Like I said may times before here, I post my plays in order to keep me in check from overbetting and chasing. Tonight was a great example of overbetting. I had Capped the card Thursday night and nothing struck my fancy, 2 UNDER bets looked promising, CINCY/PITT UNDER 9 and SD/STLOU UNDER 8. After looking at the pitcher's high ERAs I decided to pass. (Both went UNDER by the way). There was going to be no bet for Friday. My son needed a car so we went car shopping all day. I came back home at about 10 minutes before the first pitch of the first games. I got on the computer just to look at the lines. Mistake number 1: One of my rules is no bet unless I have Capped the game at least 1 hour prior to first pitch, tip off, kickoff etc. The rule is for impulse control... broke it.
Then the 10' NYY/BOSTON Total caught my eye. I'm Capping it with 5 minutes to go. NYY and Pettit look like the obvious choice with Boston's Tomato Can Penny on the mound ( I had just bet against Penny in his last start and won. The main reason being is that he sucks consistently) Did I bet the Yankess? No that 10' was looking too high. I rationalized that the Tomato can was pitching at home and he was going to pitch better. Wrong again, my fucking opinion, "he is at home and is going to pitch better." is just that an opinion in the face of the fact that Penny is a washed up Tomato can, my opinion does not change fact. All this fantastic Capping is being done on the fly in 5 minutes. I choose UNDER 10' for no reason other than it looked too high, I ignore all the evidence that Penny is most likely going to get rocked and that 11 might be reached just by the Yankees themselves.The results speak for themselves. 5 minute Capping does not work. The Total ended at 31 and the Yankees had 11 by the 5th inning. Penny gave up 8 runs in 4 innings.
hno:
Keep an eye out for Penny's next start. Thanks for listening to my rant. Time to go Capp and try to right the ship today.
Then the 10' NYY/BOSTON Total caught my eye. I'm Capping it with 5 minutes to go. NYY and Pettit look like the obvious choice with Boston's Tomato Can Penny on the mound ( I had just bet against Penny in his last start and won. The main reason being is that he sucks consistently) Did I bet the Yankess? No that 10' was looking too high. I rationalized that the Tomato can was pitching at home and he was going to pitch better. Wrong again, my fucking opinion, "he is at home and is going to pitch better." is just that an opinion in the face of the fact that Penny is a washed up Tomato can, my opinion does not change fact. All this fantastic Capping is being done on the fly in 5 minutes. I choose UNDER 10' for no reason other than it looked too high, I ignore all the evidence that Penny is most likely going to get rocked and that 11 might be reached just by the Yankees themselves.The results speak for themselves. 5 minute Capping does not work. The Total ended at 31 and the Yankees had 11 by the 5th inning. Penny gave up 8 runs in 4 innings.
hno:Keep an eye out for Penny's next start. Thanks for listening to my rant. Time to go Capp and try to right the ship today.
OR, you can google it...
i am pretty sure Novato uses it very successfully here..
it works for .500 bettors that do not endure long losing streaks... is designed for wagering one bet at a time..
i think that u create a chain for your bets, in this manner..
10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10
set your chain up to look like this, you decide the length and the amounts for your chain..
your first bet is the outside numbers...
so it would be for $20 (the two outside 10's)... if you win, you cross both of them off... if you lose, you add the losing wager to the end of the chain...
so if you lost the first $20 wager.. you would add the $20 to the end and make the 2nd bet for $30.....
you cross off 2 bets with a win and add 1 bet if you lose...
i am pretty sure thats correct but look it up..
GW
i am pretty sure Novato uses it very successfully here..
it works for .500 bettors that do not endure long losing streaks... is designed for wagering one bet at a time..
i think that u create a chain for your bets, in this manner..
10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10
set your chain up to look like this, you decide the length and the amounts for your chain..
your first bet is the outside numbers...
so it would be for $20 (the two outside 10's)... if you win, you cross both of them off... if you lose, you add the losing wager to the end of the chain...
so if you lost the first $20 wager.. you would add the $20 to the end and make the 2nd bet for $30.....
you cross off 2 bets with a win and add 1 bet if you lose...
i am pretty sure thats correct but look it up..
GW
