Friday: Hit explosion coming to Comerica Park

[ofred]

Still haven't updated YTD, but Thursday was a very good day. I'll have more time soon to look into these MLB games.

Friday night, good weather, and I can't wait to see the over/ under on the Tiger- Rockies game. Get it tonight and take the 5 inning over tomorrow morning. Nothing is guaranteed, but here's what looks good:
1) Casey Crosby, the young Tiger prospect, will some day develop his pitching repertoire, but right now he throws fastball after fastball, and when he misses and walks guys, he throws fastballs down the middle of the plate. He has 8 walks in his first 7 mlb innings, and hasn't recorded many Ks. Major leaguers will leave his mediocre secondary pitches alone, and wait on the fastball.
2) Quick. Guess who the Rockies number 1 and 2 pitchers are in their rotation. You can't- why? Because everyone in their rotation is a number 5, a AAA pitcher or somebody's castoff. That's why the Rockies hit so well. It's the only way they can win. Jeff Francis truly fits in on this staff. He was recently cut, let go by the pitcher-needy Royals last year, throws high 80s, and was absolutely trashed by the Angels in his first start.
3) Both the Tigers and Rockies are hitting fairly well in the past week. (Rockies have only struggled vs. top quality guys).
4) Both bullpens are mediocre at best.
5) Comerica Park is a decent hitters park.

* I don't know the number yet for the totals, but I'm on it.

 

[ofred]

It's 9.5. 2 units on the over.
Also, one unit on the over for first 5 innings tomorrow morning. Should be about 5.
I don 't like to bet this many units on a total, but I'll make an exception here.

 

[GurlGoneWild]

bol oh FRED

 

[ofred]

Tampa -1 for two units. I think we'll see a repeat of last week's game between the same 2 pitchers. Matt Moore has unbelievable stuff that is making him more effective as the season goes. Last game, with a 9-0 lead, he got a little complacent and gave up a 3 run homer. Until then, he was shutting down the Marlins. In his last 34 IPs, 43 strikeouts- mostly vs. good AL teams. Of course, the Marlins don't need a future star to shut them down. They have possibly the worst run production in the past 2 and 1/2 weeks in the majors. Hanley Ramirez has cooled down. Zambrano may be unraveling. In his last 21 IPs, he's given up 18 ERs. With his velocity down, are his secondary pitches enough? He and Ozzie Guillen are made for each other and their philosophy of: It's all about me. I can't hide my bias against the Marlins. Lack of fan support, an idiot manager, a head case has-been star hitter(Ramirez) and now Zambrano. Add to that a beautiful city with nice beaches and hot chicks- and it's no wonder the Marlins can't concentrate on baseball (I'm only half kidding). The Rays, meanwhile are coming off an embarrassment to the Mets and are likely to rebound here. They play well as a team.

 

[ofred]

NYY/ Nats- under 7.5. One unit. Its seems that beginning of series games are more likely to be low scoring, and this one includes one very hot pitcher(Gio) and one improved pitcher (Hughes). With a pitcher at the bottom of their lineups that already include some iffy hitters, and 2 good bullpens, I think 7.5 is a good number. The Yankees really haven't been killing it, just winning. The Nats have won lately mostly on great pitching. One unit.

 

[ofred]

Cinn/ Mets: over 4 first 5 innings. This at even money is a good number. Both teams are hitting very well right now, and did so this past week against AL pitching. Mets hit some pretty good Tampa starters. Phillips and Votto are extremely hot, as is Wright of the Mets. Even Ike Davis is hitting (it had to happen sometime). Both Gee and Arroyo are pitching better than their talent warrants, and I expect one of them at least to have a rough going early on against 2 hot hitting teams. Arroyo is also a pretty good hitting pitcher- so it's like having a DH almost.

 

[varkeyboy]

Cinn/ Mets: over 4 first 5 innings. This at even money is a good number. Both teams are hitting very well right now, and did so this past week against AL pitching. Mets hit some pretty good Tampa starters. Phillips and Votto are extremely hot, as is Wright of the Mets. Even Ike Davis is hitting (it had to happen sometime). Both Gee and Arroyo are pitching better than their talent warrants, and I expect one of them at least to have a rough going early on against 2 hot hitting teams. Arroyo is also a pretty good hitting pitcher- so it's like having a DH almost.

LOVE this play! Been staring at it for a while...

 

[ofred]

The previous play was one unit(Red/ Mets)

Pirates. ML (+130). One unit on the small side. The Indians seem to be slipping, and not one player is hot right now. Hanahan returns from the DL, their DH Chisenhall is slumping, Santana slumping, Damon looks washed up, Kotchman is a big lefty singles hitter, and frankly they are having a power outage as of the last 2 weeks. The Pirates have McDonald going who may be the best pitcher under the radar in the mlb. He always has a quality start. His command is so good now that it's like a different pitcher. Masterson is capable of also pitching well, but the Pirates are hitting well (for the Pirates). Only concern is the AL/ NL angle. Both teams with solid BPs.

 

[varkeyboy]

LOVE this play! Been staring at it for a while...

But my boy CT Sharp disagrees, so i'll stay away from this.

 

[ofred]

LAD/ Chicago WS- under 6 (-135) Paying extra juice for the 6. Sale has been extraordinary for the Sox, and may be the best young pitcher in the majors right now. The Dodgers hitting cooled off a little this week, though are decent against lefties. But this lefty is special. And he can go deeper into ball games. Kershaw has been off a little, but the Sox are not exactly hitting against any good pitchers. If you look at their recent high scoring games, they're against mostly poor pitchers. Also they only hit .229 vs. lefties. Kershaw is overdue for a good outing. Dodgers BP has been very good. Dodger Stadium is also a pitcher's ballpark. First game of a series and few of these batters have seen these pitchers before. One unit.

 

[ofred]

Atlanta- 1/2 first 5 innings. One unit. Tiger game not looking the slugfest I thought it would be- but it's early.

 

[ofred]

Now the hits are flying in Comerica. Reds game at 4 already.