faired very well against good defensive teams like Uah St, goin 3-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game.
 

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