Friday NBA lock inside!

jdub6810 · Jan 16, 2009

record 3-4 -2.5 units

This play is dedicated to alladin!

SUNS ML (-380) risking 19 units to win 5

Suns coming off a bad beat in Denver. They had that game won, but the stupid refs didn't call the flagrant foul on Grant Hill in the final seconds, sending the game to OT, where they ran out of gas. TWolves have won some recent games, but at the expense of the bottom of the league. Suns should at least win this one with Shaq back in tonight. Why lay points when you can lay big units instead!

GL on your plays :103631605

Cheddarforme · Jan 16, 2009

Why moneyline? :think2:

jdub6810 · Jan 16, 2009

just pulling for a W...i don't trust the Suns to cover big lines at home. Hope they are not too tired from last night to at least get a W because they have come out flat so far...

What'sthegoodword · Jan 16, 2009

If you don't trust them to cover the spread, and fear they could be tired, why risk so much for so little... they are losing now, with a few minutes before halftime....Just seems like a lot of units to risk for that payoff, if you don't feel 100% confident.

But, I'm not on the game, so I'll be rooting for you...

BOL!:toast:

GW

jdub6810 · Jan 16, 2009

i didn't factor fatigue in the ML, just that the Suns are god awful at covering big spreads at home. They should get this W but this first half has me

:smoking:

jdub6810 · Jan 17, 2009

Extremely frustrated with my performance this week. Last 3 days is a microcosm of why I fail at this game. I can’t stick within a set of parameters I set to pick games & manage money, so I create massive winnings for the bookie instead of myself. My wallet took a big shit tonight.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice

ffice" /><o

></o

>
Looking back, this thread is a classic jinx thread. Locks, big units, no thoughts that the piece of shit dog might actually win, that the reliable false favorite shits the bed. Nobody can be successful very long hoisting 4 units to win 1. I’ve most too much money too many times losing this way.
<o

></o

>
I know the road to success in the game I love to play. I see it in the sharps on this board. Discipline & sound judgment. The best cappers base their picks on the players & matchups, don’t worry too much about public sentiment & line moves. They maintain a narrow range of risk & let the plays determine if they end up winning or losing the season. Me? I am impulsive & have no fear of going all in on a play.
<o

></o

>
I do have a winning picking system. Its simple & anyone can do it. All you have to do is ride strong dogs/favorites & fade false favorites/dead dogs. It’s easy to identify these teams. Just pull up a list of teams records ATS. The top 5 ATS teams are the strongest favorites & dogs. The bottom 5 ATS teams are full of false favorites & dead dogs that throw in the towel. Cap these teams & determine when they are hot & cold, & make your picks accordingly. Follow who enters the list & who exits the list. Over the season it changes but not that much. Manage your units so the picks make the money instead of the MM.
<o

></o

>
Usually I throw in the towel at this point & pay my guy, go on break for 6 months then come back & do the same mistakes over again. Not this time, not this time. I am going to use this board to perfect my capping & eventually become a sharp. There is money to be made in this great game we play. :103631605