Jack Winningham update. Play on Duke ML +120. Here's the write up for Friday Night NCAA games.
September 27[SUP]th[/SUP]
NCAA action tonight features 4 games. I like a couple of plays.
Home teams in ALL CAPS.
VIRGINIA TECH -2.5 vs Duke (Line from BetOnline.ag)
Here’s a game featuring a name program in Vtech that is just not living up to its history. Vtech hasn’t covered a spread all season, and they haven’t been lining up against powerhouses. They lost OUTRIGHT as a 4.5 favorite to Boston College, and then won in unspectacular fashion against Old Dominion and Furman. Versus Furman they were 24 point favorites and won a by a mere 7 points. Coach Fuente has essentially lost this team, along with the fans and Boosters. Each week their offense seemingly less productive, and I think that Duke not only covers the small line, but wins outright. Duke aren’t world beaters, but they don’t have to be vs Vtech. They played tough against Middle Tennessee State – a team who gave Michigan a hard time and smashed in-state rival and SEC member Tennessee. I’m putting a small bet in on Duke, and I’m opening up a Triple Teaser and going under the total of 52 and dipping it up to under 62. That O/U opened at 53.5 and has gone down. Shop around if you like, but I don’t see it climbing back up. The one thing Vtech has done is play halfway decently on defense. But with a shrinking offense, I don’t see this game being a shootout and the Under should be solid when teased up to 62 points.
Weather won’t be a factor, other than moderate heat in the low 80’s.
Penn State -6.5 vs MARYLAND (Line from 5Dimes)
In a game that’s a conference opener for both teams, Penn State takes a short trip to Maryland. The Nittany Lions smashed a couple of non-conference sacrificial lambs before nearly tripping up last week against in-state rival Pitt. Is Pitt that good, or was this just a tough rivalry game where many times you can just toss out the stats and watch the teams duke it out? I tend to think it’s a bit of both. Pitt did just knock off UCF last Saturday, and that’s not any small feat. While I think Penn State wins this game, I’m staying away from it. This is another grudge match for them, this time between Big10 teams that recruit from the same region. This could be a down to the wire game that I’m not touching.
Air Force vs San Jose State is a game I’m not going near. And although it’s a great early season matchup, the Cal vs Arizona State game is a toss-up, it’s just too unpredictable. The Pac12 has been cannibalizing themselves early this season, and that’s going to continue. Their best chances at a Playoff Representative Team, Utah, blew it last week at USC. Washington State blows a HUGE lead vs a lousy UCLA team, and Washington stumbled against Cal. The ASU-CAL game will be fun to watch, but it’s not one to wager money on.
So, in addition to going against the Detroit Tigers twice today (weather permitting), put a small money line play on Duke +120 at 5Dimes. Another good play is to open up a Triple Dip on the Virginia Tech/Duke O/U and get it up to 62. And close it out tomorrow or Sunday on one the myriad of available games.
BOL
Jack
