DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Jul 12 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -1.5 (-150)
View Analysis
Sanchez v. German
.239 ISO
48 wRC
14.7 wRAA
.385 wOBA
140 wRC+
That's the Yankees metric stats over the last month at home against RHP. Yep...that is all before figuring into the equation they face at home, the MLB's worst starter going...he walks OVER 5 batters per 9 innings, has an FIP/xFIP split of 5.56/5.33.
His Last 2 road starts he allowed 15 runs in 8 innings and one of those was a previous slaughter at the hands of these Yanks!
-150 is a big price....but the VALUE is almost wild stuff the RL is this cheap!
Game: (909) Arizona Diamondbacks at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 12 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +112
View Analysis
Ray v. Wainwright
Something sure does smell with this line with the Cards at home and the long time ace on the mound, starting off first game after the break. Public team with very public name pitcher and such a short line against the basically unknown Dbacks and a guy named Robbie.Ray...screams to me Vegas is scared shitless at being overly liable with the Dbacks. Lo and behold...the money comes pouring in on AZ...us as well!
The Cards haven't hit lefties well recently...and even worse...have had very few opportunities at all over the past month oddly enough. No team has fewer PAs in the past few weeks and no team has been less productive in those trips to the dish. This would be a spot we'd normally focus on a first 5 inning wager...but the added benefit here is NO TEAM has been worse against right handed pitching during that same period...amassing -12.3 wRAA in fact!
The line movement, the pitching matchup, the hitting factors, and finally...no starter gets less run support than Waino! Not normally something I love bringing into a solid cap, but once it's over a 20 start period it starts to mean something...for whatever reason his lineup has scored 25 runs for him total on the year...2.4 runs per 9 innings! Ridiculous futility and adds to the value of the better team at plus money.
Last system= home chalk inside -120 with a worse record than the road foe on the season are just 27-34 SU