TOR @ HOU over 9.5
A rare lefty vs lefty matchup @ Minute Maid Ballpark. The managers all over the league are aware of how hittable the lefties can be in this ballpark, and that's why we only had 14 L vs L matchups so far at this stadium (the under is 10-3-1 all time). No wonder why Astros started their season with only one lefty in their starting pitcher rotation and one lefty in their bullpen. As a matter of fact, last 7 L vs L matchups there went over the total with an average of 13.5 runs per game. This season alone, the lefty starters have a 5.96 era there, with Pettitte being the only starter that had any kind of success at all. The only lefty in Astros bullpen (Franco) has a 8.31 era at home. Today's lefty starter for Houston (Rodriguez) allowed 9 er in 2.2 innings pitched in his only home start this season. His overall era ytd is over 10. He is facing Lilly, another lefty, who has a 7.41 era overall and 8.81 era on the road. This is the third straight road start for Lilly after two West Coast starts and he'll also have to deal with the time zone change today. Houston actually can score runs at home (4.50 ppg) and they have been solid vs lefties there, with Mulder being the last victim. As for Toronto, they have been very impressive when given a day of rest to prepare for a lefty, as they scored 9 vs Wells and 10 vs Santana in this spot. If Lilly fails to go deep in this game, we may see two lefties from the Toronto Bullpen, who also tend to struggle on the road, Schoenweiss and Downs.
DET @ COL under 13
I'll continue to ride this Marroth trend even @ Coors Field. The under is now 15-0 in last 15 gms when Marroth (L) faces a righty opponent. His opponent today is Wright, a guy who's making a third straight Coors Field start, and he has been rather solid over there lately, with last two starts going under the total, and allowing 8 er in 18 ip in last 4 home starts, against some solid offenses in STL, ARI and CIN. Three of his best 4 starts this season came in this very same spot, when he faced a team for the first time of the season, in a game #1 of a series. The Tigers have never seen him before and that should help him. Marroth pitched in this stadium last two years so he should know what to expect there. Detroit has been struggling to put the runs on the board with a day of rest lately, and Colorado is comming of their first day off since early May, so my guess is, they didn't think a whole lot about baseball yesterday. I expect both offenses to be rusty today.
MIL @ PHI under 9
I think that a big majority of gamblers will continue to back the over in Phillies' home games even today, when we have two impressive pitchers on the mound. Not me. Myers (2.24 era) and Santos (2.71 era) are strikeout specialists and they shoult be able to strike out quite a few batters today. The Brewers are #2 in K's this season and Philly is #7. Santos has 6 K's in 5 of his last 7 starts, and Myers averages over a strikeout per inning pitched, with two 10 K games this season and at least 5 K's in every home start ytd. Both pitchers are allowing some long balls, but what impresses me about them is the fact that their home runs allowed are usually not hurting them that much. Santos allowed 6 HR in last 7 starts and all 7 were solo home runs. Seven of last eight Myers' home runs, were solo jobs as well. Philly bats are due to cool off, and I think that's going to happen today, when they face a hot pitcher, after facing a pathetic Texas pitching yesterday. Milwaukee offense has been pathetic when coming off of a day of rest, producing 4 straight unders, whiule scoring under 3 runs per game and no home runs.
Good luck,
WS