STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 9/26/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #26
•Twins' Hughes Turns Down Bonus: And that, Minnesota general manager Terry Ryan said, shows you what kind of person Phil Hughes is. The Minnesota right-hander, whose eight innings of work Wednesday left him one out shy of what he needed for a $500,000 bonus, turned down an opportunity to get one out in relief this weekend at Detroit. "Ownership and (Ryan) extended the offer to let me throw out of the bullpen, and I just didn't feel it was right," said Hughes, who earned $8 million as part of a three-year, $24 million deal he signed with the Twins as a free agent last winter. "I owe too much to this organization for the next two years to be risking getting hurt for an incentive. For whatever reason, it's just not meant to be." Hughes thus ends his season with 209 2/3 innings pitched and the bonus kicked in at 210. The player/owner bargaining agreement does not allow the awarding of bonuses in these cases.
Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire consulted with Twins owner Jim Pohlad and team president Dave St. Peter and offered Hughes the chance to get more club money. A rainstorm Wednesday prevented Hughes from coming out to pitch in the ninth. "He decided after a little thought, he just wasn't going to do it. So I respect that," Ryan said. "It is a decision that would be difficult to make if you're a player." "It's very generous and says a lot about this organization," Hughes said. "I owe my 100 percent health to this organization over the next two years and I'm not going to do anything to risk that: throwing out of the bullpen, warming up in the bullpen, short rest. It's just not the right thing to do." Hughes was 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA and was one of only three modern era pitchers to have as many or more wins than walks during an entire season. Hughes walked just 16 batters this year. His strikeout/walk ratio of 11.63 becomes the new major league record.
•Josh Willingham Plans To Retire At Season’s End, Source Says: Josh Willingham insists he hasn’t made any decisions about his playing future. However, an associate of the 35-year-old outfielder/designated hitter for the Kansas City Royals says he has told people close to him that he is “100 percent retiring” once this season ends. Willingham, one of just three players in Twins history to hit at least 35 home runs in a season, disputed that version in a text message to the Pioneer Press. “I haven’t made a decision yet and don’t know what I’m going to do,” Willingham wrote. Slowed by a groin injury that has limited him to two starts since Sept. 11, Willingham is closing in on the first postseason appearance in his 11-year career. Only seven active players have more career games than Willingham (1,146) without a postseason appearance. Closing out a three-year, $21 million contract signed with the Twins after the 2011 season, Willingham was traded to Kansas City on Aug. 11 after the Royals claimed him on waivers.
The Twins received Double-A right-hander Jason Adam in the deal, which saw the Royals pick up the remaining $1.836 million of the $7 million Willingham is owed this season. A right-handed power hitter, Willingham hit 35 homers and drove in 110 runs in his 2012 Twins debut. Only Harmon Killebrew (eight times) has exceeded that homer total in Twins history. Willingham was unable to follow that up due to nagging injuries to his knee (2013) and wrist (2014). He had a combined on-base/slugging percentage of .761 in 23 games (83 plate appearances) with the Royals. For the Twins this year, Willingham hit .210 with a .345 on-base percentage and 12 home runs. For his career, Willingham enters the final weekend of the regular season with a .253 batting average, .359 on-base percentage and .465 slugging percentage. He has hit 195 career home runs and is 12 hits shy of 1,000 for a career that began as a 17th-round draft pick of the Florida Marlins in 2000. Willingham, who played at the University of North Alabama, also has spent time with the Washington Nationals and Oakland A’s.
•Trevor Plouffe Breaks Forearm While Making Tag: Despite another lost Twins season, third baseman Trevor Plouffe had self-direction to finish the campaign strong. Then in Wednesday's 2-1 win over Arizona, his left forearm snapped, ending his season with four games remaining. "It sucks for him," said second baseman Brian Dozier. "I know he wanted to finish the year off with us. That is something that we looked forward to the past week or so." Dozier and Plouffe shared the same goal of playing spoiler in this weekend's four-game series against Detroit. In the season's last weekend, the Tigers and the Kansas City Royals are battling for the American League Central crown. Plouffe's broken arm -- which Dozier called "nasty" -- came when he attempted to tag Arizona's A.J. Pollock at third base in the sixth inning.
Plouffe left the game immediately and will visit a doctor Thursday to determine the best course of treatment and rehab. "That was a weird play," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He goes to make a tag and ends up breaking his arm." Before he left, Plouffe contributed to both of the Twins' runs. In the first inning, his was the first of three consecutive walks that helped plate Danny Santana with the game's first run. In the second inning, Plouffe's sacrifice fly to center field scored Eduardo Escobar. Plouffe added another walk in the fifth. The injury curtails the best offensive season in Plouffe's career. In his fifth year, the 28-year-old recorded career highs in hits (134), runs batted in (80), doubles (40) and batting average.
•A's 1B Moss Needs Hip Surgery: Oakland Athletics first baseman Brandon Moss will require offseason microfracture surgery on his right hip. "It was worse than we thought it would be," said Moss, who had an MRI and a cortisone shot before Wednesday's game. "The shot should help me get through the rest of the season, but it won't fix it." The Athletics remain in the thick of the wild-card race with just a handful of games to be played. While Moss was unavailable Wednesday, he is expected to be able to be available to play this weekend against Texas. Moss, an All-Star this season, said the previously unreported problem has affected him much of the year and that an MRI showed so much torn cartilage that he has bone-on-bone issues. Before the All-Star break, Moss was hitting .268 and led the Athletics with 21 home runs and 66 RBIs. He's only hitting .179 since the break. Moss could be available to play Friday at Texas.
•Angels' Slugger Hamilton: I'll Be Ready For Postseason: Even though he has played in only one game since Sept. 5, Josh Hamilton said there is "no doubt" that he will play when the Los Angeles Angels start postseason play. "There's no sense in me coming back and having the issue," Hamilton told the Orange County Register. "I can just use the extra days and then play. I know you guys think, 'Well, he hasn't had any at-bats, how's he going to feel, blah blah blah.' It doesn't really matter." The Angels slugger has been sidelined with a sore shoulder and a rib injury. The pain is gone, Hamilton said Wednesday. Hamilton expects to participate in a simulated game before the division series begins on Oct. 2. He also said his role will not only be that of the designated hitter, but he expects to play in the field, too. Manager Mike Scioscia downplayed the idea that Hamilton needed to see some real-game pitching before being inserted into the lineup for the playoffs. "Ideally, we would like to get him some at-bats," Scioscia said. "But it's not like spring training, where he's been down for four or five months."
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Marlins-Nationals - 1:05 PM
--Cosart is 3-2, 2.43 in his last six starts. Heaney is 0-3, 6.53 in four starts.
--Fister is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three. Hill is making first MLB start; he's allowed two runs 4.1 IP in two relief stints. He was 11-7, 2.81 in 24 AAA starts.
--Marlins lost five of their last seven games.
--Washington won ten of its last twelve games.
--Nine of last eleven Washington games stayed under total.
•Braves-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Santana is 0-3, 7.31 in his last three starts.
--Williams is 4-2, 2.74 in his last seven starts.
--Braves lost 11 of their last 13 games.
--Philly lost five of their last seven games.
--Seven of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total.
•Pirates-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Worley is 3-0, 3.00 in his last four starts.
--Leake is 1-2, 8.14 in his last four starts.
--Pirates won eight of their last ten games.
--Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
--Four of last five Worley starts stayed under the total.
•Cubs-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Jokisch is making first MLB start; he was 9-10, 3.58 in 26 AAA starts this year. He allowed two runs in 10.1 IP in three relief stints in majors.
--Nelson is 0-4, 5.40 in his last couple starts.
--Cubs lost seven of their last eight road games.
--Milwaukee lost six of its last eight games.
--Eight of last nine Milwaukee games stayed under total.
•Cardinals-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Wacha is 0-1, 6.94 in his last three starts.
--Cahill is 0-4, 9.41 in his last five starts.
--St Louis lost three of its last four games.
--Diamondbacks lost eight of their last nine games.
--Seven of last ten Cardinal games stayed under the total.
•Rockies-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Lyles is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
--Hernandez is 0-2, 8.40 in his last four starts.
--Colorado won seven of its last nine games.
--Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
--Under is 3-1-1 in last five Colorado games.
•Padres-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Kennedy is 2-2, 4.50 in his last four starts.
--Vogelsong is 0-3, 6.45 in his last four starts.
--San Diego won eight of its last eleven games.
--Giants lost eight of their last twelve games.
--Over is 4-0-1 in last six Vogelsong starts.
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American League
•Rays-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Archer is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
--Kluber is 4-0, 1.67 in his last four starts.
--Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games.
--Indians won six of their last nine games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Archer starts.
•Orioles-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Tillman is 2-0, 1.93 in his last three starts.
--Hutchison is 1-2, 4.76 in his last four starts.
--Baltimore lost four of its last seven games.
--Blue Jays won three of their last four games.
--Five of last seven Toronto games went over total.
•Twins-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Swarzak is 0-1, 11.42 in his last two starts.
--Porcello is 0-4, 6.51 in his last five starts.
--Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
--Detroit won five of its last seven games.
--Under is 5-0-1 in last six Detroit games.
•Yankees-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Capuano is 0-1, 6.61 in his last four starts.
--Wright is making first '14 start; he allowed three runs in one IP in his one MLB start LY. He was 6-5, 3.42 in 16 minor league starts this year.
--New York won six of its last nine games.
--Red Sox won three of their last four games.
--Five of last seven Yankees games went over the total.
•Athletics-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Kazmir is 0-4, 9.21 in his last six starts.
--Tepesch is starts.
--A's lost 15 of their last 22 games.
--Rangers won 12 of their last 13 games.
--Five of last seven Kazmir starts went over the total.
•Royals-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Guthrie is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.
--Noesi is 0-2, 4.85 in his last four starts.
--Kansas City won four of its last five games.
--White Sox lost last three games, scoring seven runs.
--Six of last nine Royal games went over the total.
•Angels-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Weaver is 3-0, 3.15 in his last three starts.
--Iwakuma is 0-3, 11.25 in his last three starts.
--Angels lost five of their last nine games.
--Seattle lost five of its last six games.
--Six of last nine Weaver starts stayed under the total.
Interleague
•Astros-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Peacock is 1-1, 6.14 in his last three starts.
--Niese is 1-1, 2.14 in his last three starts.
--Houston lost seven of its last nine games.
--Mets won four of their last six games.
--Seven of last ten Houston games stayed under the total.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cleveland Indians Corey Kluber is 19-5 in his team starts against the money line (79.1%) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game over the last two seasons. The right-hand has also been solid during the past two seasons logging a 26-9 ledger against the money line against American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season, along with a 21-6 mark in the second half of the season.
Kluber is getting his final chance to sway AL Cy Young Award voters and is coming off back-to-back 14-strikeout efforts while winning four straight. The 28-year-old is second in the majors with 258 strikeouts and has allowed a total of five runs in 30 1/3 innings over the last four outings. Kluber struck out nine in 6 2/3 frames while surrendering two runs to beat Tampa Bay on May 9th.
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