FRIDAY BET O THE DAY. LAKERS/MINNY

OccamsRazor · May 20, 2004

RECORD YTD 67-52 (.563)
SIDES 42-34 (.552)
TOTALS 25-18 (.581)

Won last time out here as Miami+4'in a must win home dog position cashed.

Lakers, .4, Fisher, Spurs Out, Dream Team, Crown the Lakers. What a team, why even play tonight? Short memory public loves a winner don't they, lucky for us. Lets get down to it.

Lakers and Minny split the regular season series 1-1 when Kobe and Shaq both played. Minny dominated at home and Lakers dominated at Staples. Minny is playing at home tonight where for the first time this season they find themselves as Underdogs,(0-0 ATS) No respect. Lakers are on the road where they are and have been all season an overpriced favorite, 11-21 ATS (.343). Lakers 2-3 ATS away in playoffs, 3-7 ATS away last ten overall. In gambling and in life, there are 2 sides to the coin. Lakers rested, Flip: Lakers rusty and traveling. Minny drained from a 7th game win; Flip: Minny on a hot confidence building roll and at home. Pick your poison.

I like that Minny is hitting their 3s specially at home and lead the playoffs in 3 point shooting. I like that the Lakers can't hit freethrows on the road and are horrible at the line overall, HackaShaq, here it comes. Minny lost to Sac at home in their first game last series and will be focused tonight determined not to make the same mistake, call that Sac loss a learning experience. Lakers wanted the Kings more than Minny and that I believe will be to Minnys advantage. Minny bounced out by these Lakers last playoffs, payback time. Both teams growing in confidence as the playoffs have progressed.

Checked the court calender and Kobe is not scheduled to fly into Minny at the last second and drop a 45 on the court, advantage Minny.

Minnys home cooking, coupled with payback, and no respect leads me to Minny tonight. Adding to the mix are the public Lakers problems covering on the road as favorites. Minny wants this more than the Lakers. If Minny losses tonight, my next bet will be Minny at home Sunday.

MINNY+2-109

winkyduck · May 20, 2004

couldn't disagree with you more here - on many things you wrote.

i LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE the other side here.

i don't see how this game will be close - i really don't. minny can "want it" all they want - but "want" and "get" are 2 different things. i "want" to marry jennifer garner.i sense i won't "get" to do so. but i have a better chance of marrying her than the wolves do of winning this series. i also think you saying if minny loses G1 you will come back with them in G2 is also bad - for this series is NOT going to be a long one (nor will the next one, either when the lakers take on the WNBA champ).

we get an emotionally, mentally and physically exhausted home team i believe will still be celebrating their G7 win over suckramento taking on a team that has had almost 1 week off and will enter the game rested and ready to show the entire nba "WE are the ones to beat - don't you forget it!" shaq might score 50 in this one, too, with the stiffs the wolves play at center.

i got LA @ pick wednesday night. the fact they are -2 means i lost some value - but as long as i lay no more than -2 i can live with it.

as i said - i really don't see how this game will be close. i see LA winning by 2B digits.

not only am i on:

Lakers -2 for the game

i think an even better play is:

Lakers -1 (First 1/2)

ESQAJM · May 20, 2004

Winky: I played BB for many years as a kid-3 or 4 games a week. The terms mentally and physically exhausted are overrated and meaningless. When you are in your 20's or early 30's and in the physical shape these athletes are in, all you need is 1 good night's sleep and a day of rest and you are ready to go all night in your next game. I wouldn't base a pick or even give any weight to the fact that Minn is tired.
ESQAJM

Anonymous1 · May 21, 2004

or..what about peyton and malone...were they in the games you mentioned with shaq and kobe...

OccamsRazor · May 21, 2004

Cheapseats, Yeah Payton and Malone were also there for both games.

Agree with your points Esquire. I also played ball and rode momentum building big wins deep into tournaments. My teams in both football and baskets had trouble getting started in games after a short layoff. I'd rather play right away than wait for momentum draining layoffs. Rust never sleeps but settles in quietly. Lakers are notorious slow starters in games and this short layoff will compound that fact. The layoff vs tired angle is just one many variables to consider though, what I really like is the fact that the Lakers consistently suck on the road and I'll depend on them to play to form tonight.

To All: When I said that Minny wants this more than the Lakers what I was referring to was intensity.(I couldn't think of the word) Intensity. The home crowd and feeding off that 7th game win adds up to tremendous intensity for Minny.

dolphin · May 21, 2004

Care with the Lakers road fav results...

With rest they were 2-1 down the stretch, then 1-1 v. Rockets (although lucky in the 4th/OT) Most games were without Malone and sometimes without Shaq. The first month was a case of overpriced AND getting used to each other. Last year, I think they were 1-0 or 2-0 as tiny favs v. Minny away in the playoffs. Prior to that they had been 8-1 as road favs. in the Conference Semi-final round through the finals under Jackson. Every year is different, but I wouldn't bet based on supposed road fav. probs of Lakers.

Also, LA was 1-1 v. Minny with Malone, but the loss was his first game back off the IR. He scored ok, but had just 2 rebs and 1 assist. AND Laker nemesis Hudson scorched the nets that night.

amado · May 21, 2004

good luck occam nice to sse you . long time out of the game

News by Amado

winkyduck · May 22, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ESQAJM:
Winky: I played BB for many years as a kid-3 or 4 games a week. The terms mentally and physically exhausted are overrated and meaningless. When you are in your 20's or early 30's and in the physical shape these athletes are in, all you need is 1 good night's sleep and a day of rest and you are ready to go all night in your next game. I wouldn't base a pick or even give any weight to the fact that Minn is tired.
ESQAJM<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

no that the game is over - still feel that way - or maybe i was right here - minny was spent wednesday and came out flat and tired here!

NEWPORT · May 22, 2004

It is truly a shame that the prayer from Fischer went in against SA, BECAUSE THE LAKERS SHOULD WALTZ RIGHT INTO THE FINALS, AND YES WIN IT......THE NBA PRODUCT..what a downer...ONLY A FEW MORE WEEKS FOR GAMBLING

ESQAJM · May 22, 2004

Winky: I think Minn tired more from the physical nature of LA's game than in not being rested for the game. Kobe is a tough player to guard. He exhausts a defender. Same with Shaq. But you are probably right in the sense that the tough 7 games against the Nets did have some effect. Like Razor said, it is only one of many handicapping factors and I personally do not give it much weight.
I personally feel that LA has got their s--t together and is playing like a team that wants to win the championship.When Shaq and Kobe are playing like that, no one is going to beat them.
ESQAJM

OccamsRazor · May 22, 2004

Credit to the Lakers last night. Their 3 point shooting showed up last night. Midway through the third, game tied and the Lakers hit 3 straight 3 pointers and one 2 pointer for an 11-0 run, game over. More impressive was the defense that the Lakers showed up with last night,(they usually save that for home). In the first quarter, Minny had 4 TOs in 5 posssesions curtesy of the Laker defense. Jackson's defensive game plan centered around double teaming Garnett showed why is considered the best in the business. Oh yeah, Shaq hit 9 out of 11 freethrows. Cassell's 3 pointers kept coming up short a sign of lack of strenght in the shot. His back injuries are affecting his play. Laker defense is allowing 84.50 poinst per game in the playoffs second to Detroit's 84.25 and 10 points less than they allowed in the regular season. The team is hot and even though I said, I would take Minny on Sunday if they lost Friday, I retract that statement. I'm not stepping in front of this speeding Laker train, 5 wins in a row and all cylinders firing. I like Minny to come back but not willing to put money on them on Sunday. I will most likely go UNDER as I don't believe Schaq can hit 81% again and Minny will bring the defense and play with nervous caution.