Trev Rogers
Phillies/Royals OVER 10.5
Scotty Spreitzer
25* Interleague Blowout
Angels
Larry Ness
15*Underdog of the Week
Oakland A's
15* IL Total of the Week
LAA/Stl Over
Bailout Blowout-MLB
SD Padres
Vegas Experts
Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, June 8th, 9:40 P.M. EDT
Boston suddenly not winning or scoring either. The Red Sox have lost six-of-eight and scored just 7 runs in dropping three-of-four at Oakland. Now they face an Arizona club that has won 11-of-13. BOSTON is 12-20 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons and 39-44 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 28-20 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. DAVIS is 10-2 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Play on: Arizona
Mighty ! Quinn
Cubs
Hondo
June 8, 2007 -- Hondo, who's riding that Met Misery Train, com pleted a sweep with the Phillies last night out at Flushing's Lame Duck Dump to elevate the earnings to a robust 540 ashburns.
Tonight, with the MMT making a stop in Detroit, he'll continue to rail against the Metamucils - 10 units on Durbin
Gary Wallace
A's at Giants
Prediction: 'Under'
In the three matchups played in Oakland earlier in the season two went 'under' the number. Oakland right-hander Chad Gaudin pitched in one of those games going six innings giving up just two runs on seven hits. Gaudin is 2-0 on the road with a 1.74 ERA and is allowing less than one runner to reach base per inning. Also, Giants RHP Tim Lincecun is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA and has allowed just 0.80 runners to reach base per inning through his last five starts. Oakland almost got no-hit yesterday as Red Sox starter Curt Schilling went 8 2/3 innings before giving up a hit; the A's lost 1-0. Oakland has gone 'under' the posted 'total' in eight of their last nine games. I like tonight's game to go 'under' the 'total'.
Dennis Macklin
Astros at White Sox
Prediction: White Sox
Houston right-hander Chris Sampson has been doing his part (5-5, 3.43 ERA) but hasn't fared all that well on the road going 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA. The Astros have been notoriously bad as small road dogs (14-36 at less than a quarter) for years and that has held true in 2007 at 2-6. Pale Hose lefty John Danks is a solid No. 5 guy that generally keeps his team in it for six innings. He's 2-2 at home with respectable 3.70 ERA. Despite dropping two of three to the Cubs in their opening Interleague series, the White Sox are an amazing 31-12 over the last three years in Interleague play including 6-1 against Houston. Chicago gets a confident nod here
Dave Cokin
Take "(911) CLE Indians"
Believe the hype surrounding Homer Bailey, who debuts Friday night for the Reds. He's a legit top of the rotation star in the making, and he's been so dominating at Louisville Cincy simply had to call him up. But he's facing a very tough Cleveland lineup in his first start, and the Reds have been horrid against lefties. They'll be facing one here in Cliff Lee, who has not been good for the Tribe, but is nonetheless 3-0 vs. the Reds. I'll find plenty of spots to use Bailey but not here. The Indians should simply be laying a bigger price in this game, and so the value and my play is on the Cleveland side.
Jim Feist
Take "(927) OAK Athletics"
You may not be be that familiar with Oakland pitcher Chad Gaudin, but he's a terrific young hurler. He's 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA. San Fran limps home after a long road trip that went badly. The Giants are 0-2 in rookie starter Tim Lincecum's last two starts, giving up 14 runs. Oakland is No. 1 in pitching in the AL and has a winning record as an underdog. Play the A's!
Friday Horse Racing Spots
SPOT PLAYS
For Friday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (4th) Crimson Whisper, 8-1
(9th) Galloping Home, 7-2
Belmont Park (8th) Eastern Crown, 3-1
(5th) Sun Shower, 3-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Clever Dame, 5-1
(8th) Knight Shine, 4-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Katie O'Ready, 4-1
(9th) Bay Talk, 3-1
Charles Town (3rd) Santana Moon, 8-1
(10th) Kris the Dreamer, 3-1
Churchill Downs (6th) Paw Prints, 7-2
(9th) Sisyphus, 3-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Enduring Flight, 8-1
(6th) Tougher'n Owljuice, 4-1
Evangeline Downs (4th) Sheikh Barker, 9-2
(5th) Katamite, 6-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Hay Prince, 6-1
(6th) Pegasus Thunder, 6-1
Golden Gate Fields (4th) Red Wagon, 6-1
(5th) Savannahs Boy, 4-1
Hollywood Park (1st) Blake's Passion, 7-2
(2nd) Forest Melody, 3-1
Indiana Downs (5th) O So Magic, 3-1
(6th) Jenny's Gold, 8-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Landri's Boy, 5-1
(9th) Windy Lou, 4-1
Louisiana Downs (7th) Dana Dune, 3-1
(10th) Garbu's Bow, 8-1
Monmouth Park (2nd) Silver King, 3-1
(7th) Blondie's Halos, 3-1
Mountaineer (3rd) Quiverwithdelight, 3-1
(5th) Sainted Colony, 4-1
Penn National (4th) Peace and Love (Ire), 3-1
(8th) La Ray, 5-1
Pimlico (2nd) Hannah's Moon, 5-1
(3rd) Lovable Rogue, 5-1
Prairie Meadows (4th) Sharon's Riches, 3-1
(9th) Luckywannabe, 3-1
River Downs (1st) Isle of Hope, 4-1
(3rd) Triflin Woman, 5-1
Thistledown (10th) Diamond Laur, 7-2
(12th) Heart That's True, 3-1
Woodbine (5th) Ice Berlin, 8-1
(6th) Dancer's Fan, 6-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HILL PRINCE S. (G3), 10TH-BEL, $100,000, 3YO, 1MT, 5:40 P.M. EDT, 6-8
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 DISTORTED REALITY PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 116
2 STORM IN MAY KAPLAN WILLIAM A LEYVA J C 118
3 MARCAVELLY MOTT WILLIAM I PRADO E S 120
4 ROYAL WAR ACADEMY SANDERS JAMIE GOMEZ G K 116
5 REPTILIAN SMARTS RITVO TIMOTHY COA E M 116
6 CODEWORD (IRE) TERRANOVA JOHN P II CASTELLANO J J 116
7 BELIEVEINMENOW BOND HAROLD JAMES LUZZI M J 120
MARCAVELLY (Johannesburg) is the horse to beat in Friday's $100,000 Hill Prince S. (G3) at Belmont Park. A turf stakes winner at two, the Bill Mott-trained colt opened his sophomore campaign with a sharp 3 1/2-length score in the Transylvania S. (G3) at Keeneland two starts back. In the Crown Royal American Turf S. (G3) last time, the bay raced in a menacing position throughout but lacked the necessary closing punch, finishing fourth by 1 1/2 lengths as the 5-2 favorite. Marcavelly has worked steadily since then, including a four-furlong bullet move in :47 at Belmont, and he appears very capable of rebounding from his first unplaced effort, especially since he's dropping in class here. Regular rider Edgar Prado returns to the saddle, and Marcavelly rates top billing over his five rivals in the one-mile turf test.
DISTORTED REALITY (Distorted Humor) broke his maiden over the turf at Gulfstream Park in early March and captured an allowance race next out at Keeneland. He finished a respectable fifth when making his stakes debut in the Crown Royal American Turf, and the Todd Pletcher pupil owns room for further improvement. Distorted Reality has earned BRIS Late Pace ratings of 112 and 111 in his last two starts, but there isn't much speed in the Hill Prince. We'll tab him to complete a chalky exacta.
CODEWORD (Ire) (Dansili [GB]) exits a solid runner-up finish over Belmont's turf in a May 20 allowance, and that performance marked a significant turnaround from his first two starts in the United States. The John Terranova trainee is eligible to carry that form forward with a minor placing here.
STORM IN MAY (Tiger Ridge) owns a respectable turf mark (6-2-0-4) and earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a runner-up effort behind Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Arkansas Derby (G2). However, the gray colt got drubbed at Churchill, finishing 16th, and we question how he'll respond in this spot. Storm in May does own some speed, though, and he could possibly hold for a minor award.
REPTILIAN SMARTS (Include) doesn't own the most promising pedigree for his turf debut, but the Tim Ritvo charge owns respectable form, winning two straight events over the inner track before finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial S. (G1). We'll just watch to see how he handles this test. ROYAL WAR ACADEMY (Royal Academy) has shown little in two starts since breaking his maiden. We can't recommend his chances.
BELIEVEINMENOW (Tiznow) is entered for the main-track only, and rain isn't in the forecast.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-MARCAVELLY
2nd-DISTORTED REALITY
3rd-CODEWORD (Ire)
Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
2:55PM
Race 1 -
2 RING THE REGISTER, a hard luck son of Horse Chestnut, who has encountered trouble in three consecutive turf races here, stretches out to a mile after steadying on the first turn and finishing fourth vs. similar at 7 1/2 furlongs. 1 SOUND CHECK, beaten 2 1/2 lengths on the turf vs. $40K claimers on May 6, drops into this "two-lifetime" affair after failing to show much on a sealed track listed as 'good'. 3 MASSASOIT, 2 for 3 in the money on this turf course, returns after posting competitive speed figures when hitting the board in 2 of 4 starts vs. first-level allowance runners at Tampa. 5 DUG IN gets needed class relief after failing to earn a check in three consecutive turf races vs. first-level allowance competition. The gelding, a sharp winner vs. $62.5K maidens at Gulfstream, is spotted perfectly today.
2-1-3-5
Race 2 -
7 SKIFF'S IMAGE finds an ideal spot to step up the competition after finishing second in front of next-out winner Rhapsody In Purple in a $25K maiden test at the distance. 1 NINA'S GIFT is stepping up with Lasix added after rallying 4-wide to finish third vs. $20K maidens at Tampa. 2 RUNNAWAYTINA cuts back to a sprint distance on the dirt after showing early interest and fading when blinkers were added for her recent outing vs. $32K maidens at a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. Trainer Dan Hurtak has hot jock Eduardo Nunez handling the always entertaining turf-to-dirt move.
7-1-2
Race 3 -
1 PLACIDO won for the seventh time in 18 local turf races when using his speed to score at this level and distance last out (18-7-2-1). Trainer Phil Gleaves has Abel Castellano Jr. going for two in a row. 2 DEAD RED, third behind Placido at this level on May 4, renews the rivalry after stalking the pace and weakening to finish fourth in the $50K Reappeal last out. 3 CASTLE CONCERT is turning back to a sprint distance after finishing a willing fourth in a 1-mile $16K optional claimer won by Bargain Barry, who is on the also eligible list today. 6 SHEIKH will face winners after a couple of interesting 5-furlong maiden sprints in which he was disqualified from second and placed fourth on the turf vs. special weight competition on May 13, and first by a neck vs. $40K types on the dirt last out.
1-2-3-6
Race 4 -
6 REGAL ADVANTAGE will face winners after a solid local return at the distance in which she drew off to defeat bottom level maidens by almost 5 lengths. Trainer Ken Decker, 2 for 4 at the meeting thus far, has jockey Roger Rengifo going for two in a row. 1 FAVORITE BABY, in an entry with 1A REXSON'S TOUR, stretches out a tad after stalking the pace and tiring to finish third vs. similar at a mile & 70 yards. Trainer Barry Rose keeps it light with 5-pound apprentice David Cardoso. 2 SNAPPY BLUE second behind Regal Advantage on May 13, stretches out after drawing clear late to defeat $40K maidens in a 5-furlong affair moved to the main track.
6-1-2
Race 5 -
7 EL BANK ROBBER, who won the $75K Ga. Oaks at this distance last May, stretches out after posting the best last-race speed figure (91) when finishing second in the 5-furlong $50K Cool Air. Trainer Marty Wolfson, 23% with the sprint-to-route angle, has Abel Castellano Jr. in the saddle. 5 GOLDEN BALLADO is stepping up after leading every step of the way to defeat $16K optional claimers by 2 lengths. Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia has 10-pound apprentice Luis Colon atop the speedy daughter of Dance The Ballado. 2 BLUE ANGEL flew to an early lead, was outmaneuvered, but came again to defeat "two-lifetime" allowance foes with a nifty late move. Eduardo Nunez is at the controls again. 10 DIAMOND DINA merits serious consideration after sandwiching a pair of turf victories at the distance with a troubled trip (steadied twice) in the 2007 $75K Ga. Oaks on May 5.
7-5-2-10
Race 6 -
4 MORETHANCLEVER is turning back slightly after stalking the pace and finishing a distant second behind explosive Grenade Hill at a mile and a sixteenth last out. 5 COCHRAN looks like a poster child for the bounce/rebound angle after following his bottom level maiden score with a chase-and-fade performance, from a tough outside post (10), vs. this caliber of competition last out. 2 FRISKY FLYER will stretch out around two turns after showing speed and fading vs. similar in a pair of sprint races. The gelding should be a pace factor at a mile & 70 yards.
4-5-2
Race 7 -
2 CASA MIMATY will face winners at a mile after recovering from a stumbling start to break her maiden at a mile and a sixteenth by 12-plus lengths. 3 JESSICA IS BACK is stretching out around two turns after dueling from start-to-finish and getting beat only a neck vs. this caliber of competition at seven-eighths of a mile. 1 CRANBERRY ISLES is stretching out to a mile after responding to the addition of blinkers with an almost 8-length score vs. $25K "two-lifetime" claimers at 7 furlongs. Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia, 2 for 7 (29%) with a limited sampling of horses winning back-to-back races, has Roimes Chirinos trying for two in a row.
2-3-1
Race 8 -
3 HONORED COUNTRY drops to the $25K level, and turns back to 6 furlongs after disputing the pace and fading to finish fifth vs. $32K maidens at seven-eighths of a mile, which was his first race in almost 11 months. Trainer Tim Hills, 29% with horses making the second start after a lengthy layoff, has Elvis Trujillo in the saddle. 5 E'SACRAFTYBOY is cutting back to three-quarters of a mile after posing the best last-race speed figure (64) when finishing fourth vs. $32K maidens at 7 furlongs. 2 KNIGHT STRIKE is stepping up the competition after boring out on the backstretch & turn and still managing to finish third behind Zion Train, who came back to defeat $10K "two-lifetime" claimers on Monday (Race 3).
3-5-2
Race 9 -
7 CHISPAZO is turning back to a mile (5-2-2-1) after defeating similar here at 6 1/2 furlongs and a mile & 70 yards, respectively. Trainer Bill White has Elvis Trujillo going for three in a row on the 123-pound topweight. 5 HOLIDAY MOMENT is turning back to his best distance (10-3-0-3) after just getting nipped at the wire by Chispazo when both carried 120 pounds at mile & 70 yards last out. 6 SNAZZY LEON is back on his favorite racing surface (21-4-2-0) after winning 1 of 4 races vs. similar quality at Gulfstream.
7-5-6
Race 10 -
4 ROAD TO DAMASCUS drops to the bottom of the maiden scale after stalking the action 5-wide and finishing fourth vs. $16K maidens at a mile & 70 yards. 2 MISTER MEADOWLARK can be a major pace factor when stretching out around two turns after showing speed and tiring in a pair of sprints vs. similar opposition. Trainer Frances Gogas, 3 for 9 at the meeting, has Jose Rivera II handling the stretchout. 5 TURN THE SCREW is hoping to show more after bumping at the start and finishing fifth vs. similar, which was his first try on the dirt after four races on the turf.
BEST BET: RACE 5 - EL BANK ROBBER
LONG SHOT: RACE 3 - SHEIKH
4-2-5
__________________
Hollywood
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Friday, June 8
RACE ONE
BLAKE'S PASSION is ready to collect his diploma in the third start of his comeback for Bobby Frankel and Joe Talamo. He has enough tactical speed to drop right in behind the leaders and prove best in the run home. DART RIVER was second against better at Santa Anita, but has been off for two months and returns at a reduced price. A bit of a suspicious pattern. DR. MOHRBACHER cost $300,000 as a juvenile and makes his debut with a $40,000 price on his head. Either he's got major physical problems or he simply can't run.
RACE TWO
OUTRA RAFAELA can give a sweep of the early Daily Double to Frankel. She's been fourth in both starts while crying for turf and a distance of ground. She had the misfortune of running into first time starting monster Saucy Officer last time out. FOREST MELODY showed surprising speed against repeat winner Glorified in April. She'll be better served by a waiting ride today. LIKE A STAR will be piloted by Talamo, who was aboard the top choice last time. This one is proven on the grass and a victory would come as no surprise.
RACE THREE
BRANDI'S STARLITE was claimed by Bob Hess in March, dropped and won in April and now double drops again off that victory. Did she spring a leak or is Hess just playing equine poker. Caution is advised. JIMMIE PONG wasted a pair of super trips in her last two starts. Still she figures for a big piece of the pie at this basement level. RIVER LANE ran terrible as the favorite and was claimed by Jeff Mullins, who drops her and adds blinkers. There are far too many questions to make a serious wager in this race.
RACE FOUR
MARIN COUNTY was used hard to battle for the lead before weakening in deep stretch in his first Cushion experience. This is his third start and he should be ready to run his best race. He's also shows a sharp half mile work since his last race. BOSTON DIRECT is an interesting possibility. He split the field in his first start in more than a year and now switches to Nakatani. His races last year make him a solid fit. MILADY'S PRIDE was claimed by Steve Knapp in March and immediately went downhill. She now drops to the cellar and all is probably not right.
RACE FIVE
IZA GENERAL is a real professional and comes off two victories, one at Santa Anita and one locally. If he can somehow work out a trip from the outside slot, he can turn the hat trick. YES MASTER held on bravely to turn back similar over the hillside course one race back before being pitted against the far superior Hewitts last time out. The shorter trip and weaker company make him the one to fear most. BILLS PAID has been paying out jackpot-like returns to his backers. He shocked $32,000 taggers down the hill April 7, paying a whopping $126 then came back two races later to pop at $30 locally.
RACE SIX
NO NAME JUST GAME was never worse than second in four Bay Area starts in 2006. She ships south with a new trainer (Greg Gilchrist) and seems perfectly placed for a comeback score. All she has to do is stay within range of REMEMBER MAGGIE early. 'MAGGIE is very fast but has a tendency to weaken late. Her best hope is to gun from the barrier, open up and hold on. SUM MISTAKE also journeys from northern California. She was claimed by top trainer Frank Monteleone from her last race at Golden Gate. She also has two handicapping angles going for her; route-to-sprint and turf-to-Cushion.
RACE SEVENTH
QUEEN'S IMAGE was a bang-up second May 18 in his first since Del Mar. The Mullins trainee put away his pace rival then gave way grudgingly to talented import Masterly. If 'IMAGE moves forward off the race, or even repeats it, he'll be one tough customer. TEN DOWNING STREET ran one of his better races last time out but had to settle for the place, as he usually does. He's been runner-up in six of his 17 starts. RED STATE must be considered, however he was unlucky to draw inside his two main rivals.
RACE EIGHT
GRECIAN SPUR takes a class tumble after an encouraging third May 4. It looks as though his connections just want to win a race with this one. ONE SOCK WONDER may be tailing off after a few close calls earlier in the year. This is the weakest field he's ever encountered and gets a 10-pound apprentice allowance with Tom Foley aboard. RIVER REBEL flashed improved zip in his first start for Jeff Mullins and further improvement can be expected tonight. This will be his first start without blinkers, which may settle him down.
Best Bet-NO NAME JUST GAME (6)
__________________
Belmont Park
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Silence Dogood (8th race)
First Race
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1. Elninodemisojos 2. Irish Brian 3. Here to Please
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ELNINODEMISOJOS has as many victories at a mile as the rest of the field combined; missed fourth by a nose and a neck first time over the track in a non-winners of three claimer, now lands in a soft open claimer where five rivals are eligible for non-winners of two. IRISH BRIAN ran a lifetime top figure in first start up from Florida going six furlongs; question is whether she can maintain that level stretching back out to a one-turn mile. HERE TO PLEASE continues to drop in class, and seems a long way from the form he was in during the winter, when a lengthy winner for $50K.
Second Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. New York Dixie 2. Papa's Kara 3. Cherna
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW YORK DIXIE is a tough read, because her first seven starts took place either on turf, Polytrack, or in the slop; may be able to overtake New York-breds. PAPA'S KARA broke from the far outside post and raced evenly when last seen Feb. 19, a day that produced seven front-running winners; some sharp works for return. CHERNA rallied wide to be a clear second in debut vs. open maidens with a 10-pound apprentice; switches to an Eclipse-winning rider.
Third Race
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1. Lauren's Tizzy 2. Borrowing Base 3. Gattinara
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LAUREN'S TIZZY overcame a stumbling start to get up for first-level allowance win in return from layoff of more than 13 months; on a bounce-back pattern following slight regression, should benefit from having a race over the track. BORROWING BASE and GATTINARA took turns beating each other last year, and have been sidelined since finishing fifth behind Mama Theresa in different route races back in March. Both fillies have won previously off workouts, and Gattinara has the potential to control the pace in this match-up.
Fourth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Eastern Crown 2. Unbridled Danger 3. Red Crusader
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EASTERN CROWN was a game winner at this level when claimed two starts back, and appears well spotted after an even try on the grass for new connections; beaten by RED CRUSADER and DADDY JOE earlier this year, but on sealed muddy tracks he seemed to dislike. UNBRIDLED DANGER will also appreciate getting back on dirt, after showing little for the second time on turf; drops to new low, has been training well at Saratoga. Red Crusader has been the pace-call leader in nine of last 10 starts, usually while under hard pressure; may be able to shake loose against this group.
Fifth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Lost in the Dark 2. Pretty Face Fay 3. Innovator
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOST IN THE DARK ships in from Tampa Bay Downs for a trainer who sent out Double Down Dixie ($5.70) first time back from that track last week, also with Alan Garcia aboard; in tight while tiring after forcing pace at a mile second out. PRETTY FACE FAY had the lead at some point in all three mile races in Florida, so shortening up to six furlongs seems like a good idea; claimed, returns for good layoff trainer. INNOVATOR rallied for second last out behind Dressed to Win, who was on a clear lead throughout; good try this course & distance last fall when third at a big price.
Sixth Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Clay's Run 2. Them There Eyes 3. Tishmeister
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLAY'S RUN returned from a layoff off a series of mile workouts, added Lasix, and battled for the lead throughout when a nose short; faces probable loss of ground early, susceptible to a bounce. THEM THERE EYES was 58-1 when switched to the turf last fall, finished fast to miss by a head; eligible to improve off that 2-year-old figure, seems ready to fire after a pair of good five-furlong drills. TISHMEISTER set the pace and held well to be a clear second behind a 2-5 winner in first try over this course; all three grass figures in New York - at Belmont, Aqueduct and Saratoga - resulted in her best figures.
Seventh Race
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Phone Home 2. My Dynomite 3. Stonewood
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHONE HOME showed considerable promise winning both starts last November, including allowance score over Landofopportunity, who subsequently won a first-level allowance and a $65k overnight stake; field's lone 3-year-old has trained well, and is a good candidate to better his juvenile figures. MY DYNOMITE basically had a paid public workout when a handy winner at Finger Lakes - his fifth win from six lifetime starts; capable of stalking, drew favorably outside a potential pace dispute among STONEWOOD, ROB'S BOY MAT and DAZA.
Eighth Race
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1. Silence Dogood 2. Out of Time 3. Suzy Smart
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SILENCE DOGOOD faced eventual graded turf stakes winner Sharp Susan first time on the grass last fall; unable to hold stretch leads in two comeback starts, but the first was vs. Black Eyed Susan winner Panty Raid, and the latest vs. multiple stakes winner Rutherienne. OUT OF TIME was ridden out to a nose win over males in a Group 3 stake in France last year; may become more formidable in U.S. debut if she catches rain-softened footing. SUZY SMART is on promising figure pattern, after returning from a layoff to slightly exceed best number as a juvenile last fall; top-rated on the Tomlinsons for turf.
Ninth Race
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1. Grand Cayman 2. Victory for Sierra 3. Point Me to It
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GRAND CAYMAN showed improvement in back-to-back starts when switched to turf at Gulfstream, finishing close behind Miss Buddhafull, a decisive winner for $45K earlier at this meet; one of several capable of winning this wide-open event. VICTORY FOR SIERRA rallied four wide for maiden win at even money at Aqueduct, registering her third consecutive figure in the upper 60s; another performance of that quality puts her right in the thick of things first time vs. winners. POINT ME TO IT has run three races on turf going short and long, and each time recorded virtually identical figures that are good enough to contend with these. FIDDLERS PRINCESS, SKEETER GIRL, DINNERINTHEMEADOW and BEAUTY ON DECK also have a chance based on their best grass races.
Tenth Race
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1. Distorted Reality 2. Marcavelly 3. Storm in May
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DISTORTED REALITY and MARCAVELLY were noses apart in the American Turf at Churchill Downs last month, and that was the first experience on yielding turf for each of them. Distorted Reality won his first two grass starts on firm ground by open lengths, and was particularly impressive drawing away under mild urging two back. MARCAVELLY obviously figures right there, and having winning experience on this course as a 2-year-old could be a plus. A line through Duveen (who beat the top two last out) suggests STORM IN MAY has a realistic chance, as he set the pace vs. Duveen in the 1 1/8-mile Palm Beach when last on turf three races back.
__________________
The current capper in the #1 spot at the Wagerline Survivor Contest picked the Flordia Marlins for Friday.
sandmilk
member since 2/8/2003
Survivor Pick Record: 498-473-14
Friday = Florida (GOING FOR #14 IN A ROW)
wgocts
member since 9/1/2005
Survivor Pick Record: 223-189-8
Friday = WNBA Connecticut -5 (GOING FOR #10 IN A ROW)
Advisor
member since 12/30/2006
Survivor Pick Record: 8-3-0
Friday = Baltimore (GOING FOR #9 IN A ROW)
This capper went 0-3 and then won his next 8. He picks MLB dogs also
big_g
member since 6/6/2003
Survivor Pick Record: 522-531-28
Friday = WNBA Indiana (GOING FOR #9 IN A ROW)
WNBA record this year = 3-1. He lost the first WNBA game and then has won 3 WNBA games in a row
zxc
member since 2/8/2007
Survivor Pick Record: 47-40-5
Friday = WNBA Connecticut (GOING FOR #8 IN A ROW)
MrBigBuxxx
member since 11/20/2003
Survivor Pick Record: 368-297-17
Friday = White Sox (GOING FOR #8 IN A ROW)
Scott Spreitzer's 25* Interleague Blowout! -- 3-0 w/ 25* plays in 2007!
Bartolo Colon is making his first start since May 28, and he's reportedly over his bout with tendinitis. That's horrible news for the St. Louis Cardinals. I felt STL would sweep the Reds, that their hitting was coming around enough to handle Kyle Lohse and company. But they fell right back into their poor hitting form. The Cards were on a nice run, but it all came against weak opposition. Before series against Pitt, Was, Colo, Hou, and Cinci (combined 126-174), the Cards went on a 2-7 skid against SDG, LA, and Det! There's the problem. St. Louis is good enough to handle the also-rans, but no match for the big boys. The Cards are 3-14 this season against teams who are currently above .500. They've lost those games by an average of 6.12 to 3.24! Now, they face a reportedly healthy Colon, who steamed his way to a 5-0 start before losing his last two. It must be noted, he's faced the #1 (Det) & #2 (Sea twice) ranked hitting teams in his last three starts. Talk about a step-down in class tonight! Offensively, this one is no match. LAA ranks 3rd in the majors in hitting, while the Cards are 20th. The pens are almost even. But while LAA's pen was off yesterday and has thrown just nine total innings in their last five games, STL's has gone 3, 3, 5 1/3, 4, & 3 (18 1/3) innings in their team's last five games. With Kip Wells (2-10, 6.40 ERA) on the hill for the Redbirds, it's likely the pen will be involved early-on for the sixth straight game. We feel this has blowout written all over it, yet the line is cheap. I'm laying it with the Angels on Friday
Matt F@rgo (free pick--Mets/Tigers over)
REASON FOR PICK: The potent Mets offense has been held in check over their last four games, averaging just two rpg over that span but an explosion is near and this is the spot. They are averaging 5.3 rpg on the road which is second in the National League and they now get a designated hitter slot due to inter-league play. New York is hitting .283 on the road while Detroit is hitting .292 at home and the Tigers offense has been on fire, scoring nine runs or more in five of their last six games.
Jorge Sosa has been outstanding but will be facing a tough test against that red hot offense. His last two road starts have been non-quality outings including a game at Atlanta where he allowed five runs in just four innings of work. Even though the recent Tigers explosion came on all road games, Detroit has gone over in 26 of its last 37 games at home. Hitting right-handed pitching has not been a problem as the Tigers have batted .284 on the year while going 14-3 over against righties at home.
Chad Durbin is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing five runs in 5.1 innings against the Indians. He has been up and down on the season as he has posted a 4.75 ERA on the year including a 5.93 ERA in three home outings. While his pitching has been inconsistent, the run support behind him has not as Detroit is averaging 6.6 rpg in his 11 outings and has scored eight or more runs in four of his last six starts. The Mets bats are cold but can feast on Durbin.
Despite the success of Sosa, it is actually just the opposite in a solid situation. Play over where the total is 9 or more with a starting pitcher (Detroit) whose strikes out three or less batters per start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season (New York). This situation is 36-12 over (75 percent) over the last five seasons with the average runs scored being 12.1 rpg. Both offenses should explode in a game going well over the posted total. Play Over New York Mets/Detroit Tigers 1 Unit
Larry Ness' Bailout Blowout-MLB (21-6 the last 11 days / 92-42 since Opening Day!)
My Bailout Blowout is on the SD Padres at 10:05 ET. The San Diego Padres boast the best ERA in the major leagues at 2.91 but relied on its offense last night, for a 6-5 comeback win over the Dodgers. The Padres rallied for five runs in the bottom of the ninth to give them their fifth straight win and their 10 win in their last 12! A huge reason San Diego owns MLB's best ERA is a bullpen that owns a collective 2.15 ERA, almost a full run lower than the majors' 2nd-best ERA (3.03). The Padres are now 20-9 at home, the best home mark in the NL. Rookie Justin Germano takes the mound and he's been nothing short of brilliant. His first start of '07 came in Atlanta on May 8, in which he got a no-decision in a 3-2 Atlanta win. He's won all four of his starts since, posting a 1.80 ERA (includes a 2-1 win at Seattle on May 20). Backed by that bullpen, Germano will present a tough challenge for Seattle, a team with MLB's 2nd-best team BA (285). However, the Mariners' weakness is their pitching staff, one which ranks 28th out of 30 teams with a 4.84 ERA. Teams are also hitting .278 against Seattle pitching, the 4th-highest average in MLB. Miguel Batista gets the start and while the team is 7-4 in his 11 starts, let's not forget these revealing numbers. He's allowed a whopping 81 hits in 63 innings, while posting a 5.43 ERA. Too many edges here for the Padres NOT to take San Diego. Bailout Blowout on the SD Padres.
Larry Ness' 15* IL Total of the Week (52-12 TY with 15* GOW plays / 8-1 with MLB totals!)
My 15* play is on LAA/StL Over at 8:10 ET. The Angels have been one of the best teams in the majors since early May, winning 21 of 28 to open a 5 1/2-game lead in the West. They own the most home wins in MLB with 24 and have also begun to play better on the road by going 13-6 since losing eight of their first nine games away from home. Bartolo Colon got a late start because of injury but opened his season by going 5-0 with a 3.69 ERA in his first six starts (team was 5-1). However, he's allowed 21 hits and 14 ERs in his last two outings over 10.2 innings, for an ERA of 11.81! The 2005 AL Cy Young winner hasn't pitched since May 28 due to triceps tendinitis. The Cards' Kip Wells has had a dreadful first season with St Louis. He's 2-10 in 12 starts, posting a 6.40 ERA. This game sets up just perfectly for an 'over.' The Angels are playing great but Colon is more than a little shaky. Plus, even when he was "in form" this year, the Angels have gone over in SIX of his eight starts in '07. As for the Cards, they surely can't expect too much out of Wells but the team has begun hitting. Prior to last night's 5-1 loss to the Reds, St Louis had won SIX of seven games, averaging 6.29 RPG. IL Total of the Week 15* LAA/StL Over.
Larry Ness' 15* IL Underdog of the Week (52-12 or 81% winners since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the Oak A's at 10:15 ET. The Giants beat Arizona last night 5-4 (11 inn) for just their fourth win in their last 13 games! They open a three-game home series tonight, against cross-bay rivals the Oakland A's (A's took two of three in Oakland from 5/18-5/20). Rookie Tim Lincecum (2-0, 4.05) gets the start and he's coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing six runs and seven hits in 6 2-3 innings as San Francisco lost 9-8 to Philadelphia on Sunday. He had gone 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his previous four starts and will make his first appearance against Oakland. The A's counter with Chad Gaudin, who didn't record more than four wins in any of his first four seasons in the majors. However, Gaudin is 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 12 starts this year (team is 9-3), including a 5-0 (2.15) mark in his last six (team is 6-0). It's his first year as a full-time starter and his overall ERA ranks second in the AL among qualifying starters. The A's don't score a lot but with Gaudin, they don't need to. Bonds isn't hitting for SF and Lincecum is in over his head in this one. IL Underdog GOW 15* Oak A's.
Dave M@linsky (Bonus Play)
REASON FOR PICK: 4* DETROIT over NY METS
The Mets began this season with a veteran outfield corps that could rival any in the N.L., and a bullpen that could claim to be the league’s best. Getting out to a 33-17 start only re-enforced the notions as to how good they could be. But the team wearing those uniforms right now is only a shell of the group that made that early explosion, having gone 2-6 over the last eight games, all at home. Now Endy Chavez becomes the third member of that outfield corps to head to the DL, and with Shawn Green still not ready to return tonight they have to play at a tough park for outfielders with inexperienced Carlos Gomez and Ben Johnson on the corners. And then there is that bullpen.
Not only has the relief corps been ineffective of late but they have fatigue issues galore for this game. Closer Billy Wagner blew his first save of the season last night, throwing 30 pitches after being brought in earlier than usual, and that count will likely have him sitting out a night, especially after throwing 22 pitches on Tuesday as well. Key set-up men Scott Schoenweiss and Pedro Feliciano have each worked three straight days, and will not be available. Middle relievers Joe Smith and Guillermo Mota have each worked two of the last three games, which means that even if they do go the usual sharpness will not be there.
That adds up tonight because they can not necessarily count on Jorge Sosa to either pitch well (a 5.06 ERA on the road this season), or pitch very long – he averages six innings per start, but just 5.1 in his three road outings. And Sosa has to take on a Detroit offense that has rivaled any in the game recently, one that should be at a truly rare level of confidence tonight – the top four hitters in the lineup, Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez – combined for 20 hits the last two nights, with each of those four getting multiple hits in both games.
That offensive support gives Chad Durbin a comfort zone, as does returning to Comerica Park for only the second time in his last seven starts. But Durbin managed to work well through that road stretch, including gutting out some innings at Cleveland on Saturday when he did not have his best stuff, but Jim Leyland needed someone to eat innings because of a tired and wounded bullpen. Now that scenario has turned almost completely around, with Justin Verlander’s solid Wednesday outing and last night’s blowout having all key bullpen arms rested and ready, especially with Fernando Rodney healthy again.
The Tigers are a bargain here against a New York team that is priced much more on reputation and full-season results that do not really apply, as opposed to tonight’s true realities.
badmoon
member since 5/21/2007
Survivor Pick Record: 6-2-0
Friday = WNBA Indiana
This capper is 2-0 in WNBA picks.
Also, the #1 ranked WNBA capper at Wagerline picked Connecticut, Indiana, NY and Minnesota. His WNBA record = 49-19-1, which can be verified 100%.
big al
Milwaukee Brewers (Capuano) over
Texas Rangers (Tejeda)
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is LA Angels -135
doc sports
Bonus Play. #960 Take Over 9 in Cincinnati @ St. Louis (8:10 pm MLB.tv)
Two pitchers that do not bring much to the table will square off in the final game of this series between the Reds and Red Birds. Kyle Lohse is just 2-7 this year and has an E.R.A. of 4.58. He seems to pitch well but always get burned by the one big inning. His opponent is Adam Wainwright, who is just 4-4 on the year with a 5.12 E.R.A. St. Louis is starting to play better of late but the number is too big to play them, therefore the best value lies with the total.
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
Take Vijay Singh (8-1), 1/6 unit: Despite noting of above trend I'm going to start with a long hitter and note another trend. I took a look at Vijay's performances prior to majors over the last several years and saw a consistent trend of success. He doesn't play the week before the Masters and his schedule for the other three has varied, but I see success in both the week before a major and his last tournament prior to a major. For example, last year he won the Barclays Classic in this slotted week before the U.S. Open. His prep for the PGA Championship in 2005 was the Buick Open two weeks before---he won it. With the same schedule in 04, he finished T4 at the Buick Classic the week before the U.S. Open and won the Buick Open two weeks before the PGA later that summer. Again, it was his tune up for the major. The week before the PGA in 03 he finished T2. He was T4 at the Memorial two weeks before the U.S. Open that year. Vijay's a top-10 kind of guy, for sure, and the years mentioned have been his best, true, but those results are striking by any standards. Take Jose Maria Olazabal (50-1), 1/6 unit: There's still kick left in Olazabal. He's got a top-10 and four top-25s this year. He likes the competition and this is a strong field. On the week before angle, at the BellSouth before the Masters he finished T2 in 2005 and P2 in 2004. Take Tim Herron (66-1), 1/6 unit: Not sure I understand the odds given he seems to like TPC Southwind---in his last five walks in Memphis he hasn't finished out of the top-25 (best was a T3 in 04). And he's coming off a T15 at last week's Memorial
earl morgan
Friday's Bonus Play:
Minnesota (C.Silva) -1.5 +108 over Washington (J.Simontacchi), 8:10 ET
The Twins come home from a rough West Coast trip to take on the Nationals in Interleague play. The Twins have won 9 straight Interleague home games, while the Nationals have lost 11 of 15 Interleague games. Jason Simontacchi (2-4 5.61) takes the hill for Washington. He's struggled to a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. Carlos Silva (3-6 3.86) has a solid 2.53 ERA at home. Silva's problem this year is run support. Expect plenty of support tonight as the Twins roll at home
dennis macklin
MLB Houston vs. Chicago (A)
Take Chicago (A) White Sox
Houston\'s Chris Sampson has been doing his part with his 5-5 3.43 year-to-date resume but hasn\'t fared all that well on the road going 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA. The Astros have been notoriously bad small road dogs (14-36 at less than a quarter) for years and that has held true in 2007 at 2-6. The Pale Hose John Danks is a solid #5 guy that generally keeps you in it for six innings. He\'s 2-2 at home with respectable 3.70 ERA. Despite dropping two of three to the Cubs in their opening Interleague series, the White Sox are an amazing 31-12 over the L3 years in IL play including 6-1 against Houston. Chicago gets confident nod here.
cappersaccess
(Fri) MLB Cubs Braves 120 Braves
(Fri) MLB W. Sox Astros 120 W. Sox
Total 4 u
.....
Top PLays
NYM OVER 9-
Clev OVER 10-
LAA UNDER 9-
....
Reg Plays
TB OVER 9-
Tx OVER 10
Oak OVER 8
Tor OVER 8
ben lee eckstein
twins
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
INTERLEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (35-23) at Detroit (34-25)
Finally back home following a lengthy road trip, the Tigers are set to entertain the Mets in a three-game interleague series at Comerica Park. Chad Durbin (5-1, 4.75 ERA) will take the ball for Detroit against New York’s Jorge Sosa (5-1, 3.22).
The Tigers went 5-5 on their just concluded 10-game road trip to Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Texas, though they did close by winning four of their last five, including last night’s 11-4 rout of the Rangers. Still, going back to May 25, Jim Leyland’s club is just 5-8.
The Mets are mired in a 2-6 slump, and they’ve now lost four straight games for the first time this season following Thursday’s gut-wrenching 6-3, 10-inning loss to the Phillies.
These teams last met in 2004, when the Mets swept a three-game series at Shea Stadium. Last month in interleague play, New York took two of three from the Yankees at home, while the Tigers swept a three-game home series from the Cardinals.
Sosa has been phenomenal for New York since being recalled from Triple-A, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts, winning all five of those contests. But he’s 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA on the road, which includes his only poor start of the season, when he allowed five runs in four innings in an 8-1 loss at Atlanta.
Durbin is coming off his worst effort of the season, as he surrendered five runs on eight hits and three walks in Saturday’s 9-5 loss at Cleveland. Prior to that outing, the righthander had surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of seven starts.
Durbin is 1-0 despite a beefy 5.93 ERA in three starts at Comerica Park.
For Detroit, the over is on runs of 20-7-3 overall and 26-9-2 at home (18-6-2 this season). On the flip side, the Mets are on a 13-4-1 "under" streak, and they had stayed low in six consecutive games before last night’s extra-innings affair against Philly nudged over the total.adv none
Boston (38-21) at Arizona (36-25)
The Red Sox continue their stay on the West Coast when they open a three-game interleague series in Arizona. Boston’s Josh Beckett (8-0, 2.95) is scheduled to start opposite Doug Davis (4-6, 3.05) in tonight’s series opener.
The Red Sox snapped a season-high four-game losing skid with Thursday’s 1-0 win in Oakland, as Curt Schilling came within one out of a no-hitter. Despite that victory, Boston is still just 2-6 in its last eight games. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad has been very impressive on the road, going 19-11.
Arizona had a three-game winning streak halted in last night’s 5-4 loss to the Giants in 11 innings. That defeat aside, the Snakes are still on an impressive 11-2 run, including 6-1 at home.
Beckett gave up four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings in Sunday’s start against the Yankees, but he didn’t factor in the decision as the Red Sox fell, 6-5. It was the first time in Beckett’s 10 starts this year that Boston failed to win.
Beckett is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA on the road, beating the Blue Jays, Orioles and Royals by the combined score of 21-5.
Going back to his days with the Marlins, Beckett has faced the Diamondbacks four times in his career, going 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA at Chase Field.
Davis continued his solid season on Sunday in New York, holding the Mets to a single run on six hits over 7 2/3 innings en route to a 4-1 victory. Davis, who has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in all but three of his 12 starts, is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, lasting at least seven innings in all three.
Arizona is 4-1 when Davis pitches at home, with the lefty posting a 3.19 ERA in those five starts. Also, in five career appearances (four starts) against the Red Sox, Davis is 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA, most recently facing them in 2003.
The over is 6-3-1 when Beckett pitches, but the under is 9-3
ats adv under
Ethan Law has a 1 unit total on the over 10 1/2 runs in the Phillies/Royals game
Larry Cook
3* on LA Dodgers -203 (Listing Penny) Brad Penny is the best pitcher in the National League and the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young award as of right now. Penny is 7-1 on the season with a 2.37 ERA. The Dodgers are 8-1
Free mlb Pick from Rocky Atkinson
FREE MLB PLAY FRIDAY (111-81 59% run with freebies) Washington @ Minnesota 8:10 PM EST Play On: 1* Minnesota -1 1/2 +120 (Simontachi/Silva) Listed Minnesota is 5-1 this year when playing with a day off.
Doc's Sports
AFL
5 Columbus
4 Under 123- in San Jose/Utah
MLB
4 Padres
2 SF
Vegas Experts
Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, June 8th, 9:40 P.M. EDT
Boston suddenly not winning or scoring either. The Red Sox have lost six-of-eight and scored just 7 runs in dropping three-of-four at Oakland. Now they face an Arizona club that has won 11-of-13. BOSTON is 12-20 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons and 39-44 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 28-20 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. DAVIS is 10-2 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Play on: Arizona
Phillies/Royals OVER 10.5
Scotty Spreitzer
25* Interleague Blowout
Angels
Larry Ness
15*Underdog of the Week
Oakland A's
15* IL Total of the Week
LAA/Stl Over
Bailout Blowout-MLB
SD Padres
Vegas Experts
Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, June 8th, 9:40 P.M. EDT
Boston suddenly not winning or scoring either. The Red Sox have lost six-of-eight and scored just 7 runs in dropping three-of-four at Oakland. Now they face an Arizona club that has won 11-of-13. BOSTON is 12-20 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons and 39-44 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 28-20 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. DAVIS is 10-2 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Play on: Arizona
Mighty ! Quinn
Cubs
Hondo
June 8, 2007 -- Hondo, who's riding that Met Misery Train, com pleted a sweep with the Phillies last night out at Flushing's Lame Duck Dump to elevate the earnings to a robust 540 ashburns.
Tonight, with the MMT making a stop in Detroit, he'll continue to rail against the Metamucils - 10 units on Durbin
Gary Wallace
A's at Giants
Prediction: 'Under'
In the three matchups played in Oakland earlier in the season two went 'under' the number. Oakland right-hander Chad Gaudin pitched in one of those games going six innings giving up just two runs on seven hits. Gaudin is 2-0 on the road with a 1.74 ERA and is allowing less than one runner to reach base per inning. Also, Giants RHP Tim Lincecun is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA and has allowed just 0.80 runners to reach base per inning through his last five starts. Oakland almost got no-hit yesterday as Red Sox starter Curt Schilling went 8 2/3 innings before giving up a hit; the A's lost 1-0. Oakland has gone 'under' the posted 'total' in eight of their last nine games. I like tonight's game to go 'under' the 'total'.
Dennis Macklin
Astros at White Sox
Prediction: White Sox
Houston right-hander Chris Sampson has been doing his part (5-5, 3.43 ERA) but hasn't fared all that well on the road going 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA. The Astros have been notoriously bad as small road dogs (14-36 at less than a quarter) for years and that has held true in 2007 at 2-6. Pale Hose lefty John Danks is a solid No. 5 guy that generally keeps his team in it for six innings. He's 2-2 at home with respectable 3.70 ERA. Despite dropping two of three to the Cubs in their opening Interleague series, the White Sox are an amazing 31-12 over the last three years in Interleague play including 6-1 against Houston. Chicago gets a confident nod here
Dave Cokin
Take "(911) CLE Indians"
Believe the hype surrounding Homer Bailey, who debuts Friday night for the Reds. He's a legit top of the rotation star in the making, and he's been so dominating at Louisville Cincy simply had to call him up. But he's facing a very tough Cleveland lineup in his first start, and the Reds have been horrid against lefties. They'll be facing one here in Cliff Lee, who has not been good for the Tribe, but is nonetheless 3-0 vs. the Reds. I'll find plenty of spots to use Bailey but not here. The Indians should simply be laying a bigger price in this game, and so the value and my play is on the Cleveland side.
Jim Feist
Take "(927) OAK Athletics"
You may not be be that familiar with Oakland pitcher Chad Gaudin, but he's a terrific young hurler. He's 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA. San Fran limps home after a long road trip that went badly. The Giants are 0-2 in rookie starter Tim Lincecum's last two starts, giving up 14 runs. Oakland is No. 1 in pitching in the AL and has a winning record as an underdog. Play the A's!
Friday Horse Racing Spots
SPOT PLAYS
For Friday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (4th) Crimson Whisper, 8-1
(9th) Galloping Home, 7-2
Belmont Park (8th) Eastern Crown, 3-1
(5th) Sun Shower, 3-1
Calder Race Course (4th) Clever Dame, 5-1
(8th) Knight Shine, 4-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Katie O'Ready, 4-1
(9th) Bay Talk, 3-1
Charles Town (3rd) Santana Moon, 8-1
(10th) Kris the Dreamer, 3-1
Churchill Downs (6th) Paw Prints, 7-2
(9th) Sisyphus, 3-1
Emerald Downs (2nd) Enduring Flight, 8-1
(6th) Tougher'n Owljuice, 4-1
Evangeline Downs (4th) Sheikh Barker, 9-2
(5th) Katamite, 6-1
Finger Lakes (2nd) Hay Prince, 6-1
(6th) Pegasus Thunder, 6-1
Golden Gate Fields (4th) Red Wagon, 6-1
(5th) Savannahs Boy, 4-1
Hollywood Park (1st) Blake's Passion, 7-2
(2nd) Forest Melody, 3-1
Indiana Downs (5th) O So Magic, 3-1
(6th) Jenny's Gold, 8-1
Lone Star Park (4th) Landri's Boy, 5-1
(9th) Windy Lou, 4-1
Louisiana Downs (7th) Dana Dune, 3-1
(10th) Garbu's Bow, 8-1
Monmouth Park (2nd) Silver King, 3-1
(7th) Blondie's Halos, 3-1
Mountaineer (3rd) Quiverwithdelight, 3-1
(5th) Sainted Colony, 4-1
Penn National (4th) Peace and Love (Ire), 3-1
(8th) La Ray, 5-1
Pimlico (2nd) Hannah's Moon, 5-1
(3rd) Lovable Rogue, 5-1
Prairie Meadows (4th) Sharon's Riches, 3-1
(9th) Luckywannabe, 3-1
River Downs (1st) Isle of Hope, 4-1
(3rd) Triflin Woman, 5-1
Thistledown (10th) Diamond Laur, 7-2
(12th) Heart That's True, 3-1
Woodbine (5th) Ice Berlin, 8-1
(6th) Dancer's Fan, 6-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HILL PRINCE S. (G3), 10TH-BEL, $100,000, 3YO, 1MT, 5:40 P.M. EDT, 6-8
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 DISTORTED REALITY PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 116
2 STORM IN MAY KAPLAN WILLIAM A LEYVA J C 118
3 MARCAVELLY MOTT WILLIAM I PRADO E S 120
4 ROYAL WAR ACADEMY SANDERS JAMIE GOMEZ G K 116
5 REPTILIAN SMARTS RITVO TIMOTHY COA E M 116
6 CODEWORD (IRE) TERRANOVA JOHN P II CASTELLANO J J 116
7 BELIEVEINMENOW BOND HAROLD JAMES LUZZI M J 120
MARCAVELLY (Johannesburg) is the horse to beat in Friday's $100,000 Hill Prince S. (G3) at Belmont Park. A turf stakes winner at two, the Bill Mott-trained colt opened his sophomore campaign with a sharp 3 1/2-length score in the Transylvania S. (G3) at Keeneland two starts back. In the Crown Royal American Turf S. (G3) last time, the bay raced in a menacing position throughout but lacked the necessary closing punch, finishing fourth by 1 1/2 lengths as the 5-2 favorite. Marcavelly has worked steadily since then, including a four-furlong bullet move in :47 at Belmont, and he appears very capable of rebounding from his first unplaced effort, especially since he's dropping in class here. Regular rider Edgar Prado returns to the saddle, and Marcavelly rates top billing over his five rivals in the one-mile turf test.
DISTORTED REALITY (Distorted Humor) broke his maiden over the turf at Gulfstream Park in early March and captured an allowance race next out at Keeneland. He finished a respectable fifth when making his stakes debut in the Crown Royal American Turf, and the Todd Pletcher pupil owns room for further improvement. Distorted Reality has earned BRIS Late Pace ratings of 112 and 111 in his last two starts, but there isn't much speed in the Hill Prince. We'll tab him to complete a chalky exacta.
CODEWORD (Ire) (Dansili [GB]) exits a solid runner-up finish over Belmont's turf in a May 20 allowance, and that performance marked a significant turnaround from his first two starts in the United States. The John Terranova trainee is eligible to carry that form forward with a minor placing here.
STORM IN MAY (Tiger Ridge) owns a respectable turf mark (6-2-0-4) and earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a runner-up effort behind Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Arkansas Derby (G2). However, the gray colt got drubbed at Churchill, finishing 16th, and we question how he'll respond in this spot. Storm in May does own some speed, though, and he could possibly hold for a minor award.
REPTILIAN SMARTS (Include) doesn't own the most promising pedigree for his turf debut, but the Tim Ritvo charge owns respectable form, winning two straight events over the inner track before finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial S. (G1). We'll just watch to see how he handles this test. ROYAL WAR ACADEMY (Royal Academy) has shown little in two starts since breaking his maiden. We can't recommend his chances.
BELIEVEINMENOW (Tiznow) is entered for the main-track only, and rain isn't in the forecast.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-MARCAVELLY
2nd-DISTORTED REALITY
3rd-CODEWORD (Ire)
Calder
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
2:55PM
Race 1 -
2 RING THE REGISTER, a hard luck son of Horse Chestnut, who has encountered trouble in three consecutive turf races here, stretches out to a mile after steadying on the first turn and finishing fourth vs. similar at 7 1/2 furlongs. 1 SOUND CHECK, beaten 2 1/2 lengths on the turf vs. $40K claimers on May 6, drops into this "two-lifetime" affair after failing to show much on a sealed track listed as 'good'. 3 MASSASOIT, 2 for 3 in the money on this turf course, returns after posting competitive speed figures when hitting the board in 2 of 4 starts vs. first-level allowance runners at Tampa. 5 DUG IN gets needed class relief after failing to earn a check in three consecutive turf races vs. first-level allowance competition. The gelding, a sharp winner vs. $62.5K maidens at Gulfstream, is spotted perfectly today.
2-1-3-5
Race 2 -
7 SKIFF'S IMAGE finds an ideal spot to step up the competition after finishing second in front of next-out winner Rhapsody In Purple in a $25K maiden test at the distance. 1 NINA'S GIFT is stepping up with Lasix added after rallying 4-wide to finish third vs. $20K maidens at Tampa. 2 RUNNAWAYTINA cuts back to a sprint distance on the dirt after showing early interest and fading when blinkers were added for her recent outing vs. $32K maidens at a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. Trainer Dan Hurtak has hot jock Eduardo Nunez handling the always entertaining turf-to-dirt move.
7-1-2
Race 3 -
1 PLACIDO won for the seventh time in 18 local turf races when using his speed to score at this level and distance last out (18-7-2-1). Trainer Phil Gleaves has Abel Castellano Jr. going for two in a row. 2 DEAD RED, third behind Placido at this level on May 4, renews the rivalry after stalking the pace and weakening to finish fourth in the $50K Reappeal last out. 3 CASTLE CONCERT is turning back to a sprint distance after finishing a willing fourth in a 1-mile $16K optional claimer won by Bargain Barry, who is on the also eligible list today. 6 SHEIKH will face winners after a couple of interesting 5-furlong maiden sprints in which he was disqualified from second and placed fourth on the turf vs. special weight competition on May 13, and first by a neck vs. $40K types on the dirt last out.
1-2-3-6
Race 4 -
6 REGAL ADVANTAGE will face winners after a solid local return at the distance in which she drew off to defeat bottom level maidens by almost 5 lengths. Trainer Ken Decker, 2 for 4 at the meeting thus far, has jockey Roger Rengifo going for two in a row. 1 FAVORITE BABY, in an entry with 1A REXSON'S TOUR, stretches out a tad after stalking the pace and tiring to finish third vs. similar at a mile & 70 yards. Trainer Barry Rose keeps it light with 5-pound apprentice David Cardoso. 2 SNAPPY BLUE second behind Regal Advantage on May 13, stretches out after drawing clear late to defeat $40K maidens in a 5-furlong affair moved to the main track.
6-1-2
Race 5 -
7 EL BANK ROBBER, who won the $75K Ga. Oaks at this distance last May, stretches out after posting the best last-race speed figure (91) when finishing second in the 5-furlong $50K Cool Air. Trainer Marty Wolfson, 23% with the sprint-to-route angle, has Abel Castellano Jr. in the saddle. 5 GOLDEN BALLADO is stepping up after leading every step of the way to defeat $16K optional claimers by 2 lengths. Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia has 10-pound apprentice Luis Colon atop the speedy daughter of Dance The Ballado. 2 BLUE ANGEL flew to an early lead, was outmaneuvered, but came again to defeat "two-lifetime" allowance foes with a nifty late move. Eduardo Nunez is at the controls again. 10 DIAMOND DINA merits serious consideration after sandwiching a pair of turf victories at the distance with a troubled trip (steadied twice) in the 2007 $75K Ga. Oaks on May 5.
7-5-2-10
Race 6 -
4 MORETHANCLEVER is turning back slightly after stalking the pace and finishing a distant second behind explosive Grenade Hill at a mile and a sixteenth last out. 5 COCHRAN looks like a poster child for the bounce/rebound angle after following his bottom level maiden score with a chase-and-fade performance, from a tough outside post (10), vs. this caliber of competition last out. 2 FRISKY FLYER will stretch out around two turns after showing speed and fading vs. similar in a pair of sprint races. The gelding should be a pace factor at a mile & 70 yards.
4-5-2
Race 7 -
2 CASA MIMATY will face winners at a mile after recovering from a stumbling start to break her maiden at a mile and a sixteenth by 12-plus lengths. 3 JESSICA IS BACK is stretching out around two turns after dueling from start-to-finish and getting beat only a neck vs. this caliber of competition at seven-eighths of a mile. 1 CRANBERRY ISLES is stretching out to a mile after responding to the addition of blinkers with an almost 8-length score vs. $25K "two-lifetime" claimers at 7 furlongs. Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia, 2 for 7 (29%) with a limited sampling of horses winning back-to-back races, has Roimes Chirinos trying for two in a row.
2-3-1
Race 8 -
3 HONORED COUNTRY drops to the $25K level, and turns back to 6 furlongs after disputing the pace and fading to finish fifth vs. $32K maidens at seven-eighths of a mile, which was his first race in almost 11 months. Trainer Tim Hills, 29% with horses making the second start after a lengthy layoff, has Elvis Trujillo in the saddle. 5 E'SACRAFTYBOY is cutting back to three-quarters of a mile after posing the best last-race speed figure (64) when finishing fourth vs. $32K maidens at 7 furlongs. 2 KNIGHT STRIKE is stepping up the competition after boring out on the backstretch & turn and still managing to finish third behind Zion Train, who came back to defeat $10K "two-lifetime" claimers on Monday (Race 3).
3-5-2
Race 9 -
7 CHISPAZO is turning back to a mile (5-2-2-1) after defeating similar here at 6 1/2 furlongs and a mile & 70 yards, respectively. Trainer Bill White has Elvis Trujillo going for three in a row on the 123-pound topweight. 5 HOLIDAY MOMENT is turning back to his best distance (10-3-0-3) after just getting nipped at the wire by Chispazo when both carried 120 pounds at mile & 70 yards last out. 6 SNAZZY LEON is back on his favorite racing surface (21-4-2-0) after winning 1 of 4 races vs. similar quality at Gulfstream.
7-5-6
Race 10 -
4 ROAD TO DAMASCUS drops to the bottom of the maiden scale after stalking the action 5-wide and finishing fourth vs. $16K maidens at a mile & 70 yards. 2 MISTER MEADOWLARK can be a major pace factor when stretching out around two turns after showing speed and tiring in a pair of sprints vs. similar opposition. Trainer Frances Gogas, 3 for 9 at the meeting, has Jose Rivera II handling the stretchout. 5 TURN THE SCREW is hoping to show more after bumping at the start and finishing fifth vs. similar, which was his first try on the dirt after four races on the turf.
BEST BET: RACE 5 - EL BANK ROBBER
LONG SHOT: RACE 3 - SHEIKH
4-2-5
__________________
Hollywood
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Friday, June 8
RACE ONE
BLAKE'S PASSION is ready to collect his diploma in the third start of his comeback for Bobby Frankel and Joe Talamo. He has enough tactical speed to drop right in behind the leaders and prove best in the run home. DART RIVER was second against better at Santa Anita, but has been off for two months and returns at a reduced price. A bit of a suspicious pattern. DR. MOHRBACHER cost $300,000 as a juvenile and makes his debut with a $40,000 price on his head. Either he's got major physical problems or he simply can't run.
RACE TWO
OUTRA RAFAELA can give a sweep of the early Daily Double to Frankel. She's been fourth in both starts while crying for turf and a distance of ground. She had the misfortune of running into first time starting monster Saucy Officer last time out. FOREST MELODY showed surprising speed against repeat winner Glorified in April. She'll be better served by a waiting ride today. LIKE A STAR will be piloted by Talamo, who was aboard the top choice last time. This one is proven on the grass and a victory would come as no surprise.
RACE THREE
BRANDI'S STARLITE was claimed by Bob Hess in March, dropped and won in April and now double drops again off that victory. Did she spring a leak or is Hess just playing equine poker. Caution is advised. JIMMIE PONG wasted a pair of super trips in her last two starts. Still she figures for a big piece of the pie at this basement level. RIVER LANE ran terrible as the favorite and was claimed by Jeff Mullins, who drops her and adds blinkers. There are far too many questions to make a serious wager in this race.
RACE FOUR
MARIN COUNTY was used hard to battle for the lead before weakening in deep stretch in his first Cushion experience. This is his third start and he should be ready to run his best race. He's also shows a sharp half mile work since his last race. BOSTON DIRECT is an interesting possibility. He split the field in his first start in more than a year and now switches to Nakatani. His races last year make him a solid fit. MILADY'S PRIDE was claimed by Steve Knapp in March and immediately went downhill. She now drops to the cellar and all is probably not right.
RACE FIVE
IZA GENERAL is a real professional and comes off two victories, one at Santa Anita and one locally. If he can somehow work out a trip from the outside slot, he can turn the hat trick. YES MASTER held on bravely to turn back similar over the hillside course one race back before being pitted against the far superior Hewitts last time out. The shorter trip and weaker company make him the one to fear most. BILLS PAID has been paying out jackpot-like returns to his backers. He shocked $32,000 taggers down the hill April 7, paying a whopping $126 then came back two races later to pop at $30 locally.
RACE SIX
NO NAME JUST GAME was never worse than second in four Bay Area starts in 2006. She ships south with a new trainer (Greg Gilchrist) and seems perfectly placed for a comeback score. All she has to do is stay within range of REMEMBER MAGGIE early. 'MAGGIE is very fast but has a tendency to weaken late. Her best hope is to gun from the barrier, open up and hold on. SUM MISTAKE also journeys from northern California. She was claimed by top trainer Frank Monteleone from her last race at Golden Gate. She also has two handicapping angles going for her; route-to-sprint and turf-to-Cushion.
RACE SEVENTH
QUEEN'S IMAGE was a bang-up second May 18 in his first since Del Mar. The Mullins trainee put away his pace rival then gave way grudgingly to talented import Masterly. If 'IMAGE moves forward off the race, or even repeats it, he'll be one tough customer. TEN DOWNING STREET ran one of his better races last time out but had to settle for the place, as he usually does. He's been runner-up in six of his 17 starts. RED STATE must be considered, however he was unlucky to draw inside his two main rivals.
RACE EIGHT
GRECIAN SPUR takes a class tumble after an encouraging third May 4. It looks as though his connections just want to win a race with this one. ONE SOCK WONDER may be tailing off after a few close calls earlier in the year. This is the weakest field he's ever encountered and gets a 10-pound apprentice allowance with Tom Foley aboard. RIVER REBEL flashed improved zip in his first start for Jeff Mullins and further improvement can be expected tonight. This will be his first start without blinkers, which may settle him down.
Best Bet-NO NAME JUST GAME (6)
__________________
Belmont Park
By Dave Litfin
BEST BET: Silence Dogood (8th race)
First Race
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1. Elninodemisojos 2. Irish Brian 3. Here to Please
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ELNINODEMISOJOS has as many victories at a mile as the rest of the field combined; missed fourth by a nose and a neck first time over the track in a non-winners of three claimer, now lands in a soft open claimer where five rivals are eligible for non-winners of two. IRISH BRIAN ran a lifetime top figure in first start up from Florida going six furlongs; question is whether she can maintain that level stretching back out to a one-turn mile. HERE TO PLEASE continues to drop in class, and seems a long way from the form he was in during the winter, when a lengthy winner for $50K.
Second Race
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1. New York Dixie 2. Papa's Kara 3. Cherna
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NEW YORK DIXIE is a tough read, because her first seven starts took place either on turf, Polytrack, or in the slop; may be able to overtake New York-breds. PAPA'S KARA broke from the far outside post and raced evenly when last seen Feb. 19, a day that produced seven front-running winners; some sharp works for return. CHERNA rallied wide to be a clear second in debut vs. open maidens with a 10-pound apprentice; switches to an Eclipse-winning rider.
Third Race
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1. Lauren's Tizzy 2. Borrowing Base 3. Gattinara
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LAUREN'S TIZZY overcame a stumbling start to get up for first-level allowance win in return from layoff of more than 13 months; on a bounce-back pattern following slight regression, should benefit from having a race over the track. BORROWING BASE and GATTINARA took turns beating each other last year, and have been sidelined since finishing fifth behind Mama Theresa in different route races back in March. Both fillies have won previously off workouts, and Gattinara has the potential to control the pace in this match-up.
Fourth Race
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1. Eastern Crown 2. Unbridled Danger 3. Red Crusader
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EASTERN CROWN was a game winner at this level when claimed two starts back, and appears well spotted after an even try on the grass for new connections; beaten by RED CRUSADER and DADDY JOE earlier this year, but on sealed muddy tracks he seemed to dislike. UNBRIDLED DANGER will also appreciate getting back on dirt, after showing little for the second time on turf; drops to new low, has been training well at Saratoga. Red Crusader has been the pace-call leader in nine of last 10 starts, usually while under hard pressure; may be able to shake loose against this group.
Fifth Race
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1. Lost in the Dark 2. Pretty Face Fay 3. Innovator
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LOST IN THE DARK ships in from Tampa Bay Downs for a trainer who sent out Double Down Dixie ($5.70) first time back from that track last week, also with Alan Garcia aboard; in tight while tiring after forcing pace at a mile second out. PRETTY FACE FAY had the lead at some point in all three mile races in Florida, so shortening up to six furlongs seems like a good idea; claimed, returns for good layoff trainer. INNOVATOR rallied for second last out behind Dressed to Win, who was on a clear lead throughout; good try this course & distance last fall when third at a big price.
Sixth Race
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1. Clay's Run 2. Them There Eyes 3. Tishmeister
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CLAY'S RUN returned from a layoff off a series of mile workouts, added Lasix, and battled for the lead throughout when a nose short; faces probable loss of ground early, susceptible to a bounce. THEM THERE EYES was 58-1 when switched to the turf last fall, finished fast to miss by a head; eligible to improve off that 2-year-old figure, seems ready to fire after a pair of good five-furlong drills. TISHMEISTER set the pace and held well to be a clear second behind a 2-5 winner in first try over this course; all three grass figures in New York - at Belmont, Aqueduct and Saratoga - resulted in her best figures.
Seventh Race
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1. Phone Home 2. My Dynomite 3. Stonewood
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PHONE HOME showed considerable promise winning both starts last November, including allowance score over Landofopportunity, who subsequently won a first-level allowance and a $65k overnight stake; field's lone 3-year-old has trained well, and is a good candidate to better his juvenile figures. MY DYNOMITE basically had a paid public workout when a handy winner at Finger Lakes - his fifth win from six lifetime starts; capable of stalking, drew favorably outside a potential pace dispute among STONEWOOD, ROB'S BOY MAT and DAZA.
Eighth Race
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1. Silence Dogood 2. Out of Time 3. Suzy Smart
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SILENCE DOGOOD faced eventual graded turf stakes winner Sharp Susan first time on the grass last fall; unable to hold stretch leads in two comeback starts, but the first was vs. Black Eyed Susan winner Panty Raid, and the latest vs. multiple stakes winner Rutherienne. OUT OF TIME was ridden out to a nose win over males in a Group 3 stake in France last year; may become more formidable in U.S. debut if she catches rain-softened footing. SUZY SMART is on promising figure pattern, after returning from a layoff to slightly exceed best number as a juvenile last fall; top-rated on the Tomlinsons for turf.
Ninth Race
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1. Grand Cayman 2. Victory for Sierra 3. Point Me to It
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GRAND CAYMAN showed improvement in back-to-back starts when switched to turf at Gulfstream, finishing close behind Miss Buddhafull, a decisive winner for $45K earlier at this meet; one of several capable of winning this wide-open event. VICTORY FOR SIERRA rallied four wide for maiden win at even money at Aqueduct, registering her third consecutive figure in the upper 60s; another performance of that quality puts her right in the thick of things first time vs. winners. POINT ME TO IT has run three races on turf going short and long, and each time recorded virtually identical figures that are good enough to contend with these. FIDDLERS PRINCESS, SKEETER GIRL, DINNERINTHEMEADOW and BEAUTY ON DECK also have a chance based on their best grass races.
Tenth Race
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1. Distorted Reality 2. Marcavelly 3. Storm in May
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DISTORTED REALITY and MARCAVELLY were noses apart in the American Turf at Churchill Downs last month, and that was the first experience on yielding turf for each of them. Distorted Reality won his first two grass starts on firm ground by open lengths, and was particularly impressive drawing away under mild urging two back. MARCAVELLY obviously figures right there, and having winning experience on this course as a 2-year-old could be a plus. A line through Duveen (who beat the top two last out) suggests STORM IN MAY has a realistic chance, as he set the pace vs. Duveen in the 1 1/8-mile Palm Beach when last on turf three races back.
__________________
The current capper in the #1 spot at the Wagerline Survivor Contest picked the Flordia Marlins for Friday.
sandmilk
member since 2/8/2003
Survivor Pick Record: 498-473-14
Friday = Florida (GOING FOR #14 IN A ROW)
wgocts
member since 9/1/2005
Survivor Pick Record: 223-189-8
Friday = WNBA Connecticut -5 (GOING FOR #10 IN A ROW)
Advisor
member since 12/30/2006
Survivor Pick Record: 8-3-0
Friday = Baltimore (GOING FOR #9 IN A ROW)
This capper went 0-3 and then won his next 8. He picks MLB dogs also
big_g
member since 6/6/2003
Survivor Pick Record: 522-531-28
Friday = WNBA Indiana (GOING FOR #9 IN A ROW)
WNBA record this year = 3-1. He lost the first WNBA game and then has won 3 WNBA games in a row
zxc
member since 2/8/2007
Survivor Pick Record: 47-40-5
Friday = WNBA Connecticut (GOING FOR #8 IN A ROW)
MrBigBuxxx
member since 11/20/2003
Survivor Pick Record: 368-297-17
Friday = White Sox (GOING FOR #8 IN A ROW)
Scott Spreitzer's 25* Interleague Blowout! -- 3-0 w/ 25* plays in 2007!
Bartolo Colon is making his first start since May 28, and he's reportedly over his bout with tendinitis. That's horrible news for the St. Louis Cardinals. I felt STL would sweep the Reds, that their hitting was coming around enough to handle Kyle Lohse and company. But they fell right back into their poor hitting form. The Cards were on a nice run, but it all came against weak opposition. Before series against Pitt, Was, Colo, Hou, and Cinci (combined 126-174), the Cards went on a 2-7 skid against SDG, LA, and Det! There's the problem. St. Louis is good enough to handle the also-rans, but no match for the big boys. The Cards are 3-14 this season against teams who are currently above .500. They've lost those games by an average of 6.12 to 3.24! Now, they face a reportedly healthy Colon, who steamed his way to a 5-0 start before losing his last two. It must be noted, he's faced the #1 (Det) & #2 (Sea twice) ranked hitting teams in his last three starts. Talk about a step-down in class tonight! Offensively, this one is no match. LAA ranks 3rd in the majors in hitting, while the Cards are 20th. The pens are almost even. But while LAA's pen was off yesterday and has thrown just nine total innings in their last five games, STL's has gone 3, 3, 5 1/3, 4, & 3 (18 1/3) innings in their team's last five games. With Kip Wells (2-10, 6.40 ERA) on the hill for the Redbirds, it's likely the pen will be involved early-on for the sixth straight game. We feel this has blowout written all over it, yet the line is cheap. I'm laying it with the Angels on Friday
Matt F@rgo (free pick--Mets/Tigers over)
REASON FOR PICK: The potent Mets offense has been held in check over their last four games, averaging just two rpg over that span but an explosion is near and this is the spot. They are averaging 5.3 rpg on the road which is second in the National League and they now get a designated hitter slot due to inter-league play. New York is hitting .283 on the road while Detroit is hitting .292 at home and the Tigers offense has been on fire, scoring nine runs or more in five of their last six games.
Jorge Sosa has been outstanding but will be facing a tough test against that red hot offense. His last two road starts have been non-quality outings including a game at Atlanta where he allowed five runs in just four innings of work. Even though the recent Tigers explosion came on all road games, Detroit has gone over in 26 of its last 37 games at home. Hitting right-handed pitching has not been a problem as the Tigers have batted .284 on the year while going 14-3 over against righties at home.
Chad Durbin is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing five runs in 5.1 innings against the Indians. He has been up and down on the season as he has posted a 4.75 ERA on the year including a 5.93 ERA in three home outings. While his pitching has been inconsistent, the run support behind him has not as Detroit is averaging 6.6 rpg in his 11 outings and has scored eight or more runs in four of his last six starts. The Mets bats are cold but can feast on Durbin.
Despite the success of Sosa, it is actually just the opposite in a solid situation. Play over where the total is 9 or more with a starting pitcher (Detroit) whose strikes out three or less batters per start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season (New York). This situation is 36-12 over (75 percent) over the last five seasons with the average runs scored being 12.1 rpg. Both offenses should explode in a game going well over the posted total. Play Over New York Mets/Detroit Tigers 1 Unit
Larry Ness' Bailout Blowout-MLB (21-6 the last 11 days / 92-42 since Opening Day!)
My Bailout Blowout is on the SD Padres at 10:05 ET. The San Diego Padres boast the best ERA in the major leagues at 2.91 but relied on its offense last night, for a 6-5 comeback win over the Dodgers. The Padres rallied for five runs in the bottom of the ninth to give them their fifth straight win and their 10 win in their last 12! A huge reason San Diego owns MLB's best ERA is a bullpen that owns a collective 2.15 ERA, almost a full run lower than the majors' 2nd-best ERA (3.03). The Padres are now 20-9 at home, the best home mark in the NL. Rookie Justin Germano takes the mound and he's been nothing short of brilliant. His first start of '07 came in Atlanta on May 8, in which he got a no-decision in a 3-2 Atlanta win. He's won all four of his starts since, posting a 1.80 ERA (includes a 2-1 win at Seattle on May 20). Backed by that bullpen, Germano will present a tough challenge for Seattle, a team with MLB's 2nd-best team BA (285). However, the Mariners' weakness is their pitching staff, one which ranks 28th out of 30 teams with a 4.84 ERA. Teams are also hitting .278 against Seattle pitching, the 4th-highest average in MLB. Miguel Batista gets the start and while the team is 7-4 in his 11 starts, let's not forget these revealing numbers. He's allowed a whopping 81 hits in 63 innings, while posting a 5.43 ERA. Too many edges here for the Padres NOT to take San Diego. Bailout Blowout on the SD Padres.
Larry Ness' 15* IL Total of the Week (52-12 TY with 15* GOW plays / 8-1 with MLB totals!)
My 15* play is on LAA/StL Over at 8:10 ET. The Angels have been one of the best teams in the majors since early May, winning 21 of 28 to open a 5 1/2-game lead in the West. They own the most home wins in MLB with 24 and have also begun to play better on the road by going 13-6 since losing eight of their first nine games away from home. Bartolo Colon got a late start because of injury but opened his season by going 5-0 with a 3.69 ERA in his first six starts (team was 5-1). However, he's allowed 21 hits and 14 ERs in his last two outings over 10.2 innings, for an ERA of 11.81! The 2005 AL Cy Young winner hasn't pitched since May 28 due to triceps tendinitis. The Cards' Kip Wells has had a dreadful first season with St Louis. He's 2-10 in 12 starts, posting a 6.40 ERA. This game sets up just perfectly for an 'over.' The Angels are playing great but Colon is more than a little shaky. Plus, even when he was "in form" this year, the Angels have gone over in SIX of his eight starts in '07. As for the Cards, they surely can't expect too much out of Wells but the team has begun hitting. Prior to last night's 5-1 loss to the Reds, St Louis had won SIX of seven games, averaging 6.29 RPG. IL Total of the Week 15* LAA/StL Over.
Larry Ness' 15* IL Underdog of the Week (52-12 or 81% winners since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the Oak A's at 10:15 ET. The Giants beat Arizona last night 5-4 (11 inn) for just their fourth win in their last 13 games! They open a three-game home series tonight, against cross-bay rivals the Oakland A's (A's took two of three in Oakland from 5/18-5/20). Rookie Tim Lincecum (2-0, 4.05) gets the start and he's coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing six runs and seven hits in 6 2-3 innings as San Francisco lost 9-8 to Philadelphia on Sunday. He had gone 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his previous four starts and will make his first appearance against Oakland. The A's counter with Chad Gaudin, who didn't record more than four wins in any of his first four seasons in the majors. However, Gaudin is 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 12 starts this year (team is 9-3), including a 5-0 (2.15) mark in his last six (team is 6-0). It's his first year as a full-time starter and his overall ERA ranks second in the AL among qualifying starters. The A's don't score a lot but with Gaudin, they don't need to. Bonds isn't hitting for SF and Lincecum is in over his head in this one. IL Underdog GOW 15* Oak A's.
Dave M@linsky (Bonus Play)
REASON FOR PICK: 4* DETROIT over NY METS
The Mets began this season with a veteran outfield corps that could rival any in the N.L., and a bullpen that could claim to be the league’s best. Getting out to a 33-17 start only re-enforced the notions as to how good they could be. But the team wearing those uniforms right now is only a shell of the group that made that early explosion, having gone 2-6 over the last eight games, all at home. Now Endy Chavez becomes the third member of that outfield corps to head to the DL, and with Shawn Green still not ready to return tonight they have to play at a tough park for outfielders with inexperienced Carlos Gomez and Ben Johnson on the corners. And then there is that bullpen.
Not only has the relief corps been ineffective of late but they have fatigue issues galore for this game. Closer Billy Wagner blew his first save of the season last night, throwing 30 pitches after being brought in earlier than usual, and that count will likely have him sitting out a night, especially after throwing 22 pitches on Tuesday as well. Key set-up men Scott Schoenweiss and Pedro Feliciano have each worked three straight days, and will not be available. Middle relievers Joe Smith and Guillermo Mota have each worked two of the last three games, which means that even if they do go the usual sharpness will not be there.
That adds up tonight because they can not necessarily count on Jorge Sosa to either pitch well (a 5.06 ERA on the road this season), or pitch very long – he averages six innings per start, but just 5.1 in his three road outings. And Sosa has to take on a Detroit offense that has rivaled any in the game recently, one that should be at a truly rare level of confidence tonight – the top four hitters in the lineup, Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez – combined for 20 hits the last two nights, with each of those four getting multiple hits in both games.
That offensive support gives Chad Durbin a comfort zone, as does returning to Comerica Park for only the second time in his last seven starts. But Durbin managed to work well through that road stretch, including gutting out some innings at Cleveland on Saturday when he did not have his best stuff, but Jim Leyland needed someone to eat innings because of a tired and wounded bullpen. Now that scenario has turned almost completely around, with Justin Verlander’s solid Wednesday outing and last night’s blowout having all key bullpen arms rested and ready, especially with Fernando Rodney healthy again.
The Tigers are a bargain here against a New York team that is priced much more on reputation and full-season results that do not really apply, as opposed to tonight’s true realities.
badmoon
member since 5/21/2007
Survivor Pick Record: 6-2-0
Friday = WNBA Indiana
This capper is 2-0 in WNBA picks.
Also, the #1 ranked WNBA capper at Wagerline picked Connecticut, Indiana, NY and Minnesota. His WNBA record = 49-19-1, which can be verified 100%.
big al
Milwaukee Brewers (Capuano) over
Texas Rangers (Tejeda)
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is LA Angels -135
doc sports
Bonus Play. #960 Take Over 9 in Cincinnati @ St. Louis (8:10 pm MLB.tv)
Two pitchers that do not bring much to the table will square off in the final game of this series between the Reds and Red Birds. Kyle Lohse is just 2-7 this year and has an E.R.A. of 4.58. He seems to pitch well but always get burned by the one big inning. His opponent is Adam Wainwright, who is just 4-4 on the year with a 5.12 E.R.A. St. Louis is starting to play better of late but the number is too big to play them, therefore the best value lies with the total.
Brian Gabrielle
Bonus Play: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
Take Vijay Singh (8-1), 1/6 unit: Despite noting of above trend I'm going to start with a long hitter and note another trend. I took a look at Vijay's performances prior to majors over the last several years and saw a consistent trend of success. He doesn't play the week before the Masters and his schedule for the other three has varied, but I see success in both the week before a major and his last tournament prior to a major. For example, last year he won the Barclays Classic in this slotted week before the U.S. Open. His prep for the PGA Championship in 2005 was the Buick Open two weeks before---he won it. With the same schedule in 04, he finished T4 at the Buick Classic the week before the U.S. Open and won the Buick Open two weeks before the PGA later that summer. Again, it was his tune up for the major. The week before the PGA in 03 he finished T2. He was T4 at the Memorial two weeks before the U.S. Open that year. Vijay's a top-10 kind of guy, for sure, and the years mentioned have been his best, true, but those results are striking by any standards. Take Jose Maria Olazabal (50-1), 1/6 unit: There's still kick left in Olazabal. He's got a top-10 and four top-25s this year. He likes the competition and this is a strong field. On the week before angle, at the BellSouth before the Masters he finished T2 in 2005 and P2 in 2004. Take Tim Herron (66-1), 1/6 unit: Not sure I understand the odds given he seems to like TPC Southwind---in his last five walks in Memphis he hasn't finished out of the top-25 (best was a T3 in 04). And he's coming off a T15 at last week's Memorial
earl morgan
Friday's Bonus Play:
Minnesota (C.Silva) -1.5 +108 over Washington (J.Simontacchi), 8:10 ET
The Twins come home from a rough West Coast trip to take on the Nationals in Interleague play. The Twins have won 9 straight Interleague home games, while the Nationals have lost 11 of 15 Interleague games. Jason Simontacchi (2-4 5.61) takes the hill for Washington. He's struggled to a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. Carlos Silva (3-6 3.86) has a solid 2.53 ERA at home. Silva's problem this year is run support. Expect plenty of support tonight as the Twins roll at home
dennis macklin
MLB Houston vs. Chicago (A)
Take Chicago (A) White Sox
Houston\'s Chris Sampson has been doing his part with his 5-5 3.43 year-to-date resume but hasn\'t fared all that well on the road going 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA. The Astros have been notoriously bad small road dogs (14-36 at less than a quarter) for years and that has held true in 2007 at 2-6. The Pale Hose John Danks is a solid #5 guy that generally keeps you in it for six innings. He\'s 2-2 at home with respectable 3.70 ERA. Despite dropping two of three to the Cubs in their opening Interleague series, the White Sox are an amazing 31-12 over the L3 years in IL play including 6-1 against Houston. Chicago gets confident nod here.
cappersaccess
(Fri) MLB Cubs Braves 120 Braves
(Fri) MLB W. Sox Astros 120 W. Sox
Total 4 u
.....
Top PLays
NYM OVER 9-
Clev OVER 10-
LAA UNDER 9-
....
Reg Plays
TB OVER 9-
Tx OVER 10
Oak OVER 8
Tor OVER 8
ben lee eckstein
twins
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
INTERLEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (35-23) at Detroit (34-25)
Finally back home following a lengthy road trip, the Tigers are set to entertain the Mets in a three-game interleague series at Comerica Park. Chad Durbin (5-1, 4.75 ERA) will take the ball for Detroit against New York’s Jorge Sosa (5-1, 3.22).
The Tigers went 5-5 on their just concluded 10-game road trip to Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Texas, though they did close by winning four of their last five, including last night’s 11-4 rout of the Rangers. Still, going back to May 25, Jim Leyland’s club is just 5-8.
The Mets are mired in a 2-6 slump, and they’ve now lost four straight games for the first time this season following Thursday’s gut-wrenching 6-3, 10-inning loss to the Phillies.
These teams last met in 2004, when the Mets swept a three-game series at Shea Stadium. Last month in interleague play, New York took two of three from the Yankees at home, while the Tigers swept a three-game home series from the Cardinals.
Sosa has been phenomenal for New York since being recalled from Triple-A, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts, winning all five of those contests. But he’s 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA on the road, which includes his only poor start of the season, when he allowed five runs in four innings in an 8-1 loss at Atlanta.
Durbin is coming off his worst effort of the season, as he surrendered five runs on eight hits and three walks in Saturday’s 9-5 loss at Cleveland. Prior to that outing, the righthander had surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of seven starts.
Durbin is 1-0 despite a beefy 5.93 ERA in three starts at Comerica Park.
For Detroit, the over is on runs of 20-7-3 overall and 26-9-2 at home (18-6-2 this season). On the flip side, the Mets are on a 13-4-1 "under" streak, and they had stayed low in six consecutive games before last night’s extra-innings affair against Philly nudged over the total.adv none
Boston (38-21) at Arizona (36-25)
The Red Sox continue their stay on the West Coast when they open a three-game interleague series in Arizona. Boston’s Josh Beckett (8-0, 2.95) is scheduled to start opposite Doug Davis (4-6, 3.05) in tonight’s series opener.
The Red Sox snapped a season-high four-game losing skid with Thursday’s 1-0 win in Oakland, as Curt Schilling came within one out of a no-hitter. Despite that victory, Boston is still just 2-6 in its last eight games. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad has been very impressive on the road, going 19-11.
Arizona had a three-game winning streak halted in last night’s 5-4 loss to the Giants in 11 innings. That defeat aside, the Snakes are still on an impressive 11-2 run, including 6-1 at home.
Beckett gave up four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings in Sunday’s start against the Yankees, but he didn’t factor in the decision as the Red Sox fell, 6-5. It was the first time in Beckett’s 10 starts this year that Boston failed to win.
Beckett is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA on the road, beating the Blue Jays, Orioles and Royals by the combined score of 21-5.
Going back to his days with the Marlins, Beckett has faced the Diamondbacks four times in his career, going 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA at Chase Field.
Davis continued his solid season on Sunday in New York, holding the Mets to a single run on six hits over 7 2/3 innings en route to a 4-1 victory. Davis, who has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in all but three of his 12 starts, is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, lasting at least seven innings in all three.
Arizona is 4-1 when Davis pitches at home, with the lefty posting a 3.19 ERA in those five starts. Also, in five career appearances (four starts) against the Red Sox, Davis is 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA, most recently facing them in 2003.
The over is 6-3-1 when Beckett pitches, but the under is 9-3
ats adv under
Ethan Law has a 1 unit total on the over 10 1/2 runs in the Phillies/Royals game
Larry Cook
3* on LA Dodgers -203 (Listing Penny) Brad Penny is the best pitcher in the National League and the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young award as of right now. Penny is 7-1 on the season with a 2.37 ERA. The Dodgers are 8-1
Free mlb Pick from Rocky Atkinson
FREE MLB PLAY FRIDAY (111-81 59% run with freebies) Washington @ Minnesota 8:10 PM EST Play On: 1* Minnesota -1 1/2 +120 (Simontachi/Silva) Listed Minnesota is 5-1 this year when playing with a day off.
Doc's Sports
AFL
5 Columbus
4 Under 123- in San Jose/Utah
MLB
4 Padres
2 SF
Vegas Experts
Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, June 8th, 9:40 P.M. EDT
Boston suddenly not winning or scoring either. The Red Sox have lost six-of-eight and scored just 7 runs in dropping three-of-four at Oakland. Now they face an Arizona club that has won 11-of-13. BOSTON is 12-20 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons and 39-44 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 28-20 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. DAVIS is 10-2 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Play on: Arizona
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