TONY FINN
BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN FRI NITE NL PRIVATE PLAY (17-2)
Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: May 24 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-105)
View Analysis
Miami at Washington Under the Total of 9 (good to 8 runs)
4% game rating
Note that while it may read and sound when you speak it yourself, strange, but I don't expect the current total to hold serve at 9. Sharps that have the same information as I do and know the the offensive capabilities, or lack thereof, will push the over-under down to 8.5 at some point before mid-afternoon. Grab the nine as early as your shop will let you push in on the total play.
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LIST PITCHERS: Lopez and McGowin
(953) Miami Marlins at (954) Washington Nationals
Nationals Park forecast calls for temps in the high 70's / low 80's for first pitch with a brisk wind gusting 10-15 mph in from left-center.
The Fish rest at the bottom of baseball in runs scored. It isn't close. The Marlins have scored a total of 129 runs on the season. This in 46 games, which maths out to roughly 2.6 runs per game. When facing right-handed pitching Miami is hitting just .219 with a ridiculous .286 on base percentage. The aforementioned numbers were bolstered this week. Why? Because the Marlins hit .250 as a team and reached base at a .297 clip. As sarcastic as I am, without trying, it is an absolute violation of the word professional, in front of baseball player, as to what Jeter and the ownership are doing at South Beach.
As easy as it is to call Jeter and the front office of Miami a joke. Poke fun of using the word professional as to what form of baseball the team is playing, performing and getting paid well to do so the franchise has some pitching talent. One of those young guns takes the mound on Friday in D.C. to take on what is a mess of a Nats troupe. A group that has been touted as the best in the NL East for seemingly the last handful of years and have done little to live up to the expectations.
Pablo Lopez sports a 3-5 record with a 5.06 ERA. And yes, you read both of the comments about Lopez correctly. He is a talent and yes he has an ERA of 5.06.
Lopez is coming off a solid outing, one that saw him surrender just one hit in seven scoreless innings. Lopez struck out seven and walked two, against the New York Mets. His prior start he allowed 10 runs on ten hits in 3 innings of work striking out three and walking two, this game too was against the Mets. It was easily the ugliest statline of the season for any Marlins starter and counts for nearly 35 percent of his earned runs this season across nine starts. Take that 10 earned run game out of his 2019 stats and the young righty has an ERA of 3.4 with more strike outs than innings pitched and a K:BB ratio of 46:11.
Want an example of how to test the measure of a young pitchers character with and understanding of his ability? Ask that, any pitcher, to return to the mound five days after getting punched in the gut by the same team to the tune of 10 runs on 10 hits and three home runs in three innings of work. And after you ask him to go out and face that lineup watch his shoulders, his posture, in combination with how he responds. Furthermore watch how he walks from the dugout to the mound for the first pitch of the first inning versus that lineup..
Lopez answer the bell with the best performance of his big league career after the worst, and against the same batting order. If there is any questions about his ability they would be better directed to his character... and he answered those questions 10-fold with his second start versus the Mets.
Don Mattingly doesn't pull punches and isn't going to pat you on the ass and whisper sweet nothings in your ear, nor will he respond to the press in such manner. Mattingly said of the 23-year-old Venezuelan. "He took a beating in New York. Nothing went right. There were two ways to go -- either he was going to come out and pitch as if he were afraid of those guys or he was going to be aggressive." Lopez is 0-1 mark with a 7.59 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in two appearances versus Washington. However neither of those were this season and were against better lineups than this year’s version of the Nats.
And whom is Washington sending to the mound with injuries to Sanchez and Hellickson? They send minor league sinker and spitballer Kyle McGowin (0-0, 6.00). The start against the Fish will be his seventh career appearance and second career start. The 27-year-old allowed three runs on as many hits in three innings of a no-decision versus the Chicago Cubs in his last appearance five days ago. Of his nine outs 7 were ground balls. It was his first turn on the big boy hill this season. The right-hander is currently suspended from the Triple A Fresno team when the home plate umpire found a foreign substance in his glove in a game. McGowin owns a 50-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41 2/3 innings (eight starts) in the hitter friendly Triple-A league on the west coast.
There are a hundred and one reasons to believe that the Marlins will lose 100 games this season. But entering tonight's contest in the nation's capital the Marlins have won six straight. And note they have earned the half dozen consecutive wins with their pitching, not their hitting. In those six wins the Fish have an on base percentage of .297. Yes... an on base percentage that is better than four other NL teams. Those senior circuit squads are Cincinnati, Chicago, San Francisco and Arizona. And the four teams that have a lesser OBP the last week are as follows;
Reds: 3-3
Chicago: 3-3
San Fran: 3-3
Arizona: 1-5
While the Fish are 6-0
The variable as to why Miami is 6-0 as opposed to the rest of the field either treading water or scuffling like the D'Backs is pitching.
Miami has a batting average against this season of just .242. The last six games they top Major League Baseball with a .185 BAA. The rotation has a 1.91 ERA their last handful of games. They have two shutouts, one complete game and have struck out a batter per inning, 47:47.
Lopez's nine starts this season have come against teams considered playoff contenders, save one. The Mets twice, Atlanta twice, Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland and Cincinnati is the one team that isn't expected to be in the postseason race come August.
Pablo Lopez (SP-MIA) showed some promise in his season debut against the Rockies, tossing 5.1 innings in which he surrendered 3 runs on 5 hits while walking none and recording 7 punchouts. The 23 year-old made just 10 starts in the majors prior to this season (all of them in 2018), logging a 4.14 ERA (4.15 xFIP), 7.06 K/9, and 2.76 BB/9 over 58.2 innings. While his 5.06 ERA after Saturday’s outing isn’t pretty, his 2.61 xFIP points to a 50% strand rate and .357 BABIP allowed that were both unlucky. Especially considering his home park, Lopez is one to keep an eye on as he has three pitches that currently grade at a 50 or better and his command is also graded at a 50. The nice number of strikeouts and zero walks recorded in his first outing of the campaign make him worth watching over his next couple of starts. -
McGowin has only one appearance this season and that came against Joe Madden's Cubbies.
The Nationals position players, save Ryan Zimmerman, have returned to active status after April saw the team without the likes of corner infielder Anthony Rendon - and others - that were bumped and bruised.
The Nationals, from the coaching staff down to the utility reserves, including the team's pedestrian are not postseason worthy. The bottom-line bare-naked truth is that Washington will be fortunate to be in the divisional picture by the break.
The Washington lineup has a serious problem with their splits. The Nats are slashing 228/.302.378 versus right-handed pitching. Which doesn't allow them to make hay across a 162-game season. Versus lefties the Nationals order is hitting a solid .282 with an on base percentage of .354 and slugging a respectable .489. The Nats OPS against southpaws is the third best in all of baseball behind only Houston and Minnesota.
The Washington lineup against right-handed pitching has been dismal.
And while this Nationals squad have hit for a higher average at home versus the road they are a middling group at best at Nationals Park with a .251/.326/.425 slash line.
TOTAL UNDER 9 runs
FINN FRI NITE AL PRIVATE PLAY (17-2)
Game: (963) Tampa Bay Rays at (964) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: May 24 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -133
View Analysis
PLAY: Tampa Bay Rays -133 (good to -150)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Bieber
(963) Tampa Bay Rays at (964) Cleveland Indians
If the following game analysis looks familiar it is because it is. The following write-up for the Friday night American League event in Cleveland is essentially the play that was positioned to be the Thursday night release, until the Rays coaching staff decided to give Snell and added day off and toss Yarbrough to the hill to face Triple-A arm Plutko.
There are two obvious differences in this Friday night contest versus the Thursday night event pitting lefty Snell versus Plutko. Yesterday lefty Snell was directed to give the start to lefty Yarbrough. Hence the no-play as I stated to List Starting Pitchers. The second difference, Snell starts against Bieber rather than Plutko.
And thirdly, while I wouldn't in any way shape or form talk you out of playing the run-line in this contest with Snell as opposed to the money-line release I am recommending -- the ML number we are receiving on Snell and the Rays is inflated. And is such because of how Bieber has performed this season - and in his last start.
The reigning Cy Young winning Snell has pitched better than his 2019 line suggests. That statement may appear to be a reach but it isn't. Yes, Snell's numbers look good as is. But his underlying peripherals are over-the-top. Snell is off a no-decision at Yankee Stadium where he tossed 6 innings of six hit and one run baseball. Across his last three starts, two versus the Yankees and an interleague outing against the Diamondback the Cy Young lefthander has worked 17.2 innings while surrendering 11 hits, three runs, striking out 30 against three walks and doing all of the aforementioned without giving up a home run.
After surrendering five runs to the Houston Astros in his season debut, and an unfortunate outing against the Royals at "The K" he has been as elite as elite can be.
Snell's 3.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are acceptable by most measures. They are, however, just a introduction and example of why surface numbers that include ERA are simply not reliable. Snell has 71 K's in 49 innings this season. He has allowed 37 hits in those 49 frames and owns a 71:12 K/BB ratio. The six home runs allowed the season find three of those coming in the March 28th start against the Astros. The best offense in all of baseball and on pace to be one of the best of all-time.
The Cleveland Indians current lineup, projected for Friday night's contest at Progressive is slashing less than .228/.312/.376 versus southpaws. Because that slash line was what they were before facing Yarbrough.. who shut down the Indians order. Only the Texas Rangers and LA Angels are hitting for a lower percentage against lefties.
When tasked to square off against left-handed pitching this season the Indians have struck out 126 times in 439 at-bats. The math works out to the Tribe striking out in 29 percent of their at-bats vs LHP. And the lineup has walked at an 11 percent clip in at-bats in the same situation.
At the plate the Indians have been abysmal against secondary pitches. 35 percent of their swinging strikes come versus sliders and curves and their hard contact when they put a ball in play is less than 25 percent. The Indians have very similar underlying peripherals to that of National League Arizona without the power. Three starts back Snell faced an Arizona lineup that also scuffles against almost everything but fastballs with a chase rate similar to the Indians, as well. Snell dominated the Diamondbacks' lineup, the same lineup that had just scored 27 runs in a weekend series against the Rockies and at the time of Snell's start at the Trop versus Arizona the Diamondbacks ranked fourth in the majors in runs per game. Snell took a perfect game into the sixth inning vs Zona and finished allowing one hit striking out nine and walking none.
Cleveland starter Shane Bieber comes off a start in which he dominated... but did so against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that is inconsistent and not equipped to bring their best, or something good enough, to compete with the big boys.
Bieber flashes surface numbers that give us 20-30 cents of value backing Snell. And he has done so coming off a complete-game shutout in which he gave up just 5 hits and walked none while striking out 15 batters. Bieber owns a 3.22 ERA through 58.2 innings pitched on the year, which could be argued that it is supported by a 3.43 xFIP. His 10.59 K/9 is an improvement against his last year's number 9.26 (114.2 IP). And he had increased his K rate without damaging last year's walk ratio 1.99 BB/9.
So as impressive as what was just outlined is know that Bieber current posture is a mirage. The young right-hander has been fortunate, extremely fortunate. At first glance Bieber's 16.7% HR/FB would be looked at as bad luck - at least on the surface -- but digging deeper finds that opposing hitters are making hard contact nearly 50 percent of all balls hit in play. And with that HC percentage combined with a 42.9% flyball rate, and it is not just a recipe for regression but an implosion.
In addition Bieber has an unsustainable .255 BABIP. His career BABIP is .356.
Getting Snell against a Cleveland Indians lineup that has scored just 58 runs in 46 games in which they have faced at least a starting lefty or a reliever isn't going to win the Tribe many games. And slugging at a .376 clip has resulted in Cleveland going yard only 14 times in over 440 at bats.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -133