Friday Hoops

[LowTide]

YTD 87-72 +13.5 (Plays rated 1-4 units)

3*New Mexico +6.5
For the season,the Lobos hold their opponents to around 43% shooting.In their 2 road losses to UNLV and Wyoming,their opponents shot 59% and 55% respectively.Bad defense on the road or just catching a couple of teams on hot nights?Will San Diego State do the same as thet try to break a 3 game losing streak?

Granger and Sanders will be an interesting matchup inside,but I like Granger's athleticism against Sanders' strength.I also feel that the Lobo guards are much more consistent with their shooting and overall play.I see the Lobos as the slightly more talented team and will take the points here.Of course,I have been wrong before-72 times to be exact.

[This message was edited by Low Tide on March 11, 2004 at 11:34 PM.]

 

[LowTide]

YTD 88-72+16.3

3*SMiss +1.5
SMiss has the inside muscle with Gaines and Johnson while Houston has the 7 footer Ferguson,who weighs all of 200 pounds.Houston's 4 or 5 other top scorers are all guards so the Golden Eagles should control the boards.As for Houston's shooting,they shoot 40% overall and 28% from three range.USM does not get a lot of scoring from their backcourt,but they do shoot 38% from behind the arc and although they are not great ball handlers, they are certainly better than Houston.(Houston 1:1.4 assist/turnover ratio).

Bottom line:Houston has a pair of 2 point wins over South Fla. and ECU(both are winless in Conf-USA).SMiss has a win over Memphis and a road win at Marquette.Slight concern with this being USM's third consecutive road game,but still think Houston will have to play over their heads to win this.

Clement Carter has been suspended for this game,but it does not change my selection.

[This message was edited by Low Tide on February 03, 2004 at 09:21 AM.]

 

[LowTide]

YTD 89-72+19.3

3*Memphis+4
It's hard not to take the points here when Garcia(best player) and Dean(best 3 point shooter) are out.Even with a healthy Louisville teams,I figured this line to be 2.5 at most.Memphis was flat last time out,but may have been looking ahead to this.I like that they have a senior point guard to run the show in a big game.This is a good game for you moneyline players to take a shot at.

 

[LowTide]

Adding:
1*Iowa State +6.5
Would rate this higher if there was not a letdown factor after the Kansas win.Still have to take the points with what I have seen with Oklahoma.The Sooners are small and don't shoot the ball well.Iowa State has a nice inside-outside balance and should stay inside this number.

 

[skinnybutdangerous+]

I believe that Garcia is definitely playing and I wouldn't count out Dean either. I like the Tigers in this spot but I wouldn't base your decision on these guys being out. There is no talk of Garcia being out.

GL

 

[LowTide]

Don Best has quoted Pitino as saying that Garcia will not even make the flight because his ankle will swell.And I did not base my decision solely on this-I would play Memphis anyway.

 

[skinnybutdangerous+]

I stand corrected if Pitino is telling the truth. But for some reason I don't trust him. The Memphis media hasn't mentioned once that Garcia isn't playing.

 

[LowTide]

Might play multiple plays tonight,but have not narrowed down these leans.Anyone that has an angle on these,please share.

ArkansasLR-5-Not a good spot for a poor South Alabama squad playing their 3rd straight on the road.

Boise-5 Broncos should have won at Tulsa,but shot under 50% from the line.Tulsa has not come closer than 7 on the road in conference play.

Ill-Chi-2.5 Just feel this is the game where Wisc.-Mil.'s conference perfection goes down in flames.

Rice+3.5 Rice handled them easily earlier in the year and I really don't have any respect for UTEP.Maybe I should.

Cal-Poly+14 Have loved playing on Utah State all year,but feel this number is a little steep considering Cal-Poly's early road wins.

Northridge-1

Santa Barbara-2 Idaho off big comeback win against Idaho State.Letdown?

 

[LowTide]

YTD 90-73 +21.2

Have locked in on this at CRIS.

3.5*Seton Hall-7
Situation:
Seton Hall off a no show at WV.Rutgers on a 4 game win streak.

Matchup:Lamizana is Rutgers' only go to inside guy and Whitney matches up well with him.The Pirates will have a big advantage in the backcourt with the veteran Barrett.For Rutgers,Shields can be very inconsistent with his shot and Douby does not play as well on the road as you might expect of a freshman.Knights are also a little looser with the ball.

Bottom line:Rutgers is not a good shooting team and it will probably show here.The Pirates simply have too many weapons with 5 players averaging in double figures.At only 4-3 in the conference,I think this game will have their full attention even though they have Pitt on deck.


2*New Mexico-7.5
CSU has gotten fat at home, winning 3 straight,including a 1 point win over Wyoming last time out,while New Mexico is off two road losses.CSU will be without Nelson and I can't see them rising to the occasion again, especially at the Pit.

2*Michigan State-4
MSU playing well and need every game at this point.Spartans are weak on the boards,but should not be the deciding factor here.Ohio State off two wins,but I think Izzo keeps his guys focused against an inferior team.

1*Missouri+3
Taking the bait,jumping in the trap,etc.,etc.,I know.

Analyzing some other games.
Oregon-Oregon State
Payback game for the Ducks,but they will let anybody shoot 47% as they just will not play defense.OSU beat them on the boards and handled the ball much better in the first matchup.

Charlotte-ECU
Hate the way Charlotte wins sometimes,heaving all the threes.ECU sux,but they have been a tough out at home.

Auburn-Georgia
I am trying to find reasons to like Auburn because they might play a good game sometime this century,but they are hard to come by.Who ****ing knows with these two teams.

Florida-Vanderbilt
Like the spot for the Gators.

WF-UNC
Tough spot for the Tarheels after draining game with Duke.

Will update later.

[This message was edited by Low Tide on February 06, 2004 at 11:28 PM.]

 

[LowTide]

2*Charlotte-4
Gonna go with this.Still found 4 at SOS.It's an archaic site,but the lines are sometimes favorable.

 

[LowTide]

YTD 94-74+29.6

2*BC-4.5(1st)
2*BC-8.5
Not much handicapping to do here.The St.John's players that are available average a combined 31 points.I don't why this is even on the board.

Good luck today.

 

[harrington]

I here what you are saying but I will put this one into the buyer beware column. This one looks to good to believe so I am passing but good luck to you man!!

 

[LowTide]

YTD 96-74+33.6

2*Kansas+5(buy.5)
OSU is well-coached.They get good looks at the basket and don't force a lot of threes.Kansas has not played well on the road and is not a good shooting three point team so they may be in trouble if they fall behind.That said,I see the Jayhawks with a big advantage inside with Simean and others.They will control the boards and have the athletes to pressure the ball and make OSU take tougher shots.This is a big game for Self as he played for OSU and was an assistant for Sutton.Of course,he will not be playing,but I think Kansas can win outright.

1*Seton Hall-1
I played the Pirates big against Rutgers and I like them here,but I have underestimated Pitt's toughness all year,so just the one star.

Also looking at New Mexico because I have been on them lately.Twice in the last week,to be exact.Be careful with TCU.USF matches up better with the Horned Frogs.TCU has one decent post player and 2 guards who like to shoot threes,but not much else.They are in a letdown spot after the Marquette win and USF is still playing hard to get first conference win.I think USF wins and then gets annihilated by Cincy as they struggle against teams that pressure the ball(Louisville and UAB).

 

[LowTide]

2*New Mexico-4.5
I am going to tread cautiously on this game as Chiotti's status has not been announced and Wyoming is not bothered by the Pit as they have won 8 of the last nine in this series.

 

[LowTide]

YTD 97-75+33.2

3*Princeton-2.5
Tigers can't afford to look ahead to Cornell as there is no conference tournament.Hopefully,the rare Tuesday scheduling will be more disruptful to Penn(0-2 on the road in Ivy play).This game could be tight,but I will go with the mindnumbingly patient offense of the Tigers and the home court advantage.

 

[oldmanTED]

Low Tide:

Just wanted to inform you that I just completed a response to your inquiry in my thread and apologize for the delay. I see you are doing very well with your plays. Great work and good luck in the future.

 

[LowTide]

These are leans that I will be selecting from.We have arrived at the time where certain teams cannot afford to look ahead to anyone.

Indiana-3.5
Hoosiers have away game with Purdue on deck so they better get so momentum by disposing of inferior PSU squad.

Dayton+14.5
I will definitely play this game,probably as a 2*.I will write up my reasons later.

GW-10.5
It doesn't matter how disinterested a team may be,Fordham seems to lay down for everyone,even at home.

Cincinatti-26.5
South Florida lost to Louisville by 45 and UAB by 37.With Cincinatti playing the same style,I foresee a similar outcome.

Western Michigan-3.5
See line value.Figured it at -5.5.

Memphis-3.5
Love playing against ECU.

St.Louis-4.5
Billikens look to end losing streak.

Have some others but very tired.

 

[LowTide]

YTD 97-76+29.9 plays are are rated(1-4)

3*Indiana-3.5
Must win game for the Hoosiers.Don't see how PSU will contain Wright.

2*Dayton+14.5
The Hawks have a better backcourt than anyone so the Flyers have to have an advantage elsewhere for me to bet on them and they do.With the 7 footer Finn and the 6'8 Waleskowski,the Flyers outrebound their opponents by an average of 7.7 per game.Add in the fact that the Hawks are outrebounded by 2.5 a game and one can conclude that the Flyers will control the glass.Dayton also plays good defense (allow 40% shooting).Dayton's backcourt of Ramod Marshall and Mark Jones have both posted career highs this year(27 and 20) so they will need to deliver tonight.In the end,this is too many points to give in this situation.

2*GW-10.5
Fordham has home losses of 21,19,and 10(Dayton,RI,and Temple.They have struggled from the perimeter after losing John Blackgrove to injury.GW has a week off after this one,so no reason for them not to come in and pound the Rams.

2*Cincinatti-26.5
May upgrade when Williams' status is announced.Too many athletes to run at an injury riddled team that gets destroyed by pressing teams.It's a lot of points,but after seeing the Bulls play UAB in person,it does not seem that risky.

2*Memphis-3.5
ECU has been a tough out at home despite their losing ways,losing to UAB by 3,Depaul by 5,Louisville by 10,and finally by 6 to Charlotte in overtime.Memphis has a road game at Marquette on deck,but need to win to keep the pace in the conference.It's either going to be a blowout or ECU finally wins and I am going to take the better team.

Will add later.
Good luck tonight,guys.

 

[oldmanTED]

Low Tide:

With you on Dayton tonight. Good luck with all your plays.

As a follow up to our discussion yesterday regarding money management, I just noticed that SportsSavant started a thread in the Offshore Forum with the subject title "How to use the RX to make Money" wherein he extracted a thread that I wrote for the RX in December entitled "Money Management - Middle to Advanced Levels". It is a detailed breakdown of my entire 2002 football season showing that with a winning percentage of around 55%, my bankroll increased 94%. I meant to refer you to this write-up yesterday but it slipped this oldmans mind. Hope you enjoy it.

 

[Kojak]

I am with you on Indiana, Dayton, and Memphis. We only disagree on GW/Fordham. By the way Missouri covered last night. In my thread you said you would never play them but what I have done is limit my plays on them to solid home games. Best of luck to you and thanks again for your support on my mistake. You are a class person.