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Friday Service Play Thread 03/06/2020
- Thread starter BuzzKill
- Start date
DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (553) Orlando Magic at (554) Minnesota T\'wolves
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 8:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Over 114.0 (-107)
View Analysis
What exactly is this total? The full game total is damn near 234...and these 2 teams just played last week in Orlando to the tune of 224 points in the 1st half! Orlando has had multiple games in between...and measuring their 1st half defensive metrics over just the past 3 games...they rank right there at the bottom:
Opponent EFG% (65%!), 3 point %, opponent points scored from 3, opponent TS% (132%!),
These 2 teams over the previous 3 games each have allowed 63 first half points to opponents...and in the first half have a def. rating of 126 (Orlando, worst) and 117 (Minny, 5th worst)...Minny runs at a 108 pace in the first half lately while Orlando is RIGHT THERE with them at 102 in the first half. All of these numbers drop off in the second half...even more perplexing for the totals being hung!
There is a lot more I could write...as I capped this to be at 119 and honestly would have probably leaned that Over then as well...as there is really no reason for this to be below 120 at all!
Hurry now though as I think this goes UP. ALL. DAY!
Game: (553) Orlando Magic at (554) Minnesota T\'wolves
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 8:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Over 114.0 (-107)
View Analysis
What exactly is this total? The full game total is damn near 234...and these 2 teams just played last week in Orlando to the tune of 224 points in the 1st half! Orlando has had multiple games in between...and measuring their 1st half defensive metrics over just the past 3 games...they rank right there at the bottom:
Opponent EFG% (65%!), 3 point %, opponent points scored from 3, opponent TS% (132%!),
These 2 teams over the previous 3 games each have allowed 63 first half points to opponents...and in the first half have a def. rating of 126 (Orlando, worst) and 117 (Minny, 5th worst)...Minny runs at a 108 pace in the first half lately while Orlando is RIGHT THERE with them at 102 in the first half. All of these numbers drop off in the second half...even more perplexing for the totals being hung!
There is a lot more I could write...as I capped this to be at 119 and honestly would have probably leaned that Over then as well...as there is really no reason for this to be below 120 at all!
Hurry now though as I think this goes UP. ALL. DAY!
DR. CHUCK NCAAB
Game: (865) So Illinois at (866) Bradley
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 3:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Bradley -3.0 (-106)
View Analysis
SIU is not coming into this MVC tourney in a good spot AT. ALL. The neutral court aspect eliminates a little tiny bit of the excellent cap here on the Braves...but the Salukis are a DOA type tourney team...while Bradley comes in pretty hot...even almost knoking off Loyola, losing by a point in OT. the numbers scream out, and in the last 5 games there is a 20 point differential in offensive efficiency, does not turn the ball over on their possessions, and SIU will vastly lose the battle on the glass...on each end, but one and done will be the entire first half for SIU.
-3 is a great spot because Bradley also has been shooting excellent from deep..nearly 38%
I like this to be at least double the current spread and Bradley to most likely continue it on and fulfill the W for full game, but is a much less +EV play!
Game: (871) VMI at (872) Samford
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 73.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Neutral site and a high 1st half total...points to an Under with our numbers and a couple of rough rough SoCon offenses
Game: (865) So Illinois at (866) Bradley
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 3:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Bradley -3.0 (-106)
View Analysis
SIU is not coming into this MVC tourney in a good spot AT. ALL. The neutral court aspect eliminates a little tiny bit of the excellent cap here on the Braves...but the Salukis are a DOA type tourney team...while Bradley comes in pretty hot...even almost knoking off Loyola, losing by a point in OT. the numbers scream out, and in the last 5 games there is a 20 point differential in offensive efficiency, does not turn the ball over on their possessions, and SIU will vastly lose the battle on the glass...on each end, but one and done will be the entire first half for SIU.
-3 is a great spot because Bradley also has been shooting excellent from deep..nearly 38%
I like this to be at least double the current spread and Bradley to most likely continue it on and fulfill the W for full game, but is a much less +EV play!
Game: (871) VMI at (872) Samford
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 73.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Neutral site and a high 1st half total...points to an Under with our numbers and a couple of rough rough SoCon offenses
Cal Sports
Game: (871) VMI at (872) Samford
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: VMI -2.5 (-108)
View Analysis
#871 3* VMI -2.5 Samford 5 PM
Double revenge very little unless you were the favorite in both games and are the favorite again in the third meeting. VMI a team that isn’t a favorite often but they’ve played much better away from home than Sanford. VMI also allowing only 38% shooting he L5 games compared to Samford (48.7%).
Game: (859) Ball State at (860) Northern Illinois
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 125.0 (-108)
View Analysis
#859/#860 3* UNDER 125 Ball St/ Northern Illinois 8 PM
Ball St on the road a dead under team going 1-9 O/U as they shoot 40.2%. Northern Illinois one of the slowest paced teams at #329. Huskies 1-6 O/U in their last 7 home games with the only over coming vs Central Michigan (#11 in tempo in the country).
Game: (871) VMI at (872) Samford
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: VMI -2.5 (-108)
View Analysis
#871 3* VMI -2.5 Samford 5 PM
Double revenge very little unless you were the favorite in both games and are the favorite again in the third meeting. VMI a team that isn’t a favorite often but they’ve played much better away from home than Sanford. VMI also allowing only 38% shooting he L5 games compared to Samford (48.7%).
Game: (859) Ball State at (860) Northern Illinois
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 125.0 (-108)
View Analysis
#859/#860 3* UNDER 125 Ball St/ Northern Illinois 8 PM
Ball St on the road a dead under team going 1-9 O/U as they shoot 40.2%. Northern Illinois one of the slowest paced teams at #329. Huskies 1-6 O/U in their last 7 home games with the only over coming vs Central Michigan (#11 in tempo in the country).
[h=1]Top Sharp Consensus:[/h][h=1]No qualifying plays at this time. Two games are close, Davidson -4 over VCU achieves a Top Sharp Consensus count of 2-1 in favor of Davidson -4. Davidson achieves an LJP score of 1OPEN. The other play is Canisius -6 over Niagara which achieves a Top Sharp Consensus count of 2-0. Canisius currently achieves an LJP score of 3U. Information for both games will update in realtime and I would advise checking this page at 6:45pm ET and 8:45pm ET to see if anything has changed. Set those alarms on your phone![/h]
