Frank Rosenthal
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
953 NATS+150 SB
961 PADRES-110 SB
966 DODGERS-170 SB
970 BOSOX-110 SB+
UNDER 9.5 SB+
980 ANGELS-140 SB
Fixerwins
2* Atlanta
2* Over 9 Ariz/Sf
charlie <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->friday april 20 , 2007
mlb. cincinnati-125 (500*)
mlb. texas-115 (30*)
nhl. nashville-125 (20*)
nhl. tampa bay+190 (20*)
mlb. atlanta-115 (10*)
mlb. toronto+110 (10*) Bonus Play
Mike Rose
Orlando Predators
-9.0 (-105) *OPINION* Interesting match-up here as the NY Dragons head south to take on the Preds in sunny FLA. Orlando has made it a habit of knocking off these guys in the franchises history as they hold a 7-1 series lead, and they’ll be looking to avenge their first ever loss to the Dragons from last season. Now, Orlando has been hit or miss with every passing week, but they came off their “Bye” week last weekend and took it to their most hated rivals for the second time this season. This clubs only going to get better once they get guys back off IR, and they’ll no doubt be a pain in the rear for anyone they face in the post-season. The Preds have a flat out nasty defense anchored by DL Greg White who ranks second in the AFL with five sacks. That’s not good for NY QB Rohan Davey who still holds onto the ball like he’s falling back in an NFL pocket. Look for the Preds to get plenty of pressure up front, and force the Dragons offense into a number of mistakes. Orlando QB Shane Stafford is coming off a solid performance vs. Tampa, and should have no problem dissecting this NY defense that’s allowing 300 YPG and has a DEF YPP average of 5.1. The league average is 5.4 and its easy enough already to score in this league, so don’t look for many NY stops in this one. The Preds pulled back to .500 last week, and I don’t foresee them letting up in this spot against a team they’ve handled with ease in their history. Lay the points with the Preds as they hand the Dragons their 6th SU loss and fifth ATS loss of the season.
Mike Rose
Colorado Crush
-9.5 (-110) *OPINION* The Crush continue to get way too much love from the oddsmakers, and many will be all over the Gladiators and the heaping load of points once again this week. Colorado was extremely lucky to get past a very bad New York club last week. It took an INT by Chris Angel (his 3rd of the game) to seal the deal in the closing seconds after they had surrendered a 19-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Vegas QB Brian Jones had an exceptional debut in Georgia last week where he threw for 366 yards and 8 TDs against a decent but penetrable Force stop unit. They almost pulled off the enormous upset, and should head into the Pepsi Center the most confident they’ve been all season long. This franchise is going nowhere fast, everybody knows that, but now they have an official AFL QB at the helm that they’re eager to build around. That being said, I believe their bubble bursts in a big way this week. Colorado looks to be improving on a week-to-week basis. WR Brad Pyatt is turning into the perfect compliment for stud OS Damain Harrell to work with, and the Colorado defense finally seems to be coming around. This is a crucial game for them with three straight on the road against divisional foes up ahead, so I expect HC Mike Dailey and his staff to get this team to play to their fullest this evening. JQP is expecting another big effort from the Glads since this number has been bought down from the opening number of 12’, and it looks like we might be able to get an even more favorable number
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MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
953 NATS+150 SB
961 PADRES-110 SB
966 DODGERS-170 SB
970 BOSOX-110 SB+
UNDER 9.5 SB+
980 ANGELS-140 SB
Fixerwins
2* Atlanta
2* Over 9 Ariz/Sf
charlie <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->friday april 20 , 2007
mlb. cincinnati-125 (500*)
mlb. texas-115 (30*)
nhl. nashville-125 (20*)
nhl. tampa bay+190 (20*)
mlb. atlanta-115 (10*)
mlb. toronto+110 (10*) Bonus Play
Mike Rose
Orlando Predators
-9.0 (-105) *OPINION* Interesting match-up here as the NY Dragons head south to take on the Preds in sunny FLA. Orlando has made it a habit of knocking off these guys in the franchises history as they hold a 7-1 series lead, and they’ll be looking to avenge their first ever loss to the Dragons from last season. Now, Orlando has been hit or miss with every passing week, but they came off their “Bye” week last weekend and took it to their most hated rivals for the second time this season. This clubs only going to get better once they get guys back off IR, and they’ll no doubt be a pain in the rear for anyone they face in the post-season. The Preds have a flat out nasty defense anchored by DL Greg White who ranks second in the AFL with five sacks. That’s not good for NY QB Rohan Davey who still holds onto the ball like he’s falling back in an NFL pocket. Look for the Preds to get plenty of pressure up front, and force the Dragons offense into a number of mistakes. Orlando QB Shane Stafford is coming off a solid performance vs. Tampa, and should have no problem dissecting this NY defense that’s allowing 300 YPG and has a DEF YPP average of 5.1. The league average is 5.4 and its easy enough already to score in this league, so don’t look for many NY stops in this one. The Preds pulled back to .500 last week, and I don’t foresee them letting up in this spot against a team they’ve handled with ease in their history. Lay the points with the Preds as they hand the Dragons their 6th SU loss and fifth ATS loss of the season.
Mike Rose
Colorado Crush
-9.5 (-110) *OPINION* The Crush continue to get way too much love from the oddsmakers, and many will be all over the Gladiators and the heaping load of points once again this week. Colorado was extremely lucky to get past a very bad New York club last week. It took an INT by Chris Angel (his 3rd of the game) to seal the deal in the closing seconds after they had surrendered a 19-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Vegas QB Brian Jones had an exceptional debut in Georgia last week where he threw for 366 yards and 8 TDs against a decent but penetrable Force stop unit. They almost pulled off the enormous upset, and should head into the Pepsi Center the most confident they’ve been all season long. This franchise is going nowhere fast, everybody knows that, but now they have an official AFL QB at the helm that they’re eager to build around. That being said, I believe their bubble bursts in a big way this week. Colorado looks to be improving on a week-to-week basis. WR Brad Pyatt is turning into the perfect compliment for stud OS Damain Harrell to work with, and the Colorado defense finally seems to be coming around. This is a crucial game for them with three straight on the road against divisional foes up ahead, so I expect HC Mike Dailey and his staff to get this team to play to their fullest this evening. JQP is expecting another big effort from the Glads since this number has been bought down from the opening number of 12’, and it looks like we might be able to get an even more favorable number
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have one Saturday NBA Best Bet and 3 Arena Football games that I played this week (all happen to be tonight).
I plan on releasing Sunday's NBA at 3 pm Pacific on Saturday, but that could change (I'll let you know if it does).
Saturday NBA Best Bet
**DETROIT (-8 1/2) over Orlando
Detroit is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS agaisnt the Magic this season and the Pistons should continue their dominance in this game. Detroit played their starters limited minutes in their final 4 games, but the Pistons are 24-7 straight up with Webber, Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, and Billups all playing (excluding the final 4 games when each played limited minutes). The Pistons had a tendency to relax in regular season games as a big favorite (1-7 ATS favored by 9 points or more), but they're 7-4-1 ATS as a postseason favorite of 9 points or more in recent years. Detroit is also 12-1-1 ATS with their current lineup when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .540 and not laying more than 9 points, so they have taken care of business against mediocre and bad teams. My ratings favor Detroit by 10 1/2 points in this game, but the reason for the play is a solid 33-12-1 ATS game 1 of round 1 situation. I'll take Detroit in a 2- Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -8 points or less.
Other Games
TORONTO (-4 1/2) over New Jersey
The home team was 4-0 ATS in this series this season and I'll lean with Toronto to continue that trend today. The Nets are better than their season record of 41-41, but the Raptors are also better than their record, as they struggled without Chris Bosh while he was out for 3 weeks in December. My ratings favor Toronto by 5 1/2 points and the Raptors are 21-10-1 ATS at home this season when not favored by more than 7 points and they've covered in 11 consecutive home games when not favored by 5 points or more against teams with a win percentage of less than .550. I'll lean with Toronto at -4 1/2 points and I'll consider the Raptors a Strong Opinion at -4 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 1/2 points or less.
Miami at CHICAGO (-4)
My ratings favor Chicago by 4 points and there are no situations favoring either team, so I have no opinion on this game.
HOUSTON (-6) over Utah
Houston is 30-11 straight up when both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming start, but they're 0-2 in those games against the Jazz. Utah struggled down the stretch, but the Jazz still rate as a good team and appear to match up well with the Rockets. My ratings suggest that the line on this game is a little low, so I'll lean slightly with Houston in this game at -6 or less.
Arena Football
As most of you know by know, I've been dabbling in Arena Football the last few weeks and so far my indicators and math model have performed well (albeit with a small sample size). Two week ago I said there was one game that I was betting (Georgia as dog over Philly) and Georgia won straight up. Last week, I didn't bet on any of the games, but I did list the New Orleans Voodoo (+10 points) as a Strong Opinion over San Jose and the Voodoo also won straight up.
There are 3 games this week that I think are worth playing and all of them are tonight. I played the New York Dragons at +9 1/2, Arizona at +8 and Las Vegas +10. I played New York for 2 1/2 Stars and Arizona and Las Vegas for 2-Stars each and played them at the per Star amount that I use in Basketball (which is less than my per Star amount in the NFL and College Football).
Remember, I've been handicapping Arena Football for just 3 weeks and I am just letting you know what I'm playing. I expect to win a good percentage if I continue to handicap the AFL, but I really don't have the history to know how I'll do with these games - so play at your own risk.
**New York (+9) over ORLANDO
New York is a better team than Orlando from the line of scrimmage, but the Dragons young quarterback continues to throw interceptions, which has helped New York to a league worst -12 in turnover margin. The Dragons are likely to be negative in turnovers in this game too, but not as negative as they've been and my math model favors Orlando by just 3 points in this game while both of my statistical indicators that work well in the NFL and College (and have worked well so far in the Arena League) point towards New York in this game. I recommend playing New York for 2-Stars at +7 points or more.
**Arizona (+8) over UTAH
Arizona has a good history as an underdog (41-23-1 ATS) while Utah is only 3-13 ATS lifetime as a favorite (2-4 ATS this season). One of my statistical indicators favors Arizona in this game and my math model favors Utah by just 5.3 points. I recommend playing Arizona at +7 points or more for 2-Stars.
**Las Vegas (+10) over COLORADO
Las Vegas made some changes prior to last week's game against Georgia and the result was a narrow 68-69 loss as a 21 point underdog to Georgia. New quarterback Brian Jones completed 68% of his passes for 9.1 yards per pass, 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his debut and he looks to be an upgrade from former starter Shaun King. My ratings favor Colorado by just 4 points in this game and I'd make a fair line of 5 points even if I Jones turns out to be no better than King (i.e. last week's strong performance was just a fluke). I recommend playing Las Vegas at +9 points or more for 2-Stars.
LT Profits
New York Mets
(105) *OPINION* Take Mets +105 to Maul Braves
The Mets are the best team in baseball right now, and even with Tim Hudson on the mound for Atlanta, the New Yorkers are an automatic play at this price at home.
Granted Hudson has been great to this point, but he now must contend with a Mets lineup that is averaging 6.21 runs per game overall this season with a sensational team batting average of .303. Besides, Shea Stadium has not been one of Hudson’s favorite parks, as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 21.1 innings pitched here. Meanwhile Michael Pelfrey pitched well in his seasonal debut for New York, allowing just two runs on six hits in 5.2 innings. The way the Mets have been hitting, anything close to that effort by Pelfrey should be good enough to get the win in this spot.
Finally, should this game be tight late, the Mets have the superior bullpen with a great collective 1.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, compared to a 3.32 ERA and a dismal 1.50 WHIP for the Braves pen.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
(175) *OPINION* Go with Devil Rays +175 to Sting Tribe
The Indians come to south Florida after getting swept in a three-game series at Yankee Stadium, including a devastating loss yesterday when they blew a 6-2 lead with two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning!
Aside from the psychological effect that loss should have, the Tribe may also be physically tired here after making the long trip from New York without a day off. These are certainly not the best conditions to be laying this much chalk, especially since the Devil Rays look to be improved this season. Granted Cleveland ace CC Sabathia is on the hill for this game, but the Rays have hit significantly better vs. southpaws (.264) than they have vs. right-handers (.220) here at home this season.
Now we realize that Tampa Bay starter Edwin Jackson is nothing special, but he did prove to be serviceable while with the Dodgers last season. This game may come down to the bullpens, which would be an adventure with two of the worst pens in all of baseball. However, this game would be a coin flip if it gets to that point, giving value to the Rays at this price.
Throw in the fact that the Orioles are 5-16 in their last 21 games on artificial turf, and we will go for the value play here.
LT Profits
New York Mets
(105) *OPINION* Take Mets +105 to Maul Braves
The Mets are the best team in baseball right now, and even with Tim Hudson on the mound for Atlanta, the New Yorkers are an automatic play at this price at home.
Granted Hudson has been great to this point, but he now must contend with a Mets lineup that is averaging 6.21 runs per game overall this season with a sensational team batting average of .303. Besides, Shea Stadium has not been one of Hudson’s favorite parks, as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 21.1 innings pitched here. Meanwhile Michael Pelfrey pitched well in his seasonal debut for New York, allowing just two runs on six hits in 5.2 innings. The way the Mets have been hitting, anything close to that effort by Pelfrey should be good enough to get the win in this spot.
Finally, should this game be tight late, the Mets have the superior bullpen with a great collective 1.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, compared to a 3.32 ERA and a dismal 1.50 WHIP for the Braves pen.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
(175) *OPINION* Go with Devil Rays +175 to Sting Tribe
The Indians come to south Florida after getting swept in a three-game series at Yankee Stadium, including a devastating loss yesterday when they blew a 6-2 lead with two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning!
Aside from the psychological effect that loss should have, the Tribe may also be physically tired here after making the long trip from New York without a day off. These are certainly not the best conditions to be laying this much chalk, especially since the Devil Rays look to be improved this season. Granted Cleveland ace CC Sabathia is on the hill for this game, but the Rays have hit significantly better vs. southpaws (.264) than they have vs. right-handers (.220) here at home this season.
Now we realize that Tampa Bay starter Edwin Jackson is nothing special, but he did prove to be serviceable while with the Dodgers last season. This game may come down to the bullpens, which would be an adventure with two of the worst pens in all of baseball. However, this game would be a coin flip if it gets to that point, giving value to the Rays at this price.
Throw in the fact that the Orioles are 5-16 in their last 21 games on artificial turf, and we will go for the value play here.
Joey Gaffney
MLB Picks
Team Units Line
Los Angeles Dodgers 7* PP -172
Philadelphia Phillies 5* BB -117
Chicago Cubs 5* BB 111
New York Yankees 5* BB 102
Game Units Line
San Francisco Giants-Colorado Rockies ** OVER ** 5* BB 9
New York Mets-Atlanta Braves ** UNDER ** 5* BB 8.5
NHL Picks
Team Units Line
Buffalo Sabres 7* PP -320
New Jersey Devils 5* BB -175
San Jose Sharks 5* BB 110
Game Units Line
San Jose Sharks-Nashville Predators ** UNDER ** 5* BB 5.5
Arena Picks
Team Units Line
Colorado Crush 5* BB -10
New York Dragons 5* BB 8.5
Utah Blaze 5* BB -8
Totals 4 U
Pirates/dodgers Over 8 1/2
Michael Cannon
Friday's Plays...
20 Dime –
WHITE SOX (With Danks and Durbin as listed pitchers)
Take the White Sox tonight over the Tigers.
The ChiSox are just getting on a roll. Starting with Mark Buehrle’s no-hitter Wednesday and last night’s impressive win, they come into this series with the Tigers full of confidence.
Detroit sends Chad Durbin to the mound and he has been shelled in his two games this year, allowing a whopping 17 hits and 12 earned runs in only 8 2-3 innings.
If Durbin hopes to shake out of his slump I’m sure he’d rather be facing any other team in the league besides the White Sox.
That’s because his lifetime numbers against the ChiSox aren’t much better than his statistics this season.
Durbin is 1-6 with a 10.66 ERA in nine games against Chicago, having given up 66 hits and 45 earned runs in only 38 innings.
The White Sox will send left-hander John Danks to the hill and he has shown good control so far, walking only three batters in 11 1-3 innings. The Tigers are a free-swinging team without much plate discipline, so Danks’ control should serve him well tonight.
Take the White Sox for the road win tonight at this near even price.
5 Dime Games–
BLUE JAYS (With Burnett as listed pitcher)
Take Toronto for the win at Camden Yards tonight.
A.J. Burnett gets the nod for the Blue Jays and this guy’s stuff is just too good for him to continue struggling the way he has through his first three starts.
Burnett has a dominating fastball and an excellent breaking ball to keep hitters off balance. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him pitch deep into the game tonight against a suspect Baltimore lineup.
Take the Blue Jays for the road win as Burnett gives Toronto the lift it needs after yesterday’s heartbreaking loss to the Red Sox.
A’s (With Blanton and McCarthy as listed pitchers)
Take the A’s tonight over the Rangers.
Not a bad price here as we’re not only getting the better pitcher in Joe Blanton, but the better overall team in the A’s as a slight underdog.
I know they’re on the road and Texas can be a real hitter’s paradise, but the Rangers bats haven’t exactly answered the bell to start the season and they’re going with a pitcher in Brandon McCarthy who has given up 21 hits and 13 runs in only 14 innings.
Take the A’s as they grab the road win over the Rangers.
PADRES (With Young and Fogg as listed pitchers)
Take the Padres for the road win over the Rockies.
This is a cheap price to pay for tonight’s pitching matchup.
Chris Young gets the nod for San Diego and he’s had good success against the Rockies in his career. Lifetime he’s 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five games against Colorado.
Josh Fogg goes for the Rockies and despite some decent numbers I don’t trust him here tonight. Fogg has a tendency to give up the long ball and pitching in Coors can humble a pitcher who gets the ball up and over the plate. Young definitely has a better track record and backing him is the right play here tonight.
Take the Padres for the win
Golden Contender
4* Nashville
no mlb tonight
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I plan on releasing Sunday's NBA at 3 pm Pacific on Saturday, but that could change (I'll let you know if it does).
Saturday NBA Best Bet
**DETROIT (-8 1/2) over Orlando
Detroit is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS agaisnt the Magic this season and the Pistons should continue their dominance in this game. Detroit played their starters limited minutes in their final 4 games, but the Pistons are 24-7 straight up with Webber, Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, and Billups all playing (excluding the final 4 games when each played limited minutes). The Pistons had a tendency to relax in regular season games as a big favorite (1-7 ATS favored by 9 points or more), but they're 7-4-1 ATS as a postseason favorite of 9 points or more in recent years. Detroit is also 12-1-1 ATS with their current lineup when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .540 and not laying more than 9 points, so they have taken care of business against mediocre and bad teams. My ratings favor Detroit by 10 1/2 points in this game, but the reason for the play is a solid 33-12-1 ATS game 1 of round 1 situation. I'll take Detroit in a 2- Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -8 points or less.
Other Games
TORONTO (-4 1/2) over New Jersey
The home team was 4-0 ATS in this series this season and I'll lean with Toronto to continue that trend today. The Nets are better than their season record of 41-41, but the Raptors are also better than their record, as they struggled without Chris Bosh while he was out for 3 weeks in December. My ratings favor Toronto by 5 1/2 points and the Raptors are 21-10-1 ATS at home this season when not favored by more than 7 points and they've covered in 11 consecutive home games when not favored by 5 points or more against teams with a win percentage of less than .550. I'll lean with Toronto at -4 1/2 points and I'll consider the Raptors a Strong Opinion at -4 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 1/2 points or less.
Miami at CHICAGO (-4)
My ratings favor Chicago by 4 points and there are no situations favoring either team, so I have no opinion on this game.
HOUSTON (-6) over Utah
Houston is 30-11 straight up when both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming start, but they're 0-2 in those games against the Jazz. Utah struggled down the stretch, but the Jazz still rate as a good team and appear to match up well with the Rockets. My ratings suggest that the line on this game is a little low, so I'll lean slightly with Houston in this game at -6 or less.
Arena Football
As most of you know by know, I've been dabbling in Arena Football the last few weeks and so far my indicators and math model have performed well (albeit with a small sample size). Two week ago I said there was one game that I was betting (Georgia as dog over Philly) and Georgia won straight up. Last week, I didn't bet on any of the games, but I did list the New Orleans Voodoo (+10 points) as a Strong Opinion over San Jose and the Voodoo also won straight up.
There are 3 games this week that I think are worth playing and all of them are tonight. I played the New York Dragons at +9 1/2, Arizona at +8 and Las Vegas +10. I played New York for 2 1/2 Stars and Arizona and Las Vegas for 2-Stars each and played them at the per Star amount that I use in Basketball (which is less than my per Star amount in the NFL and College Football).
Remember, I've been handicapping Arena Football for just 3 weeks and I am just letting you know what I'm playing. I expect to win a good percentage if I continue to handicap the AFL, but I really don't have the history to know how I'll do with these games - so play at your own risk.
**New York (+9) over ORLANDO
New York is a better team than Orlando from the line of scrimmage, but the Dragons young quarterback continues to throw interceptions, which has helped New York to a league worst -12 in turnover margin. The Dragons are likely to be negative in turnovers in this game too, but not as negative as they've been and my math model favors Orlando by just 3 points in this game while both of my statistical indicators that work well in the NFL and College (and have worked well so far in the Arena League) point towards New York in this game. I recommend playing New York for 2-Stars at +7 points or more.
**Arizona (+8) over UTAH
Arizona has a good history as an underdog (41-23-1 ATS) while Utah is only 3-13 ATS lifetime as a favorite (2-4 ATS this season). One of my statistical indicators favors Arizona in this game and my math model favors Utah by just 5.3 points. I recommend playing Arizona at +7 points or more for 2-Stars.
**Las Vegas (+10) over COLORADO
Las Vegas made some changes prior to last week's game against Georgia and the result was a narrow 68-69 loss as a 21 point underdog to Georgia. New quarterback Brian Jones completed 68% of his passes for 9.1 yards per pass, 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his debut and he looks to be an upgrade from former starter Shaun King. My ratings favor Colorado by just 4 points in this game and I'd make a fair line of 5 points even if I Jones turns out to be no better than King (i.e. last week's strong performance was just a fluke). I recommend playing Las Vegas at +9 points or more for 2-Stars.
LT Profits
New York Mets
(105) *OPINION* Take Mets +105 to Maul Braves
The Mets are the best team in baseball right now, and even with Tim Hudson on the mound for Atlanta, the New Yorkers are an automatic play at this price at home.
Granted Hudson has been great to this point, but he now must contend with a Mets lineup that is averaging 6.21 runs per game overall this season with a sensational team batting average of .303. Besides, Shea Stadium has not been one of Hudson’s favorite parks, as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 21.1 innings pitched here. Meanwhile Michael Pelfrey pitched well in his seasonal debut for New York, allowing just two runs on six hits in 5.2 innings. The way the Mets have been hitting, anything close to that effort by Pelfrey should be good enough to get the win in this spot.
Finally, should this game be tight late, the Mets have the superior bullpen with a great collective 1.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, compared to a 3.32 ERA and a dismal 1.50 WHIP for the Braves pen.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
(175) *OPINION* Go with Devil Rays +175 to Sting Tribe
The Indians come to south Florida after getting swept in a three-game series at Yankee Stadium, including a devastating loss yesterday when they blew a 6-2 lead with two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning!
Aside from the psychological effect that loss should have, the Tribe may also be physically tired here after making the long trip from New York without a day off. These are certainly not the best conditions to be laying this much chalk, especially since the Devil Rays look to be improved this season. Granted Cleveland ace CC Sabathia is on the hill for this game, but the Rays have hit significantly better vs. southpaws (.264) than they have vs. right-handers (.220) here at home this season.
Now we realize that Tampa Bay starter Edwin Jackson is nothing special, but he did prove to be serviceable while with the Dodgers last season. This game may come down to the bullpens, which would be an adventure with two of the worst pens in all of baseball. However, this game would be a coin flip if it gets to that point, giving value to the Rays at this price.
Throw in the fact that the Orioles are 5-16 in their last 21 games on artificial turf, and we will go for the value play here.
LT Profits
New York Mets
(105) *OPINION* Take Mets +105 to Maul Braves
The Mets are the best team in baseball right now, and even with Tim Hudson on the mound for Atlanta, the New Yorkers are an automatic play at this price at home.
Granted Hudson has been great to this point, but he now must contend with a Mets lineup that is averaging 6.21 runs per game overall this season with a sensational team batting average of .303. Besides, Shea Stadium has not been one of Hudson’s favorite parks, as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 21.1 innings pitched here. Meanwhile Michael Pelfrey pitched well in his seasonal debut for New York, allowing just two runs on six hits in 5.2 innings. The way the Mets have been hitting, anything close to that effort by Pelfrey should be good enough to get the win in this spot.
Finally, should this game be tight late, the Mets have the superior bullpen with a great collective 1.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, compared to a 3.32 ERA and a dismal 1.50 WHIP for the Braves pen.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
(175) *OPINION* Go with Devil Rays +175 to Sting Tribe
The Indians come to south Florida after getting swept in a three-game series at Yankee Stadium, including a devastating loss yesterday when they blew a 6-2 lead with two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning!
Aside from the psychological effect that loss should have, the Tribe may also be physically tired here after making the long trip from New York without a day off. These are certainly not the best conditions to be laying this much chalk, especially since the Devil Rays look to be improved this season. Granted Cleveland ace CC Sabathia is on the hill for this game, but the Rays have hit significantly better vs. southpaws (.264) than they have vs. right-handers (.220) here at home this season.
Now we realize that Tampa Bay starter Edwin Jackson is nothing special, but he did prove to be serviceable while with the Dodgers last season. This game may come down to the bullpens, which would be an adventure with two of the worst pens in all of baseball. However, this game would be a coin flip if it gets to that point, giving value to the Rays at this price.
Throw in the fact that the Orioles are 5-16 in their last 21 games on artificial turf, and we will go for the value play here.
Joey Gaffney
MLB Picks
Team Units Line
Los Angeles Dodgers 7* PP -172
Philadelphia Phillies 5* BB -117
Chicago Cubs 5* BB 111
New York Yankees 5* BB 102
Game Units Line
San Francisco Giants-Colorado Rockies ** OVER ** 5* BB 9
New York Mets-Atlanta Braves ** UNDER ** 5* BB 8.5
NHL Picks
Team Units Line
Buffalo Sabres 7* PP -320
New Jersey Devils 5* BB -175
San Jose Sharks 5* BB 110
Game Units Line
San Jose Sharks-Nashville Predators ** UNDER ** 5* BB 5.5
Arena Picks
Team Units Line
Colorado Crush 5* BB -10
New York Dragons 5* BB 8.5
Utah Blaze 5* BB -8
Totals 4 U
Pirates/dodgers Over 8 1/2
Michael Cannon
Friday's Plays...
20 Dime –
WHITE SOX (With Danks and Durbin as listed pitchers)
Take the White Sox tonight over the Tigers.
The ChiSox are just getting on a roll. Starting with Mark Buehrle’s no-hitter Wednesday and last night’s impressive win, they come into this series with the Tigers full of confidence.
Detroit sends Chad Durbin to the mound and he has been shelled in his two games this year, allowing a whopping 17 hits and 12 earned runs in only 8 2-3 innings.
If Durbin hopes to shake out of his slump I’m sure he’d rather be facing any other team in the league besides the White Sox.
That’s because his lifetime numbers against the ChiSox aren’t much better than his statistics this season.
Durbin is 1-6 with a 10.66 ERA in nine games against Chicago, having given up 66 hits and 45 earned runs in only 38 innings.
The White Sox will send left-hander John Danks to the hill and he has shown good control so far, walking only three batters in 11 1-3 innings. The Tigers are a free-swinging team without much plate discipline, so Danks’ control should serve him well tonight.
Take the White Sox for the road win tonight at this near even price.
5 Dime Games–
BLUE JAYS (With Burnett as listed pitcher)
Take Toronto for the win at Camden Yards tonight.
A.J. Burnett gets the nod for the Blue Jays and this guy’s stuff is just too good for him to continue struggling the way he has through his first three starts.
Burnett has a dominating fastball and an excellent breaking ball to keep hitters off balance. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him pitch deep into the game tonight against a suspect Baltimore lineup.
Take the Blue Jays for the road win as Burnett gives Toronto the lift it needs after yesterday’s heartbreaking loss to the Red Sox.
A’s (With Blanton and McCarthy as listed pitchers)
Take the A’s tonight over the Rangers.
Not a bad price here as we’re not only getting the better pitcher in Joe Blanton, but the better overall team in the A’s as a slight underdog.
I know they’re on the road and Texas can be a real hitter’s paradise, but the Rangers bats haven’t exactly answered the bell to start the season and they’re going with a pitcher in Brandon McCarthy who has given up 21 hits and 13 runs in only 14 innings.
Take the A’s as they grab the road win over the Rangers.
PADRES (With Young and Fogg as listed pitchers)
Take the Padres for the road win over the Rockies.
This is a cheap price to pay for tonight’s pitching matchup.
Chris Young gets the nod for San Diego and he’s had good success against the Rockies in his career. Lifetime he’s 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five games against Colorado.
Josh Fogg goes for the Rockies and despite some decent numbers I don’t trust him here tonight. Fogg has a tendency to give up the long ball and pitching in Coors can humble a pitcher who gets the ball up and over the plate. Young definitely has a better track record and backing him is the right play here tonight.
Take the Padres for the win
Golden Contender
4* Nashville
no mlb tonight
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