thanks Indy! glad i could help and thankful for this tremendous NCAA year.
Waiting for these docs, got bored and dug in on ipad. Fresno/UCSB Over. Why? Fresno is avg 71 PPG last 5 games, and CSU Bakersfiled avg just over 71 PPG last 5. While last matchup btw these 2 last year netted a 56-48 result, the pace and scoring of both teams are different this year vs last yr.
Fresno ranks 176/362 (Middle of pack) for pace or Possessions per game with 71.9 (tops is 80). Last year they averaged 65. BIG Increase Year to year. Meanwhile, CSU Baker is #333 with 67.2 Possessions per game. Last year they were at 65 possessions per game, both teams have increased and with Fresno being the better team and at home, expect them to dictate and control the pace. With this game I found a disparity of close to 10 points from "MY Line." Therefore, with anything greater than 5 pts outside of margin for error, it is a top play/total for me.
People ask me all the time how I cap games. I've been blessed with an ability to do this and I hope to share some of my insights. As I said earlier, DON'T FOLLOW PEOPLE WHO ONLY FADE PUBLIC or bet on trends ONLY. Thats a losing strategy. My point: you must cap every game to a value, and if you know how to cap old school, every player esp starter gets a point value. I dont have time to go through it all but just some insight into how I think and approach these games.
As a former college athlete with several family members who played pro ball (one NFL/one MLB) and with many friends/ 10+ ex teammates who were pro athletes, I have a different perspective than most. Most of the touts, if not all, have NEVER played any of these sports. I dont guarantee anything and nothing is a sure bet, but I do have a pretty good hit rate on Top plays and those I do deep dive analysis. Hope this helps. And bet what you can afford, you will never see a GOY from me as I dont want anyone blowing everything on one game. Be Prudent!
CSU Bakersfield/Fresno State Over 132-115 (Top play)
